Anyway, ideally I am expecting for the SP to test its 8-24 lows tomorrow and then finish mildly down then bounce hard the following day. Or it could bounce hard tomorrow….really a reflexive bounce play off the lower BB…..or it could crash into 10-2 but I think that is the least likely scenario.
My Nikkei 1990 scenario could still be in play though the current market has deviated from it somewhat. That spike off the double bottom low would see a fierce bounce to the 1960 area. But that is just one scenario.
They’re also making it look like the 2011 scenario is playing out but we should have seen one more bounce up to the 50 day average before heading to the final lows ala Oct 2011.
Then there is the South Sea Bubble scenario which would see one whopper of a rally tomorrow.
There’s a falling trendline on the SPX that’s around 1925 today and will probably be around 1920 tomorrow. That would be the first level of resistance I’d think it will pause at. Maybe that will be an A wave up? Then a B wave down to come close to retesting the lows but actually it should put in a higher low. That would setup the C wave up to squeeze out the bears shorting at the bottom of the B wave down. Just speculation there of course.
The 3rd scenario seems to be in play… but mixed with some shake out rallies along the way. So part is the 1st scenario with the jagged see-saw pattern, but the other part is the 3rd one as I do see a big gap down crash in the future coming.
From Richard Russell when the SPX was 2100 something?
Theory #1 is in play and I really think everyone should be looking down in stead of up.( You haven’t seen TRUE FEAR yet)
I have only two theories; first, the market will decline in a jagged
see-saw pattern, a pattern that creates no fear. The market drops ten
percent and analysts declare that this is the long awaited and long
expected ten percent correction.
But the general market continues to
decline, and investors remain in the market waiting for the inevitable
rally that will conclude the correction. No rally comes, and stocks
continue to decline, suddenly there is a realization that this is no
correction but a bear market, and down goes the bear, taking billion of
shares with him.
The other scenario that I envision is
one day, with no previous warning, the market drops and a huge gap, over
a thousand points in the Dow opens. The authorities close the exchange
for three days and when the market opens, it gaps down again. When the
market finally opens again, thousands of stocks open well below their
previous closes and a bear market is on.
It feels like it wants to flush out today. But right now it’s in between an 1870 SPX double bottom level to go long at for a decent multi-day rally, and a small 20-30 rally up then a drop to 1870 area. Either one is possible, but flushing out first… down to the 1870 area would probably hurt the most traders, and SkyNet loves to do that you know.
That’s one big rally Scott. I don’t see that right now but if we double bottom first then possibly we have a big squeeze up? However, I do expect a lower low… but it might not come until the end of next week where my “turn point” is at (October 9th).
Russell 2000 was down 6.66 pts today.
Anyway, ideally I am expecting for the SP to test its 8-24 lows tomorrow and then finish mildly down then bounce hard the following day. Or it could bounce hard tomorrow….really a reflexive bounce play off the lower BB…..or it could crash into 10-2 but I think that is the least likely scenario.
My Nikkei 1990 scenario could still be in play though the current market has deviated from it somewhat. That spike off the double bottom low would see a fierce bounce to the 1960 area. But that is just one scenario.
They’re also making it look like the 2011 scenario is playing out but we should have seen one more bounce up to the 50 day average before heading to the final lows ala Oct 2011.
Then there is the South Sea Bubble scenario which would see one whopper of a rally tomorrow.
There’s a falling trendline on the SPX that’s around 1925 today and will probably be around 1920 tomorrow. That would be the first level of resistance I’d think it will pause at. Maybe that will be an A wave up? Then a B wave down to come close to retesting the lows but actually it should put in a higher low. That would setup the C wave up to squeeze out the bears shorting at the bottom of the B wave down. Just speculation there of course.
SPX Morning Update September 28th, 2015 – http://screencast.com/t/e8JGTxNmvYl
The 3rd scenario seems to be in play… but mixed with some shake out rallies along the way. So part is the 1st scenario with the jagged see-saw pattern, but the other part is the 3rd one as I do see a big gap down crash in the future coming.
WEB BOT info.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJvYrm_EBm0
From Richard Russell when the SPX was 2100 something?
Theory #1 is in play and I really think everyone should be looking down in stead of up.( You haven’t seen TRUE FEAR yet)
I have only two theories; first, the market will decline in a jagged
see-saw pattern, a pattern that creates no fear. The market drops ten
percent and analysts declare that this is the long awaited and long
expected ten percent correction.
But the general market continues to
decline, and investors remain in the market waiting for the inevitable
rally that will conclude the correction. No rally comes, and stocks
continue to decline, suddenly there is a realization that this is no
correction but a bear market, and down goes the bear, taking billion of
shares with him.
The other scenario that I envision is
one day, with no previous warning, the market drops and a huge gap, over
a thousand points in the Dow opens. The authorities close the exchange
for three days and when the market opens, it gaps down again. When the
market finally opens again, thousands of stocks open well below their
previous closes and a bear market is on.
It feels like it wants to flush out today. But right now it’s in between an 1870 SPX double bottom level to go long at for a decent multi-day rally, and a small 20-30 rally up then a drop to 1870 area. Either one is possible, but flushing out first… down to the 1870 area would probably hurt the most traders, and SkyNet loves to do that you know.
That’s one big rally Scott. I don’t see that right now but if we double bottom first then possibly we have a big squeeze up? However, I do expect a lower low… but it might not come until the end of next week where my “turn point” is at (October 9th).
looking at 1970 this week.
SPX Morning Update September 28th, 2015 – http://screencast.com/t/iDCzwkVQKx5