It’s still unclear on the coming bounce high but I’m just not seeing 1960-1970 at this point. When the bull market was roaring it was common to see a wave 1 down followed by a wave 2 up that retraced either 61.8% of the move or even 78.6%… but I strongly believe the bull market run is over with now.
That implies that the wave 2 bounces won’t be a high and should be either 23.6%, 38.2% or possibly 50%, as they are now met with overhead downward pressure. If we only do a 23.6% move up then that level is around 1925 SPX. If it’s a 38.2% move then 1937-1938 is likely. And a 50% move up would be around 1958 SPX.
I don’t think we’ll get any higher then 50% so there no point mentioning the levels above there. If I had to place odds I’d give 38.2% the highest odds (50% chance), then next would be the 50% level (30% chance) and finally the 28.6% level (20% chance).
On the 60 minute chart there is a gap that could be filled from Monday the 4th at 1938.99 with Tuesday opening at 1935.17 SPX. If we do the 38.2% move up that gap should be filled. Odds are good that we’ll close green today and then rally on Monday of next week with a peak on Tuesday morning… where I’d look to get short if this plays out as expected?
There was either a flash crash in ROLL today or there is a fake print over at stock charts right now. They released earnings this morning it looks like so the prints might have been made pre-market but unlikely. Yahoo fin doesn’t have the stock trading below 54 today.
ROLL of course is a highly occultic term. ROLL TIDE BAMA!!!! This is how things ROLL!!!
Hmmm… at this point all I can see is way too many bears onboard this train. Since today is Thursday and they seem to put in a low on the Thursday or Friday prior to option expiration week (which is next Friday) I’m thinking we will rally tomorrow, Monday and possibly early Tuesday before we top out again.
Also considering the amount of bearishness I suspect is out there now it’s likely this rally will go higher then expected. While that 1940 area is resistance I think there are many bears’ stops sitting above it. I’m guessing that we’ll see that original target of 1960… possibly 1970 by Tuesday of next week.
I don’t know the coming high but it should take out the stops above 1940 area I’d think. Everything just looks so bearish now… and you know they won’t let the bears on this wave 3 down. I won’t go long as that’s against the trend and risky but I’ll wait until next week before I look to go short.
It could happen by the close Friday, which that tells me that the usual “Bullish Option Expiration” isn’t likely to happen this time around. We should go down next week from the look and feel of the market right now.
EWK (Belgium) precariously hanging by a thread to its lower downtrending BB. In tribute to the summer of fun, IF THIS IS TUESDAY, IT MUST BE BELGIUM, I shall focus on the Belgium ETF since an esteemed contributor over at DEs has brought it to my attention. Tomorrow, is 37 days since Belgium eliminated the US tourists from the World Cup. Haven’t seen Hercules yet featuring Belgium star Ian McShane but did see A Most Wanted Man which was a total snorefest. Seriously, that movie was putting me to sleep. Very poor pacing and editing by the “anointed ” artist who brought you Depeche Mode’s 1987 videos. Some cliched storytelling and acting as well although the actors overall were very good and the cinematography was good. It had the feel of an adult film but was poorly constructed. Plus as I have already mentioned it had the plotline, that only an Obozo-ite could feel was enthralling.
I’ve got a new Depeche Mode video from this artist that is more apropos for the times we live in. When things slow down, I might post a link.
That German stock market is looking to be in a very precarious position. Basically all of the European indices are down at their lower daily and weekly BBs while the US indices are more mild mannered. In fact, the SP is almost following the first leg pattern down of the lesser grand ritual right down to a basically unchanged close today right at the lower BB. That close on 9-12 produced a pop for a few days but who is leading the way? The US or Europe. Deutsche Bank has been hammered over the past month and made more new 52 week lows today. EUFN in a smilar position but did put in a hollow bar today.
There is an ECB meeting tomorrow that nobody is talking about. Do they announce QE to the nth degree that gets Germany bent out of shape. We survived the 9th of AV and a little 69 year anniversary today. A little scary when there is a Mars-Jupiter square occurring. In conjunction with the heliacal rising of Sirius. And as we approach Tebow’s 27th birthday.
It’s still unclear on the coming bounce high but I’m just not seeing 1960-1970 at this point. When the bull market was roaring it was common to see a wave 1 down followed by a wave 2 up that retraced either 61.8% of the move or even 78.6%… but I strongly believe the bull market run is over with now.
