looks like you may get that squeeze to 1945-50. good call.- i’ve been hitting many of the other sites on your blogroll the last week or so. most are pretty quiet right now as far as comments, with the exception of daneric’s elliot wave blog – . the only problem being…is most of the posts are bickering insults and false bravado among 2 or 3 regulars…and very little short to medium term ‘predictions’. – anyway,thanks. looking forward to your next post.
We still have NOT topped yet to produce a nice 2-4% down move. Since we are chopping sideways today and yesterday it’s clear that this is a bull flag of some kind and it should pop higher later this week to clear out all the bears shorting right now.
The typical move higher is around 25-30 points from what I’ve noticed in the past. Therefore I’m expecting a squeeze higher to 1945-1950 as soon as this bull flag plays out. If I had to guess on what day it would happen I’d say this Thursday from the Jobless Claims number.
It should be an exhaustion gap higher to clear out stops currently being put in. Then I think we’ll see it rollover that day and start our 2-4% correction. Now since there is NO negative divergence yet on the daily chart that tells me we should still see a higher high before it starts a larger 10%+ correction.
So after this one is done I think we’ll rally into mid-July and make a higher high to finally put in the high for this year (well, most likely it will be), which will likely be above 2000 on the SPX. But on the short term there is money to be made on this move down as it could test that weekly rising trendline from 2011 again… if it’s a big drop.
If it’s a 2-4% drop (which is what I’m expecting) then we might only hit the rising trendline from February of 2013, which is around 1850-1855 area, whereas the other trendline is around 1750 area and is probably too far down to go if they plan on going up to another higher high into mid-July (and I believe they are).
Therefore I would not look for any move below that higher rising trendline to happen. That’s the area I’d expect a bottom to occur and then a rally into the July 4th holiday and into the middle of July. So again, this Thursday I’m looking for a gap up from the rigged Jobless Claims numbers and then a sell off to start that should last until around 1850 area before bottoming.
Naturally things can change along the way and I’ll post those changes when I see them, but for now that’s the best guess I have based on what I see in the charts and important ritual dates.
Like Ewan McGregor although he’s technically too old for the part but never heard of the director or most of the supporting cast. Stellan Skaarsgard doesn’t seem to have the physicality for the Dima role. It’s a little worrisome. I don’t know if they’re going to get the little details right.
Federer was bounced from the French Open yesterday. I don’t know if LeCarre’s crystal ball was foggy or if it was ritual appropriate. It did occur on Sunday as in the book. Now for the official corporate takeover/ shareholders’ meeting where one mafioso is forced to sell to the kingpin mafioso. Sounds about right for the Clippers ritual except I don’t know if the NBA board of governance meeting scheduled for tomorrow June 3 is still on when the owners would have voted 29-0 to banish money bubble icon Donald Sterling from the NBA.
And then the Russian theme of Dima pitted against the 7 Vors who are unofficially sanctioned by the Kremlin is very topical for the times. Except the takeover and subsequent denouement took place in Switzerland. We’ll have to watch for any developments taking place in Switzerland (although we did have a nice metals mining takeover there after the French Open 2 years ago that fit the theme pretty well)
Doing a split like that is a “tell-tale” sign of weakness up at this level. It’s running out of steam and a lower price should give it a little more of a boost higher. It could actually hit a double top from 9/21/2012 at 676.81, but I think it will pullback first (probably at the same time the market does).
The market could go higher into mid-July but we are overdue for a pullback and I think we’ll see it this week. My best guess is that we’ll top on Monday or Tuesday morning. Then I’m expecting a 2-4% pullback to start.
looks like you may get that squeeze to 1945-50. good call.- i’ve been hitting many of the other sites on your blogroll the last week or so. most are pretty quiet right now as far as comments, with the exception of daneric’s elliot wave blog – . the only problem being…is most of the posts are bickering insults and false bravado among 2 or 3 regulars…and very little short to medium term ‘predictions’. – anyway,thanks. looking forward to your next post.
Here’s a chart showing those trendlines: http://screencast.com/t/whV0QFNA
We still have NOT topped yet to produce a nice 2-4% down move. Since we are chopping sideways today and yesterday it’s clear that this is a bull flag of some kind and it should pop higher later this week to clear out all the bears shorting right now.
The typical move higher is around 25-30 points from what I’ve noticed in the past. Therefore I’m expecting a squeeze higher to 1945-1950 as soon as this bull flag plays out. If I had to guess on what day it would happen I’d say this Thursday from the Jobless Claims number.
It should be an exhaustion gap higher to clear out stops currently being put in. Then I think we’ll see it rollover that day and start our 2-4% correction. Now since there is NO negative divergence yet on the daily chart that tells me we should still see a higher high before it starts a larger 10%+ correction.
So after this one is done I think we’ll rally into mid-July and make a higher high to finally put in the high for this year (well, most likely it will be), which will likely be above 2000 on the SPX. But on the short term there is money to be made on this move down as it could test that weekly rising trendline from 2011 again… if it’s a big drop.
If it’s a 2-4% drop (which is what I’m expecting) then we might only hit the rising trendline from February of 2013, which is around 1850-1855 area, whereas the other trendline is around 1750 area and is probably too far down to go if they plan on going up to another higher high into mid-July (and I believe they are).
Therefore I would not look for any move below that higher rising trendline to happen. That’s the area I’d expect a bottom to occur and then a rally into the July 4th holiday and into the middle of July. So again, this Thursday I’m looking for a gap up from the rigged Jobless Claims numbers and then a sell off to start that should last until around 1850 area before bottoming.
Naturally things can change along the way and I’ll post those changes when I see them, but for now that’s the best guess I have based on what I see in the charts and important ritual dates.
EURUSD Chart update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/06/eurusd-chart-analysis.html
Looks like they’re making a film version of Our Kind of Traitor with Ewan McGregor as the lead. Some photos of the shoot in Switzerland:
http://www.justjared.com/2014/04/21/ewan-mcgregor-looks-serious-as-our-kind-of-traitor/
Like Ewan McGregor although he’s technically too old for the part but never heard of the director or most of the supporting cast. Stellan Skaarsgard doesn’t seem to have the physicality for the Dima role. It’s a little worrisome. I don’t know if they’re going to get the little details right.
Federer was bounced from the French Open yesterday. I don’t know if LeCarre’s crystal ball was foggy or if it was ritual appropriate. It did occur on Sunday as in the book. Now for the official corporate takeover/ shareholders’ meeting where one mafioso is forced to sell to the kingpin mafioso. Sounds about right for the Clippers ritual except I don’t know if the NBA board of governance meeting scheduled for tomorrow June 3 is still on when the owners would have voted 29-0 to banish money bubble icon Donald Sterling from the NBA.
And then the Russian theme of Dima pitted against the 7 Vors who are unofficially sanctioned by the Kremlin is very topical for the times. Except the takeover and subsequent denouement took place in Switzerland. We’ll have to watch for any developments taking place in Switzerland (although we did have a nice metals mining takeover there after the French Open 2 years ago that fit the theme pretty well)
Doing a split like that is a “tell-tale” sign of weakness up at this level. It’s running out of steam and a lower price should give it a little more of a boost higher. It could actually hit a double top from 9/21/2012 at 676.81, but I think it will pullback first (probably at the same time the market does).
Facebook and QQQ Charts: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2014/06/facebook-and-qqq-resistance-levels.html
The market could go higher into mid-July but we are overdue for a pullback and I think we’ll see it this week. My best guess is that we’ll top on Monday or Tuesday morning. Then I’m expecting a 2-4% pullback to start.
dr. dre and jimmy iovene sure liked that 3 billion dollar price tag.