Getting close to a breakout new high, which should hit some time next week I think. If it’s early in the week then I’d think we’d be in the 1890 area, but it could be later in the week and be closer to the 1910 zone.
I’d look for 1890 area on “Turn Around Tuesday” and/or the 1910 zone on Thursday. The problem is that the weekly chart is still bullish, but in overbought territory. So even if we top next week and start to drop we could fall all the way down to the rising trendline on the weekly (around 1790-1800) and as long as it held the bulls would still be in control.
But, that’s about a 100 point drop, which is still a very nice move down. In the past moves down that averaged 80-100 points took 18-20 calendar days, so I’d expect the same thing here. However, even if the support holds the charts should incur enough technical damage to allow them to break after the bounce off the trendline ends.
My best guess is that we’ll top out next Thursday and then start the 18-20 day drop to the 1790-1800 area. Then bounce for awhile and drop again later in April breaking the rising trendline of support from October 2012 (around 1074 SPX then). At that point we could safely assume that Primary Wave 4 down has started.
Harvard with the upset of Cincinatti earlier in the day in the NCAA tournament. Harvard once again with the 12-5 upset in the tournament. The STATUE OF 3 LIES reveals the Truth!!!!!
Harvard on the 376 year cycle according the Statue of 3 Lies but missed the 377 year cycle by a year. It looks like Bitcoin played the part of the tulip in the 377 year cycle but technically it’s still active. 377===314, PI. I need to reacquaint myself with some Social Network dialogue.
1987 icon Rick Pitino and his defending champ Louisville Tigers were almost upset by his protege’s Manhattan team but it looks like they are being set up for a loss in a rematch with Witchita State next week. WS probably should be the defending champ except for the 1987 ritual as in last year’s Final 4 match up Louisville apparently was allowed to mug the Shockers with impunity something which I noticed in the finals against Michigan. 1987 champ Indiana didn’t even make the tournament this year so denouement is possible before the 2014 tournament ends.
Anyway, for the markets today’s “big” upday featured slightly negative breadth sending a certain little indicator on its continued southward trek. Transports were down as apparently Fedex has terrible earnings and predicted terrible winter conditions for the rest of year in their earnings guidance. Retail stocks were down and the nasdaq and russell 2000 had weak updays. Dollar continued its rally and is nearing its upper BB. Nikkei is also in a precarious condition dropping down to its lower BB last night with the lower band flaring open. $hgx index(housing) doing the same thing—down on the day as well.
Popgun’s 38th birthday is coming up but I like the 37 number better….might need to revisit some of his Superbowl stats but can they compare to his record breaking 55 tds for the year.
We’ve spent too much time in the 1880 SPX area, which means there’s a lot of bear stops just slightly above that zone. Even though the charts are bearish right now I still think “SkyNet” will sweep up above that zone and clear out those stops before we drop.
Possibly we chop it up until Monday from the looks of it. With Quadruple Witching this Friday for OPEX I’m not expecting a big move either way. Then they should hammer out a clear trend (down of course) starting next week, with even a ‘possible’ gap down on Monday?
The problem is that we have the daily chart wanting to go back up on from oversold stochastic but the MACD’s are overbought. The histogram bars are in oversold conditions pointing up.
The shorter term charts are in a similar fashion. This makes for a choppy market with moves up and down for awhile longer before going down for a big move. So I wouldn’t take a big position either way just yet. Great for day traders though, but looking for a multi-day swing move isn’t something I see here yet.
I’m not 100% convinced that there’s still not some higher high yet to come before we drop hard. But, I’m also not convinced that we have started the big move down already. My best guess is that we won’t see a clear direction until next week. I think we need 3-6 more days for the daily chart to get overbought and ready to drop. Hopefully the weekly chart will also be ready to break the support line.
Huge move up in the dollar today and I see no one mentioning it. The TD count finally worked with it. I believe it got to the exhaustion 21 point on the doji day on Monday. That’s probably the most bearish confirming indicator. First crude oil topped in a similar pattern, more recently gold, and now in reverse the dollar, or the euro in the topping manner. Dollar also finished above its 20 day average/mid bollinger band line. SP at its intraday low took out its last 15+ something hourly candles…basically every candle for the week except the opening monday candle.
A certain component of a certain little indicator went negative today after bouncing into positive territory yesterday but the indicator is still in deeply positive territory, generally not an area for a crash but let’s see what transpires.
hey red, well, we held the line of 1875..and we’re on the way.
I would say weekly support is the lower weekly bol’, that is currently 1760…not too far away from the Feb’ low of 1737.. a mere 1.3% higher.
Were we to hit 1760/50..I’d be open to a bigger HS formation that opens up 1625/1575 in a few months.
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At that point, would you not think Yellen will reverse, and increase QE?
Getting close to a breakout new high, which should hit some time next week I think. If it’s early in the week then I’d think we’d be in the 1890 area, but it could be later in the week and be closer to the 1910 zone.
