I get the feeling they will chop around all day into the close and make a bear flag going into tomorrow. Possibly Yellen says something at the FOMC that the market doesn’t like and will therefore allow this C wave down to continue?
Most FOMC days are positive, but maybe it’s time for a negative one? Of course they won’t blame it on Yellen but on the sanctions instead.
Yes, you are correct. I think we are starting that larger wave C down to the 1940 SPX area. Should be small bounces along the way as this will likely be an ugly move down.
I’m going to just wait patiently to see if there’s any bounces later today. If so then I’ll take a short position but right now I’m not doing anything as it’s like trying to catch a falling knife and I don’t want to get cut again…. LOL
Well, I had to bail on that position at a loss gang. You can’t win them all I guess. I sold out for .25 cent and paid .57 cents. So number 8 was a loss, but the first 7 were winners. I’ll wait to see if we have a bounce as this looks to be a C wave down coming now. It could go to that 1940 area?
WOW… nice move up so far! I was expecting this to happen on Tuesday and end on Wednesday but I have to say that if this continues into the close I’ll flip my opinion on a top for Tuesday/Wednesday and say it will top today at the open Tuesday. Then We should drop again for another lower low.
Needless to say I’ll be selling my longs today if we continue and going short into tomorrow. Probably a half position instead in case there is a brief gap up in the morning before we go back down again. I see a “possible” FP on the SPY from Friday of 198.70… so if that’s hit I’m out of my longs and going short.
Ok, I think we’ve put in the low for the day. It looked like a final 5th wave down or C wave down, which should have completed the whole move. Now we should go up to start the wave 1 and then back down some into the close for the wave 2 down. Then the wave 3 up should start on Tuesday.
It went a little lower then I was expecting but I’m still long (underwater on it of course, but nothing last forever). I had 7 winners in a row and this is my first losing trade… that’s if I sold now. But I’m still holding as I expect it to become a winner by Wednesday with the FOMC meeting.
Of course it would have been nice if I had shorted this move down and then got long today, but I missed it. You can’t win them all I guess. I’m just happy to have had 7 in a row and possibly an 8th if it goes up to 2000 this week. Riding this out though hasn’t be fun and isn’t for the weak stomach.
Options can swing wildly and be down 50% one day and up 200% the next. They are huge profit makers or money stealer’s. Even if I end up winning on this trade it’s still a loser in my mind as I did not take the short on Thursday and missed the best entry for the long today.
Hopefully I’ll be more accurate on picking the top of this market later this week or early next week. I’m looking for just under 2000 (maybe 1997 SPX) on the low side and on the high side I’m looking for 2015-2020 SPX. A clear break of 2000 means we are likely going to the high side target. If we don’t take out 2000 by the close this Wednesday then that could be all we get?
While I’m not expecting Yellen to say something negative I also don’t see anything positive from her either. So while everyone is expecting 2000 SPX a failure to get there would probably cause another larger wave down to start. If we clear it then they will run the bears stops all the way up to the higher target and then start the next move down.
This next move down should be a nice one with 80-120 SPX points likely. I’d say we’ll be seeing that 1940’s area (or lower) for sure on that trip down. So let’s see what happens on Wednesday for a clue on the next move. Just based on the charts I’m kinda leaning toward a high just slightly under 2000 instead of the higher target range, but we’ll just have to wait and see.
From the looks of the charts and the futures Sunday night I’d say the worst of the selling is likely over now. Monday should be a choppy day as they carve out a bottom. While we could still go a little lower and even close negative this support line the market is resting on seems to want to hold.
So I’d expect them to open up in the morning flat to slightly up and then dip back down early on. Then chop the rest of the day not really gaining much ground on the upside or downside. The close could be slightly positive or negative. If this happens as I expect then Tuesday we could see a big rally start up as the oversold charts will have turned back up and will be ready to move higher.
Wednesday we got the FOMC meeting, so barring that Janet Yellen doesn’t say something stupid to tank the market I’d expect most of that day to be sideways going into the 2:30pm meeting. Then we could see a move higher again into the close as most FOMC days are positive with the close usually being near the high for the day.
If 2000 SPX is broken during this next rally attempt then I’d look for 2015-2020 for a high before we rollover again and see some decent selling. The selling should be a nice 5% correction before we turn back up into late August and early September.
But for now this bull still looks strong and doesn’t want to give up anymore ground to the bears in the overnight futures and by tomorrow we could even see them turn it positive by the open. The bears used up a lot on the MACD’s, Histogram Bars, and Stochastic last Friday and actually got short term oversold.
While it’s possible we could have another move wave down in the market Monday/Tuesday it’s not looking likely now. We should see a rally back up to near the high again first (and most likely we’ll break it this time).
Remember, Monday is “Mutual Fund Monday” so we should see the big institutions start buying to put that new money into the system. Then you have Wednesday’s FOMC meeting which we have around 80-90% of all meetings ending up closing positive and sparking a rally. Very few of them have tanked the market afterwards.
You have the SPX still trying to get to 2000, the Nasdaq trying to get to 4500 and the Dow wanting to take back 17,000… so while I’m a bear at heart I’m bullish right now on this week’s outlook (at least the first half of the week).
