Will A Pullback Happen After A Double Top From The 2007 High?

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Barron's April 22nd, 2013 Magazine Edition Tells Us The High Is Near!

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLzB7i1MyRE)

Red

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(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxa8k7pGpAA)

Hitting the old 2007 high seems certain now, and after it's hit a several week pullback should follow...

The spoken (but of course not guaranteed) rule is that the longer the period between one prior top and it's double top in the making the stronger the resistance.  Therefore the odds are much higher for a pullback before making a third attempt to pierce through that double top and make a new all time.  As for how far and how long the pullback will be is usually based on how overbought the market is on the various time frames.  Looking at the daily, weekly, and monthly charts one could argue for a several week pullback versus just a few days... and I personally concur with that logic as well.

I'm going to present two different scenarios here but both have the market pulling back next week.  Each scenario is just the longer term wave count but in reality the only difference in the price level of the market and not the expected periods of the highs and lows.  Since I'm not an Elliottwave expert I'm going to study the charts of someone that is, and input possible future wave counts with likely date periods for the highs and lows.  One of the counts puts a new all time high next year and the other puts it this year.  But both counts still give us the important turning periods.

Scenario One...

First, lets go over what I said in the last post.  I proposed that we would top in the first week of April and then sell off for several weeks toward the end of the month.  I was thinking that wave down was going to be a wave 1 down with the move back up starting in late April and likely ending in late May (with the 22nd being my target date) being called wave 2 up.  Then a wave 3 would follow which would be one very nasty panic wave of selling.  This was also based on the high being hit in the first week of April to be nicely above the prior all time high of 1576.09 SPX in 2007.  My thoughts were that we'd do some type of ritual number like 1666, just like they bottomed at 666 in March of 2009... and had an intraday low of 333.33 on the day that the high was put in for the year of 1987 before the crash that followed later that year (that date was 08/25/1987).

While hitting 1666 would probably be very obvious to any "red pill taker" today (and even some "blue pill takers" would figure it out too) the odds of that happening on Monday, (the ritual "eleven" date) seem very slim with the SPX closing at 1569.19 on Friday.  This leaves the next ritual "eleven" date of April the 10th for that possible high happening.  But I just don't think that's the way it's going to play out now.  I've been doing more studying of what happened in the past and I now am going to give that scenario low odds and go with the second scenario that I'm going to go over now.

Scenario Two...

I was reading Tony Caldaro's blog last week (which I haven't done in a very long time) as I wanted to get his Elliottwave count on all the various waves and see if I'm missing something.  Sure enough I did indeed overlook something (assuming history repeats itself?), which I didn't go looking for until I seen Tony's wave count was different then mine.  Since I'm not an expert at EW theory and Tony is I decided to go back in the past to see if it was possible that his wave count could play out (and to see if it had happened in the past as well).

So what is his wave count and how is it different from mine?  Of course I'll go over that in the video but let me see if I can explain it here for you as well.  Tony proposes that we are in an "intermediate wave 3" up right now inside a larger "major wave 3" up... inside an even larger "primary wave 3" up.  His count would suggest that we still could drop for an "intermediate wave 4" down anytime now, which I suspect will be on Monday when (and "if"?) we hit the double top zone of 1576.09 spx (hopefully pierce it by a few points), which could last 2-4 weeks toward the end of April.  This then leaves the wave up into the late May Legatus meeting to be a final "intermediate wave 5" up and not a wave 2 as I previously thought.

This also means that the current coming double top zone must be broken for that to be a valid "intermediate wave 5" up.  I'm thinking we'll hit 1610-1630 spx around that May 22nd ritual date now, which obviously won't be the wave 2 up like I previously thought but the final 5th wave up (intermediate) inside a larger "major wave 3" up.  This would setup the first wave down from that May peak to be an "intermediate wave 1" (or wave A I guess?) inside a larger "major wave 4" down.  The start of major wave 3 up was 1266.74 spx on 06/04/2012, which leaves a lot of room for big 5 wave (intermediate) panic sell off to happen.

But, here's where I disagree with Tony...

Tony states on his weekend post that he see's the top for the bull market in February or April of 2014... which of course there just happens to be a Legatus meeting then too!  Coincidental?  He also see's a high of 1650-1700 spx, which I see a ritual number like 1666 spx, so we agree on those two points. But I don't understand his wave count that he has laid out because it would project the market way higher then this 1650-1700 top area.  Let me explain... if we follow the plan with his wave count into May and put in a high of 1610-1630 that will complete the intermediate wave 5 up and the major wave 3 up then the first of a suspected 5 wave (or 3 wave) intermediate wave series down should start.  This also starts major wave 4 down, which again needs to stay above 1266.74 to be valid... but that leave major wave 5 up that needs to take out the late May high of major wave 3 (thinking 1610-1630).

So if that happens to be his 1650-1700 target just how do that end the bull market?  That only would complete major wave 5 up inside primary wave 3 up.  Where does primary wave 4 down and primary wave 5 up come into play?  My speculation is that primary waves one, two, and three are really A, B, and C and there won't be a 4th wave down and 5th wave up, as if there were the high would be closer to 2000 spx... and I just can't see that happening.  The other alternate is that the major wave count is wrong and the move down in May starts primary wave 4 down and that top completed all the major waves up.  Then we could go down as deep as 1074.77 to make a primary wave 4 down and back up to 1666 for primary wave 5 up.

This lines up with Tony's call for a final high in early 2014 but ironically doesn't match is wave count?  I'm not sure if I'm missing something here but I've went over this many times now and I can't make the waves match up with his target for the end of the bull market... not unless you change the label's of the current waves.  But I guess the wave patterns aren't really that important as the most important thing here is to catch the turning points correctly so we can all make money from the moves.

Therefore, I still calling for an important top this week with April 1st being the most likely date...

