This top today of 1897.28 could be the top as it’s just under the 1900 level that I thought we’d go up to and end the rally. If so, then I’d expect this to start the first wave 1 down and then the wave 2 up should go into either the 11th or 22nd, followed by a nasty wave 3 down.
However, this market could go down to 1800 area and still be in a bullish trend on the weekly chart. So if we go down to that level and hold then that could be all we’ll get on the downside for awhile.
Looking at the charts this wave 1 down could go to the 1850 area and then bounce back up for wave 2, which could be a brief bounce of only 38.2% or something… or a hard “fake out” squeeze to almost another new high. Hard too say which one?
I don’t think there is any positive news out there between now any the 30th when the FED’s are expected to cut another round of stimulus out of the market, so that certainly not something the market will like. Therefore the rally back up could be short.
Since the market always trades in advance (like the old saying “buy the rumor, sell the news” and “sell the rumor, buy the news”) we could also bottom on the 22nd, chop around some with a wave 1 up and wave 2 down just prior to the FED’s meeting on the 30th and then rally in a wave 3 up on the announcement.
Most retail traders will be shorting then as they expect the FED’s to cut again, which they likely will… but SkyNet (the super computer running the market) knows that and will likely squeeze those shorts in a rally on the bad news.
Therefore, we must anticipate that and look for a bottom in that time zone. Of course if we bottom around 1800 on the 11th for example and then rally into the 22nd then I’d expect the next move down to break the weekly support from 2011 (starting at 1074 and currently at 1800), which implies a much larger drop with the high 1600 area as the next target.
But for now I think it’s safe to short the bounces until 1800 area and then re-check again to see what the charts look like and what day it is, as the time frame for this to happen seems likely for the period between now and the coming FOMC meeting on the 29th/30th of this month.
What I’d suspect then Permabear is to start the selling at some point in April and then bottom into May where the “sell in May and go away” slogan will be pump all over the MSM news outlets… but it won’t crash and will instead start the final Primary Wave 5 up that should last into 2015 on the short side and 2016 on the long side.
Naturally this coming correction will then be labeled Primary Wave 4 down as we are still in Primary Wave 3 up from the 1074 low in 2011. How long will Primary 5 up last? Don’t know? But I really REALLY think we MUST have some major crazy new high (DOW 30,000?) before we finally top out.
Could it do it by January 2015 when Lindsey Williams says the Obamacare plan goes into effect for all companies and people, (whereas now it’s apparently not in “mandatory” effect for companies), I guess it’s possible.
But we all know how they like to go to extremes on the market, which tells me something will come up and delay it another year and we’ll see the real top in 2016. Note that 2+0+1+6=9, which is completion… just more food for thought.
Yes Permabear I’m still expecting a correction but not a crash like 1987 was. Could it be a “flash crash”… sure. But I’m only looking for around 10% minimum to 20% maximum on the downside in total. How fast it drops is something I don’t know? But no 1987 crash… not yet at least. Maybe next year?
Time frame on it… hard too say? I’d look for this coming April 11th (double eleven day as it’s a 22) and April 22nd as it’s 33 and also a double eleven. Remember that the May 22nd date in 2013 was a 33 and another double eleven. It also was in the middle of a Legatus meeting so odds of a turn there were HUGE (which produced about a 10% drop).
This time we don’t have any Legatus meeting around it, but odds of a turn there still are HIGH, so I’d look for both dates, with the 22nd being the preferred one. Also, the 18th is option expiration for the monthly’s (which is usually a bullish week), so that too increases the odds for the 22nd versus the 11th… but watch both.
One more thing… since we are in a “magic 7 year” as we were told by Christine Lagarde I’d look for seven’s too as possibly she’s indicating that elevens aren’t as important this year and that seven’s will be the new one to pay attention too. Just food for thought as we don’t really know either way…
I guess my math was off by a point yesterday so today’s high for the SP at 1893.9 minus 666.79 should be 1227.11…..that looks like a better number. The close at 1888.76 is another interesting number and today’s high has the 93 both forward and reversed.
The dollar as expected thrusted upward over and out of the triangle that has been forming the last couple of weeks. Didn’t see the news but there was ECB meeting earlier today.
SP and Dow did an interesting thing today. Made slight new intraday highs followed by negative closes with the Dow down slightly at the end. This was seen at the secondary high in double ninen. Nasdaq and Russell 2000 were battered hard today in comparison. Dow’s high was 16604? SC’s chart doesn’t show it there but close enough to 16606?
There was a minor change reading yesterday.
Copper was in the identical situation yesterday as it was back in late September 2008, bouncing up to its 50 RSI reading, beneath both its 50 and 200 day averages with the 50 beneath the 200 and the spread between the two about the same.
HYIP Finance High profitable returns 10000% of your deposited
– Automatic payout directly to your e-currency account.
– Minimum spend is only $300.
– You may make an additional spend as many times as you dlike.
– Payments made 7 days per week.
– DDoS protection powered by Boost-Server
– Use our referral program and earn up to 12.00% of referral deposits!
– Support 24/7.
– High profitable returns.
Invest Now http://www.mclaininvestment.com
Investment Insurance http://www.payinghyiponline.com/McLain%20Finance.html
FACEBOOK Chart update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/04/facebook-weekend-update.html
This top today of 1897.28 could be the top as it’s just under the 1900 level that I thought we’d go up to and end the rally. If so, then I’d expect this to start the first wave 1 down and then the wave 2 up should go into either the 11th or 22nd, followed by a nasty wave 3 down.
However, this market could go down to 1800 area and still be in a bullish trend on the weekly chart. So if we go down to that level and hold then that could be all we’ll get on the downside for awhile.
