As you know gang “they” are masters at mis-direction, which tells me one thing… they plan to rally the market to new highs. Obama stating that he won’t negotiate to raise the debt ceiling and the planned leak that Bernanke will likely start to tap are both very negative news for the stock market.
They say that we should tank from that announcement as no more QE money means there’s nothing to keep the market up. This planned release is done to get bears short in front of that meeting I believe. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t drop nicely right after the meeting to lure in more bears.
Then they will rip it back up the rest of the week and into early October. You should all know by now that when “they” announce a lot of negative news they are trying to trap bears so they can go higher. When the news becomes very positive is when you want to be thinking about getting short. So I’m going to change my forecast from starting a C wave (with 1560 area in mind) after this Wednesday to a bear squeeze back up to new highs after a brief sell off just after the minutes are released (to lure in the bears).
The safe trade here is to NOT trade the FOMC day. It should be very wild “if” Bernanke does indeed announce that they will be “tapering” soon. The first reaction move is usually wrong and I believe it will be a nice down move. How low isn’t known but I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t swing 20-30 SPX points that day.
I’ll do a new update when I can Ed, but I still see a huge move down in October. I don’t know the date yet as I’m not sure what they plan to do at this FOMC meeting? If they decide to rally the market up to a new high then the top should come in early October.
If they sell off hard from the meeting this Wednesday and head down toward that prior 1560 area for a C wave then the last move up into October will likely be pushed out until late in the month, likely after Legatus. So what happens after this FOMC meeting will determine the timeline.
The patient bear will be rewarded. Failure to make a higher high then this mornings’ high of 1703.74 SPX gives great odds that the high is in today. But considering that there is an FOMC meeting this Wednesday I’d lean more toward waiting until then to short. A double top has about a 80% statistical odds of a reversal.
The amount of the reversal is unknown of course but considering the timing of the FOMC meeting in 2 days and how close we are to the prior 1709 high odds favor Bernanke saying something at that meeting that either tanks the market or causes a breakout new all time high.
So what I’m thinking here is that today’s huge move up was some kind of wave 3 and the choppy sideways action the rest of today (and likely into Tuesday too) will be some kind of wave 4… which leaves a wave 5 up on FOMC day to complete this larger wave B up from 1627 SPX. That implies wave A down was from the 1709 high, and therefore means we have a C wave down coming.
This all assumes we don’t make a new higher high from something Bernanke says on Wednesday. We need to stay under the 1709 current high to keep this pattern. If we make a new high then this wave count is invalid.
But if we fall into a wave C down and head toward the prior 1560 low then the early October high seems unlikely as there won’t likely be enough time left to rally the market back up to over 1709 before my first guess of October 4th, which means we should look for another date later that month.
Silver Crucial Support Zone: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/09/silver-testing-crucial-support-zone.html
FACEBOOK Trend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/09/facebook-trend-update.html
I guess today was SUMMERS’ END.
Ba da bing!!!! Ba da ding!!!! LMAO
More negative news for the market “Obama: I will not negotiate about raising the debt ceiling” http://www.cnbc.com/id/101031116
As you know gang “they” are masters at mis-direction, which tells me one thing… they plan to rally the market to new highs. Obama stating that he won’t negotiate to raise the debt ceiling and the planned leak that Bernanke will likely start to tap are both very negative news for the stock market.
They say that we should tank from that announcement as no more QE money means there’s nothing to keep the market up. This planned release is done to get bears short in front of that meeting I believe. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t drop nicely right after the meeting to lure in more bears.
Then they will rip it back up the rest of the week and into early October. You should all know by now that when “they” announce a lot of negative news they are trying to trap bears so they can go higher. When the news becomes very positive is when you want to be thinking about getting short. So I’m going to change my forecast from starting a C wave (with 1560 area in mind) after this Wednesday to a bear squeeze back up to new highs after a brief sell off just after the minutes are released (to lure in the bears).
The safe trade here is to NOT trade the FOMC day. It should be very wild “if” Bernanke does indeed announce that they will be “tapering” soon. The first reaction move is usually wrong and I believe it will be a nice down move. How low isn’t known but I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t swing 20-30 SPX points that day.
I’ll do a new update when I can Ed, but I still see a huge move down in October. I don’t know the date yet as I’m not sure what they plan to do at this FOMC meeting? If they decide to rally the market up to a new high then the top should come in early October.
If they sell off hard from the meeting this Wednesday and head down toward that prior 1560 area for a C wave then the last move up into October will likely be pushed out until late in the month, likely after Legatus. So what happens after this FOMC meeting will determine the timeline.
CRUDE Oil chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/09/crude-oil-chart-analysis.html
Hey Red, is Oct Crash is in the cards? 10/4 is the first 11th day in Oct, do you think is safe to short there?
The failure of the market to react negatively is worrisome for the bears in my opinion.
Fed taper likely to be announced this week: El-Erian http://www.cnbc.com/id/101036631
The patient bear will be rewarded. Failure to make a higher high then this mornings’ high of 1703.74 SPX gives great odds that the high is in today. But considering that there is an FOMC meeting this Wednesday I’d lean more toward waiting until then to short. A double top has about a 80% statistical odds of a reversal.
The amount of the reversal is unknown of course but considering the timing of the FOMC meeting in 2 days and how close we are to the prior 1709 high odds favor Bernanke saying something at that meeting that either tanks the market or causes a breakout new all time high.
So what I’m thinking here is that today’s huge move up was some kind of wave 3 and the choppy sideways action the rest of today (and likely into Tuesday too) will be some kind of wave 4… which leaves a wave 5 up on FOMC day to complete this larger wave B up from 1627 SPX. That implies wave A down was from the 1709 high, and therefore means we have a C wave down coming.
This all assumes we don’t make a new higher high from something Bernanke says on Wednesday. We need to stay under the 1709 current high to keep this pattern. If we make a new high then this wave count is invalid.
But if we fall into a wave C down and head toward the prior 1560 low then the early October high seems unlikely as there won’t likely be enough time left to rally the market back up to over 1709 before my first guess of October 4th, which means we should look for another date later that month.