Then a 18-20 calendar day sell off seems likely... if history repeats itself.  Followed by a rally into the next Legatus meeting May 23rd-25th, 2013 with the most likely topping date being on May 22d (which is a double "eleven" date).  Whether that date is accurate or not remains to be seen... and some how I wouldn't doubt that it won't be accurate just because I've been talking about it so much lately.  If the gangsters read this blog (and I"m sure they do) then they will most likely change the date just so I'm wrong.  So just take that date as potential date and not something written in stone.  Many, but not all, important tops are on "eleven" days... which I'd guess at 30-40% of them are.  That's actually pretty high considering that they could land on a one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, or ten day just as easily... which when adding in the 11th day you have odd's of only around 9% for each number.  Therefore hitting "11" 30-40% of the time isn't normal... unless of course it's planned.  😉

Backing up a little, I mentioned that I looked back in the past to see if Tony's wave count every happened or something similar... and something sparked my eye.  When the high was put in on 03/24/2000 of 1552.87 spx it was truly and "all time new high" that there wasn't anything even close to it in the past to compare it with.  That was the intraday high and the closing high was 1527.57 which was revisited on 09/01/2000 when an intraday high of 1530.09 was reached but failed to hold and closed at 1520.77 spx.  That was the last time the market would see that level until 2007 came along.

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACvZH2YSTiM

Seven years after that 2000 top the market hit 1555.90 spx on 07/16/2007 with it's intraday high.  It couldn't hold that high, (which was just 3.23 points over the intraday prior high), and closed at 1549.52 that day.  The market then dropped Tuesday and continued into Wednesday the 18th for the first wave 1 down.  It put in a nice bottoming tail on Wednesday and rallied hard on Thursday the 19th to hit 1555.20 as an intraday high.  That move completed the wave 2 up which was followed by the start of the wave 3 down on Friday the 20th.  That move lasted for 18 calendar days until wave 3 down bottomed on Monday 08/06/2007 with and intraday low of 1427.39, or 133.51 points in total from the top.

Then you had a wave 4 up that lasted 3 days topping that Wednesday the 8th, and then a wave 5 down that lasted until an intraday low of 1370.60 was hit on Thursday August 16th, 2007.  The total 5 wave move down was 185.30 points in total and 28 calendar days.  What's important to see here is that a double top that happens after 7 long years did indeed produce a very nice sell off.  That's why I'm also expecting a similar type of sell to start this week when we hit (and slightly breakthrough the 1576.09 double top from 10/11/2007.

This all leads me up to May 22nd for another all time high and sell off to follow...

I'm not going to go count all the waves made prior to 07/16/2007 high (from 2000) as you can study Tony's charts for that... or a dozen other EW chartists.  The thing that caught my eye the most about this period was the fact that after the 2000 high was broken the market did sell off, but more importantly it recovered to make again another new "all time" high on October 11th, 2007, which was 1576.09... a 20.19 point move higher then just a few months back.  This supports Tony's theory that we are in intermediate wave 3, which if tops on April the 1st and drops for 2-4 weeks to make intermediate wave 4, then intermediate wave 5 up should be around 20 points (or so) higher then this early April high.  And if that high is say 1580 then 1600 or more seem reasonable for late May.  My thoughts are for a little higher move (1610-1630) as rarely do patterns repeat exactly.

Besides that, if you are going to have a 1929 style crash this time around (and I believe we are) then you should certainly go a little higher then everyone expects.  If you get up to 1610, 1620, or even 1630 spx in late May then I'm pretty sure every bear will go back into his cave and give up for the year... only to miss the really nasty bear feast that should follow.  Remember that this major wave 4 down can be as low as 1266.74 (the start of 3 up and the end of 2 down), which is over 400 points from where we are now.  That could very well end up being primary wave 4 down (which is my thoughts) if Tony's count on the market being in a major wave 3 up is wrong.

I personally thing we will complete not only the intermediate wave 5 up in late May but also the major wave 5 up.  I can't figure out how the wave count really could line up but it makes more sense to be starting Primary wave 4 down in May (to end in Sept/Oct 2013) followed by Primary wave 5 up into spring of 2014.  I say that because I believe the sell off to start in late May will likely be faster then many will expect, much like the 2011 summer sell off was.  I really see it as being a primary wave 4 down with primary 5 up into spring of 2014 ending the whole rally from the 2009 low.  Tony's the expert here on EW counts and then only thing I can't figure out is those major wave's.  For this to work out as I expect both the 3rd primary wave up and the 5th major wave up must end in late May.

Brief update from Ali...

Ali hasn't any new updates per-say as nothing has changed.  But he did email a few days ago with more supporting evidence that this move down in May will be a very, very nasty wave... which is why I think it will be a primary wave 4 down (which can go as low as 1074.77 to still be valid), and now just a major wave 4 down inside a primary wave 3 up.

Uranus 17-Year Cycle... you may examine the cycle in detail back to 1897. We are currently in a 17-year sideways-to-down cycle that began in the year 2000. Each sideways-to-down cycle contains a mid-cycle panic as Uranus crosses the 36° harmonic, as it did in October, 2007.

October 2007 Uranus 36° Harmonic... This resulted in the corresponding top in the markets, leading to the 2008 crash. As a matter of fact, this cycle is interwoven with Venus-Earth 13-year cycle which is going to peak in late May. I assume that the bearish market could continue into early 2017, of course with some bumps on the road, for example we are going to have a major turning point in October of 2015 which could be a bottom.

Ali Firoozi Yasar

Let's also not forget that 2013 is the year of the snake and May is the month of the snake, which 2001 was (911 happened), 1941 was (pearl harbor), and of course 1929.  Good things don't happen too much during snake years I guess?  Throw in the all the stuff we have covered in this post and prior posts, and I think we have some really good odds here for a bear feast to occur.  So I'll be looking to short the market Monday, April the 1st (will it be April fools day for the bulls?) if they hit the prior all time high of 1576.09 (and hopefully pierce it a little).

