I’m expecting the same target zone as he is and his top Fib. level of 1632.96 could easily be the level that the falling trendline will be at on Friday as shown in this chart…
P.S. New FP on the SPY of 160.87, which I believe will be hit by the close today… but make no mistake in thinking we are going to tank hard on Friday as you should know that this move down is done to trap shorts. They will spin the non-farm payroll report as positive to rally the market regardless of the number.
Everything in my gut tells me they are going to ramp this up to close the gap at 1628.93 on the SPX and hit the falling trendline around 1635 (today only as it’s obviously still falling and will be lower on Friday). Therefore I’m holding off on shorting until Friday as I fully expect this move up to happen on that “eleven” day.
Then by noon to 2pm I’d expect it to top out and allow for some light selling into the close to make a topping tail on the daily candle chart. That will allow the gangsters to release some negative news over the weekend and gap down on Monday, with the rest of the week being bearish too! You should all know by now that they always squeeze out the retails bears before they tank it. I fully expect that squeeze on Friday.
I do not trust this down move gang. The markets are open till 1:30pm today (EST) and some how I think they will recover a lot of this mornings move down. I’m also concerned about what tricks they have in mind for Friday as it’s a full day of trading but without much POMO. Today they have the larger amount of POMO which tells me to wait and let them use it up.
According to their schedule they usually use it between 10:15am and 11:00am (EST) so I’m waiting until after then to see what happens. Since Friday doesn’t have much money to rally it back up I’d think that if we rally up today I’d look to short into Friday’s non-farm payroll report. But it also depends on how high we rally, as even without much money from POMO on Friday they still have extremely light volume… which makes it easy to manipulate the market higher.
I think they do a big pop and close above the 50 day average. Similar to the final up (2 wave) in double ninen and even double five years ago. This counter pop off of last Monday’s lows has lasted too long to be a minor ii, more likely a 2 now.
I guess traders are not wanting to be long into the ADP report Wednesday morning at 8:30am. This is good for the bears I think as it allows them to rip the market up to fill that 1628.93 gap and hit the falling trendline in the 1630-1640 spx area.
I do think that because of tomorrow being half day and then closed on the 4th for Indepence Day (from what is the question as we are still all debt slaves to gangsters), that we’ll rally back up and squeeze out any bears getting short today. If there is one thing the gangsters do well it’s steal money!
Personally Geccko I’m just playing the odd’s here and those odd’s tell me we go up to the resistance area around 1640 from the falling trendline and then rollover. Light volume supports the bulls but 2 days in a row of rallying and then selling off shows weakness in the strength of the bulls.
That… along with the weekly chart still bearish, the lack of a 5th wave down (which should end in the 1520-1540 area), missing the gap fill at 1628.93 by a few points, Cobra’s old stat’s that talks about 3 attempts higher before rolling over (we’ve had 2 now), and the MACD’s still down in the -2.5 range on this chart tell me we need one more higher high and a couple more days…
If the MACD’s can get up to the zero level… note that is is a longer time frame for them as it’s related to the 65 and 90 periods instead of the 12 and 26 period in most charts like this one…
… then I think the rally will be over with. You can see the 2 hits at 1620 and 1626 on that chart and you’ll see the 200 period moving average at 1629.19 as well. Everything tells me we’ll at least fill the gap at 1628.93 and hopefully at the same time hit that falling trendline to complete this up move.
As you can see that falling trendline is around 1640 today but could be around 1630 by Wednesday. That indicates that Tuesday we could drop out of that rising wedge at the open and then rise back up into Wednesday morning to backtest the breakdown… which is is rising of course and could be around 1630 as well.
Needless to say with all the odd’s in favor of one more move higher I find myself hesitate to short until Wednesday to see if it plays out or not. But after Wednesday I see no reason not to short as the bulls should be exhausted by then with nothing left but a down move to follow.
I couldn’t have said it better then what Peter Ghostine says in his chart… http://charts.61point8.com/20130705-SPX.png
I’m expecting the same target zone as he is and his top Fib. level of 1632.96 could easily be the level that the falling trendline will be at on Friday as shown in this chart…
http://screencast.com/t/iZBEnUUVk
P.S. New FP on the SPY of 160.87, which I believe will be hit by the close today… but make no mistake in thinking we are going to tank hard on Friday as you should know that this move down is done to trap shorts. They will spin the non-farm payroll report as positive to rally the market regardless of the number.
