Red, appreciate your posts. Just wanted to make a comment for 2014. If the Fed Chairman’s non continuance is validated, than the market will definitely tank. This is definitely a big deal, and will be seen as a major change in policy.
He has presently introduced the possibility of reduced/tapering of bond buying in the near future. That comment dramatically altered markets almost immediately. Though there has been recovery, his recent comment on bond buying increased mortgage rates by over 10%, or .4%. That is astounding. No policy change or bond buying has changed but mortgage rates went up dramatically. Imagine if there was a change in bond buying by the Fed, what do you think would happen to mortgage rates? This is outright greed by the banks, and apparently shows the fragility of the housing market and current Fed policy. It also shows how the Fed is boxed in with a very limited alternatives.
Many FOMC meetings (http://federalreserve.gov/whatsnext.htm) produce turns in the market and since we have a 2 day meeting Tuesday and Wednesday I tend to think we’ll have another turn after the minutes are released around the usual 2:30pm time period.
Also note that Wednesday is another “eleven” day (0+6+1+9+2+0+1+3=22 or 11) which could be another reason to have a turn. Now since it appears like we are in a wave 2 up and should complete this final wave C up inside that wave 2 I suspect that we’ll be putting in a high on Wednesday… not a low. That implies that Wednesday will be the best day to go short again.
Didn’t have time this weekend to do a new video update gang so I’ll just type it out. The inverted head and shoulders on most all the indexes are playing out now. The target should be either the 1660 spx prior high or the 1674 prior high. Since the market is rigged heavily in favor of the bulls I tend to think they’ll go for the 1674 high and pierce a few points (but not go over the 1687 high).
The way I see this move it appears to be larger wave 2 up from the recent 1598 low. Inside this wave 2 we have the A wave up that ended at 1647 on 6/10, then the B wave down that ended at 1608 on 6/13, followed by the start of the C wave up. This is nothing more then a typical ABC wave 2 up as far as I can tell.
From the 6/13 the C wave up should breakdown into 5 waves with wave 1 up ending on 6/14 at 1640 and then wave 2 down ending the same day at 1624 spx. Today we seem to have started the wave 3 up inside the C wave up (still inside the wave 2 up). So when this wave rolls over it will be a wave 4 down with one finally wave 5 up yet to come.
My thoughts are that we’ll rise up to around 1660 for this wave 3 and then sell off into a wave 4 down that shouldn’t drop more then 20 points max. Then a wave 5 up either pierce through slightly, double top or fall short a hair of the 1674 prior high. It depends on how long it takes to do these waves but if we make a channel and the market stays in it, then we’ll likely fall short of the 1674 high.
Red, appreciate your posts. Just wanted to make a comment for 2014. If the Fed Chairman’s non continuance is validated, than the market will definitely tank. This is definitely a big deal, and will be seen as a major change in policy.
He has presently introduced the possibility of reduced/tapering of bond buying in the near future. That comment dramatically altered markets almost immediately. Though there has been recovery, his recent comment on bond buying increased mortgage rates by over 10%, or .4%. That is astounding. No policy change or bond buying has changed but mortgage rates went up dramatically. Imagine if there was a change in bond buying by the Fed, what do you think would happen to mortgage rates? This is outright greed by the banks, and apparently shows the fragility of the housing market and current Fed policy. It also shows how the Fed is boxed in with a very limited alternatives.
not too fast. I think we see 1670ish and zig-zag our way up thru mid-July around 1750
ES Charts: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/06/es-chart-analysis_18.html
CRUDE Oil testing golden ratio: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/06/crude-oil-testing-golden-ratio.html
Many FOMC meetings (http://federalreserve.gov/whatsnext.htm) produce turns in the market and since we have a 2 day meeting Tuesday and Wednesday I tend to think we’ll have another turn after the minutes are released around the usual 2:30pm time period.
Also note that Wednesday is another “eleven” day (0+6+1+9+2+0+1+3=22 or 11) which could be another reason to have a turn. Now since it appears like we are in a wave 2 up and should complete this final wave C up inside that wave 2 I suspect that we’ll be putting in a high on Wednesday… not a low. That implies that Wednesday will be the best day to go short again.
Didn’t have time this weekend to do a new video update gang so I’ll just type it out. The inverted head and shoulders on most all the indexes are playing out now. The target should be either the 1660 spx prior high or the 1674 prior high. Since the market is rigged heavily in favor of the bulls I tend to think they’ll go for the 1674 high and pierce a few points (but not go over the 1687 high).
The way I see this move it appears to be larger wave 2 up from the recent 1598 low. Inside this wave 2 we have the A wave up that ended at 1647 on 6/10, then the B wave down that ended at 1608 on 6/13, followed by the start of the C wave up. This is nothing more then a typical ABC wave 2 up as far as I can tell.
From the 6/13 the C wave up should breakdown into 5 waves with wave 1 up ending on 6/14 at 1640 and then wave 2 down ending the same day at 1624 spx. Today we seem to have started the wave 3 up inside the C wave up (still inside the wave 2 up). So when this wave rolls over it will be a wave 4 down with one finally wave 5 up yet to come.
My thoughts are that we’ll rise up to around 1660 for this wave 3 and then sell off into a wave 4 down that shouldn’t drop more then 20 points max. Then a wave 5 up either pierce through slightly, double top or fall short a hair of the 1674 prior high. It depends on how long it takes to do these waves but if we make a channel and the market stays in it, then we’ll likely fall short of the 1674 high.
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/SPX-06-16-2013-60min.jpg
FORD Motor weekend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/06/ford-motor-weekend-update.html
QQQ Weekend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/06/qqq-weekend-update_16.html
Blackberry charts: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/06/blackberry-resistance-levels.html
SPX Analysis after closing bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/06/s-500-analysis-after-closing-bell_14.html