Obviously I'm not going to pass up a chance to profit from another 133.51 point drop like what happened from 07/16/2007 to 08/06/2007... not to imply that it's going to be that exact amount again, as that's highly unlikely.  But never the less, a very nice move down should be coming over the next several weeks and I think it's worth shorting.  History shows it to be accurate and the gangsters were manipulating the stock market back then too, just like they are today.  The part that most bears won't see will be the rally back up from the late April low.  I think they will all be expecting a wave 2 up (like I was in the last post) so they can catch the wave 3 down.

Unfortunately I think they will all be sadly taken for their money once again as the market will very likely repeat something similar to 2007 where the rally back up didn't put in a lower high but instead rallied up 20 more points higher and put in a new all time high.  This will squeeze every last bear out of the market for sure as very few people will be expecting such a powerful rally to start in late April, early May.  In fact everyone will be chanting "sell in May and go away"... only to see a rip roaring rally the first 3 weeks of May that will blow the tires off the bear bus!  Those bears will be stranded once again just when they thought they were ready to go over the mountain and down into the bull abyss!

On top of that I also expect the bulls to miss a lot of that rally too as they will have some really big scars from the early April bear attacks.  Most will be hesitant to go long and will miss the rally.  Can't blame them really as after a new high is reached on April 1st who would believe that there would be another higher "new high" to come in late May?  I'd go so far as to say that the bull will also think the rally up is just a wave 2 and become bears at some point trying to short it at some Fibonacci level all the way up... only to get squeeze themselves and propel the rally that much more.  After that 1610-1630 level is hit I think there won't be any bears let on the planet... except for me (and those of you reading this post).  🙂

Red

 

 

 

 

220 COMMENTS

  1. Friday was 10 trading days off the nominal high earlier ala the March 2000 double top. This time with the new high on Friday there were substantial divergences seen with the European markets which were no way near their previous highs 10 days earlier.

    Friday was also a Fib 89 trading days from the November 16 low.

  2. Gang I am still not short because 1576.09 spx hasn’t been taken out yet. The April 1st call is just because it’s another ritual “eleven” date and that 30% to 40% of important tops seem to be on ritual dates. There is another ritual “eleven” date on the 10th, but they don’t have to top on one. The important thing to remember here is that the all time high is like a magnet for the bulls and I just don’t think they will stop until they hit it. I’m waiting on that, and it doesn’t matter if it’s a ritual “eleven” date or just some random day… focus on the target, which is a slight pierce of that high.

  3. On the shorter term (like the 60 minute chart) I believe we are still in some kind of 5th wave up… probably called a minute wave 5th by EW people. Doesn’t matter the label as it’s likely the final wave up inside intermediate wave 3 up, which started last December at 1343… and from the looks of things we could hit it today or early tomorrow?

    • I’m looking for a nice solid white candle up day to take out the 1576.09 spx prior high, which could be tomorrow as you pointed out Peter? An overnight rally that gaps up at the open tomorrow (over that level) would do the most damage to the bears mentally.

      Then chop sideways all day putting in a bull flag at the close (similar to 02/27/2013), with then one final higher high on Thursday (like 02/28/2013) followed by a sell off on Friday (maybe like 02/20/2013) is what I’m looking for. That should start the first smaller wave 1 down that I think will be 25-40 points and last 2-3 days long.

      • Yes Peter… in about 60 days or less we should be making a bunch (assuming all goes as planned?). Then when they go out for wreck number 4 and bring it up… we’ll anyone that holds that long will probably be rich. 🙂

  4. Well I’ll try to post again……
    Thanks for the post Mr. Red….
    Once a pullback starts…..What will the media say to explain it….hmmmmmmm North Korea????

        • Sorry for the late reply Peter, this new disqus doesn’t show your comment at the top like the old one did. So you have to go scrolling through looking for something new. Really stinks…

          Anyway, I’m looking for 200-400 points down on the SPX from the coming sell off starting in late May with the 22nd being the most likely day for the final high. Of course do keep in mind that I’ll likely be wrong on that day as the gangsters read this blog and will make me wrong just because they can.

    • Needs to be one more wave up to 1580-1590 zone to take out these retail bears. Call it a final C wave up inside a final 5th wave up or something like that? Doesn’t matter as I’m not shorting until 1576.09 SPX is taken out. For all I know they could chop this around and not put in that new all time high until the next “eleven” day (which is the 10th, next Wednesday). Doesn’t seem likely but anything is possible.

  5. It is entirely possible that the high of 1573.66 SPX is all we are going to get for now. They could have decided to stop around 3 points down from the previous high instead of going over it by 3 points like how the 1555.90 (07/16/2007) was when compared to the 1552.87 (03/24/2000).

    If so, then this could have ended that intermediate wave 3 up and we are now starting the smaller wave 1 down inside a larger intermediate wave 4 down. This 5 wave move that makes up intermediate wave 4 down could be 100 points (the one from 07/16/2007 was 133 points). I’m now going to look for the next wave up to be a smaller wave 2, just like the 1555.20 peak was on 07/19/2007… followed by the smaller wave 3 down that we are all looking forward to.

    Remember that the “operators” of this game called the stock market have too change things up a little to keep us sheep guessing. Sometimes they give us clues like today when they closed the DOW down 111.66 points. Is that a signal that the high is in now? Could be?

    The key here to watch is to see how powerful this rally back up is? Will it be a smaller wave 2 and only retrace 50% or even 38.2% of the sell off we just had or will it go up to take out the all time high of 1576.09 (maybe by the next “eleven” day of April 10th)? We’ll have to play this close here and look for news events or reports that can move the market hard.

    Possibly they use the jobs data to spark a rally that does take out the prior high or maybe it’s a non-event and will only produce a smaller wave 2 up? Either way I’m now waiting on this move up before shorting. I missed this move down (obviously) as it never occurred to me that the could do the opposite this time around (meaning miss the prior high by 3 points instead of going over by 3 points).

