Saturday, April 13, 2024

The Mini Stock Market Crash On The Day Of Satan Monday June 24th 2013…

Technical Update 07-07-2013

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPM0yRyy5M0)

Downside target is 1580-1600 SPX by Thursday or Friday.  Then up into opx Friday July 19th, 2013.

Red

_____________________________________________________

Technical Update 06-29-2013

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apydQdPluYk)

Not exactly a "mini-crash" on Monday but still a nasty down day before bottoming...

Red

_____________________________________________________

One More Big Move Down Before A Short Term Bottom...

Last week was one hell of a ride for the bears that got short by 2:30 pm Wednesday as Bernanke said nothing about giving the bulls more crack when the FOMC minutes were released.  In fact he spoke more about taking some of their crack back from them, which needless to say... didn't make them very happy!  I personally missed the whole move down as I was too busy with some other projects I'm currently working on right now.  But hopefully some of you were short and benefited from Bernanke's gift to the bears.  It was one of those moves that if you didn't get short ahead of time you would have missed the whole thing as they didn't give the bears any decent bounces to get short at.

It's funny how worthless elliottwave is when a big move like this happens.  The whole move down looked like one large wave 3 instead of a 5 wave pattern.  You can go back now and see some very small bounces in it and count out the entire wave pattern but when it was happening you would have likely missed them.  So now it appears that we have bottomed for the short term and will likely be given one shot to get a short position from the expected early morning bounce this Monday.

So those of us that missed the first big move will get one more chance for the next big move down... which I think will happen all on Monday!  If the first move from the 1654 high to the 1577 low wave a large wave A then Friday and Monday mornings bounce should be the larger B wave up.  This should end by midday Monday and start rolling over in the afternoon session, which should scare every last bull to death when it takes out the 1577 low on the accelerated larger wave C down, which I believe will go hit 1536 pretty quickly.  In fact with the momentum it's likely to gather I think it will take that prior low out and head toward the 200 day moving average around 1506 SPX.

Now I don't think it will get that low but I'm expecting a pierce of 10-20 points below the 1536 prior low just like the 1577 recent low went 21 points lower then the 1598 low back on June 6th, which was a day just like this coming Monday is going to be.  What I mean is that June 6th, 2013 was Satan's 666 day and so will be Monday June 24th, 2013.  How?  Because June is the 6th month and 2013 equals a 6 for the year, which is 2 six's just right there.  Then the 6th day of the month is an obvious six and then the 24th is too as 2+4=6.  So this Monday is a 666 day and I fully expect them to use it to produce this massive larger wave C down, which will look like a mini-crash if we first rally to above 1600 somewhere first and then tank to above that 200 day moving average and below that 1536 prior low.

If there is ever a perfect day for them to do a mini-crash it would be Monday June 24th, 2013...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjlXkCD9-sw)

Will it happen like that?  Hard too say obviously but the charts would certain support an ABC pattern playing out here.  The question is simply how high will the larger wave B go up to and how long will it take for the larger wave C down take before it ends?  The larger A wave down from the 1654 high to the 1577 low really happened in only 2 days and the larger B wave up started on Friday and could easily end sometime on Monday... making it only 2 days in duration.  So can a larger C wave down happen in just one day?  It certainly could I believe but naturally I can't guarantee you that we are going to have this mini-crash all on Monday and then end the larger C wave down.  I'm only pointing out the possibility for this to happen all in one day is real.

Just be that this is not me calling for a crash on Monday but presenting some interesting facts that say it "could" happen.  I'll simply be looking for that larger B wave up to end at some point in the first half of the day on Monday to get short at.  If the market then rolls over for the start of the larger C wave down then it could take 2 days, 3 days or longer to end since the A wave and B wave took 2 days.  But considering that any C wave is generally a "capitulation" wave where traders panic while getting hit with margin calls the possibility is real that it could all happen in just one day... and the best day would be Monday due to it's Satanic nature.  We all know the people that control the market love their rituals and this is a perfect time to make a mini-crash happen in my opinion.

