If, and that’s a big “IF” we see a small gap down tomorrow from some bad economic numbers I’d be a buyer in the early morning. Why? Because all this choppy sideway action is just setting the market up to rally more after they reset the overbought short term charts.
Right now the 60 minute chart is near the bottom on the stochastics and should a morning gap down happen it will quickly be oversold. With that said I don’t see a huge rally up from here on Friday as we are still very overbought on the daily chart.
But the light holiday volume will likely overcome the overboughtness and we’ll see a move to 2010 area next week sometime. If we clear that area then 2025 should be next. However, if 2010 comes on Wednesday just before the ECB speaks (Thursday morning at 7:45 am EST) I’d short it into that announcement to see what happens.
Anything bad from Draghi and the market should tank hard. Will he disappoint? I don’t know for sure of course as I don’t have a crystal ball but considering how overbought we’ll be at that point… and should have cleared out all the bear stops running up to 2006.50 ES, I’ll take that chance that we’ll fall regardless of what is said.
Thanks Casey. Looks like it’s at 7:45 am EST on the 4th if I read it correctly. If we dip some this Thursday or Friday and then rally up to 2010 area by Wednesday at the close September 3rd I’ll be going in very heavily short as it tells me they will likely raise rates in the EU and the markets should tank everywhere.
If nothing much happens then I’ll exit the short Thursday the 4th after his speech and look for a different trade (based on the charts of whether I should be going long or short of course).
But I’ll have to short on Wednesday since they have the meeting at 7:45 am Thursday before the market opens. This one event could very well crash the markets world wide. Traders will then be expecting America to raise rates too what one country does others tend to follow.
On the upside I’m looking for around 11,330 on the NYA (per a FP emailed to me) for a final top with September 4th being the ideal date. This “should” be the top of all the indexes and we should then start down and continue the rest of the year.
Somewhere between 2005-2010 this week is about the area I expect all bears to cave in and go long. At that point I’d look to short it for a 20-30 point pullback. It could fool all of us that are expecting a light volume melt up because of the holiday (Labor Day) weekend. Meaning it could happen today, Wednesday or Thursday… then down into Friday.
Then up next week into September 4th where a big decision will be made that will determine the fate of the market. My guess is that we’ll tank after the 4th as the market won’t be happy with that decision (which I’m sure has already been made as all stock market crashes and rallies are planned well in advance).
The Rams Browns game was played in Cleveland not the STL but my numey post reads better as if it had been played there so just assume that it was. It turns out that hit knocked out Sam Bradford #8, the fragile STL QB, with the 11-8-1987 birthday, for the season. It wasn’t much of a hit but he is done for the season. An analysis of the hits shows that Browns DE #95 hit Bradford #8 with Rams #77 in the picture to the left with apparently #77 being beaten by #95. Very similar to the MNF hit that knocked out Dallas’ #9 back on 10-25-2010, in the game that saw both teams #88s score 5 times…ie5x88. The Giants’ #95 produced the hit in that game.
Trolls on the internet are calling for the Rams to trade for Washington’s #12 COUSINS, the Skins’ backup who is creating a QB controversy in the nation’s capital as he tries to unseat RGIII..973.#10—a little 10-12 controversy.
Thanks. Nice to see Ron Walker is still around.
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The 1900 threshold will be key this autumn. A break of that..and the series of higher lows..will be broken.
I was actually surprised today the upper bollinger on the weekly cycle did not increase.. but still. its 2020s…thats a clear 1% higher… no point shorting anything yet… and besides, labor day next Monday.
That’s what my source says… they will be caught off guard. My contact says we are going to crash this year and will be heading toward 666 into 2015. My thoughts are simple… once we break the rising trendline of support on the weekly chart from 2011 we drop like a rock!
If, and that’s a big “IF” we see a small gap down tomorrow from some bad economic numbers I’d be a buyer in the early morning. Why? Because all this choppy sideway action is just setting the market up to rally more after they reset the overbought short term charts.
Right now the 60 minute chart is near the bottom on the stochastics and should a morning gap down happen it will quickly be oversold. With that said I don’t see a huge rally up from here on Friday as we are still very overbought on the daily chart.
But the light holiday volume will likely overcome the overboughtness and we’ll see a move to 2010 area next week sometime. If we clear that area then 2025 should be next. However, if 2010 comes on Wednesday just before the ECB speaks (Thursday morning at 7:45 am EST) I’d short it into that announcement to see what happens.
Anything bad from Draghi and the market should tank hard. Will he disappoint? I don’t know for sure of course as I don’t have a crystal ball but considering how overbought we’ll be at that point… and should have cleared out all the bear stops running up to 2006.50 ES, I’ll take that chance that we’ll fall regardless of what is said.
Thanks Casey. Looks like it’s at 7:45 am EST on the 4th if I read it correctly. If we dip some this Thursday or Friday and then rally up to 2010 area by Wednesday at the close September 3rd I’ll be going in very heavily short as it tells me they will likely raise rates in the EU and the markets should tank everywhere.
If nothing much happens then I’ll exit the short Thursday the 4th after his speech and look for a different trade (based on the charts of whether I should be going long or short of course).
But I’ll have to short on Wednesday since they have the meeting at 7:45 am Thursday before the market opens. This one event could very well crash the markets world wide. Traders will then be expecting America to raise rates too what one country does others tend to follow.
The ECB have a rate decision annnouncement followed by a Press conference on September 4th:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/calendar?g=world
On the upside I’m looking for around 11,330 on the NYA (per a FP emailed to me) for a final top with September 4th being the ideal date. This “should” be the top of all the indexes and we should then start down and continue the rest of the year.
Somewhere between 2005-2010 this week is about the area I expect all bears to cave in and go long. At that point I’d look to short it for a 20-30 point pullback. It could fool all of us that are expecting a light volume melt up because of the holiday (Labor Day) weekend. Meaning it could happen today, Wednesday or Thursday… then down into Friday.
Then up next week into September 4th where a big decision will be made that will determine the fate of the market. My guess is that we’ll tank after the 4th as the market won’t be happy with that decision (which I’m sure has already been made as all stock market crashes and rallies are planned well in advance).
The Rams Browns game was played in Cleveland not the STL but my numey post reads better as if it had been played there so just assume that it was. It turns out that hit knocked out Sam Bradford #8, the fragile STL QB, with the 11-8-1987 birthday, for the season. It wasn’t much of a hit but he is done for the season. An analysis of the hits shows that Browns DE #95 hit Bradford #8 with Rams #77 in the picture to the left with apparently #77 being beaten by #95. Very similar to the MNF hit that knocked out Dallas’ #9 back on 10-25-2010, in the game that saw both teams #88s score 5 times…ie5x88. The Giants’ #95 produced the hit in that game.
Trolls on the internet are calling for the Rams to trade for Washington’s #12 COUSINS, the Skins’ backup who is creating a QB controversy in the nation’s capital as he tries to unseat RGIII..973.#10—a little 10-12 controversy.
Thanks. Nice to see Ron Walker is still around.
–
The 1900 threshold will be key this autumn. A break of that..and the series of higher lows..will be broken.
I was actually surprised today the upper bollinger on the weekly cycle did not increase.. but still. its 2020s…thats a clear 1% higher… no point shorting anything yet… and besides, labor day next Monday.
When this weekly rising wedge breaks it’s going to fall off a cliff: http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/312846787
What rising support?
What level will that be end Oct?
That’s what my source says… they will be caught off guard. My contact says we are going to crash this year and will be heading toward 666 into 2015. My thoughts are simple… once we break the rising trendline of support on the weekly chart from 2011 we drop like a rock!