If the dollar yen chart is any indication of the future we should start dropping at the open this morning. Support is at 1875 and 1871 SPX should we fall that far.
Tomorrow could see some EXASperating moves in the markets. A little hanging man action today. Tomorrow, 5-6 is the 77th anniversary of the Hindenburg fiasco and 4 year anniversary of you know what. There have been a few minor change readings lately with one coming on Friday and they seem to work when they do, 2 days into the future.
Of course, another high made on 5-2 ala 2011, 2012 with the 2011 version being the Bin Laden high while Friday featured some geopolitical tensions. Friday also worked as a Lindsay low-low high cycle going back to the 3-6-9 low…..ie 3-6-9 low, 10-04-11 low, 5-02-14 high.
A certain little indicator, Nasdaq version has headed back downward after bouncing near the 0 line but never turning positive and is now making new lows in a very precarious technical position while the NYSE version is lagging/ diverging very badly. It seems obvious that it will be playing catchup to the Nasdaq in quite a dramatic fashion. Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are dithering until it’s time for them to attack their 200 day averages.
Crude oil on the brink of riding its lower BB lower after bouncing off of it today. Need to see the Australian dollar play out in a similar manner.
I’m expecting some downside this week but unfortunately I think we are going to continue to stay in a wide range for another couple of weeks or so… and then I think we’ll drop hard. Will we make a new high? I don’t know but it’s clearly showing signs of institutions dumping their
stock.
That’s why it could take a few more weeks for them to unload at the top. With that said you have to put two and tow together and speculate that the longer we chop sideways (and the closer the range is to the current high) the more people that will be putting stops up
in the low 1900’s… which we all know that SkyNet see’s!
Afterall, SkyNet is like the big ONE Eye on top of the mountain in the “Lord of the Rings” series. It see’s all and will go after those stops before it drops the market. On the other hand if the range is wide and we stay down below the current high by 20 SPX points or more then we might not do anything but a lower high by a point or two?
However, from the looks of the market today it looks like they are staying close to the prior top… which tells me we’ll pierce through it at some point over the next few weeks to clean-out the overhead stops that will be gathering in the low 1900’s in the coming days and weeks.
This projects us out to mid to late May before we start the big move down. Between now and then I’m just expecting some swings up and down but no big commitment in either direction.
That’s possible Amy… but I suspect we’ll have some downside this week first. Then possibly next week we run up and make a new high? We are in a choppy “topping” area right now and this could last for several move weeks.
Meaning we could have a few fairly large down days with rallies just afterwards to recapture the losses. This range of up and down moves just is the big institutions dumping on every rally up. But at some point soon (2-3 weeks?) the “buy the dippers” retail crowd will run out of money and then we’ll see some real selling.
There are many individual stocks that haven’t recovered from the selling 2 weeks ago even though the overall market rallied back up and erased the losses. This is an early sign that the whole market will soon rollover.
Could we make a new high up to 1910-1915 soon? Yeah, it’s possible. But the way the market is acting now it’s clearly having trouble getting through the prior high. However, if the big institutions just don’t dump their shares in this double top area then we could see it breakthrough some higher high, but I don’t think it will.
There’s needs to be some good buying volume from the retail traders in order for the big institutions to sell their shares into. That means we need some good earnings reports to come out this week and next, and it must be from popular companies. We seen Facebook and Apple last week and as soon as the market opened the following day the big boys dumped hard.
Any other time the great earnings from Apple would have rallied the market up 200 Dow points or more, but it just gapped up and crapped down as the institutions used the big buying volume to unload their shares. The stopped selling after the SPX dropped around 20 points from it’s high. At some point they are going to just keep on selling and we’ll see a BIG Move DOWN Happen!
My estimates are that we’ll drop some this week and recover some next week. Then by the second half of May we should see the big selling start. Don’t know when of course but we do have a Legatus meeting starting on the 28th this month, which could be a top of some kind before a big dump?
Maybe between now and then we do some type of wave one down and way two up, which tops out around then and starts our wave 3 down? If we don’t make a new high then we could have already made the wave one and two, but who’s to say that we don’t hit 1900 or so and then start the wave one down and two up into Legatus? I just think we’re going to be in a choppy (wild swing) range for a few more weeks.
Crude oil descending triangle and 200 SMA: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/05/crude-oil-descending-triangle-and-200.html
ES Hourly range: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/05/es-in-range.html
If the dollar yen chart is any indication of the future we should start dropping at the open this morning. Support is at 1875 and 1871 SPX should we fall that far.