    Ah… the life of an “operator”, who’s sole job is to trick us sheep and steal our money. What a wonderful place they will have waiting for them in the afterlife!

  6. Well, it’s pretty obvious when D-Day will occur now and the market needed to top yesterday 4-2 if it was going to do a traditional trading day decline into D-Day (the real 42——by the way 42 will be released next week???)

    Now let’s get back to the NCAA tourney—–1987 NCAA champ Indiana was eliminated last weekend by its 1987 nemesis Syracuse. Meanwhile, Louisville led by another 1987 Final Four coach, Rick Pitino has made it to the Final 4 joining Syracuse. The star of the 1987 Indiana team, Steve Alford was the New Mexico head coach who was upset by Harvard in the PI matchup (3-14 seed faceoff).

    Afterwards, he signed a ten year 20 million + plus extension with New Mexico but then bolted ship when traditional power UCLA wooed him to be their next coach.

    Going back to the Harvard-New Mexico matchup, Harvard’s head coach was on the 1987 Duke squad that was eliminated by eventual champion Indiana in the Final 4. He also was Michigan’s previous coach. Michigan has now returned the Final 4, the first time since the Fab 5 era (45???) in 19(93)???. Don’t really understand the Michigan connection but Michigan might be a Bradley state???

    • Michigan won an NCAA championship in 1989 or 24 years ago so that helps explain some of the connection.

      Michigan’s star guard Burke scored 20 points and 10 assists in the Sweet 16, the first guard to do so since Billy Donovan of Providence (coached by Pitino) in 1987. Donovan of course is Florida’s head coach and they were eliminated in the Elite 8 by Michigan.

  7. I think the bottom is about in now gang and we should start back up tomorrow and into early next week. We could still hit a new high above 1576.09 and that “could” happen on Wednesday the 10th as that’s another ritual “eleven” day.

  8. Looking back at 2007 they closed near the 1552 spx 2000 high on a Friday and then the following Monday they hit 1555.90 for the final high before a 133 point drop followed. Will history repeat? A close tomorrow in the 1570 range is possible and then a gap up open on Monday to clear the 1576.09 high by a few points…. then a sell off to follow.

    Monday is the 8th, which is 0+4+0+8+2+0+1+3=18, and 1+8=9… which is the number of completion. Could we hit a few points over 1576.09 at the open? I think it’s looking more and more likely to happen. I’ll be patiently waiting…

  9. Good morning gang. Here’s what I’m expecting…

    Choppy all day today with a possible move up into the close. Tuesday we should see our rally that carry’s over into Wednesday for a final peak just shy of the recent 1573 spx high. It could stretch out until Thursday morning I guess but I’m thinking it puts in the high on Wednesday.

    What I think we have here is a 3 wave move down (possibly 5 wave… on the 60 minute chart) from the 1573 high to the 1539 low, which makes up the first smaller wave 1 down. Then toward the end of the day on Friday we appear to have started the first A wave up inside the smaller wave 2 up.

    Today we should see the continuation of the A wave up and/or start the B wave down. Then the C wave up could be a nice solid white candle on the daily chart, which should squeeze any bears getting short right now. If that happens on “Turn around Tuesday” then it could conclude on Wednesday at some point.

    It depends on how high up it goes I guess for how early it ends on Wednesday. If it’s up quite a bit then it could end at the open on Wednesday. If this thing drags it’s feet then we could be delayed by one day on all of this forecast and see the big move up on Wednesday and the conclusion on Thursday.

    One thing to remember is that old saying about “The low is usually put in on the Thursday or Friday the week before option expiration”. That saying is accurate a lot as the market makers don’t want to payout to option holders so they manipulate the market the opposite direction the week of expiration every month (on the monthly options mainly, not the weekly).

    Now since I’m thinking that we are heavily overloaded on the call side of things right now it’s looking more and more like the top will happen on either Wednesday or Thursday, which is means the market makers will do the opposite this time and put in the high prior to option expiration next Friday.

  10. This A wave up (inside a wave 2 up) looks like it continued today as I really am not sure if we had a B down yet? This means we could see the B down tomorrow, which might only last half the day. Then the C up could start into the close Tuesday and carry into Wednesday to end the wave 2 up.

    Then (possibly in the afternoon session) I expect to see a little selling late Wednesday to start the wave 3 down (which should be 60-70 points). You also have the initial claims out on Thursday which should make the traders want to sell late Wednesday in fear of another bad report like last weeks’ job’s report.

    It’s all in the charts and the wave counts of course but they need to blame something on the move down coming so it should be either that or the PPI and Core PPI on Friday. Doesn’t matter the reason the selling is already planned.

    I will be taking a short position should this play out like I expect it to. A 60-70 point down move is well worth the risk in my opinion. I could have went long earlier today but the upside is limited to only around 20 points from the low range this morning so it wasn’t worth the risk to me.

  11. Hmmm… the afterhours high on the SPY at 4:59pm is 156.66! We could have put in the high today or tomorrow at the open? I really don’t see a 3 wave move up since the low on Friday as it looks more like one long wave up… an A wave inside a 2 wave I’m guessing.

    But possibly the choppy sideways move this morning was the B wave down and the move into the close was the C wave up? So we need to be prepared to short tomorrow morning if this thing looks tired and ready to rollover as a wave 3 down should be next, and it’s a 60-70 point move.

    It’s going to be a tough call as we could also start a B wave down tomorrow and back up Wednesday for the C wave up to complete the whole wave 2 up. It’s really a guessing game here but if that 156.66 afterhours high remains the high going into tomorrow then I’m likely going to take a gamble and short tomorrow… especially if we go up higher at the open.

  12. Ok gang, it looks like we are dipping down a little here in the morning which tells me that we’ll likely see the high happen tomorrow morning around the open. We could even break the 1576.09 high by 3-4 points, which would be the ideal situation for us bears to get short at. So I’m waiting until tomorrow to look for that short as today seems to be a day that they will use to kind of reset the short term overbought charts to allow for one more move up tomorrow.

