I’m looking for a bottom today guys… and probably within the next couple of hours. While the short term charts are bearish and the market looks ready to rollover it just “feels” like they won’t let it. I think would could get a few more points lower (maybe to 1577 spx?) and that will probably be it for the day.
Outlook for next week is “sunny and cloudy” weather with chop all week long likely. Next week I don’t expect any more moves lower then what we are seeing today. Crazy huh? But these gangsters are likely going to turn this pig back up as by early next week all the short term charts will reset back to bullish mode.
Just from prior history a double top is something to be shorted. The question will be how far will they allow it to drop? One thing is certain though… we are going up too fast for this thing to stretch out until my May 22nd target date for the final high (in the 1630-1650 zone). This leads me to believe we are going to top in early May and drop down for the first wave 1 down and then back up for the wave 2 into either the preferred date of May 22nd or the alternate date of May 29th.
Personally I won’t be shorting this double top as I just have a funny feeling that they won’t drop it more then 20 points or so… meaning it’s not worth my time to short it and take on that much risk. In fact, I think they will chop around in a zone just below the 1597 high for a week or two to frustrate both bulls and bears.
Then when the time is right they will pierce through and hit the 1630 zone to squeeze out every last bear that will have been acquiring short position in the 2 weeks choppy zone… and to get every bull on board long. That’s what I’d do if I were a gangsters.
Looking at dates I see the 11th as a “daily” ritual eleven but it seems too far out, so I’m not sure on that date? I’d be leaning more toward the week of May 6th to 10th, with the early part of that week being the most likely period. This is based on prior history of similar topping zones and how long they lasted.
If so, then we could drop into my May 22nd date for a wave 1 down, with a wave 2 up possibly completing on the next ritual “eleven” day of May 29th. That’s 3 trading days after the Legatus meeting which is May 23rd-25th. If that is a top for this wave 2 up then wave 3 down will be the one that starts around the 29th… which was always my gut feeling anyway.
I never thought we’d have a wave 1 down after Legatus but I couldn’t put the pieces together to get the wave counts right. Now I think a better picture is emerging… which has us topping early in May and then topping again right after Legatus. I’ll have to do a new post on this after I study more… maybe this weekend?
Thanks Mr. Red……watching now 1591 (right here)….a pull back from there before heading up to 1600+ wish I new for sure…..smile! no pos either way right now….
Well gang, no hope for the bears. Just hang in there as shorting yesterday for only a 20 point down was too risky anyway. I did think they would drop back a little, and I was looking to get long for the final move up to the 1630-1650 spx zone, but it never happened. So I wait…
GOLD Reacting from broken support line: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/04/gold-reacting-from-broken-support-line.html
I’m looking for a bottom today guys… and probably within the next couple of hours. While the short term charts are bearish and the market looks ready to rollover it just “feels” like they won’t let it. I think would could get a few more points lower (maybe to 1577 spx?) and that will probably be it for the day.
Outlook for next week is “sunny and cloudy” weather with chop all week long likely. Next week I don’t expect any more moves lower then what we are seeing today. Crazy huh? But these gangsters are likely going to turn this pig back up as by early next week all the short term charts will reset back to bullish mode.
AMAZON Bull Flag pattern: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/04/amazon-bull-flag-pattern.html
SPY Chart update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/04/spy-chart-update.html
I think 15-20 points down is all they will give the bears Seawind…. then chop for a week or two.
Just from prior history a double top is something to be shorted. The question will be how far will they allow it to drop? One thing is certain though… we are going up too fast for this thing to stretch out until my May 22nd target date for the final high (in the 1630-1650 zone). This leads me to believe we are going to top in early May and drop down for the first wave 1 down and then back up for the wave 2 into either the preferred date of May 22nd or the alternate date of May 29th.
Personally I won’t be shorting this double top as I just have a funny feeling that they won’t drop it more then 20 points or so… meaning it’s not worth my time to short it and take on that much risk. In fact, I think they will chop around in a zone just below the 1597 high for a week or two to frustrate both bulls and bears.
Then when the time is right they will pierce through and hit the 1630 zone to squeeze out every last bear that will have been acquiring short position in the 2 weeks choppy zone… and to get every bull on board long. That’s what I’d do if I were a gangsters.
Looking at dates I see the 11th as a “daily” ritual eleven but it seems too far out, so I’m not sure on that date? I’d be leaning more toward the week of May 6th to 10th, with the early part of that week being the most likely period. This is based on prior history of similar topping zones and how long they lasted.
If so, then we could drop into my May 22nd date for a wave 1 down, with a wave 2 up possibly completing on the next ritual “eleven” day of May 29th. That’s 3 trading days after the Legatus meeting which is May 23rd-25th. If that is a top for this wave 2 up then wave 3 down will be the one that starts around the 29th… which was always my gut feeling anyway.
I never thought we’d have a wave 1 down after Legatus but I couldn’t put the pieces together to get the wave counts right. Now I think a better picture is emerging… which has us topping early in May and then topping again right after Legatus. I’ll have to do a new post on this after I study more… maybe this weekend?
Nice timing…..CBOE…..
Thanks Mr. Red……watching now 1591 (right here)….a pull back from there before heading up to 1600+ wish I new for sure…..smile! no pos either way right now….
Well gang, no hope for the bears. Just hang in there as shorting yesterday for only a 20 point down was too risky anyway. I did think they would drop back a little, and I was looking to get long for the final move up to the 1630-1650 spx zone, but it never happened. So I wait…
GOLD Chart update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/04/gold-chart-update_25.html