Looking at the charts this wave 1 down could go to the 1850 area and then bounce back up for wave 2, which could be a brief bounce of only 38.2% or something… or a hard “fake out” squeeze to almost another new high. Hard too say which one?
I don’t think there is any positive news out there between now any the 30th when the FED’s are expected to cut another round of stimulus out of the market, so that certainly not something the market will like. Therefore the rally back up could be short.
Since the market always trades in advance (like the old saying “buy the rumor, sell the news” and “sell the rumor, buy the news”) we could also bottom on the 22nd, chop around some with a wave 1 up and wave 2 down just prior to the FED’s meeting on the 30th and then rally in a wave 3 up on the announcement.
Most retail traders will be shorting then as they expect the FED’s to cut again, which they likely will… but SkyNet (the super computer running the market) knows that and will likely squeeze those shorts in a rally on the bad news.
Therefore, we must anticipate that and look for a bottom in that time zone. Of course if we bottom around 1800 on the 11th for example and then rally into the 22nd then I’d expect the next move down to break the weekly support from 2011 (starting at 1074 and currently at 1800), which implies a much larger drop with the high 1600 area as the next target.
But for now I think it’s safe to short the bounces until 1800 area and then re-check again to see what the charts look like and what day it is, as the time frame for this to happen seems likely for the period between now and the coming FOMC meeting on the 29th/30th of this month.
http://screencast.com/t/kYKrcJhGTX
What I’d suspect then Permabear is to start the selling at some point in April and then bottom into May where the “sell in May and go away” slogan will be pump all over the MSM news outlets… but it won’t crash and will instead start the final Primary Wave 5 up that should last into 2015 on the short side and 2016 on the long side.
Naturally this coming correction will then be labeled Primary Wave 4 down as we are still in Primary Wave 3 up from the 1074 low in 2011. How long will Primary 5 up last? Don’t know? But I really REALLY think we MUST have some major crazy new high (DOW 30,000?) before we finally top out.
Could it do it by January 2015 when Lindsey Williams says the Obamacare plan goes into effect for all companies and people, (whereas now it’s apparently not in “mandatory” effect for companies), I guess it’s possible.
But we all know how they like to go to extremes on the market, which tells me something will come up and delay it another year and we’ll see the real top in 2016. Note that 2+0+1+6=9, which is completion… just more food for thought.
Hmm, I suppose we might max out in late April, but regardless, this rally is getting old.
Just reflect on the fact that this is month’ 31 UP , since the Oct’2011 low of sp’1074.
*one little thing the bears do have to look forward to is another QE-taper at the April’ 30 FOMC.
Every dollar less of QE-pomo is going to remove a little bit more of the underlying market bid.
—
Thanks for the detailed list of ideas, I do appreciate the reply.
Yes Permabear I’m still expecting a correction but not a crash like 1987 was. Could it be a “flash crash”… sure. But I’m only looking for around 10% minimum to 20% maximum on the downside in total. How fast it drops is something I don’t know? But no 1987 crash… not yet at least. Maybe next year?
Time frame on it… hard too say? I’d look for this coming April 11th (double eleven day as it’s a 22) and April 22nd as it’s 33 and also a double eleven. Remember that the May 22nd date in 2013 was a 33 and another double eleven. It also was in the middle of a Legatus meeting so odds of a turn there were HUGE (which produced about a 10% drop).
This time we don’t have any Legatus meeting around it, but odds of a turn there still are HIGH, so I’d look for both dates, with the 22nd being the preferred one. Also, the 18th is option expiration for the monthly’s (which is usually a bullish week), so that too increases the odds for the 22nd versus the 11th… but watch both.
One more thing… since we are in a “magic 7 year” as we were told by Christine Lagarde I’d look for seven’s too as possibly she’s indicating that elevens aren’t as important this year and that seven’s will be the new one to pay attention too. Just food for thought as we don’t really know either way…
…but what about May?
You know as well as anyone the bulls face a wall in May.
We remember the sharp washout in 2010, and the initial peak in May of 2011 – to be followed by the major down wave of late July-August.
2012 and 13…completely minor moves…
So…what about this late spring/summer?
As long as these stories are all over the main stream media I wouldn’t be looking for any huge drop… http://marketsblog.usatoday.com/2014/04/02/is-a-1987-type-market-crash-37-days-away/
SC now has the SP close at 1888.77
I guess my math was off by a point yesterday so today’s high for the SP at 1893.9 minus 666.79 should be 1227.11…..that looks like a better number. The close at 1888.76 is another interesting number and today’s high has the 93 both forward and reversed.
The dollar as expected thrusted upward over and out of the triangle that has been forming the last couple of weeks. Didn’t see the news but there was ECB meeting earlier today.
SP and Dow did an interesting thing today. Made slight new intraday highs followed by negative closes with the Dow down slightly at the end. This was seen at the secondary high in double ninen. Nasdaq and Russell 2000 were battered hard today in comparison. Dow’s high was 16604? SC’s chart doesn’t show it there but close enough to 16606?
There was a minor change reading yesterday.
Copper was in the identical situation yesterday as it was back in late September 2008, bouncing up to its 50 RSI reading, beneath both its 50 and 200 day averages with the 50 beneath the 200 and the spread between the two about the same.
HYIP Finance High profitable returns 10000% of your deposited
– Automatic payout directly to your e-currency account.
– Minimum spend is only $300.
– You may make an additional spend as many times as you dlike.
– Payments made 7 days per week.
– DDoS protection powered by Boost-Server
– Use our referral program and earn up to 12.00% of referral deposits!
– Support 24/7.
– High profitable returns.
Invest Now
http://www.mclaininvestment.com
Investment Insurance
http://www.payinghyiponline.com/McLain%20Finance.html