Everything in my gut tells me they are going to ramp this up to close the gap at 1628.93 on the SPX and hit the falling trendline around 1635 (today only as it’s obviously still falling and will be lower on Friday). Therefore I’m holding off on shorting until Friday as I fully expect this move up to happen on that “eleven” day.
Then by noon to 2pm I’d expect it to top out and allow for some light selling into the close to make a topping tail on the daily candle chart. That will allow the gangsters to release some negative news over the weekend and gap down on Monday, with the rest of the week being bearish too! You should all know by now that they always squeeze out the retails bears before they tank it. I fully expect that squeeze on Friday.
I do not trust this down move gang. The markets are open till 1:30pm today (EST) and some how I think they will recover a lot of this mornings move down. I’m also concerned about what tricks they have in mind for Friday as it’s a full day of trading but without much POMO. Today they have the larger amount of POMO which tells me to wait and let them use it up.
According to their schedule they usually use it between 10:15am and 11:00am (EST) so I’m waiting until after then to see what happens. Since Friday doesn’t have much money to rally it back up I’d think that if we rally up today I’d look to short into Friday’s non-farm payroll report. But it also depends on how high we rally, as even without much money from POMO on Friday they still have extremely light volume… which makes it easy to manipulate the market higher.
I think they do a big pop and close above the 50 day average. Similar to the final up (2 wave) in double ninen and even double five years ago. This counter pop off of last Monday’s lows has lasted too long to be a minor ii, more likely a 2 now.
Today’s action did damage upward momo a bit.
I guess traders are not wanting to be long into the ADP report Wednesday morning at 8:30am. This is good for the bears I think as it allows them to rip the market up to fill that 1628.93 gap and hit the falling trendline in the 1630-1640 spx area.
I do think that because of tomorrow being half day and then closed on the 4th for Indepence Day (from what is the question as we are still all debt slaves to gangsters), that we’ll rally back up and squeeze out any bears getting short today. If there is one thing the gangsters do well it’s steal money!
Mr. TopStep video update… https://www.me-topstep.com/index.php/multimedia/video/latest/mts-video-of-the-day-justin-bouchard-7-2-13
APPLE Chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/07/apple-chart-analysis.html
Astro energy boy….the best contrarian indicator out there………you already have a link…..this message will self destruct in T minus…….
Who is astroboy Geccko? Post his link please for others to read.
Personally Geccko I’m just playing the odd’s here and those odd’s tell me we go up to the resistance area around 1640 from the falling trendline and then rollover. Light volume supports the bulls but 2 days in a row of rallying and then selling off shows weakness in the strength of the bulls.
That… along with the weekly chart still bearish, the lack of a 5th wave down (which should end in the 1520-1540 area), missing the gap fill at 1628.93 by a few points, Cobra’s old stat’s that talks about 3 attempts higher before rolling over (we’ve had 2 now), and the MACD’s still down in the -2.5 range on this chart tell me we need one more higher high and a couple more days…
http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/267073814;
If the MACD’s can get up to the zero level… note that is is a longer time frame for them as it’s related to the 65 and 90 periods instead of the 12 and 26 period in most charts like this one…
http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/287454750;
… then I think the rally will be over with. You can see the 2 hits at 1620 and 1626 on that chart and you’ll see the 200 period moving average at 1629.19 as well. Everything tells me we’ll at least fill the gap at 1628.93 and hopefully at the same time hit that falling trendline to complete this up move.
As you can see that falling trendline is around 1640 today but could be around 1630 by Wednesday. That indicates that Tuesday we could drop out of that rising wedge at the open and then rise back up into Wednesday morning to backtest the breakdown… which is is rising of course and could be around 1630 as well.
Needless to say with all the odd’s in favor of one more move higher I find myself hesitate to short until Wednesday to see if it plays out or not. But after Wednesday I see no reason not to short as the bulls should be exhausted by then with nothing left but a down move to follow.