Ok… from the looks of the charts right now we need the Non-Farm Payroll report (released tomorrow morning before the open at 8:30 am EST) to be view positive and cause a squeeze up to above the high this morning on the ES Futures, which was 1930.
Since this event is about the only “market mover” news (nothing the rest of Friday to move it much), it must take out 1930 to force a rally from bears shorting today. Failure to do so mean the top of the rally was the 1930 level and there’s not likely going to be any move higher to 1940-1950 anytime soon.
There is another falling trendline around 1925 ES right now, that will probably be around 1920 tomorrow morning. If it breaks that with the NFP report news then possibly the rally continues. If it doesn’t break it then again, the top of this rally was likely in today at the 1930 ES high (1927 SPX).
I’m NOT looking for any longs as the upside is limited in my opinion. I’m only looking for the right shorting spot, which could be at the open tomorrow if we don’t breakthrough the falling trendline of resistance (again, about 1925 now and should be 1920 tomorrow).
So we look to short tomorrow’s open if they can’t get a bear squeeze going and take out today’s premarket ES Futures high of 1930 (which should then push up to 1940-1950). If they get the squeeze then we look for that higher level to short. I’d just say that we are 90-95% done with the rally up and should be looking for short entries into a low that I think we’ll see next Thursday or Friday.
Consider how high we have rallied so far I’m only looking for a small pullback. Probably in the 1990 SPX area, or as low as 1890 SPX… but not much lower I don’t think. Either way, it’s likely a B wave down with the gap up being the A wave up. So we should see the C wave up into later today and tomorrow.
Anyway, ideally I am expecting for the SP to test its 8-24 lows tomorrow and then finish mildly down then bounce hard the following day. Or it could bounce hard tomorrow….really a reflexive bounce play off the lower BB…..or it could crash into 10-2 but I think that is the least likely scenario.
My Nikkei 1990 scenario could still be in play though the current market has deviated from it somewhat. That spike off the double bottom low would see a fierce bounce to the 1960 area. But that is just one scenario.
They’re also making it look like the 2011 scenario is playing out but we should have seen one more bounce up to the 50 day average before heading to the final lows ala Oct 2011.
Then there is the South Sea Bubble scenario which would see one whopper of a rally tomorrow.
There’s a falling trendline on the SPX that’s around 1925 today and will probably be around 1920 tomorrow. That would be the first level of resistance I’d think it will pause at. Maybe that will be an A wave up? Then a B wave down to come close to retesting the lows but actually it should put in a higher low. That would setup the C wave up to squeeze out the bears shorting at the bottom of the B wave down. Just speculation there of course.
The 3rd scenario seems to be in play… but mixed with some shake out rallies along the way. So part is the 1st scenario with the jagged see-saw pattern, but the other part is the 3rd one as I do see a big gap down crash in the future coming.
Ok… from the looks of the charts right now we need the Non-Farm Payroll report (released tomorrow morning before the open at 8:30 am EST) to be view positive and cause a squeeze up to above the high this morning on the ES Futures, which was 1930.
Since this event is about the only “market mover” news (nothing the rest of Friday to move it much), it must take out 1930 to force a rally from bears shorting today. Failure to do so mean the top of the rally was the 1930 level and there’s not likely going to be any move higher to 1940-1950 anytime soon.
There is another falling trendline around 1925 ES right now, that will probably be around 1920 tomorrow morning. If it breaks that with the NFP report news then possibly the rally continues. If it doesn’t break it then again, the top of this rally was likely in today at the 1930 ES high (1927 SPX).
I’m NOT looking for any longs as the upside is limited in my opinion. I’m only looking for the right shorting spot, which could be at the open tomorrow if we don’t breakthrough the falling trendline of resistance (again, about 1925 now and should be 1920 tomorrow).
So we look to short tomorrow’s open if they can’t get a bear squeeze going and take out today’s premarket ES Futures high of 1930 (which should then push up to 1940-1950). If they get the squeeze then we look for that higher level to short. I’d just say that we are 90-95% done with the rally up and should be looking for short entries into a low that I think we’ll see next Thursday or Friday.
ES Midday Update October 1st, 2015 – http://screencast.com/t/ZV6G9Wym
ES Morning Update October 1st, 2015 – http://screencast.com/t/K3ap68ts1YXn
Consider how high we have rallied so far I’m only looking for a small pullback. Probably in the 1990 SPX area, or as low as 1890 SPX… but not much lower I don’t think. Either way, it’s likely a B wave down with the gap up being the A wave up. So we should see the C wave up into later today and tomorrow.
ES/SPX Morning Update September 30th, 2015 – http://screencast.com/t/tk1vee9oh
Russell 2000 was down 6.66 pts today.
Anyway, ideally I am expecting for the SP to test its 8-24 lows tomorrow and then finish mildly down then bounce hard the following day. Or it could bounce hard tomorrow….really a reflexive bounce play off the lower BB…..or it could crash into 10-2 but I think that is the least likely scenario.
My Nikkei 1990 scenario could still be in play though the current market has deviated from it somewhat. That spike off the double bottom low would see a fierce bounce to the 1960 area. But that is just one scenario.
They’re also making it look like the 2011 scenario is playing out but we should have seen one more bounce up to the 50 day average before heading to the final lows ala Oct 2011.
Then there is the South Sea Bubble scenario which would see one whopper of a rally tomorrow.
There’s a falling trendline on the SPX that’s around 1925 today and will probably be around 1920 tomorrow. That would be the first level of resistance I’d think it will pause at. Maybe that will be an A wave up? Then a B wave down to come close to retesting the lows but actually it should put in a higher low. That would setup the C wave up to squeeze out the bears shorting at the bottom of the B wave down. Just speculation there of course.
SPX Morning Update September 28th, 2015 – http://screencast.com/t/e8JGTxNmvYl
The 3rd scenario seems to be in play… but mixed with some shake out rallies along the way. So part is the 1st scenario with the jagged see-saw pattern, but the other part is the 3rd one as I do see a big gap down crash in the future coming.
WEB BOT info.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJvYrm_EBm0