Regardless if this happens all in one day or not we should all just be focusing on finding the top of this larger B wave up so we can short it in front of the larger C wave down that will follow.  If it takes 1 day or 1 week to end the C wave it shouldn't really matter as the goal is to just be on board for the ride.  Looking at the charts we all see that big gap at 1628.93 to 1622.54 SPX that stands out like an obvious target.  While it's common to fill gaps it's not common to expect it to happen this soon.  Maybe they only go to gap window at 1622.54 and don't make gap fill at 1628.93 until weeks from now after we first bottom below 1536 and rally back up in the first few weeks in July.

Looking at the charts I can draw a trendline from the 5/30 high of 1661.90, connect it to the 6/10 high at 1647.72 and it will point toward about 1625 area (and falling of course) on Monday.  This means that it could fall to the 1622 gap window level by early Monday, and should stop the bulls on the first hit.  This implies that gap fill won't likely happen and the best the bulls can hope for is gap window.   From a Fibonacci level we have a 50% retracement at 1616 and a 38.2% at 1606 SPX.  The 1606 level seems a little bit too shallow if they want to really trick the bulls and get the largest percentage of them trapped before a nasty C crash wave down.  Plus you need to get the bears out of their short positions for the C wave down to really gain momentum.  Therefore I'd think the 1616-1622 area will be the best spot to get the most bulls long and the most bears out.

The only major concern here is that I could be focusing on the wrong idea... meaning that there is probably more bulls trapped long then bears to squeeze.  That means the lower target of 1606 for the 38.2% Fibonacci level might be all we get?  The overnight futures Sunday night and Monday morning should give us a clue I think.  I'd like to see a strong gap up open to get the rally going strong so we can hit the higher target range of 1616 (the 50% Fib. level) to 1622 the gap window and trendline of resistance level.  I'd love to short from that zone as opposed to only 1606 but the market will give us whatever we are allowed I guess.

We should also watch the VXX closely for clues and when it gets close to it's gap window of 20.91 we should be topping on the SPX at the same time.  Maybe it even goes and fills it's gap at 20.12 and the SPX only hits gap window but we should watch it closely for clues.  Then the ES also has an important trendline to watch, which comes in around 1620 (and falling of course) that would probably match up with the 1622 gap window on the SPX.  This is the ideal place to short the market on Monday should it rally up that high?  We may only get the 38.2% level around 1606 but I'm leaning toward the 1622 zone.

Regardless of if this happens all on Monday or not the odds of getting through the 1620 area "downward sloping resistance" line on the ES on the first hit is very low.  That's about 1622 on the SPX which is around gap window and also the lower rising trendline from the broken channel the market fell out of last week.  When you have 2 trendlines meeting around the same spot along with a gap window level you have triple resistance there.  You also have the 50 day moving average around 1618 and the 50% Fibonacci level at 1616 to deal with too.  All of those factors tell me that the zone of 1616 to 1622 is going to be very, very hard to breakthrough on the first hit.

After the market finishes this C wave down I expect 2-3 weeks of choppy up and down action into late July before topping for a final "lower high" then the 1687 top on May 22nd, 2013.  From that area I'll be looking for the next crash wave down that should make August one very ugly month for the bulls and a feast for the bears.  I'm expecting the 1420-1440 area to be the downside target for that huge sell off.  Then we should rally the rest of the year if all goes as planned.

Good luck as always...

Red

Red
Author: Red

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Scott Gifford
Scott Gifford
10 years ago

Red,

What if Berneke comes Monday and increase the 85 Billion to say 100 Billion … I think the SnP will go to 1700 very quick.

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago
Reply to  Scott Gifford

Not going to happen Scott. We’ll rally to 1700+ but that won’t happen until we first sell off to 1400+, and it’s not planned to happen until early next year. This week we’ll very likely see the rally to the 1620 area and then rollover.

At that point, the only thing that could happen is that we only drop to some higher low and then rally back up for attempt to maybe 1635 (which would push this out until about Wednesday) or we continue lower the rest of the day on Monday and into Tuesday headed for the 1520-1530 area low.

But that zone of 1620 is very high probability short for another move down. I think that “if” it gets going really fast it will break Friday’s low and give us our mini-crash wave. But, there’s still the chance that it might only go to say 1590-1600 and turn back up Tuesday/Wednesday to delay the next move down.

I’m just speculating on this Monday producing a mini-crash wave. But the 1620 area is still a great shorting area for some kind of wave down. Will be the big wave or just a small wave with one more up to go is unknown?