    • Yep… just like they did in 2007 when they teased the bears relentlessly until they final pierced through the 2000 high by 3 points to hit 1555, which if they do the same here then we should expect 1580 for sure… maybe a little bit more?

    • Just doing more studying of the past Dave, and been a little lucky too! If all goes as planned we’ll see a move up tomorrow morning to take out that 1576.09 prior high and stop somewhere between 1580-1590, but I don’t know where in that range? However, I’d hope that it happens early in the start of the morning session.

      • Just curious what do you think of the scenario where no new high and the market just plunge thus bears miss the boat to short? it does seem everywhere I look, everyone is expecting that new high for spx….since dow has already got new high after new high, just a thought

        • Well, I’d rather miss this move down if I’m wrong about tomorrow then have shorted today and get squeezed another 10-20 points up tomorrow. The move down is only expected to be to around the 1500 (maybe as low as 1485?) and could be choppy on the way down… which makes option plays hard to do.

          The crash move down in late May is my main focus and on that move I won’t complain too much if I’m off by a couple of days and don’t catch the top exactly. This one coming tomorrow (or not?) could be a short lived move and my thoughts are that I’ll either catch the top or miss the bus.

          Just don’t get caught up in the emotions of this move down as there are very high odds that the real high for this year will be in late May around 1610-1630 area, which means the high coming tomorrow will be less then that level (or the high was in today?).

  13. Pop and drop coming tomorrow… as these gangsters never make it this easy to get short. If we don’t pop up over the all time high at the open tomorrow then it’s possible they delay it until Thursday and just sell off a few points on Wednesday to lure in some shorts, but I really think they will do it tomorrow as it’s another “eleven” day.

  14. I’m taking a small short here gang. The market could go a little higher but we are close to the top I believe. Remember, this move down could be choppy and not more then 80 to 100 points over the next 3 weeks.

    • If it closes at the high today then we should see one more move up after a brief dip. This looks like some kind of wave 3 from the strength of the move. So possibly a small wave 4 down and a final short wave 5 up? If so then it could go up a little more to maybe 1600 spx I guess? (My thoughts are that today is the top though).

      But this could also be some type of C wave up, which means it ends today or at the open tomorrow. I got short around 1581 as I didn’t know how high it was going to go (still don’t I guess… won’t know till it’s finished. LOL). But I’m happy with the timing of it as I’ll just ride it down to 1500 by the end of the month if things go as planned.

      It’s likely to be choppy though, so your straight puts might not make you as much as you think because of the time decay and choppy ride. But you should still do ok on it. I choose to do a put spread to filter out the time decay on this move, but I’ll be doing straight puts for the May move down (of course) as that one should be much bigger.

      • does the dip at 3 pm look like a 4 and then a 5 into the close? If that is the case, the retails might just see the rug being pulled out from under tomorrow? Besides, EUR did nothing with this equity ramp today..kind of odd, the only one is AUD which has been rising since last night..

        • Don’t know at this point? We might continue up tomorrow to 1600 or even 1610? It’s completely everything I discussed in the post here, as it put in a new high just like it did in 2007. Back then it only went 3 points over the old 2000 high of 1552 and then it dropped 133 points (from that new high at 1555) before resuming the move back up to make the final new high at 1576 spx.

          This time we have gone 13 points higher with our 1589 high today, which I was expecting it to be more then 3 points higher but I’m a little surprised it went up this much. I guess they had too many bears to squeeze this go around, which took it much higher then usual.

          The key here is how the market acts tomorrow. If it opens flat and briefly makes a slightly higher high and rolls back down and slowly drops all day, then we could have seen the high. I don’t want to see it go up hard again or go down fast. The best thing for the bears would be a slow move down that doesn’t panic the bulls to get out or the bears to get in.

          Let them all think it’s just a dip before going higher again so the bears will now join the bulls and get long on that dip. Then rally back up a little to fall short of the high and back down again (slowly) to chop it up confusing both sides.

          Today’s candle pattern (an ‘all up day’) is a solid white bullish candle that puts the odds of a higher high tomorrow of around 90% (from past history of similar candle patterns). That doesn’t mean it’s got to go up huge, as even .01 cents is still a higher high.

          And it doesn’t mean it’s got to hold as it could go up just a few cents and then rollover the rest of the day. However, if it trades sideways all day then that would be the wave 4 down most likely, (which also makes a ‘bull flag’) leaving a 5th wave up to 1600-1610 still possible.

          What we bears want to see is a slow move down in the price level while the overbought charts rollover and start going down. If those charts start going down but the price level chops sideways then there is likely one more move back up yet to come.

          • thanks for the reply. btw, tony has updated his wave count, extremely bullish now…who wouldn’t be after this continuous up move….

    • Interesting… and probably accurate. The question is… what stage are we really in? After this coming May sell off I do see one more rally into spring of 2014, but I think that will end the bull market.

  15. That earnings increase makes me think we’re in stage 3. I hope my shorts don’t get smacked. I did get them 1 cent off of today’s close on the plus side

    • Yeah, that’s the problem with doing straight puts. You need to be very accurate on the entry and the move down needs to happen right afterwards. Sadly I don’t see a quick move down but a choppy one, which will cause time decay on your puts, and it can get worse if they continue up to 1600-1610 for a few more days before dropping.

      But we won’t know until tomorrow I guess? As for what stage we are in? That’s a tough one, but I’d hope stage 5 but I’m think stage 4.

      • Yeah, was a bit concerned with chop, that’s why I bought so far out. Hearing a lot of people with a 16-1650 target=scary. Makes me thing I should sell if there’s any immediate dip in the morning. Do you have a target? I’d assume it was hit since you went short?

  16. Patience is the hardest thing in trading. When you make a trade and see it go against you the next day you have a tendency to panic and sell out. These are the times that you have to go back and re-look at why you made the trade in the first place and ask yourself if you still feel that the position will be profitable in the time frame you planned for.

