Well gang, obviously we’ve made a new high and broken through that chart I posted before the open. At this point I’m in cash and won’t take any position until I see what happens at the close. If we do not sell off any at all then we have probably put in the low and are on our way up to 2020 SPX into next week.
The pattern it will make will of course be a bull flag and from the looks of the technical’s in the charts there is clear signs of this market wanting to turn back up on the larger time frame like the daily chart. While it could fool us and drop lower we really haven’t experienced too many fakeouts in the past related to the bulls.
On the other hand they seems to always fakeout the bears with selloffs that get bought right back up erasing all the gains the bears may have gotten. So I’m leaning bullish if we hold these gains into the close. A selloff into the close will put me back into a neutral “wait and see” mode.
Hmmm… Tuesday, July 22nd, 2014 is 0+7+2+2+2+0+1+4=18… and 1+8=9 (or if you leave the 22 as a whole you get 0+7+[22]+2+0+1+4=36… and 3+6=9 still). Completion of a move Tuesday?
I exited my shorts today for .60 cents as I’m not sure about Tuesday? The rally back up was more then I’d expected. So I’m flat going into tomorrow and would look to short it if it gaps up to just below the prior high of 197.91 SPY.
Should it gap down then I will have missed the move as it will certainly cost more to buy back my position. I could have sold for close to .90 cents (not sure exactly how much it was?) near the 196.50 area low. But I held on because I was expecting a weak wave 2 up (with the gap down being the wave 1).
So I missed a lot of profit on that one but you can’t know everything I guess. I bought the position Friday for .50 cents so I’m happy with the profit I did take. In the event of a gap down I may or may not re-enter the short position. It will depend on how high the quick morning gap fill rally back up takes us? If it’s the wave 3 down I’m expecting then that quick move back up in the first 10 minutes should be shallow and brief.
Meaning I might not get a good entry and would have to pay more for the same put spread. I’ll have too think on it before re-entering as I’m still kicking myself for not selling at the 197.50 SPY support area. Selling is my hardest thing to master…. LOL!
Yes, we are in the choppy wave 2 up now I think. Could last all day? Might retest the downward sloping trendline even? Hard too tell right now. Pattern wise we have an inverted head and shoulders, which is bullish of course.
But, if it fails (and I think it will) we should drop in a wave 3 down (inside a larger wave C down) that should take us below the 1944, 1952, and 1955 bottoms to clear out all the stops below. Then I guess we’ll resume the uptrend.
Still holding my 20 SPY Sept 195 puts of course. Got plenty of time..but what I need to see from here. for a nice payday.. is the Dow closing lower and lower BELOW 17,000..and get the SPX below 1950.- We shall see…odds look about 50/50 for that right at the moment.
I’m looking for 5 waves down in total. I believe we’ve had the wave 1 down now and should be having a choppy (ABC) wave 2 up for the next few hours. Then at some point it should rollover and start the wave 3 down.
Then the wave 4 up and 5 down should happen into Tuesday from the looks of it. Tuesday is usually a tricky day… hence the nickname “Turn-around Tuesday”. So if the 1955 SPX low is tested today and breaks then I think it will bleed into Tuesday morning and produce that low in the 1925-1930 area, at which point the bottom would be in and the market would “turn-around” and start a rally as the name suggests.
We have very high odds of going higher tomorrow I’m afraid. I took a small long position as I’m expecting a run up to that 2000 hear soon.
77 close….? maybe lol
Well gang, obviously we’ve made a new high and broken through that chart I posted before the open. At this point I’m in cash and won’t take any position until I see what happens at the close. If we do not sell off any at all then we have probably put in the low and are on our way up to 2020 SPX into next week.
The pattern it will make will of course be a bull flag and from the looks of the technical’s in the charts there is clear signs of this market wanting to turn back up on the larger time frame like the daily chart. While it could fool us and drop lower we really haven’t experienced too many fakeouts in the past related to the bulls.
On the other hand they seems to always fakeout the bears with selloffs that get bought right back up erasing all the gains the bears may have gotten. So I’m leaning bullish if we hold these gains into the close. A selloff into the close will put me back into a neutral “wait and see” mode.
Before the bell update: http://screencast.com/t/Gy3nIw4gybDG
Hmmm… Tuesday, July 22nd, 2014 is 0+7+2+2+2+0+1+4=18… and 1+8=9 (or if you leave the 22 as a whole you get 0+7+[22]+2+0+1+4=36… and 3+6=9 still). Completion of a move Tuesday?
I exited my shorts today for .60 cents as I’m not sure about Tuesday? The rally back up was more then I’d expected. So I’m flat going into tomorrow and would look to short it if it gaps up to just below the prior high of 197.91 SPY.
Should it gap down then I will have missed the move as it will certainly cost more to buy back my position. I could have sold for close to .90 cents (not sure exactly how much it was?) near the 196.50 area low. But I held on because I was expecting a weak wave 2 up (with the gap down being the wave 1).
So I missed a lot of profit on that one but you can’t know everything I guess. I bought the position Friday for .50 cents so I’m happy with the profit I did take. In the event of a gap down I may or may not re-enter the short position. It will depend on how high the quick morning gap fill rally back up takes us? If it’s the wave 3 down I’m expecting then that quick move back up in the first 10 minutes should be shallow and brief.
Meaning I might not get a good entry and would have to pay more for the same put spread. I’ll have too think on it before re-entering as I’m still kicking myself for not selling at the 197.50 SPY support area. Selling is my hardest thing to master…. LOL!
Thanks for stopping by Shanky. I think we have one more move down tomorrow morning and then the rally back up should resume.
Yes, we are in the choppy wave 2 up now I think. Could last all day? Might retest the downward sloping trendline even? Hard too tell right now. Pattern wise we have an inverted head and shoulders, which is bullish of course.
But, if it fails (and I think it will) we should drop in a wave 3 down (inside a larger wave C down) that should take us below the 1944, 1952, and 1955 bottoms to clear out all the stops below. Then I guess we’ll resume the uptrend.
Still holding my 20 SPY Sept 195 puts of course. Got plenty of time..but what I need to see from here. for a nice payday.. is the Dow closing lower and lower BELOW 17,000..and get the SPX below 1950.- We shall see…odds look about 50/50 for that right at the moment.
I’m looking for 5 waves down in total. I believe we’ve had the wave 1 down now and should be having a choppy (ABC) wave 2 up for the next few hours. Then at some point it should rollover and start the wave 3 down.
Then the wave 4 up and 5 down should happen into Tuesday from the looks of it. Tuesday is usually a tricky day… hence the nickname “Turn-around Tuesday”. So if the 1955 SPX low is tested today and breaks then I think it will bleed into Tuesday morning and produce that low in the 1925-1930 area, at which point the bottom would be in and the market would “turn-around” and start a rally as the name suggests.