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago

My ex school mate posted on his twitter that the Shining documentary Room 237 was the best movie of the year.

He posed a question for the conpiracy theorists: what was the meaning of Kubrick placing a scene from the Summer of ’42 in the Shining?

Well, it’s pretty simple; it was a reference for the upcoming grand ritual and with the summer solstice on Friday we have entered the Summer of 42 ie 67 or 6+7=13 etc. etc.

Kubrick littered the film with 42 references: the kid wears #42, there are 42 cars parked in Overlook Hotel’s parking lot at the beginning, Shelly Duvall swings the bat 42 times at Jack Nicholson, All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy is 42 spaces including the spaces in between, 33 characters used, 1980 (Shining release date)+33==2013…..

237===2x3x7=42…..as I have mentioned in the past, 2013 is 237 years from the founding of the enlightened ones and the USA in 1776. It probably explains why a lot of red white and blue can be seen in the film…the little boy is often seen wearing red white and blue…..the photo at the end showing Jack Nicholson partying at the hotel on July 4 1921..

My exschool mate did make an Illuminati reference on his twitter so I am not so sure he is part of the clan. Otherwise why would he throw out the Summer of 42 reference. In fact, I am amazed they didn’t do a 1987 ritual with his Less than Zero although at the end of the sequel he does write a sort of epitaph for the Less than Zero characters (1985-2010 which does appear to be occultic numerology). He does have what should be quite a scandalous film coming out in early August featuring Lindsay Lohan and porn actors but at a $200,000 budget, I don’t really see it as a major ritualistic entity.

The operators already hinted that this should be the year of “42” with the release of 42 earlier this year and the following events that took place on Jackie Robinson day.

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago

Well, 6-24 is 66 and 7729 days from Bradley’s Ode to the ’29’92 ritual date. I did hear Bradley’s Ode 3 times in a week’s period time last week which is quite amazing. Previously, I hadn’t heard it since the 21 year anniversary earlier in the year. The day before the fed meeting they followed it immediately with the new grand ritual anthem, Daft Punk’s Get Lucky (“she stays up to the sun”) which is playing across all radio formats…..I even see it being played in Karaoke…..

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

Well crap… I’d thought we’d bounce first before going to 1520-1530 but from the looks of the futures I think it’s going to be a straight shot down!

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

Needless to say gang I don’t see the market bouncing very much at this point as it’s too close to ending the whole move in the 1525 spx area.

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

There is a downward sloping trendline coming in around 1580 spx right and should stop this rally. I see another move down coming into the close and tomorrow with 1525 area as the target low for this entire move.

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

Pretty strong bounce going on right now so I wouldn’t go short at this point. Let’s see where it goes first.

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

Hmmm…. at this point we could have already had all the downside for now and could be making that bounce back up to the 1620 area as I suggested in this post. Hard too say right now as I’m still thinking we are going to hit the 1525 area before a multi-week rally.

But for now I’d like to just wait and watch to see at least a 3 wave pattern (ABC) move up before thinking of shorting again. If the move off the low was the A wave up then there should be a B wave down tomorrow or into the close today that puts in a higher low and allows for a C wave toward that 1620 to complete this rally. Then I’d think about shorting again.

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago

Well, today the market managed to replicate the action from 5-5 from 3 years ago. Drops to an intraday low, then rallies most of the rest of the day to new intraday highs, then falls at the end closing in the middle of the daily trading range, all in the red. the $tsx bar captures this the best, but the Nasdaq one is good also. $nymo was in a similar area.

A component of a certain little indicator dropped to the extreme negative levels of the previous few weeks. Another down day like today or worse will have it challengeing its all time negative extremes.

Most of the indices still managed to tag their lower BBs so we still need a comlete bar beneath the lower BB for a final washout. Trin had a mild reading.

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

I think we have an ABC (larger wave 4) up pattern in play now with the A wave about to top here soon with the B wave down to happen into today’s close or at the open on Wednesday. Then a C wave up to around 1620 around for the gap window to complete the larger wave 4 up. After that I expect the larger wave 5 down to start and head toward 1525 spx area.

http://screencast.com/t/LqYhFVQj

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

Nice FP on the SPY to 160.10 at 3:35pm…. http://screencast.com/t/mSOS6fRh

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago

Time for them to drop it below the lower BB again tomorrow. I don’t see a final washout until the 200 day average is breached. Should march lower now that 50 day has been breached. All significant corrections head to the 200 day average. And so far this has been a significants correction. Number of stocks above the 50 day average are indicating that.

