Again, I have found it common that the gangsters will mix the wave 2 up inside a down day so you miss it and aren’t able to get short before the wave 3 down starts. This morning is a perfect example where we should go up in an ABC pattern to make a wave 2 and then rollover into the close to start the wave 3 down.
It should continue into Friday morning and hopefully fill the gap at 1597 spx. The 1620 area should provide some support too but it’s a vacuum to 1597 if that breaks…. and it ‘should’ break if we start a wave 3 down today into the close. While it will likely hold today tomorrow morning it should gap below if they continue to trick the bulls and bears like they have in the past.
So we should look for that 11am-2pm time frame for the end of this ABC move up to complete the wave 2 pattern. Then I think it’s a good short into tomorrow for continued selling.
Obviously at this point there’s no bounce from that lower trendline in the rising channel that the market ‘has’ been in for quite awhile now. Instead they gaped down out of it and now the open looks to be at least 10 points down.
This means that the first support is at 1630 and then 1597 for the gap fill, but there is also a rising channel on the daily that puts support around 1580 spx… which would scare the hell out of the bulls. I’d really expect a powerful 2-3 day rally from that level though…
Too funny last night in the Washington-SF Giants baseball game last night.
With the game tied going into extra innings, the Nationals bring in pitcher Maya #31 in the tenth inning. This after former Nationals closer Storen could be seen warming up between innings. One just knew something dramatic was going to unfold and of course Maya obliged, coughing up a 2 run walkoff homer to the defending champs #48 ending the game at 4-2 (or2-4 from the Nationals point of view)
There was a nice ritualistic numerology flash preceding the walkoff homer a couple batters earlier when Nationals first baseman LaRoche #25 visited Maya on the mound producing the Maya #31—#25 combo. Maya then gave up a base hit to #19 and then the walkoff homer to #48.
Interestingly, Maya had just been called up from the minor leagues earlier in the day (naturally to perform his ritualistic duty) and placed into crucial spot immediately when the Nationals had more accomplished pitchers available (including their flame-throwing former closer)
Meanwhile, there was an obvious ritual performed in the Spurs-Memphis playoffs game when Spurs guard #20 flagrantly fouled Memphis’ #9 grabbing and holding on to his arm as he went up to finish a layup with the score at 81-85 Spurs with a few minutes left in the game. #9 proceeded to violently writhe around on the ground while dramatically clutching his head although no part of his head hit the floor. It was a very WWE like moment. I believe players #33 and #31 showed up in the frame as the 20-9 takedown was occurring.
On the other hand the “thinking like a gangster” side of me says we’ll gap down below the channel, then back test it and then sell off again into the close. Remember, everyone see’s this channel and is expecting a bounce tomorrow. The gangsters don’t usually give us what we expect do they?
What ‘if’ we gap down to support around 1630 area and then rally back to backtest that lower trendline on that rising channel, which I’d guess would be around 1660 area… and then we roll over into the close? Just saying… expect the unexpected.
Whether it started into the close or tomorrow is hard to say but an ABC move up for a wave 2 is still planned to happen. I can’t guarantee it will start tomorrow but it seems likely.
If we open up tomorrow morning with a gap up it will likely be shorted by late-comer bears and panicked bulls will exit as well. This will cause a move back down to come close to retesting the lows from today. The move up will be the ‘wave A’ and the move down will be the ‘wave B’, which leaves the ‘wave C’ back up (to complete the whole wave 2) should last until 11am to 2pm before ending.
I’d look for a retest of the opening area around 1670 spx from today as a likely target for the end of this ABC wave 2 up. The time frame will likely be the 11am-2pm lunchtime period just as you noted. Bulls will feel relaxed and happy and bears won’t believe the sell off has really started.
Then it should rollover into the last 2 hours of the day to start the wave 3 down that I think will end around the 1630 spx zone, but eventfully the final target for this 5 wave move down (inside a larger 80-100 point wave 1 down) should be that 1600 area for the gap fill.
The market is closed next Monday for a holiday so who knows how fast they will move this market down? If we see that gap fill by this Friday (unlikely, but possible) then I’d exit all shorts and expect all (or most of) next week to be up for the larger wave 2 back up to who knows where?
I’d guess at 1630 area at least but it’s hard to look that far out in advance. Regardless, the move after that should be the larger wave 3 down toward the eventual retest of the 1536 prior low. That should be out in June some time of course.
POMO ends at 11 red. So, if we get a bounce, that’s likeley the time for a reversal. Between 11-1, since lunchtime is usually weak. I’ll be looking to add short heavy around 11 assuming we’ve bounced
I’m looking for a backtest of this lower trendline in this rising channel today, and then rollover into the close. http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/287454750;
Again, I have found it common that the gangsters will mix the wave 2 up inside a down day so you miss it and aren’t able to get short before the wave 3 down starts. This morning is a perfect example where we should go up in an ABC pattern to make a wave 2 and then rollover into the close to start the wave 3 down.
