Re-looking at the various indexes, time frames and charts I’d would add that “if” this top trendline is hit on the rising channel (also a bear flag) on the QQQ’s I’d look to short the market even though we are expected to have light volume this week.
I think the QQQ’s will fall to the 80 area in the coming weeks and into next month before we have a nice bounce. From looking at the top trendline I’m guessing it will be around 88.75-89.00 when hit either tomorrow or Wednesday. That’s about the only short I’m interested in at the moment.
Considering the expected light volume later this week due to the upcoming holiday weekend I’m expecting nothing but chop between now and then. I don’t think we’ll make a new high but I won’t rule it out completely. And of course I don’t think we’ll take out the current low.
This could actually play out as I suggested it might a week or so ago. Meaning we could still put in a top on the 29th. Now the question is… will it be a slightly higher high, slightly lower or a double top? I don’t know? I’m not to excited about a short position or a long position at the moment.
Support has been broken which lowers the odds of a new higher high in the 1925 SPX area being hit. While anything is possible (as we know how they favor the bulls and manipulate the charts in that direction) I’m going to neutral stance right now.
Meaning I think we’ve sold off quite a bit now and shouldn’t have too much more downside left, so going short here is probably too late. But I’m not comfortable going long either with some much technical damage being done.
I have to admit I really wasn’t expecting this big of a move down… at least not yet. But again, until that rising trendline from 2011 is broken the bulls are still in control. It’s just that right not it’s looking more and more like they are tiring out and gives the bears some food for once.
I’d give this market no more then the next 2 weeks before we see that breakdown happen (assuming we don’t make another higher high, and at this point the odds are much lower). The only thing that bugs me right now is how low the volume is today (and yesterday).
With such low volume this market appears to be more of a technical move down instead of the big institutions selling… which clearly they aren’t doing today! That one thing leaves the door open for another push higher as I do think once you see them start selling they’ll be a very big dump happen. Until then we could be just swinging up and down for awhile longer.
Today looks like some choppy sidesway wave 4 down, which implies we should have one more wave 5 up yet to come. If so, then that rising trendline coming in around the 1925 SPX is still a possible upside target.
It really should depend on how many bears’ stops are sitting right above the 1900 area as if it’s not very many then I doubt they get up past 1900-1915 SPX, but if it’s a lot then it should squeeze up to that rising trendline before stopping.
I would short any hit of that rising trendline the first time to see if it holds. There’s a 80-90% chance that the first hit will produce a pullback. Now will it go back up after the brief pullback and try a second time to break through? I don’t know? But we’ll cross that road when we get there. For right now we are still in a sideways wave 4 down and wave 5 up has yet to start.
The weekly chart is certainly trying to get positive on it’s histogram bars so possibly we’ll see that happen next weeK? Again, while the daily and shorter term charts look bearish the weekly is still holding that rising trendline from 2011 and until it breaks the bulls are still in control.
Re-looking at the various indexes, time frames and charts I’d would add that “if” this top trendline is hit on the rising channel (also a bear flag) on the QQQ’s I’d look to short the market even though we are expected to have light volume this week.
http://screencast.com/t/IKBGeJ9ii
I think the QQQ’s will fall to the 80 area in the coming weeks and into next month before we have a nice bounce. From looking at the top trendline I’m guessing it will be around 88.75-89.00 when hit either tomorrow or Wednesday. That’s about the only short I’m interested in at the moment.
Considering the expected light volume later this week due to the upcoming holiday weekend I’m expecting nothing but chop between now and then. I don’t think we’ll make a new high but I won’t rule it out completely. And of course I don’t think we’ll take out the current low.
This could actually play out as I suggested it might a week or so ago. Meaning we could still put in a top on the 29th. Now the question is… will it be a slightly higher high, slightly lower or a double top? I don’t know? I’m not to excited about a short position or a long position at the moment.
Obtw Red is creating new site
Of course, Mars Jupiter also in the midst of the fray. There was a Saturn Sun opposition on Sunday as well.
Russell 2000 still below its 200 day average.
Quetzi rising just before daybreak alongside the illuminati full moon was quite a sight in the early
morning today. Quetzi also putting in a T-square with Pluto-Sirius conjunct Uranus today.
Quetzi opposed Mars on Sunday, a double ninen like astro signature, but Quetzi currently in the midst of the fray right now.
Took a break on the trollosphere the last several days….need to get acclimated to the noise…no great loss though.
Support has been broken which lowers the odds of a new higher high in the 1925 SPX area being hit. While anything is possible (as we know how they favor the bulls and manipulate the charts in that direction) I’m going to neutral stance right now.
Meaning I think we’ve sold off quite a bit now and shouldn’t have too much more downside left, so going short here is probably too late. But I’m not comfortable going long either with some much technical damage being done.
I have to admit I really wasn’t expecting this big of a move down… at least not yet. But again, until that rising trendline from 2011 is broken the bulls are still in control. It’s just that right not it’s looking more and more like they are tiring out and gives the bears some food for once.
I’d give this market no more then the next 2 weeks before we see that breakdown happen (assuming we don’t make another higher high, and at this point the odds are much lower). The only thing that bugs me right now is how low the volume is today (and yesterday).
With such low volume this market appears to be more of a technical move down instead of the big institutions selling… which clearly they aren’t doing today! That one thing leaves the door open for another push higher as I do think once you see them start selling they’ll be a very big dump happen. Until then we could be just swinging up and down for awhile longer.
The volume is still light, so there’s still good odds of a higher high yet to come. http://screencast.com/t/0gMPkjChpp5o
ES update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/05/es-falling-towards-support-levels.html
Today looks like some choppy sidesway wave 4 down, which implies we should have one more wave 5 up yet to come. If so, then that rising trendline coming in around the 1925 SPX is still a possible upside target.
It really should depend on how many bears’ stops are sitting right above the 1900 area as if it’s not very many then I doubt they get up past 1900-1915 SPX, but if it’s a lot then it should squeeze up to that rising trendline before stopping.
I would short any hit of that rising trendline the first time to see if it holds. There’s a 80-90% chance that the first hit will produce a pullback. Now will it go back up after the brief pullback and try a second time to break through? I don’t know? But we’ll cross that road when we get there. For right now we are still in a sideways wave 4 down and wave 5 up has yet to start.
The weekly chart is certainly trying to get positive on it’s histogram bars so possibly we’ll see that happen next weeK? Again, while the daily and shorter term charts look bearish the weekly is still holding that rising trendline from 2011 and until it breaks the bulls are still in control.