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Mercury turns station direct tomorrow just before the New York open.

Another whipsaw in the component of a certain little indicator putting the eventual denouement off……………. when the negative levels of the last few weeks should be exceeded. (Firepower for 2 big down days at least)

Tomorrow is another 26 day…..

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

A good place to short is probably around 1612 area on the ES (and falling) as seen in this possible wave count… http://screencast.com/t/qSSEO0bQkAg

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

A very interesting interview about reptilians from the view of a half-reptilian rothschild woman…. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4Vij4LsVO4

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

Remember the old saying about “initial claims” day, which is that the market tends to do the opposite into the afternoon and close of what happens at the open. Meaning that if we gap down on initial claims data then the market usually floats back up the rest of the day. And if we gap up the market tends to fall back down the rest of the day.

Considering how close we are to the falling trendline that is currently coming in around 1610 on the ES and about 1614 on the SPX I tend to think we’ll rally up to those targets by noon or so and then rollover the rest the day and into Friday morning. I could see a move back to 1580 area for this B wave before it finds decent support.

Scott Gifford
Scott Gifford
10 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

we could even head much lower to 1540-50 area

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago
Reply to  Scott Gifford

From the looks of things they appear to be going straight up without an “obvious” ABC pattern. So possibly this whole move will end tomorrow with some final gap up move to close all the gaps on the ES, SPX, SPY, etc… and then start the 5th wave down into next week. I’m waiting right now to short and I think I’ll wait until tomorrow morning as that should be the end of this wave 4 up.

Scott Gifford
Scott Gifford
10 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

looks good. 1620-22 top and then down

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago
Reply to  Scott Gifford

Probably a little higher then that Scott as gap fill on the SPX is around 1628 which could be hit tomorrow morning if they want to squeeze out the last bear.

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

We’ve hit gap window now and look like they want to go higher to possibly hit gap fill at 162.53 SPY, but we’re hitting resistance from the downward sloping trendline on the SPX and the ES. However, it’s broke through that trendline on the SPY so I’m not sure what the plan here is? Do we stop at the trendline of resistance and gap window or breakthrough the trendlines on the SPX and ES to allow the SPY to fill the gap?

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago

All of the indices popped to their downsloping 20 day averages, some even the 50 day average where in a few cases the 20 day converges with the 50 day. The 60 min MACDs got into overbought area as well as the RSIs and 60 min stochastics have crossed over and turned down albeit still at high levels.

3rd day in a row with a gap up. Can they muster a 4th day. Don’t think so.

The Russell 2000 was the strongest index today with coincidentally the Russell rebalance occuring tomorrow after the close. Of course, yesterday, it was the weakest index and played catch-up today. It looks like the proper three white candle reaction pattern with the 3rd bar having the big blowoff day.

A Mercury Retrograde initial fakeout move?

The trickster turns the market into an initial strong impulse upward only to reverse it in an even more dramatic manner afterwards like its last two occurences on Feb 24 and Nov 4, 2012…..the strong downmoves followed on Feb 25 and Nov. 7.

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago

June 28 always catches my attention because of the Tebow 316 day on 1-8 last year and 3 years prior to that. The last one being the defining moment when he hurled that 80 bomb during the first play of overtime to #88 to win the game in overtime. Tebow #15 (6) to #88 or 28—6-28…

6-28 works as 88 as well. Remember defenders #24 and #29 can be seen trailing #88 as he scampers 80 yards (888).

Tebow back in the news as he was signed by the Patritots recently (and it was at one of the recent highs). His new and former teammate, Aaron Hernandez, also taking a prominent place in the current news cycle. Hernandez #81….and recently did see photos of his jerseys bunched together forming the 888 number. Purportedly, Tebow and Hernandez, the gang member were roomates in college, LOL but I haven’t verified that yet but will do later but it is too hard to come back on this site so I might have to verify at a later time.

Some say Tebow might even take Hernandez’s job as tight end which in his case would have a double meaning as many educated football fans have certain suspicions regarding Tebow, who after all is just another programmed actor most similar to his soccer counterpart Ronaldo.

