Ok, we have a couple of things that could happen tomorrow and both are bearish. First off we know that the FP will eventually be hit and wasn’t hit today, so that means we shouldn’t get married to any decent move down. Secondly we know that Bernanke is going to speak tomorrow morning before the open, which could be positive or negative.
If he says something positive and the market rallies up to hit the FP then I’d go short my last 1/3 position (in put spread for now as we aren’t starting a wave 3 here, where I’ll go with straight puts). If he says something negative then the market should sell off the rest of the day and drop 20-40 points from the current high.
My thoughts are that he will say something negative and make the market drop all day. I’m not saying some big huge drop but over 10 points at least. Remember, we have a gap at 1597 spx that needs to be filled so that could be the low on Monday morning. Historically the market makers will generally put in a low the Thursday or Friday prior to options expiration week to shake out the call holders.
Then they will rally the week of option expiration week to make the new put holders expire worthless too. Remember that the market makers goal is to steal money from both the bulls and bears, which is why you sometimes have a 2 day drop right prior to that last week.
I give this scenario the highest odds for that reason and 2 other reasons. One is the fact that I’ve seen the game played many times in the past where they will put out a FP and come shy of hitting it making me think that it was “close enough” and then I get short later after chasing the move down.
Then it reverses back up a week later (or more) to rally back up and not only hit the FP put pierce through it a little bit… then they sell off for real. This is common move to trick the bears the see the FP and realize what it is… or at least they think they do.
I firmly believe that FP was real and will be hit before we rollover for good so any move down we have I’ll be ready to exit my current shorts when I see a bounce coming… which I have a feeling it will be around that gap fill area.
The 2nd reason I think whatever Bernanke says will cause the market to continue down all day and not rally up to the FP first and then sell off is the fact that we haven’t made any negative divergence yet on the daily chart. In fact today is the first lower bar on the histogram chart.
It’s very common for the market to start making lower histogram bars while the market drops some and then go back up and make a lower “hump” of histogram bars to create the divergence while the actual price of the market goes higher. This would mean we should drop for a few days and then rally back up for 3-5 more days hitting that FP but making lower histogram bars on the daily chart.
This could be dragged out all next week and even into May 22nd just before the Legatus meeting starts. It’s hard to know if they plan on starting early on the 22nd or waiting until the meeting is over and topping on either the 27th or 29th. (I just remembered that the 27th is an “eleven” day too as it all adds up to 20 and that equals 2, which is 1+1 or eleven).
Picking the date will be tough of course but those 3 dates are my preferred targets. So if we don’t hit the FP tomorrow then I’m expecting it to be hit on one of those days. If so, then the first drop should go down to test the 1536 prior bottom.
Then a bounce for a wave 2 up and then a wave 3 down that should be in the 1420-1440 area before stopping. Of course these targets are subject to change but that’s what I see currently. For tomorrow and Monday I’m expecting a gap fill around 1597 at the very most and at the least at gap window around 1610 spx.
It’s rare that Bernanke speaks prior to the market opening which should tell you that whatever he says they want the market to react to it all day long… but what reaction do they want? The best trick would be to tank it 20 points or more and then calm things down over the weekend… and then open up on Monday with all those bears trapped once again. But I’m just guessing here, as only the gangsters know what’s really planned for tomorrow.
Australian dollar is crashing now…..dropped below its daily and weekly bbs and is already on a week 4 TD downcount (and clearing all support in a new downrange) so it looks like it should keep its downside momentum going. Comparable to gold’s silent crash.
I am just hoping gold can bounce back up to its 50 day average. It will do a bull flip next week unless it makes a massive drop by the end of next week. And usually bull flip weeks are massive white bar weeks.
I did a study last weekend and gold and commodities were already in advanced MONTHLY TD downcounts and their TD prior 4 month comparisons were going to get easier the next few months. I believe gold was alread in month 5 now and the meat of downmoves come in the 5-6 periods. 8 and 9 are usually bunched close to 6 and 7 closes making a bull flip easier. Euro has an easy monthly TD setup and crude oil is getting there as well having made three consecutive lower highs over the last few months. Stocks could get there too via a hard downmove pronto.
On the otherside, the US dollar has been establishing an easy monthly TD upcount where the comparisons will be getting easier over the next few months.
Hmmm… it certainly could pop and drop tomorrow. It’s not acting like it wants to hit the FP today, so hopefully it will do so tomorrow. However, if it keeps dropping into the close today and breaks down below 10 points or more then I’d have to think that it would continue down into Friday and put off the FP high until next week.
Yes, we could still hit it today… or tomorrow morning at the open I’d assume? It would be nice to do it today and then gap down tomorrow but the bears never usually get that lucky. If we do get today though I’ll be taking another put spread on it as this bull is on his last breath.
EURUSD Death cross an update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/05/eurusd-death-cross-update.html
Ok, we have a couple of things that could happen tomorrow and both are bearish. First off we know that the FP will eventually be hit and wasn’t hit today, so that means we shouldn’t get married to any decent move down. Secondly we know that Bernanke is going to speak tomorrow morning before the open, which could be positive or negative.