Tomorrow could see some EXASperating moves in the markets. A little hanging man action today. Tomorrow, 5-6 is the 77th anniversary of the Hindenburg fiasco and 4 year anniversary of you know what. There have been a few minor change readings lately with one coming on Friday and they seem to work when they do, 2 days into the future.
Of course, another high made on 5-2 ala 2011, 2012 with the 2011 version being the Bin Laden high while Friday featured some geopolitical tensions. Friday also worked as a Lindsay low-low high cycle going back to the 3-6-9 low…..ie 3-6-9 low, 10-04-11 low, 5-02-14 high.
A certain little indicator, Nasdaq version has headed back downward after bouncing near the 0 line but never turning positive and is now making new lows in a very precarious technical position while the NYSE version is lagging/ diverging very badly. It seems obvious that it will be playing catchup to the Nasdaq in quite a dramatic fashion. Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are dithering until it’s time for them to attack their 200 day averages.
Crude oil on the brink of riding its lower BB lower after bouncing off of it today. Need to see the Australian dollar play out in a similar manner.
Chop Chop Chop…
I’m expecting some downside this week but unfortunately I think we are going to continue to stay in a wide range for another couple of weeks or so… and then I think we’ll drop hard. Will we make a new high? I don’t know but it’s clearly showing signs of institutions dumping their
stock.
That’s why it could take a few more weeks for them to unload at the top. With that said you have to put two and tow together and speculate that the longer we chop sideways (and the closer the range is to the current high) the more people that will be putting stops up
in the low 1900’s… which we all know that SkyNet see’s!
Afterall, SkyNet is like the big ONE Eye on top of the mountain in the “Lord of the Rings” series. It see’s all and will go after those stops before it drops the market. On the other hand if the range is wide and we stay down below the current high by 20 SPX points or more then we might not do anything but a lower high by a point or two?
However, from the looks of the market today it looks like they are staying close to the prior top… which tells me we’ll pierce through it at some point over the next few weeks to clean-out the overhead stops that will be gathering in the low 1900’s in the coming days and weeks.
This projects us out to mid to late May before we start the big move down. Between now and then I’m just expecting some swings up and down but no big commitment in either direction.
ES Charts: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/05/es-chart-analysis_5.html
That’s possible Amy… but I suspect we’ll have some downside this week first. Then possibly next week we run up and make a new high? We are in a choppy “topping” area right now and this could last for several move weeks.
Meaning we could have a few fairly large down days with rallies just afterwards to recapture the losses. This range of up and down moves just is the big institutions dumping on every rally up. But at some point soon (2-3 weeks?) the “buy the dippers” retail crowd will run out of money and then we’ll see some real selling.
There are many individual stocks that haven’t recovered from the selling 2 weeks ago even though the overall market rallied back up and erased the losses. This is an early sign that the whole market will soon rollover.
Could we make a new high up to 1910-1915 soon? Yeah, it’s possible. But the way the market is acting now it’s clearly having trouble getting through the prior high. However, if the big institutions just don’t dump their shares in this double top area then we could see it breakthrough some higher high, but I don’t think it will.
There’s needs to be some good buying volume from the retail traders in order for the big institutions to sell their shares into. That means we need some good earnings reports to come out this week and next, and it must be from popular companies. We seen Facebook and Apple last week and as soon as the market opened the following day the big boys dumped hard.
Any other time the great earnings from Apple would have rallied the market up 200 Dow points or more, but it just gapped up and crapped down as the institutions used the big buying volume to unload their shares. The stopped selling after the SPX dropped around 20 points from it’s high. At some point they are going to just keep on selling and we’ll see a BIG Move DOWN Happen!
My estimates are that we’ll drop some this week and recover some next week. Then by the second half of May we should see the big selling start. Don’t know when of course but we do have a Legatus meeting starting on the 28th this month, which could be a top of some kind before a big dump?
Maybe between now and then we do some type of wave one down and way two up, which tops out around then and starts our wave 3 down? If we don’t make a new high then we could have already made the wave one and two, but who’s to say that we don’t hit 1900 or so and then start the wave one down and two up into Legatus? I just think we’re going to be in a choppy (wild swing) range for a few more weeks.
I believe we test new highs this week. We need to close at 1891 for 1910-1915.
EBAY Weekend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/05/ebay-weekend-update.html
Blackberry weekend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/05/blackberry-weekend-update.html