Best spot to short in my opinion… http://screencast.com/t/N5UMoGEjyc
agreed that I wouldn’t jump in now, I’m already (still) short so just keeping that going for now
I get the feeling they will chop around all day into the close and make a bear flag going into tomorrow. Possibly Yellen says something at the FOMC that the market doesn’t like and will therefore allow this C wave down to continue?
Most FOMC days are positive, but maybe it’s time for a negative one? Of course they won’t blame it on Yellen but on the sanctions instead.
Yes, you are correct. I think we are starting that larger wave C down to the 1940 SPX area. Should be small bounces along the way as this will likely be an ugly move down.
I’m going to just wait patiently to see if there’s any bounces later today. If so then I’ll take a short position but right now I’m not doing anything as it’s like trying to catch a falling knife and I don’t want to get cut again…. LOL
I think it’s south from here on out today
Well, I had to bail on that position at a loss gang. You can’t win them all I guess. I sold out for .25 cent and paid .57 cents. So number 8 was a loss, but the first 7 were winners. I’ll wait to see if we have a bounce as this looks to be a C wave down coming now. It could go to that 1940 area?
Not sure if anyone is reading these comments anymore but I think we’ll hit 1990 SPX today.
WOW… nice move up so far! I was expecting this to happen on Tuesday and end on Wednesday but I have to say that if this continues into the close I’ll flip my opinion on a top for Tuesday/Wednesday and say it will top today at the open Tuesday. Then We should drop again for another lower low.
Needless to say I’ll be selling my longs today if we continue and going short into tomorrow. Probably a half position instead in case there is a brief gap up in the morning before we go back down again. I see a “possible” FP on the SPY from Friday of 198.70… so if that’s hit I’m out of my longs and going short.
Ok, I think we’ve put in the low for the day. It looked like a final 5th wave down or C wave down, which should have completed the whole move. Now we should go up to start the wave 1 and then back down some into the close for the wave 2 down. Then the wave 3 up should start on Tuesday.
It went a little lower then I was expecting but I’m still long (underwater on it of course, but nothing last forever). I had 7 winners in a row and this is my first losing trade… that’s if I sold now. But I’m still holding as I expect it to become a winner by Wednesday with the FOMC meeting.
Of course it would have been nice if I had shorted this move down and then got long today, but I missed it. You can’t win them all I guess. I’m just happy to have had 7 in a row and possibly an 8th if it goes up to 2000 this week. Riding this out though hasn’t be fun and isn’t for the weak stomach.
Options can swing wildly and be down 50% one day and up 200% the next. They are huge profit makers or money stealer’s. Even if I end up winning on this trade it’s still a loser in my mind as I did not take the short on Thursday and missed the best entry for the long today.
Hopefully I’ll be more accurate on picking the top of this market later this week or early next week. I’m looking for just under 2000 (maybe 1997 SPX) on the low side and on the high side I’m looking for 2015-2020 SPX. A clear break of 2000 means we are likely going to the high side target. If we don’t take out 2000 by the close this Wednesday then that could be all we get?
While I’m not expecting Yellen to say something negative I also don’t see anything positive from her either. So while everyone is expecting 2000 SPX a failure to get there would probably cause another larger wave down to start. If we clear it then they will run the bears stops all the way up to the higher target and then start the next move down.
This next move down should be a nice one with 80-120 SPX points likely. I’d say we’ll be seeing that 1940’s area (or lower) for sure on that trip down. So let’s see what happens on Wednesday for a clue on the next move. Just based on the charts I’m kinda leaning toward a high just slightly under 2000 instead of the higher target range, but we’ll just have to wait and see.
From the looks of the charts and the futures Sunday night I’d say the worst of the selling is likely over now. Monday should be a choppy day as they carve out a bottom. While we could still go a little lower and even close negative this support line the market is resting on seems to want to hold.
So I’d expect them to open up in the morning flat to slightly up and then dip back down early on. Then chop the rest of the day not really gaining much ground on the upside or downside. The close could be slightly positive or negative. If this happens as I expect then Tuesday we could see a big rally start up as the oversold charts will have turned back up and will be ready to move higher.
Wednesday we got the FOMC meeting, so barring that Janet Yellen doesn’t say something stupid to tank the market I’d expect most of that day to be sideways going into the 2:30pm meeting. Then we could see a move higher again into the close as most FOMC days are positive with the close usually being near the high for the day.
If 2000 SPX is broken during this next rally attempt then I’d look for 2015-2020 for a high before we rollover again and see some decent selling. The selling should be a nice 5% correction before we turn back up into late August and early September.
But for now this bull still looks strong and doesn’t want to give up anymore ground to the bears in the overnight futures and by tomorrow we could even see them turn it positive by the open. The bears used up a lot on the MACD’s, Histogram Bars, and Stochastic last Friday and actually got short term oversold.
While it’s possible we could have another move wave down in the market Monday/Tuesday it’s not looking likely now. We should see a rally back up to near the high again first (and most likely we’ll break it this time).
Remember, Monday is “Mutual Fund Monday” so we should see the big institutions start buying to put that new money into the system. Then you have Wednesday’s FOMC meeting which we have around 80-90% of all meetings ending up closing positive and sparking a rally. Very few of them have tanked the market afterwards.
You have the SPX still trying to get to 2000, the Nasdaq trying to get to 4500 and the Dow wanting to take back 17,000… so while I’m a bear at heart I’m bullish right now on this week’s outlook (at least the first half of the week).