Hmmm… number 2 could happen but I think number 1 will be what they do. Drop in tonight to hit the last of the bulls’ stops and then ram it up in the morning tomorrow is what I’d do if I were SkyNet.
Ok, it looks like the bottom is going to hold for today. The 60min and 2hr charts on the ES and the SPX are curling up and should cause the market to retrace some of this move down today. The daily and the 4hr chart still have room to go on the downside though, so I’m not sure how far they can rally today?
I’d say we will close in the red today but be up from the lows a decent amount. Depending on how much will determine if it ends today or continues higher tomorrow morning. That upper trendline on the triangle the market is in will of course drift lower tomorrow. If we rally up and hit it today into the close then they could gap over it tomorrow and try to hit last Wednesdays high.
I don’t really see that happening as the daily chart still looks ugly, but we should never underestimate SkyNet as it see’s where all the stops are and will want to take them out before reversing the other way. Today it took out all the bulls’ stops so tomorrow it could decide to go above the 1674 spx high from yesterday to clear the bears’ stops?
I don’t think it could hold up there at those levels because of the daily chart pointing down still but the 2hr, 60min and possibly the 4hr charts could give it enough juice to gap up there and fool everyone. Again, I’m really expecting that trendline to stop the bulls but hitting it into the close leaves us guessing and allows them to gap over it in the morning… or gap down and continue tanking?
The ideal situation was for them to hit that upper trendline (around 1660 spx now) between noon and 2pm, which would have allowed enough time for it to hold back the bulls and force it to rollover into the close. But if they continue up the rest of the day and hit it around the close then tomorrow will be a tough call.
However, thinking like SkyNet would tell me that the odds would favor a gap up over the trendline to take out the bears’ stops just above 1674 spx and then tank the rest of the day and into Friday with the lower trendline of support breaking on the next move down.
That lower trendline has broken so the chance of a rally today seems very slim. It should go up a little in the lunchtime period but it’s looking very much like the high was in yesterday. Between around 11:30 am and 2 pm is the key time frame to see if it’s got the strength to rally very much. If it trades mostly sideways then it’s making a bear flag and will likely tank into the close.
The first couple of hours is when the volume is the heaviest, so as long as that lower trendline holds there is a good chance they will attempt a rally to the upper trendline. The time period to look for that to happen is between noon and 2pm est. I don’t believe they will be able to breakout of this triangle and make a higher high then yesterday so I’d be looking to short when (if?) that upper trendline is hit.
The next move down from that hit should break the lower trendline of support and take out last weeks’ low as well. After that I don’t see much support until that gap fill area around 1597 spx, so that would be the point I’d exit my shorts at.
I forgot to mention … DNN is being accumulated very heavily.
FNMA update:
Support at 3.15 is now major resistance.
My gap of 2.07 was filled today.
Smart Money left the party and now dumb money is emotional about it.
Market should continue to drift lower tomorrow.
Hmmm… number 2 could happen but I think number 1 will be what they do. Drop in tonight to hit the last of the bulls’ stops and then ram it up in the morning tomorrow is what I’d do if I were SkyNet.
cruel market scenario yes take from both sides
lots of bull stops at 1636-4….notice how they didnt hit them today when they had the chance ??? 1638 held …why ?
1. they take them overnight when bulls r sleeping
2. bankers want more distribution of their HUGE inventory of expensive stocks -chop chop chop between 1644 and 1655 for a day then drop it
i like #2
Here’s the possible outcomes for today and tomorrow… http://screencast.com/t/HHbQk5ISIo3
FACEBOOK Trend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/05/facebook-trend-update.html
Ok, it looks like the bottom is going to hold for today. The 60min and 2hr charts on the ES and the SPX are curling up and should cause the market to retrace some of this move down today. The daily and the 4hr chart still have room to go on the downside though, so I’m not sure how far they can rally today?
I’d say we will close in the red today but be up from the lows a decent amount. Depending on how much will determine if it ends today or continues higher tomorrow morning. That upper trendline on the triangle the market is in will of course drift lower tomorrow. If we rally up and hit it today into the close then they could gap over it tomorrow and try to hit last Wednesdays high.
I don’t really see that happening as the daily chart still looks ugly, but we should never underestimate SkyNet as it see’s where all the stops are and will want to take them out before reversing the other way. Today it took out all the bulls’ stops so tomorrow it could decide to go above the 1674 spx high from yesterday to clear the bears’ stops?
I don’t think it could hold up there at those levels because of the daily chart pointing down still but the 2hr, 60min and possibly the 4hr charts could give it enough juice to gap up there and fool everyone. Again, I’m really expecting that trendline to stop the bulls but hitting it into the close leaves us guessing and allows them to gap over it in the morning… or gap down and continue tanking?
The ideal situation was for them to hit that upper trendline (around 1660 spx now) between noon and 2pm, which would have allowed enough time for it to hold back the bulls and force it to rollover into the close. But if they continue up the rest of the day and hit it around the close then tomorrow will be a tough call.
However, thinking like SkyNet would tell me that the odds would favor a gap up over the trendline to take out the bears’ stops just above 1674 spx and then tank the rest of the day and into Friday with the lower trendline of support breaking on the next move down.
Google Support and Resistance: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/05/google-support-and-resistance-levels.html
That lower trendline has broken so the chance of a rally today seems very slim. It should go up a little in the lunchtime period but it’s looking very much like the high was in yesterday. Between around 11:30 am and 2 pm is the key time frame to see if it’s got the strength to rally very much. If it trades mostly sideways then it’s making a bear flag and will likely tank into the close.
The first couple of hours is when the volume is the heaviest, so as long as that lower trendline holds there is a good chance they will attempt a rally to the upper trendline. The time period to look for that to happen is between noon and 2pm est. I don’t believe they will be able to breakout of this triangle and make a higher high then yesterday so I’d be looking to short when (if?) that upper trendline is hit.
The next move down from that hit should break the lower trendline of support and take out last weeks’ low as well. After that I don’t see much support until that gap fill area around 1597 spx, so that would be the point I’d exit my shorts at.