If he says something positive and the market rallies up to hit the FP then I’d go short my last 1/3 position (in put spread for now as we aren’t starting a wave 3 here, where I’ll go with straight puts). If he says something negative then the market should sell off the rest of the day and drop 20-40 points from the current high.
My thoughts are that he will say something negative and make the market drop all day. I’m not saying some big huge drop but over 10 points at least. Remember, we have a gap at 1597 spx that needs to be filled so that could be the low on Monday morning. Historically the market makers will generally put in a low the Thursday or Friday prior to options expiration week to shake out the call holders.
Then they will rally the week of option expiration week to make the new put holders expire worthless too. Remember that the market makers goal is to steal money from both the bulls and bears, which is why you sometimes have a 2 day drop right prior to that last week.
I give this scenario the highest odds for that reason and 2 other reasons. One is the fact that I’ve seen the game played many times in the past where they will put out a FP and come shy of hitting it making me think that it was “close enough” and then I get short later after chasing the move down.
Then it reverses back up a week later (or more) to rally back up and not only hit the FP put pierce through it a little bit… then they sell off for real. This is common move to trick the bears the see the FP and realize what it is… or at least they think they do.
I firmly believe that FP was real and will be hit before we rollover for good so any move down we have I’ll be ready to exit my current shorts when I see a bounce coming… which I have a feeling it will be around that gap fill area.
The 2nd reason I think whatever Bernanke says will cause the market to continue down all day and not rally up to the FP first and then sell off is the fact that we haven’t made any negative divergence yet on the daily chart. In fact today is the first lower bar on the histogram chart.
It’s very common for the market to start making lower histogram bars while the market drops some and then go back up and make a lower “hump” of histogram bars to create the divergence while the actual price of the market goes higher. This would mean we should drop for a few days and then rally back up for 3-5 more days hitting that FP but making lower histogram bars on the daily chart.
This could be dragged out all next week and even into May 22nd just before the Legatus meeting starts. It’s hard to know if they plan on starting early on the 22nd or waiting until the meeting is over and topping on either the 27th or 29th. (I just remembered that the 27th is an “eleven” day too as it all adds up to 20 and that equals 2, which is 1+1 or eleven).
Picking the date will be tough of course but those 3 dates are my preferred targets. So if we don’t hit the FP tomorrow then I’m expecting it to be hit on one of those days. If so, then the first drop should go down to test the 1536 prior bottom.
Then a bounce for a wave 2 up and then a wave 3 down that should be in the 1420-1440 area before stopping. Of course these targets are subject to change but that’s what I see currently. For tomorrow and Monday I’m expecting a gap fill around 1597 at the very most and at the least at gap window around 1610 spx.
It’s rare that Bernanke speaks prior to the market opening which should tell you that whatever he says they want the market to react to it all day long… but what reaction do they want? The best trick would be to tank it 20 points or more and then calm things down over the weekend… and then open up on Monday with all those bears trapped once again. But I’m just guessing here, as only the gangsters know what’s really planned for tomorrow.
Australian dollar is crashing now…..dropped below its daily and weekly bbs and is already on a week 4 TD downcount (and clearing all support in a new downrange) so it looks like it should keep its downside momentum going. Comparable to gold’s silent crash.
I am just hoping gold can bounce back up to its 50 day average. It will do a bull flip next week unless it makes a massive drop by the end of next week. And usually bull flip weeks are massive white bar weeks.
I did a study last weekend and gold and commodities were already in advanced MONTHLY TD downcounts and their TD prior 4 month comparisons were going to get easier the next few months. I believe gold was alread in month 5 now and the meat of downmoves come in the 5-6 periods. 8 and 9 are usually bunched close to 6 and 7 closes making a bull flip easier. Euro has an easy monthly TD setup and crude oil is getting there as well having made three consecutive lower highs over the last few months. Stocks could get there too via a hard downmove pronto.
On the otherside, the US dollar has been establishing an easy monthly TD upcount where the comparisons will be getting easier over the next few months.
And what if it does? I think they’ll hold 15,000 but still close red.
Dow cannot have a negative close today
Hmmm… it certainly could pop and drop tomorrow. It’s not acting like it wants to hit the FP today, so hopefully it will do so tomorrow. However, if it keeps dropping into the close today and breaks down below 10 points or more then I’d have to think that it would continue down into Friday and put off the FP high until next week.
FACEBOOK Support and Resistance levels: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/05/facebook-support-and-resistance-levels.html
pop and drop tomorrow?
All aboard the bull train…
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/bull-train-overloaded.jpg
Yes, we could still hit it today… or tomorrow morning at the open I’d assume? It would be nice to do it today and then gap down tomorrow but the bears never usually get that lucky. If we do get today though I’ll be taking another put spread on it as this bull is on his last breath.