    Catching the exact top or bottom is nearly impossible for the sheep but catching one within the last 5-10% move is possible. I still believe the top is very near now, if not already here. There is upside resistance in the 1610 SPX zone simply based off the DOW hitting 15,000 (and guessing where the SPX will be at when and if that happens?).

    That 15,000 level is a magnet for the DOW and could be the target. The problem is that they rarely hit an important level like that and reverse. They either (usually) fall short of an important level or pierce through it a little. So which will it be? I don’t know but I’m mentally ready to hold my short position either way.

    As you know I posted previously that it’s only a small position. I’m (of course) wait for the coming May sell off before going “all in”. I knew when taking this small position that it was a gamble as I was expecting a choppy move down into the end of April. The past move down in 2007 was 133 SPX points but I’m only expecting 80-100 points this time around.

    Remember, if they are to trick the most people they need to sell off into the end of this month to lure in more bears that will be chanting the old “Sell in May and go away” saying. When we get closer to the end of this month things will look bearish. It’s around then when they will ripe it back up the first 3 weeks of May and top around the 22nd.

    So the lesson learned here is to have patience and stick to your plan. Assuming you got in short at a good price things can still work out and you can make a profit. I’m just glad I did a put spread this go around as that will make it easier to make that profit should the market take its’ sweet time chopping it’s way down.

    • so far today looks quite like what you describe yesterday, but it is true that being so close to 15000 dow and 1600 spx, I can’t imagine the MM not wanting to tag them for their QE trophies, they are so headline material..but a guy who does harmonics that I follow, had today’s high at 1597 as an important turning point…I guess we will see tomorrow, btw what is the script for tomorrow, Master Leo?

      • Well, today they made a bull flag on most all the ETF’s… which means they “should” pop slightly higher from it in the morning session tomorrow. Failure to do so would be bearish and could allow for us to see the final high today.

        Since the bulls have Bernanke on their side we’d have too assume that they will make the bull flag play out and go higher again tomorrow. But this would be one time that I’m sure you be happy (and so would I) if the meaning of the word “assume” was correct and that call makes an “ass” out of “u” and “me”…. LOL

  17. Today 4-11 is 11years7 months from you know when and 5years6months from the 10-11-2007 top which interestingly enough also occurred on the Thursday of the week. (after the new moon??? I’ll have to check). Definitely 4 star numerology…….

    And today saw the SP and Dow close completely above the upper BB on a followthrough spike ala the 9-14 high(on Fed QE4 news) which was 98 trading days ago. Today probably a final jump on the SP at all time high news.

    But the SP did go up and hit some important resistance today and I’m not just talking about Magic Monkey Paw resistance.

    4-11 also is 44 or 24…..4-12 is a number and date I’ve had my eyes on for a while over the past couple of year…4-12===16 or 48 or 43. Let’s see if we get something interesting.

    We needed a type of candle similar to today to approximate the 8-25-1987 high. And like then the Transports did not confirm the new high. They were actually down today while the Rut put in a nice dragonfly like doji similar to the March 2000 high also not comfirming the new SP high. XLF with the best form of dragonfly doji.

    RTH mystifies me. It had a blowoff 3.49% spike yesterday while none of its components rallied that amount. WMT, TGT were down while SBUX was barely up. I went to Yahoo and it looked like most of the spike occurred at the end of the day in what might have been a fantasy spike since RTH is down 1.5% today in what looks like a total giveup of yesterday’s final minute spike.

      • We are certainly close (if not already there?) to the top Geecko. While I don’t find the turning points too accurate on http://spiraldates.com this coming one on the 16th could be important (and accurate). There is a +/- window on those turning points of 2-3 days, which means that today is within that period (that is 2-3 trading days) as the 16th is only 3 days away.

    • wow interesting numerology stuff, so do you think tomorrow will be something like today? pop and drop?

  18. Actually it is 98 tds from the November low. +43 for the 9-14 high for 141 tds which is pretty good.
    Basically, 4-12 would be 7 months or 210 degrees from that high, but I still like the idea of a 4-11 high.

    Today is also 1031 tds from the 3-6-9 low and 256 tds from the 4-2 high. Since 2010, there have been important highs in this time period….

    2010===April 26 high
    2011====May 1,2 high
    2012====April 2 high

    It’s also approximately 7655 days from the Bradley date or 20years 11months 15 days later. 76(13 or 42 or 13+42 for 55)55…..55 the Gann dzone number among other things.

  19. Gang, I’m going to close out my short here at some point today (soon) as I believe they are going to turn it back up next week and go up to that 1620-1630 area before they finally top. Then the high in late May should be the top of the wave 2 and not as high as this coming next week.

  20. Gang I see a low on the SPY this morning at 158.32 at 8:34 am, which isn’t a FP but instead just a point that the market usually tries to revisit during the trading hours. So it’s possible we could get down there before turning back up. That’s the point I’m going close out my shorts and wait for the rally back up next week before thinking about getting short again.

    • By the way, sometimes the price is misleading on days where there’s no volume. I checked that .14 cent level and it was a bid for 196 shares (that’s $27.44), which made the stock look like it had fallen hard. I think someone is short it and trying to shake out the weak hands and get then to sell at dirt cheap prices. This usually happen right before a stock runs up hard from something positive happening. I will give details over the weekend.

  21. I said I’d wait on your penny stock ideas and I did. What happen with them? We’re you being fed disinformation as I suspect?

    • I’m going to do an update on it this weekend. I’m still in it and don’t have any plans on selling. I’m averaged in at .30 cents. Nothing has changed my mind on the potential of it. I’ll give more details as to what’s going on in the update this weekend, but positive even though the stock price doesn’t reflect in it today.

      • Good thing I didn’t buy…..was thinking that 1526 would have held for a bounce over the short term! Hmmm now…low 1491.40….maybe? Smile!

        • I may be wrong (lots of times) but going to wait for a possible double bottom in gold (1491) before playing a bounce…if I miss it….well there’s lots of fish in the sea…so to speak!
          Have a great weekend all!

