As previously stated, I expected many AB signals to non-confirm as we chop, chop, chop. We've set a lower low since Carl posted his update, but we haven't taken out the overnight low (as I understand, I don't have a /es futures feed).
I knew that the bearish case was still intact when I saw DRV play out an IHS today with a target of 8.76. We'll see if it gets there…
Want to point something out about the $NYMO. As of last night, it was above the 0 line (updates at 5:00PM everyday). If we have a small move down today (like down 30-40 points which seems probable), then I expect it to touch the 0 line and then bounce off of it and continue to zig zag for a few more days/week (like it did back near Jan 19th) and then plunge which will send the markets lower. If it zig zags, that could bring market prices slightly higher until it plunges through the 0 line. I figure based on Sundancers containment points that we would have to get to around 1185 or so on the SPX in order for the IYR to reach 53. Notice that on Jan 19th (the last top), the $NYMO had just busted through the 0 line. Alternatively, if we make a bigger move down today, perhaps it will bust through the 0 line today and when that happens, it typically plunges to oversold levels (bringing the market down with it). Then I would expect a more substantiated move down, at least in the short term. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$nymo
Agreed. Carl sees downside as temporary, and upside as the general direction.
I still have my TNA from yesterday. I'm combining Carl's upside bias with AmericanBulls' TNA buy yesterday. As I understand it, AB does not sell the day after a buy signal.
Well, I sure do.
TNA is hanging around in the general vicinity of the pivot line ($56.71), which is my comfort zone, so I'm hanging in there. My trade is up at the moment, but that comes and goes.
This is fairly normal near a top. Carl gets confused because his indicators start to break down. Remember that Carl's bias is bullish — he thinks breakout / shakeout / breakout instead of “false breakout” / “make people chase” / “tank it for real”. Time will tell if he's right.
I'm still in my DRV (bought at 8.70, currently down about 1.5%).
you've heard me talking about high close (HC), we got that yesterday on the $SPX, then today the ritual gap down
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44598…
3 consecutive lower closes than opens on the $SPX and we're on our way to the de-leverage pt.
As previously stated, I expected many AB signals to non-confirm as we chop, chop, chop. We've set a lower low since Carl posted his update, but we haven't taken out the overnight low (as I understand, I don't have a /es futures feed).
I knew that the bearish case was still intact when I saw DRV play out an IHS today with a target of 8.76. We'll see if it gets there…
Want to point something out about the $NYMO. As of last night, it was above the 0 line (updates at 5:00PM everyday). If we have a small move down today (like down 30-40 points which seems probable), then I expect it to touch the 0 line and then bounce off of it and continue to zig zag for a few more days/week (like it did back near Jan 19th) and then plunge which will send the markets lower. If it zig zags, that could bring market prices slightly higher until it plunges through the 0 line. I figure based on Sundancers containment points that we would have to get to around 1185 or so on the SPX in order for the IYR to reach 53. Notice that on Jan 19th (the last top), the $NYMO had just busted through the 0 line. Alternatively, if we make a bigger move down today, perhaps it will bust through the 0 line today and when that happens, it typically plunges to oversold levels (bringing the market down with it). Then I would expect a more substantiated move down, at least in the short term.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$nymo
Agreed. Carl sees downside as temporary, and upside as the general direction.
I still have my TNA from yesterday. I'm combining Carl's upside bias with AmericanBulls' TNA buy yesterday. As I understand it, AB does not sell the day after a buy signal.
Well, I sure do.
TNA is hanging around in the general vicinity of the pivot line ($56.71), which is my comfort zone, so I'm hanging in there. My trade is up at the moment, but that comes and goes.
Carl could be right or he could not be. I have more faith in you.
And sadly I think it may get close to there.
This is fairly normal near a top. Carl gets confused because his indicators start to break down. Remember that Carl's bias is bullish — he thinks breakout / shakeout / breakout instead of “false breakout” / “make people chase” / “tank it for real”. Time will tell if he's right.
I'm still in my DRV (bought at 8.70, currently down about 1.5%).
Carl just raised his low for the day from 1156 to 1161.25.
I'm getting a bit dizzy.
Duh… you're right. I didn't fully read the question.
Perhaps subconsciously Red is answering the right question.