I’d look for 1890 area on “Turn Around Tuesday” and/or the 1910 zone on Thursday. The problem is that the weekly chart is still bullish, but in overbought territory. So even if we top next week and start to drop we could fall all the way down to the rising trendline on the weekly (around 1790-1800) and as long as it held the bulls would still be in control.
But, that’s about a 100 point drop, which is still a very nice move down. In the past moves down that averaged 80-100 points took 18-20 calendar days, so I’d expect the same thing here. However, even if the support holds the charts should incur enough technical damage to allow them to break after the bounce off the trendline ends.
My best guess is that we’ll top out next Thursday and then start the 18-20 day drop to the 1790-1800 area. Then bounce for awhile and drop again later in April breaking the rising trendline of support from October 2012 (around 1074 SPX then). At that point we could safely assume that Primary Wave 4 down has started.
Harvard with the upset of Cincinatti earlier in the day in the NCAA tournament. Harvard once again with the 12-5 upset in the tournament. The STATUE OF 3 LIES reveals the Truth!!!!!
Harvard on the 376 year cycle according the Statue of 3 Lies but missed the 377 year cycle by a year. It looks like Bitcoin played the part of the tulip in the 377 year cycle but technically it’s still active. 377===314, PI. I need to reacquaint myself with some Social Network dialogue.
1987 icon Rick Pitino and his defending champ Louisville Tigers were almost upset by his protege’s Manhattan team but it looks like they are being set up for a loss in a rematch with Witchita State next week. WS probably should be the defending champ except for the 1987 ritual as in last year’s Final 4 match up Louisville apparently was allowed to mug the Shockers with impunity something which I noticed in the finals against Michigan. 1987 champ Indiana didn’t even make the tournament this year so denouement is possible before the 2014 tournament ends.
Anyway, for the markets today’s “big” upday featured slightly negative breadth sending a certain little indicator on its continued southward trek. Transports were down as apparently Fedex has terrible earnings and predicted terrible winter conditions for the rest of year in their earnings guidance. Retail stocks were down and the nasdaq and russell 2000 had weak updays. Dollar continued its rally and is nearing its upper BB. Nikkei is also in a precarious condition dropping down to its lower BB last night with the lower band flaring open. $hgx index(housing) doing the same thing—down on the day as well.
Popgun’s 38th birthday is coming up but I like the 37 number better….might need to revisit some of his Superbowl stats but can they compare to his record breaking 55 tds for the year.
We’ve spent too much time in the 1880 SPX area, which means there’s a lot of bear stops just slightly above that zone. Even though the charts are bearish right now I still think “SkyNet” will sweep up above that zone and clear out those stops before we drop.
Yeah..could chop….but..hey..the line is 1875…so..we can’t go above that.
I gotta guess the low 1840s tomorrow..and maybe a weekly close in the 1850s.
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All things considered.. it looks weak on those weekly charts!
Possibly we chop it up until Monday from the looks of it. With Quadruple Witching this Friday for OPEX I’m not expecting a big move either way. Then they should hammer out a clear trend (down of course) starting next week, with even a ‘possible’ gap down on Monday?
The weekly chart flashed a provisional warning last week.
We’ve already broken back <1858 again…which is the SECOND weekly warning.
Now, bears need 1875…bulls should be increasingly concerned.
The problem is that we have the daily chart wanting to go back up on from oversold stochastic but the MACD’s are overbought. The histogram bars are in oversold conditions pointing up.
The shorter term charts are in a similar fashion. This makes for a choppy market with moves up and down for awhile longer before going down for a big move. So I wouldn’t take a big position either way just yet. Great for day traders though, but looking for a multi-day swing move isn’t something I see here yet.
I’m not 100% convinced that there’s still not some higher high yet to come before we drop hard. But, I’m also not convinced that we have started the big move down already. My best guess is that we won’t see a clear direction until next week. I think we need 3-6 more days for the daily chart to get overbought and ready to drop. Hopefully the weekly chart will also be ready to break the support line.
Huge move up in the dollar today and I see no one mentioning it. The TD count finally worked with it. I believe it got to the exhaustion 21 point on the doji day on Monday. That’s probably the most bearish confirming indicator. First crude oil topped in a similar pattern, more recently gold, and now in reverse the dollar, or the euro in the topping manner. Dollar also finished above its 20 day average/mid bollinger band line. SP at its intraday low took out its last 15+ something hourly candles…basically every candle for the week except the opening monday candle.
A certain component of a certain little indicator went negative today after bouncing into positive territory yesterday but the indicator is still in deeply positive territory, generally not an area for a crash but let’s see what transpires.
hey red, well, we held the line of 1875..and we’re on the way.
I would say weekly support is the lower weekly bol’, that is currently 1760…not too far away from the Feb’ low of 1737.. a mere 1.3% higher.
Were we to hit 1760/50..I’d be open to a bigger HS formation that opens up 1625/1575 in a few months.
–
At that point, would you not think Yellen will reverse, and increase QE?
Gold chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/03/gold-engulfing-pattern.html