      • Yeah… I wish you would have done a spread. Then you wouldn’t have lost that much. I sold out for a small lost today on my put spread as I got out a little too early. I actually could have broken even if I would have waited a little longer. But, I decided to turn and go long into next week as I believe they will go up to that 1620-1630 range before ending this run. (Do note that I’m only doing a small position again as I want to make sure I’m ready for late May).

  22. Along with gold, crude oil is down big. It has put in a TD mega-bearflip on the daily dropping down to its lower BB which is flaring wider. Also looks to be some sort of wave 3 after putting in a 1-2 off the recent highs.

    How the Dow is holding up so far is amazing. But declines off the top usually start off slow. It was nice to see the Dow bounce back downward after getting back to unchanged. Breadth is still quite negative. Should drop a certain little indicator back below the 0 line but we still have a few hours left.

  23. Red, every crash has a catalyst, no QE, Obama winning= ie capital gains/taxes, banks in 08. So, just my thoughts, if some catalyst soon reveals itself, That would be the time in my opinion. Maybe Bernanke will be saying something or something comes to an end

  24. Looks like last week was 30 weeks from the 9-14 high. I thought we still had a couple of more weeks to go so it does look like this past week should be a high. A sometime dominant cycle should have come into play. They disquised the last incarnation of it pretty well. Also a Fib 21 weeks off the November low.

  25. Gold was down 5%+ on Friday. I know the margin calls were going out fast and furious on Friday. Gold dropped below its weekly lower BB so there is a possibility of a gold crash on Monday something that no one is looking for. Friday’s 5% action just being the prelude. And that triggering pronounced downdrafts in other markets.?

    Monday is 4-15 (Fahrenheit 451????)(It is a a PI 314 days from Ray Bradbury’s passing on the day of Quetzacoatls return, 6-4 last year—-130 days from the ceremony dedicated to Ray Bradbury in LA when a certain instersection was renamed Ray Bradbury square ie 12-6-12…)

    4-15 is also the Mayan # 2013 calendar days from the 10-11-2007 high, 1501 days from the 3-6-9 low, 1330 weeks from the lesser grand ritual episode 25 years ago, 1033 trading days from 3-6-9 and 1385 tds from 10-11-2007. All very intriguing numbers.

    Then we have “42” being released yesterday in honor of the upcoming Jackie Robinson day on 4-15.

    Two Lincoln movies have been released in the last year including one directed by mega billionaire Hollywood establishment director Steven Spielberg. Daniel Day Lewis won the Oscar this year for best actor for portraying the US’s 16 th president. Lincoln was assassinated on 4-15—–1865.

    30477 days from the other lesser grand ritual….3477===777

  26. Gold was down 4%+ on Friday 9-23-2011 and then tumbled another 100+ dollars intraday on Monday the 26th before recovering to only close down $35.

      • Let’s keep an eye on that stock and all the gold stocks Amy as after the banksters loose control on manipulating the metal prices down we should see all these stocks go higher with gold and silver. But in between now and then it could be a rough ride for a lot of junior gold stocks.

  27. As we all know that the crooked banksters JP Morgan are heavily manipulating silver all the time as they have huge short positions and can’t let it rise up to much or they will get hit with margin calls that they can’t fill. So what they do is borrow shares that don’t exist and sell them into the market place to drive down the price hard every time silver starts to rally.

    Last week we practically seen a mini-crash in gold and silver, cause them to both drop like a rock. Silver is unlike gold as it’s actually used up in consumer electronics and stuff, whereas gold is held onto in jewelry and the likes. Therefore silver is actually much more scare then gold is while the demand is much larger then the available ounces mined.

    So if you were a gangster crooked bank like JP Morgan and something bad happened overnight that would diminish the supply of silver by 16% in one quick instance what would you do? Obviously once the world knew what happened to cause such a huge loss of silver production the price of it would soar through the roof… meaning that you had better do something to prevent this huge run up in price or get hit with margin calls.

    Well this is what happened overnight…. http://silverdoctors.com/10-of-us-annual-silver-supply-just-vaporized

    And the mini-crash in gold and silver is what the banksters at JP Morgan did last Friday as they knew about this landslide prior to the rest of us sheep and keep it quiet in the media for fear of a gap up in silver prices. This is clearly fraud in every manner but do you think they will arrest Jamie Dimon for manipulating silver down hard on Friday so Monday’s rally will just likely recover some of distance it fell instead of breaking out into a huge rally that would cause these assholes to get hit with margin calls?

    Hell no, the government won’t do anything to Dimon as they are in on it too! If it were up to me I’d string him up a tall tree with a rope around his neck and ask for volunteers to smack the horse he’d be sitting on… which I’m sure I’d find plenty of volunteers.

  28. Lesson to learn here… trading is harder then it looks. When I took a short position last week when the spx was at 1581 I had the patience to ride it out all the way up to 1597, but then when we sold off on Friday I closed out my short for a small loss thinking that was all the downside we were going to get. I even turned and bought a small long position.

    Today we see another move down, which would have doubled my short position should I have held it. Then I could have went long this morning as I still feel we are going back up to 1610-1630 area. So while my long position is down right now I must not sell out when it goes back up to breakeven as it to has the potential to double my money (triple if we hit 1610), which would make up for the small loss I took Friday.

    These spreads I do have the potential for really nice returns if one can ride out the 50% loss one day and 200% gain the next day, as those types of wild swings are mentally tough to watch and can shake out the best trader.

  29. If I had to guess I’d say we have started the 100 point or so drop as I posted on the chart. Since I’m still expecting one more rally back up to the 1610-1630 area it’s now looking like it will happen in late May as originally planned.

    So for now the 1597 spx top is likely it for awhile. The bottom here is probably around 1500 spx after some type of bounce tomorrow or Wednesday. It’s likely a wave 4 up with today being the wave 3 down. Then the wave 5 down should end around 1500 next week.