It should continue into Friday morning and hopefully fill the gap at 1597 spx. The 1620 area should provide some support too but it’s a vacuum to 1597 if that breaks…. and it ‘should’ break if we start a wave 3 down today into the close. While it will likely hold today tomorrow morning it should gap below if they continue to trick the bulls and bears like they have in the past.
So we should look for that 11am-2pm time frame for the end of this ABC move up to complete the wave 2 pattern. Then I think it’s a good short into tomorrow for continued selling.
Not looking good for the US markets, that’s for certain… http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-23/japanese-stocks-plunge-over-800-points-biggest-drop-22-months
Obviously at this point there’s no bounce from that lower trendline in the rising channel that the market ‘has’ been in for quite awhile now. Instead they gaped down out of it and now the open looks to be at least 10 points down.
This means that the first support is at 1630 and then 1597 for the gap fill, but there is also a rising channel on the daily that puts support around 1580 spx… which would scare the hell out of the bulls. I’d really expect a powerful 2-3 day rally from that level though…
nikei limit down 2 times last night …..caught most of the move luckily since i was short looking for a B wave over night
we gotta think more intense bearish waves since soooo many were buying the QE idea ….W5 or W3 ….up all night trading my futures account
i am fully loaded with TZA in other accounts because of these gap down plays….overnight gap down is very hard to predict but TZA will capture the move
today will be nasty….violent
oooolala
SINKO DE MAYA TIME!!!!!!!
Too funny last night in the Washington-SF Giants baseball game last night.
With the game tied going into extra innings, the Nationals bring in pitcher Maya #31 in the tenth inning. This after former Nationals closer Storen could be seen warming up between innings. One just knew something dramatic was going to unfold and of course Maya obliged, coughing up a 2 run walkoff homer to the defending champs #48 ending the game at 4-2 (or2-4 from the Nationals point of view)
There was a nice ritualistic numerology flash preceding the walkoff homer a couple batters earlier when Nationals first baseman LaRoche #25 visited Maya on the mound producing the Maya #31—#25 combo. Maya then gave up a base hit to #19 and then the walkoff homer to #48.
Interestingly, Maya had just been called up from the minor leagues earlier in the day (naturally to perform his ritualistic duty) and placed into crucial spot immediately when the Nationals had more accomplished pitchers available (including their flame-throwing former closer)
Meanwhile, there was an obvious ritual performed in the Spurs-Memphis playoffs game when Spurs guard #20 flagrantly fouled Memphis’ #9 grabbing and holding on to his arm as he went up to finish a layup with the score at 81-85 Spurs with a few minutes left in the game. #9 proceeded to violently writhe around on the ground while dramatically clutching his head although no part of his head hit the floor. It was a very WWE like moment. I believe players #33 and #31 showed up in the frame as the 20-9 takedown was occurring.
Logical reading of the charts tell me an ABC wave 2 up will happen tomorrow morning as we held the channel here in this chart… http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/287454750;
On the other hand the “thinking like a gangster” side of me says we’ll gap down below the channel, then back test it and then sell off again into the close. Remember, everyone see’s this channel and is expecting a bounce tomorrow. The gangsters don’t usually give us what we expect do they?
What ‘if’ we gap down to support around 1630 area and then rally back to backtest that lower trendline on that rising channel, which I’d guess would be around 1660 area… and then we roll over into the close? Just saying… expect the unexpected.
ES update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/05/es-chart-analysis_23.html
Whether it started into the close or tomorrow is hard to say but an ABC move up for a wave 2 is still planned to happen. I can’t guarantee it will start tomorrow but it seems likely.
i count 5 waves down on the YMs….. the up move is a W2
bounce at the close was A wave of A-B-C
If we open up tomorrow morning with a gap up it will likely be shorted by late-comer bears and panicked bulls will exit as well. This will cause a move back down to come close to retesting the lows from today. The move up will be the ‘wave A’ and the move down will be the ‘wave B’, which leaves the ‘wave C’ back up (to complete the whole wave 2) should last until 11am to 2pm before ending.
I’d look for a retest of the opening area around 1670 spx from today as a likely target for the end of this ABC wave 2 up. The time frame will likely be the 11am-2pm lunchtime period just as you noted. Bulls will feel relaxed and happy and bears won’t believe the sell off has really started.
Then it should rollover into the last 2 hours of the day to start the wave 3 down that I think will end around the 1630 spx zone, but eventfully the final target for this 5 wave move down (inside a larger 80-100 point wave 1 down) should be that 1600 area for the gap fill.
The market is closed next Monday for a holiday so who knows how fast they will move this market down? If we see that gap fill by this Friday (unlikely, but possible) then I’d exit all shorts and expect all (or most of) next week to be up for the larger wave 2 back up to who knows where?
I’d guess at 1630 area at least but it’s hard to look that far out in advance. Regardless, the move after that should be the larger wave 3 down toward the eventual retest of the 1536 prior low. That should be out in June some time of course.
POMO ends at 11 red. So, if we get a bounce, that’s likeley the time for a reversal. Between 11-1, since lunchtime is usually weak. I’ll be looking to add short heavy around 11 assuming we’ve bounced