From the looks of the charts and the futures Sunday night I’d say the worst of the selling is likely over now. Monday should be a choppy day as they carve out a bottom. While we could still go a little lower and even close negative this support line the market is resting on seems to want to hold.
So I’d expect them to open up in the morning flat to slightly up and then dip back down early on. Then chop the rest of the day not really gaining much ground on the upside or downside. The close could be slightly positive or negative. If this happens as I expect then Tuesday we could see a big rally start up as the oversold charts will have turned back up and will be ready to move higher.
Wednesday we got the FOMC meeting, so barring that Janet Yellen doesn’t say something stupid to tank the market I’d expect most of that day to be sideways going into the 2:30pm meeting. Then we could see a move higher again into the close as most FOMC days are positive with the close usually being near the high for the day.
If 2000 SPX is broken during this next rally attempt then I’d look for 2015-2020 for a high before we rollover again and see some decent selling. The selling should be a nice 5% correction before we turn back up into late August and early September.
But for now this bull still looks strong and doesn’t want to give up anymore ground to the bears in the overnight futures and by tomorrow we could even see them turn it positive by the open. The bears used up a lot on the MACD’s, Histogram Bars, and Stochastic last Friday and actually got short term oversold.
While it’s possible we could have another move wave down in the market Monday/Tuesday it’s not looking likely now. We should see a rally back up to near the high again first (and most likely we’ll break it this time).
Remember, Monday is “Mutual Fund Monday” so we should see the big institutions start buying to put that new money into the system. Then you have Wednesday’s FOMC meeting which we have around 80-90% of all meetings ending up closing positive and sparking a rally. Very few of them have tanked the market afterwards.
You have the SPX still trying to get to 2000, the Nasdaq trying to get to 4500 and the Dow wanting to take back 17,000… so while I’m a bear at heart I’m bullish right now on this week’s outlook (at least the first half of the week).
We didn’t get the 1977.77 on the SPX but the chart are still quite bearish right now. Possibly we gap down slightly on Monday and rally the rest of the day into Tuesday. But we shouldn’t see another new high I don’t think.
Today is the last 777 day of this month and if by some strange coincidence they close the SPX at 1977.77 and/or the SPY at 197.77 then this Christine Lagarde video prediction could really happen over this weekend. I certainly hope it doesn’t…
This move down broke the wave count I had and has changed the picture from bullish to bearish now. What I now see in the charts is a lower low coming after a bounce. How high the bounce goes is unknown? But if they rally this back up hard into the close today (not looking likely, but possible) that would setup Monday to be a down day… and probably a very ugly one!
I think too many people got long expecting 2000 SPX to be hit and SkyNet sold off today to take out all those longs. Now there are lot’s of shorts that need to be taken out above 1990 SPX but that’s a long was off now.
I think that if they only retrace half or so of today’s move down that we’ll likely continue up on Monday (Mutual Fund Monday as they like to call it). However… if by some strange chance we recover almost all of the move up and close just under the high yesterday then Monday could be a big down day!
Why? Because it would have created a wave 1 down today and a wave 2 up into the close with a wave 3 down to follow. The charts certainly tell me that after a bounce up finishes there is another move down coming. The question is… when?
Well, if you retrace 99% of the move all today then you don’t have any room left to go on the upside as you’ll be in the double top area with a slightly lower high. The 60 minute chart will then be ready to roll back down again and make that wave 3 down.
I know it sounds crazy as a close up near (but under) yesterday’s high will look very bullish as it will put in a long bottoming tail candle on the daily chart but it’s not supported by the MACD’s and Histogram bars that say we’ll need a lower low to create the positive divergence.
And if this happens you’d expect all the bears to have bailed out thinking there will be another higher high next week as we’ll close very near the high yesterday. It’s not likely they’ll be very many people shorting over the weekend. In fact I’d say most will go long expecting a new high into Monday and the rest of the week.
But the charts will be telling a different story. You close near the high today and you’ll not have and bears short on Monday and nothing but bulls long. That would be the trickiest move of all I believe! No one would expect a big drop on Monday if we close positive today with a full reversal of this down move.
I admit that I wasn’t expecting this far of a drop today as I think I got caught up in the “SPX 2000” mania and ignored what I was seeing in the charts. Yes, I seen this as a possibility but I just didn’t think they’d let it happen. With Yellen speaking next Wednesday for the FOMC meeting and practically all of the FOMC days being a positive day I ignored the charts and assumed they’d manipulate them again and not let it sell off.
But that could be the biggest trick of all? To get everyone bullish into next week and then tank it on Monday. I’m not saying a crash, but simply another lower low then today. The best thing for the bulls is that they retrace a third to half of today’s move down. A full retrace would be very bearish for Monday.
In fact, if we retrace this move entirely I’ll become a big bear for Monday and will flip to a short position. If not, then I’ll hold my longs into Monday and let them see how high they can get it up too? Maybe it’s done and they do go up to 2000+ next week, but that would only happen if they manipulate the charts at this point as another lower low is expected.
I got the 198.5 calls that expire next Friday and sold the 200 calls in a call spread for .57 cents. I missed the low, which was .50 cents as it moved too fast on me.
From the looks of the charts and the futures Sunday night I’d say the worst of the selling is likely over now. Monday should be a choppy day as they carve out a bottom. While we could still go a little lower and even close negative this support line the market is resting on seems to want to hold.
