The patient bear will be rewarded. Failure to make a higher high then this mornings’ high of 1703.74 SPX gives great odds that the high is in today. But considering that there is an FOMC meeting this Wednesday I’d lean more toward waiting until then to short. A double top has about a 80% statistical odds of a reversal.
The amount of the reversal is unknown of course but considering the timing of the FOMC meeting in 2 days and how close we are to the prior 1709 high odds favor Bernanke saying something at that meeting that either tanks the market or causes a breakout new all time high.
So what I’m thinking here is that today’s huge move up was some kind of wave 3 and the choppy sideways action the rest of today (and likely into Tuesday too) will be some kind of wave 4… which leaves a wave 5 up on FOMC day to complete this larger wave B up from 1627 SPX. That implies wave A down was from the 1709 high, and therefore means we have a C wave down coming.
This all assumes we don’t make a new higher high from something Bernanke says on Wednesday. We need to stay under the 1709 current high to keep this pattern. If we make a new high then this wave count is invalid.
But if we fall into a wave C down and head toward the prior 1560 low then the early October high seems unlikely as there won’t likely be enough time left to rally the market back up to over 1709 before my first guess of October 4th, which means we should look for another date later that month.
I’d still like to see a quick pop to 1692 SPX (into the close today or Monday morning) and/or VXX much closer to a double bottom at 14.00… and then I’d say the high is very likely in for awhile.
Tomorrow is Friday the 13th, 705years 11 months from the original Friday the 13th episode but will it be a Black Friday? It doesn’t look that way but maybe it will be for gold which is currently getting hammered. The original Black Friday was approximately 144 years ago +1 or 2 weeks and did see the price of gold get crushed. And Stanley Kubrick did have a Gold room in the Overlook Hotel in the Shining along with the Colorado Room (Colorado the Centennial State–founded in 1876 (913)). Colorado also home to Popgun and Tebowmania. Popgun does square off against little Bro in NYC this weekend in the nationally televised game and check out the last time they faced each other.
In tonite’s NFL game featuring the Sanchito-less Jets against the Patriots in Foxboro, they were flashing some good numerology. The new Jets QB #7 was paired with running back #29 and they were constantly flashing 1929 in the huddle complemented by #84 (which I don’t get). Then saw some plants errr “fans” in the stands wearing Gronk’s #87 next to someone wearing the # 4.
They constantly showed the Jets lineman paired with their 33, 66, 77 numbers or 33, 77,66 #s. Saw a Patriots helmet affixed with the number 77 matched with #12 (Brady’s #12??) which brought me back to the opening scene of the 1978 classic Silent Partner which starts off set in December 1977. (12-77) We see the 14-15 combo immediately in the early bank scene.
We are very close to a top. If it’s not already here then what we are seeing today is a small wave 4 down with one more wave 5 up. The target on it is 1692 or 1699 if they really extend it. I was really expecting a gap up today, which then would have been a great short. But the failure to do so means we could still have one more exhaustion move up tomorrow.
Averaging into short positions still seems wise though, as the next move down is likely going to be a C wave… and it should take out the current low of 1627 and head for 1560 area over the coming weeks.
The patient bear will be rewarded. Failure to make a higher high then this mornings’ high of 1703.74 SPX gives great odds that the high is in today. But considering that there is an FOMC meeting this Wednesday I’d lean more toward waiting until then to short. A double top has about a 80% statistical odds of a reversal.
The amount of the reversal is unknown of course but considering the timing of the FOMC meeting in 2 days and how close we are to the prior 1709 high odds favor Bernanke saying something at that meeting that either tanks the market or causes a breakout new all time high.
So what I’m thinking here is that today’s huge move up was some kind of wave 3 and the choppy sideways action the rest of today (and likely into Tuesday too) will be some kind of wave 4… which leaves a wave 5 up on FOMC day to complete this larger wave B up from 1627 SPX. That implies wave A down was from the 1709 high, and therefore means we have a C wave down coming.
This all assumes we don’t make a new higher high from something Bernanke says on Wednesday. We need to stay under the 1709 current high to keep this pattern. If we make a new high then this wave count is invalid.
But if we fall into a wave C down and head toward the prior 1560 low then the early October high seems unlikely as there won’t likely be enough time left to rally the market back up to over 1709 before my first guess of October 4th, which means we should look for another date later that month.
Apple Weekly Bearish Engulfing: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2013/09/apple-weekly-bearish-engulfing.html
can you PLEASE for the love of all mighty TRANSLATE THAT?
AAPL update, it may trade 465 to 475 for 3 weeks in a row. IBM and BRCM sort of did that already
i’m glad shorts are working.
CNX short worked, WLT fell as well
I’d still like to see a quick pop to 1692 SPX (into the close today or Monday morning) and/or VXX much closer to a double bottom at 14.00… and then I’d say the high is very likely in for awhile.
Tomorrow is Friday the 13th, 705years 11 months from the original Friday the 13th episode but will it be a Black Friday? It doesn’t look that way but maybe it will be for gold which is currently getting hammered. The original Black Friday was approximately 144 years ago +1 or 2 weeks and did see the price of gold get crushed. And Stanley Kubrick did have a Gold room in the Overlook Hotel in the Shining along with the Colorado Room (Colorado the Centennial State–founded in 1876 (913)). Colorado also home to Popgun and Tebowmania. Popgun does square off against little Bro in NYC this weekend in the nationally televised game and check out the last time they faced each other.
In tonite’s NFL game featuring the Sanchito-less Jets against the Patriots in Foxboro, they were flashing some good numerology. The new Jets QB #7 was paired with running back #29 and they were constantly flashing 1929 in the huddle complemented by #84 (which I don’t get). Then saw some plants errr “fans” in the stands wearing Gronk’s #87 next to someone wearing the # 4.
They constantly showed the Jets lineman paired with their 33, 66, 77 numbers or 33, 77,66 #s. Saw a Patriots helmet affixed with the number 77 matched with #12 (Brady’s #12??) which brought me back to the opening scene of the 1978 classic Silent Partner which starts off set in December 1977. (12-77) We see the 14-15 combo immediately in the early bank scene.
ES Chart update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/09/es-chart-update_12.html
We are very close to a top. If it’s not already here then what we are seeing today is a small wave 4 down with one more wave 5 up. The target on it is 1692 or 1699 if they really extend it. I was really expecting a gap up today, which then would have been a great short. But the failure to do so means we could still have one more exhaustion move up tomorrow.
Averaging into short positions still seems wise though, as the next move down is likely going to be a C wave… and it should take out the current low of 1627 and head for 1560 area over the coming weeks.