From Richard Russell when the SPX was 2100 something?
Theory #1 is in play and I really think everyone should be looking down in stead of up.( You haven’t seen TRUE FEAR yet)
I have only two theories; first, the market will decline in a jagged
see-saw pattern, a pattern that creates no fear. The market drops ten
percent and analysts declare that this is the long awaited and long
expected ten percent correction.
But the general market continues to
decline, and investors remain in the market waiting for the inevitable
rally that will conclude the correction. No rally comes, and stocks
continue to decline, suddenly there is a realization that this is no
correction but a bear market, and down goes the bear, taking billion of
shares with him.
The other scenario that I envision is
one day, with no previous warning, the market drops and a huge gap, over
a thousand points in the Dow opens. The authorities close the exchange
for three days and when the market opens, it gaps down again. When the
market finally opens again, thousands of stocks open well below their
previous closes and a bear market is on.
It feels like it wants to flush out today. But right now it’s in between an 1870 SPX double bottom level to go long at for a decent multi-day rally, and a small 20-30 rally up then a drop to 1870 area. Either one is possible, but flushing out first… down to the 1870 area would probably hurt the most traders, and SkyNet loves to do that you know.
That’s one big rally Scott. I don’t see that right now but if we double bottom first then possibly we have a big squeeze up? However, I do expect a lower low… but it might not come until the end of next week where my “turn point” is at (October 9th).
We have the whole blood moon thing Tomorrow night, but closing near the lows like yesterday usually leads to bounces. A big ripper monday would destroy bears
From Richard Russell when the SPX was 2100 something?
Theory #1 is in play and I really think everyone should be looking down in stead of up.( You haven’t seen TRUE FEAR yet)
I have only two theories; first, the market will decline in a jagged
see-saw pattern, a pattern that creates no fear. The market drops ten
percent and analysts declare that this is the long awaited and long
expected ten percent correction.
But the general market continues to
decline, and investors remain in the market waiting for the inevitable
rally that will conclude the correction. No rally comes, and stocks
continue to decline, suddenly there is a realization that this is no
correction but a bear market, and down goes the bear, taking billion of
shares with him.
The other scenario that I envision is
one day, with no previous warning, the market drops and a huge gap, over
a thousand points in the Dow opens. The authorities close the exchange
for three days and when the market opens, it gaps down again. When the
market finally opens again, thousands of stocks open well below their
previous closes and a bear market is on.
It feels like it wants to flush out today. But right now it’s in between an 1870 SPX double bottom level to go long at for a decent multi-day rally, and a small 20-30 rally up then a drop to 1870 area. Either one is possible, but flushing out first… down to the 1870 area would probably hurt the most traders, and SkyNet loves to do that you know.
That’s one big rally Scott. I don’t see that right now but if we double bottom first then possibly we have a big squeeze up? However, I do expect a lower low… but it might not come until the end of next week where my “turn point” is at (October 9th).
looking at 1970 this week.
SPX Morning Update September 28th, 2015 – http://screencast.com/t/iDCzwkVQKx5
ES Futures Morning Update September 28th, 2015 – http://screencast.com/t/a0olKps1F
There are no more bulls left, an indication of a big bounce to last until wed. The S&p may see 1970
We have the whole blood moon thing Tomorrow night, but closing near the lows like yesterday usually leads to bounces. A big ripper monday would destroy bears
ES Futures Late Day Update September 25th, 2015 – http://screencast.com/t/RIlpraNn
I think we are heading up toward the 197 SPY gap fill area between now and Monday.