But we have another big soccer anniversary coming up on 7-1, when I believe onetime fellow programees and teammates, Ronaldo and Wayne Rooney got into a little ritualistic scuffle at the World Cup but I need to review that over the weekend. I believe last year’s World Cup final was played on 7-1.

The recent Champions league final played on May 25 featured 2 German teams, the first time that has happened I believe with traditional powerhouse Bayern Munich winning.

6-28 is 1year 5months 20 days (62??) from the Tebow 316 day in 2012….or 1 year 161 days later or 527 days (somehow this line was dropped from its proper place following the last Tebow paragraph.)

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

Not much to do at this point but wait. I certainly wouldn’t go long here but it’s not wise to go short yet either. This move down should turn around at some point today I think, and if they put in a higher high today near the gap window (or gap fill) I’d consider shorting it there. But right now I wouldn’t do anything.

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

The SPX tends to move in 80-100 point ranges and right now we are 60 points off the 1560 low to yesterday’s high of 1620. This tells me to look for 1640-1660 as the final high to end this move as that makes 80-100 points. So then I look for trendlines and the most obvious one is the the one that connects the price high on May 22nd to the price on June 18th and extending it to today.

That line coming in around 1640 right now and should continue to drop every day. It’s highly doubtful that we get it today as I really think we’ll sell off some into the close today. So I’d look for it to hit by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. If the charts line up then I’d be looking to get short around those dates and that level. But since we are closed on Thursday the fourth of July I’d expect light volume on Friday the 5th, which could hold the market up and make that day the best day to get short.

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Here’s a chart of what I’m expecting… http://screencast.com/t/zbn9rvX7q2

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

Nice “Cup and Handle” pattern on the market too, which supports a move up next week to those trendlines of resistance in the 1630-1640 area.

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago

I was focusing on a similar fractal to May 31, June 1st 2011 to the pattern put over the last few days with the three rally days off a drop culminating into a blowoff 3rd day (May 31) that was immediately reversed hard downward even more vehemently the next day (June 1st) both situated around the end of the month/ start of the month near a holiday period (then following Memorial Day—this time with July 4 approaching) but it didn’t quite workout that way today since we didn’t get a doji to finish off the month and then wait for the selloff at the start of the month next week while the selloff today was somewhat tepid with breadth actually being a little positive which is a little worrisome but I will write that off due to the Russell 2000 rebalance shenanigans.

The best argument for the bearish case was the Russell 2000 rallying into the rebalance today and putting even more divergences on its 60 min and smaller time frame charts. MACD lines spent some time above the O line while flattening out. Nasdaq also did something similar.

After the close, the Russell appears to have imploded thus substantiated the idea that this rally/ bounce was a prop job for the Russell 2000.

Anyway, July 1st has some amazing numerological hits and now that we have rallied into it, it looks like these hits could really workout.

A couple of 87 connections: 1087 tds from the 3-6-9 low and 9387 days from the lesser grand ritual double five years ago. (5×5) Soon we will be running out of the 93 portion of that numerological composition so I believe some heavy downside action needs to get going although I believe the dawning of the age of Aquarius comes later. The July 4 theme seems to play a big part in enlightened one artist Stanley Kubrick’s the Shining. Then there is the rowboat race(Henley regatta) in the July 4 timeframe in the Social Network. So something big might be brewing in that timeframe.

7-1 is also 1439 tds from 10-11-07 (reverse those numbers)….14 and 39 major combo numbers…….14==7+7 (711) and 39

Also, 7-1 is 27 tds from the 5-22 high…27===77 or 3×9

I need to gage trollish sentiment/ commentary a little more extensively to get a better grasp if these downside events can truly play out. So far haven’t seen too much of the bullish seasonality commentary for the upcoming week although I don’t see a lot of fear for a meltdown either.

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

As far as I can tell, Aaron Hernadez and Tim Tebow were not roommates at the UF. Riley Cooper was Tebow’s roommate so I doubt there was a third one.

I guess a lot of the trolls were having fun at Tebow’s expense over on the Aaron Hernandez-related message boards on a certain sports site. They were a pretty good read.

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

The SP topped one week past when it should have according to the 666 week cycle (at least from double five years ago).