So I’d expect them to open up in the morning flat to slightly up and then dip back down early on. Then chop the rest of the day not really gaining much ground on the upside or downside. The close could be slightly positive or negative. If this happens as I expect then Tuesday we could see a big rally start up as the oversold charts will have turned back up and will be ready to move higher.
Wednesday we got the FOMC meeting, so barring that Janet Yellen doesn’t say something stupid to tank the market I’d expect most of that day to be sideways going into the 2:30pm meeting. Then we could see a move higher again into the close as most FOMC days are positive with the close usually being near the high for the day.
If 2000 SPX is broken during this next rally attempt then I’d look for 2015-2020 for a high before we rollover again and see some decent selling. The selling should be a nice 5% correction before we turn back up into late August and early September.
But for now this bull still looks strong and doesn’t want to give up anymore ground to the bears in the overnight futures and by tomorrow we could even see them turn it positive by the open. The bears used up a lot on the MACD’s, Histogram Bars, and Stochastic last Friday and actually got short term oversold.
While it’s possible we could have another move wave down in the market Monday/Tuesday it’s not looking likely now. We should see a rally back up to near the high again first (and most likely we’ll break it this time).
Remember, Monday is “Mutual Fund Monday” so we should see the big institutions start buying to put that new money into the system. Then you have Wednesday’s FOMC meeting which we have around 80-90% of all meetings ending up closing positive and sparking a rally. Very few of them have tanked the market afterwards.
You have the SPX still trying to get to 2000, the Nasdaq trying to get to 4500 and the Dow wanting to take back 17,000… so while I’m a bear at heart I’m bullish right now on this week’s outlook (at least the first half of the week).
July 20th has already pasted not so we know that one hasn’t had much affect. The August 15th date though could be a possible top?
The Bradley turn date was July 16th, not the 29th (http://forbestadvice.com/Money/Gurus/DonaldBradley/bradley2014.GIF). But the next on in October could line up with a turn? Hard to say right now?
Bradley turn date on July 29th, no?
Nice analysis, but isn’t we missing that these dates must be ( MUST) in Lunar dates ? That means 20/7/2014 Lunar is 15/08/2014 ?
We didn’t get the 1977.77 on the SPX but the chart are still quite bearish right now. Possibly we gap down slightly on Monday and rally the rest of the day into Tuesday. But we shouldn’t see another new high I don’t think.
Dow numbers added together make 7.
Today is the last 777 day of this month and if by some strange coincidence they close the SPX at 1977.77 and/or the SPY at 197.77 then this Christine Lagarde video prediction could really happen over this weekend. I certainly hope it doesn’t…
This move down broke the wave count I had and has changed the picture from bullish to bearish now. What I now see in the charts is a lower low coming after a bounce. How high the bounce goes is unknown? But if they rally this back up hard into the close today (not looking likely, but possible) that would setup Monday to be a down day… and probably a very ugly one!
I think too many people got long expecting 2000 SPX to be hit and SkyNet sold off today to take out all those longs. Now there are lot’s of shorts that need to be taken out above 1990 SPX but that’s a long was off now.
I think that if they only retrace half or so of today’s move down that we’ll likely continue up on Monday (Mutual Fund Monday as they like to call it). However… if by some strange chance we recover almost all of the move up and close just under the high yesterday then Monday could be a big down day!
Why? Because it would have created a wave 1 down today and a wave 2 up into the close with a wave 3 down to follow. The charts certainly tell me that after a bounce up finishes there is another move down coming. The question is… when?
Well, if you retrace 99% of the move all today then you don’t have any room left to go on the upside as you’ll be in the double top area with a slightly lower high. The 60 minute chart will then be ready to roll back down again and make that wave 3 down.
I know it sounds crazy as a close up near (but under) yesterday’s high will look very bullish as it will put in a long bottoming tail candle on the daily chart but it’s not supported by the MACD’s and Histogram bars that say we’ll need a lower low to create the positive divergence.
And if this happens you’d expect all the bears to have bailed out thinking there will be another higher high next week as we’ll close very near the high yesterday. It’s not likely they’ll be very many people shorting over the weekend. In fact I’d say most will go long expecting a new high into Monday and the rest of the week.
But the charts will be telling a different story. You close near the high today and you’ll not have and bears short on Monday and nothing but bulls long. That would be the trickiest move of all I believe! No one would expect a big drop on Monday if we close positive today with a full reversal of this down move.
I admit that I wasn’t expecting this far of a drop today as I think I got caught up in the “SPX 2000” mania and ignored what I was seeing in the charts. Yes, I seen this as a possibility but I just didn’t think they’d let it happen. With Yellen speaking next Wednesday for the FOMC meeting and practically all of the FOMC days being a positive day I ignored the charts and assumed they’d manipulate them again and not let it sell off.
But that could be the biggest trick of all? To get everyone bullish into next week and then tank it on Monday. I’m not saying a crash, but simply another lower low then today. The best thing for the bulls is that they retrace a third to half of today’s move down. A full retrace would be very bearish for Monday.
In fact, if we retrace this move entirely I’ll become a big bear for Monday and will flip to a short position. If not, then I’ll hold my longs into Monday and let them see how high they can get it up too? Maybe it’s done and they do go up to 2000+ next week, but that would only happen if they manipulate the charts at this point as another lower low is expected.
I got the 198.5 calls that expire next Friday and sold the 200 calls in a call spread for .57 cents. I missed the low, which was .50 cents as it moved too fast on me.