That implies that the wave 2 bounces won’t be a high and should be either 23.6%, 38.2% or possibly 50%, as they are now met with overhead downward pressure. If we only do a 23.6% move up then that level is around 1925 SPX. If it’s a 38.2% move then 1937-1938 is likely. And a 50% move up would be around 1958 SPX.
I don’t think we’ll get any higher then 50% so there no point mentioning the levels above there. If I had to place odds I’d give 38.2% the highest odds (50% chance), then next would be the 50% level (30% chance) and finally the 28.6% level (20% chance).
On the 60 minute chart there is a gap that could be filled from Monday the 4th at 1938.99 with Tuesday opening at 1935.17 SPX. If we do the 38.2% move up that gap should be filled. Odds are good that we’ll close green today and then rally on Monday of next week with a peak on Tuesday morning… where I’d look to get short if this plays out as expected?
Yahoo has the opening tick as the low of the day at 53.52. Earnings were released today and that’s it for the news.
This print you mean?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=roll
Looks real to me? You sure they didn’t have some merger news that got changed or something?
There was either a flash crash in ROLL today or there is a fake print over at stock charts right now. They released earnings this morning it looks like so the prints might have been made pre-market but unlikely. Yahoo fin doesn’t have the stock trading below 54 today.
ROLL of course is a highly occultic term. ROLL TIDE BAMA!!!! This is how things ROLL!!!
Hmmm… at this point all I can see is way too many bears onboard this train. Since today is Thursday and they seem to put in a low on the Thursday or Friday prior to option expiration week (which is next Friday) I’m thinking we will rally tomorrow, Monday and possibly early Tuesday before we top out again.
Also considering the amount of bearishness I suspect is out there now it’s likely this rally will go higher then expected. While that 1940 area is resistance I think there are many bears’ stops sitting above it. I’m guessing that we’ll see that original target of 1960… possibly 1970 by Tuesday of next week.
I don’t know the coming high but it should take out the stops above 1940 area I’d think. Everything just looks so bearish now… and you know they won’t let the bears on this wave 3 down. I won’t go long as that’s against the trend and risky but I’ll wait until next week before I look to go short.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=!GT20SPX&p=D&b=3&g=1&id=p18930922334&a=349546011
I think we might get up to only around 1940 SPX now as the market looks
too weak to make it up to 1960 area as I previously thought. This chart
shows about what I’m thinking will happen now:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=29&id=p48344622727&a=335493930&r=870
It could happen by the close Friday, which that tells me that the usual “Bullish Option Expiration” isn’t likely to happen this time around. We should go down next week from the look and feel of the market right now.
EWK (Belgium) precariously hanging by a thread to its lower downtrending BB. In tribute to the summer of fun, IF THIS IS TUESDAY, IT MUST BE BELGIUM, I shall focus on the Belgium ETF since an esteemed contributor over at DEs has brought it to my attention. Tomorrow, is 37 days since Belgium eliminated the US tourists from the World Cup. Haven’t seen Hercules yet featuring Belgium star Ian McShane but did see A Most Wanted Man which was a total snorefest. Seriously, that movie was putting me to sleep. Very poor pacing and editing by the “anointed ” artist who brought you Depeche Mode’s 1987 videos. Some cliched storytelling and acting as well although the actors overall were very good and the cinematography was good. It had the feel of an adult film but was poorly constructed. Plus as I have already mentioned it had the plotline, that only an Obozo-ite could feel was enthralling.
I’ve got a new Depeche Mode video from this artist that is more apropos for the times we live in. When things slow down, I might post a link.
A certain little indicator is racing through no mans land although its component did have an uptick today.
That German stock market is looking to be in a very precarious position. Basically all of the European indices are down at their lower daily and weekly BBs while the US indices are more mild mannered. In fact, the SP is almost following the first leg pattern down of the lesser grand ritual right down to a basically unchanged close today right at the lower BB. That close on 9-12 produced a pop for a few days but who is leading the way? The US or Europe. Deutsche Bank has been hammered over the past month and made more new 52 week lows today. EUFN in a smilar position but did put in a hollow bar today.
There is an ECB meeting tomorrow that nobody is talking about. Do they announce QE to the nth degree that gets Germany bent out of shape. We survived the 9th of AV and a little 69 year anniversary today. A little scary when there is a Mars-Jupiter square occurring. In conjunction with the heliacal rising of Sirius. And as we approach Tebow’s 27th birthday.
Here’s a chart of what I see coming for the SPX: http://screencast.com/t/KmxoyTZLg