Sol Rosenberg
Sol Rosenberg
10 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

good call on Monday morning Red! LOL

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago

On July 1, 2006, 7years ago, Christian Ronaldo and Wayne Rooney played their part in a little ritualistic scuffle that saw following a Rooney shove of Ronaldo, a RED card awarded to Rooney and an immediate exit from the World Cup in Germany. It was an initial 9-9-17 numey combo play as Rooney #9 gave a hard foul to Portugal’s #9, and then saw Ronaldo #17come into fray and “coerce” (or was all of this scripted?) Rooney to shove him leading to Rooney’s immediate expulsion. In the video, portugal’s #8 shows up next to Ronaldo to form a 8-17 at the time (or 8-8???). 99===9×11 or 29….99 for 1(0)7. As I recall, Ronaldo’s first play for Manchester United and his handler Ferguson came on October 7th (2002?) and Ronaldo’s subequent number for Portugal became #7.

The Portugese England game went to extra time and ended in a 1-3 score Portugal win on goal kicks.

Last year’s final played on 7-1 was the European Cup final not a World Cup one.

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Rooney’s original #9 for the English club has now morphed to #10 for the Ray Ray 9-10 combo. His original number for Manchester was #8 and it is now #10—As I recall, Ronaldo’s #==7 when he played with Rooney on Manchester for an 87 combo.

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

LOL… we did the completion of the move down on the ES to 1595 Sunday night and now we’re back on track to hit that 1630-1640 by this Wednesday or Friday.

Sol Rosenberg
Sol Rosenberg
10 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

ok so crash later this week.. got it

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago
Reply to  Sol Rosenberg

No Sol… I’m expecting a top in the 1630-1640 spx area by Wednesday most likely. Then some light selling into Friday for the first wave 1 down… followed by a rally back up on Friday into the close for the wave 2 up. This makes the week look good to the retail sheep over the holiday weekend.

But it also allows the wave 3 down to start Monday July 8th which I think will fool most traders when they come back from the 4th of July holiday weekend. I’m not sure if they plan to release some negative news during this period to cause a gap down on Monday or just open flat and gradually start selling… but next week look very bearish to me.

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

Not filling the gap at 1628.93 SPX tells me the bulls aren’t done yet. This down move just another attempt to get a few more bears in to short squeeze in my view. That also tells me the the market is weak as this is the 2nd move down in a short period is likely because the bulls don’t have much left on the upside.

So they have to get some bears short to force the market up from a squeeze. I think there aren’t many bears left to short as they are all waiting for higher prices before shorting. Most bears also know about light volume holiday weeks and aren’t jumping in fully short right now due to that reason.

Again, I think we are still going up more and I expect to see this down move reversed tomorrow and into Wednesday morning. Possibly the non-farm payroll report will be blamed for the selling on Friday? That’s assuming we top on Wednesday and sell off some on Friday of course.

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago

I am a little neutral on the stock market now. The first few days of the month usually head in the same direction and there is strong seasonality right now. Since we didn’t open the month down, then I have to temper my views. But most indices still didn’t get above their 50 day averages and sold off at the end after testing them.

Tomorrow is 28 tds off the May 22 high, which in the past in “special circumstances” marked important secondary highs.

Just a little worried since I exited from some long term positions today at what appeared to be the top and don’t have any short term exposure so I am vulnerable to a big down day. I guess just watch for a TD bear flip. Likewise, a close above the 50 day average could send the market hard upward. Momentum measurements are very cloudy right now….actually short term bullish.

Other than Stanley Kubrick’s fascination with July 4 in the Shining, I never saw anything very cataclysmic around here.

Haven’t really perused the blogosphere for trollish sentiment yet..

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Actually, thought I had short term positions but but let’s just say in the money positions weren’t coverted……which would be another ingenious way to get bears out before the plungola.

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

There you go…..astroboy predicting a heavy week of selling…..done yesterday though.

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Who is astroboy Geccko? Post his link please for others to read.

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Astro energy boy….the best contrarian indicator out there………you already have a link…..this message will self destruct in T minus…….

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Personally Geccko I’m just playing the odd’s here and those odd’s tell me we go up to the resistance area around 1640 from the falling trendline and then rollover. Light volume supports the bulls but 2 days in a row of rallying and then selling off shows weakness in the strength of the bulls.

That… along with the weekly chart still bearish, the lack of a 5th wave down (which should end in the 1520-1540 area), missing the gap fill at 1628.93 by a few points, Cobra’s old stat’s that talks about 3 attempts higher before rolling over (we’ve had 2 now), and the MACD’s still down in the -2.5 range on this chart tell me we need one more higher high and a couple more days…

http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/267073814;

If the MACD’s can get up to the zero level… note that is is a longer time frame for them as it’s related to the 65 and 90 periods instead of the 12 and 26 period in most charts like this one…

http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/287454750;

… then I think the rally will be over with. You can see the 2 hits at 1620 and 1626 on that chart and you’ll see the 200 period moving average at 1629.19 as well. Everything tells me we’ll at least fill the gap at 1628.93 and hopefully at the same time hit that falling trendline to complete this up move.

As you can see that falling trendline is around 1640 today but could be around 1630 by Wednesday. That indicates that Tuesday we could drop out of that rising wedge at the open and then rise back up into Wednesday morning to backtest the breakdown… which is is rising of course and could be around 1630 as well.

Needless to say with all the odd’s in favor of one more move higher I find myself hesitate to short until Wednesday to see if it plays out or not. But after Wednesday I see no reason not to short as the bulls should be exhausted by then with nothing left but a down move to follow.

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

I guess traders are not wanting to be long into the ADP report Wednesday morning at 8:30am. This is good for the bears I think as it allows them to rip the market up to fill that 1628.93 gap and hit the falling trendline in the 1630-1640 spx area.

I do think that because of tomorrow being half day and then closed on the 4th for Indepence Day (from what is the question as we are still all debt slaves to gangsters), that we’ll rally back up and squeeze out any bears getting short today. If there is one thing the gangsters do well it’s steal money!

Mr. TopStep video update… https://www.mr-topstep.com/index.php/multimedia/video/latest/mts-video-of-the-day-justin-bouchard-7-2-13

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago

I think they do a big pop and close above the 50 day average. Similar to the final up (2 wave) in double ninen and even double five years ago. This counter pop off of last Monday’s lows has lasted too long to be a minor ii, more likely a 2 now.

Today’s action did damage upward momo a bit.

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

I do not trust this down move gang. The markets are open till 1:30pm today (EST) and some how I think they will recover a lot of this mornings move down. I’m also concerned about what tricks they have in mind for Friday as it’s a full day of trading but without much POMO. Today they have the larger amount of POMO which tells me to wait and let them use it up.

According to their schedule they usually use it between 10:15am and 11:00am (EST) so I’m waiting until after then to see what happens. Since Friday doesn’t have much money to rally it back up I’d think that if we rally up today I’d look to short into Friday’s non-farm payroll report. But it also depends on how high we rally, as even without much money from POMO on Friday they still have extremely light volume… which makes it easy to manipulate the market higher.

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

Everything in my gut tells me they are going to ramp this up to close the gap at 1628.93 on the SPX and hit the falling trendline around 1635 (today only as it’s obviously still falling and will be lower on Friday). Therefore I’m holding off on shorting until Friday as I fully expect this move up to happen on that “eleven” day.

Then by noon to 2pm I’d expect it to top out and allow for some light selling into the close to make a topping tail on the daily candle chart. That will allow the gangsters to release some negative news over the weekend and gap down on Monday, with the rest of the week being bearish too! You should all know by now that they always squeeze out the retails bears before they tank it. I fully expect that squeeze on Friday.

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

P.S. New FP on the SPY of 160.87, which I believe will be hit by the close today… but make no mistake in thinking we are going to tank hard on Friday as you should know that this move down is done to trap shorts. They will spin the non-farm payroll report as positive to rally the market regardless of the number.

ed16888
ed16888
10 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

but the “eleven” day is not friday, it’s actually Tuesday 7+9+2+0+1+3=22, so shouldn’t the market rally all the way till tuesday of next week and then tank?

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago
Reply to  ed16888

Right… thanks! I added wrong. Today is a 9 day as 0+7+0+5+2+0+1+3=18 or 1+8=9! Duh! How’d I miss that? Ok then, next Tuesday is our day then as it’s the real “eleven” day. Thanks for correcting my mistake.

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

I couldn’t have said it better then what Peter Ghostine says in his chart…comment image

I’m expecting the same target zone as he is and his top Fib. level of 1632.96 could easily be the level that the falling trendline will be at on Friday as shown in this chart…

http://screencast.com/t/iZBEnUUVk

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

Considering the reaction the futures had on the jobs data I have to say that we’ll chop around most of today with an upward bias after the first hour or so at the open. Then by the close there should be some slight selling, but not much as most traders are still on holiday vacation.

Now considered that today is another “eleven” day there could be some type of top put in… but I really want to see that downward sloping trendline hit first. It’s coming in around 1633 on the SPX today and was probably already hit on the ES with the spike up to 1630.75 at 8:34 am.

If the trendline is hit today then I might dip my toes into a short but this could easily be pushed out until next Monday just as well. With extremely low volume expected today I just don’t trust any move down and playing the “what if” short position over the weekend is a gamble. Yes, they could release some negative news and gap down on Monday or they could do nothing and just open flat or even gap up?

That “not knowing” makes it tough to go short unless we first hit that falling trendline around 1633 spx and then drop back enough (maybe 10 points?) to put in a nice topping tail on the daily chart. If they don’t drop back and simply trade slightly down the rest of the day (hugging the falling trendline) then that would make a bull flag for Monday.

It could easily happen too with the light volume. They could rally up and possibly hit that trendline by midday and then ride it sideways the rest of the afternoon. This is a tough call and best to just watch for now.

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

There’s still a chance that we’ll hit the 1633 falling trendline before the close today but I wouldn’t do it if I controlled and manipulated the market like the gangsters do. I’d drop back some into the close without closing the 1628.93 gap or hitting the falling trendline around 1633 SPX. Then I go lower on Monday as well to lure in some bears… but not too low.

Come Tuesday morning I’d gap it up to hit that falling trendline (which could be around 1631 by then) and close the 1628.93 gap as well. This would scare out the bears that shorted on Monday, which would allow the market to drop without them short (which is always the evil plan as god forbid if the bears actually are allow to make money).

So there you go… me thinking like a gangster again and trying to figure out what’s the best way to steal money from the sheep (me and you are the sheep… you did know that, didn’t you?). Just remember that the market was created to steal your money and the wolves are good at tricking you.

They lie to you 24 hours a day on all their propaganda media outlets and tell you the opposite of the truth. They tell you Jesse James was an outlaw gangster but he was a hero instead. He just robbed the gangsters and they didn’t like it so they make him out to be the bad guy. Same thing with the last 3 whitleblowers on TV lately as they are hero’s that Obombus calls a hacker!

The only hacker is the NSA, CIA and the FBI. Of course Obombus is too stupid, as he’s just a paid actor like Bush was… poor actor too! We’ll, Bush was stupid too I guess as he obviously can’t read since he’s holding the children’s book upside down during the time the secret service guy whispered in his ear that the bomb’s successfully detonated in the twin tower on 9-11-2001… but he wasn’t focused on trying to read anyway as he was too busy getting the children to sing a ritual Satanic song for him!

Anyway, happy slavery day as we all celebrate the 4th of July holiday where we were all brainwashed into thinking that we are free from the British empire… wrong of course as the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA is just a corporation that is owned by controlled by the child molesting and Satan worshiping Pope, run by the royal trash family with the Reptilian Queen as the leader.

It’s been awhile since I’ve express my feeling toward the Illuminati pigs so now as good as a time to let them know I still don’t respect them. I’ve been trying to focus more on the making accurate calls on the market and less on the gangsters but sometime just need to let them all know that I still can’t stand them for all the evil they still do.

For all the rest of the humans on the planet I wish them love and happiness, and all good things in life. Let everyone get back to them 3 fold of what they put out. Put out love and kindness to your neighbor and fellow human and you’ll get back the same. Put out evil like the gangsters and hopefully you’ll have your home robbed while your away on vacation this weekend spend the money you stole from the sheep!

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

Ok… they filled the 1628.93 SPX gap finally! Only one more upside target left before it’s time to short this pig, and that’s about 1632… give or take a few cents.

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

This was filled by the way…. http://screencast.com/t/H0vIhKQv2Wf

Red Dragon Leo
10 years ago

Time to take a small short… for the brave that is! Have a good weekend everyone…

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