    So while I got short to early last week (1581 area) and exited too quickly it’s looking like the forecast was pretty accurate. It’s just that I didn’t trade it accurately. Even topped on the 11th (an “eleven” day) just like I thought it would. Sucks that I failed to trade it successfully.

    • Thanks San your posts……
      Been watching and waiting for a nice bounce in Gold…but it keeps dropping…crap-smile!
      No pos just yet…..

  30. Looking at the charts I see this as a B wave down with this mornings rally to be the A wave up. This will likely be the last chance for the bears to exit all shorts before a C wave up takes place tomorrow. I do NOT see this as the start of a 5th wave down with this mornings move up being the 4th wave up and yesterday being the wave 3 down.

    I think the selling is over for this week. This is option expiration week and they are bullish some 80% of the time. Considering that the market makers squeezed out all the “call holders” yesterday so they wouldn’t have too pay them I’d guess they will squeeze out all the recent “put holders” the rest of the week. Remember, these market makers are professional thieves and make a living stealing from the sheep… so expect this rally to go higher then you might believe.

    • Thanks Mr. Red……..I’m not a wavier so to speak but I do have a question: Your above 1st para…..we are NOW in a wave A up (today) Wave B down (maybe tomorrow) then wave C up after that? If so, going to watch 1540ish as the wave B low…or am I just f….ed up today and I need a drink…smile!

      • I think we may have seen the B wave down already and the start of the C wave up into the close today. If we gap up tomorrow you’ll know the C wave up has started…

  31. Well, I thought we would just have a B wave down and then go back up for a C wave but clearly this is a 5th wave down now as it went lower then Monday’s low. I can see 5 waves now so after today I’d say we’ll be going back up for awhile.

    Predicting these moves has been extremely hard this time because the candle pattern closes are working like they should. If you go back and look at previous solid red candles where they closed it at the low for the day you’ll find that in 95% of the cases there was a lower low the next day. That’s not happening now as “they” are manipulating this market to extreme levels.

    Who would have thought that we would gap up Tuesday morning after closing at the low on Monday? Every other time you would see a lower open after such a big down day just before it, which would put in some type of bottoming tail… but not this time. The gangsters gap it up!

    Then today we gap down after closing up yesterday at the highs with a solid white candle. Again, 95%+ of the time this doesn’t happen. It’s a clear sign that “they” are desperate right now and are manipulating the market both ways to screw the bulls and bears both.

    So now we have 5 waves in total which should make up one larger wave. But since this market is experiencing such extreme manipulation I’m cautious to call this a completed pattern. In fact the move up from this could just end up being some smaller wave inside a wave 3 or wave 5 down. I’m not sure how this is going to play out but I don’t think the bears are done until we hit 1500 spx or so. But it’s looking to be a wild and trick ride down.

  32. Day of infamy tomorrow……..Looks like we had the kickoff to Day of Infamy week on Monday and some followthrough today.

  33. I’ll see if I can do a video update tomorrow gang, but what I’m expecting for Monday-Wednesday is a move up to the 1580 spx area before rolling over. The we will either go down hard for a final 5th wave (or C, depends on how you count them?) that will end in the 1490-1500 spx zone.

    The other scenario is that we finished the move down from 1597 to 1536 and that entire move was some kind of larger “intermediate wave 4” with one final move up left to go. If so, then we are now in the first smaller wave 1 up inside this final “intermediate wave 5” up that should conclude in the 1630 spx zone (+/- 20 points).

    That would be in the May 22nd to May 29th time frame, as both dates are ritual “eleven” dates packed right in front of and behind the Legatus meeting set for May 23rd-25th. This is the ideal topping area for this final 5th wave up.

    So it’s really about putting the time frame together with only a month to go. Can the market sell off to the 1490-1500 spx zone to complete an “intermediate wave 4” down and still have time left to rally up to the 1630 by late May… or will they need the next 23-28 trading days to complete the “intermediate wave 5” up?

    I still feel that one can take a short around 1580 spx this week but when it rolls back down the key question will be whether or not it’s some kind of final 5th wave (or C wave) down that completes “intermediate wave 4” with the top at 1597 and the bottom in the 1490-1500 zone… and then start the “intermediate wave 5” up.

    Or, and this is the big “OR” and what my guts tells me… we have already started the “intermediate wave 5” up with the first smaller wave 1 having already started at the 1536 low and I believe it will end in the 1580 zone. Then down for a tricky smaller wave 2 that will come close to the 1536 low again but stay above it to make it a valid wave 2 down.

    Then a smaller wave 3 up to re-hit the 1597 high (and make a double top that will get ever bear short at) followed by a smaller wave 4 down that should scare the bulls and make the bears pile on heavily short. Then the last move up will be a nasty smaller wave 5 up to hit the 1630 zone which will also complete the larger “intermediate wave 5” up too.

    This can be very tricky as they want fool the most people on both sides. Therefore if we do hit the 1580 zone next week and one decides to short it, one should also be prepared to bailout quickly just above the 1536 area as a safety measure in case my gut is right and it’s only a tricky smaller wave 2 down. Caution is the name of the game here as it’s going to be a wild ride between now and the final high I believe.

  34. Lunar eclipse. Historically markets down 1.5% within 1 day of eclipse.
    Works 75- 80% of the time. Eclipse on 25th april. I know most of you do
    not believe in Astrology, but I thought some one may see it a use full.
    Only use, if all other indicators are pointing in a short opportunity.
    All the best every one.

    • Could be Dave but you and I both know how they love to fool us sheep. While astrology is important it’s not something I can count on to work just by itself. Combined with other methods though and it can be accurate, but many methods must be used to paint the whole picture I think and none of them by themselves have a really high accuracy rating.

  35. Well, there was your chance to get short for one minute for the move down… LOL! Sadly, I think they will take it up higher again tomorrow. The 1580 spx area was basically hit (1579.58) but the move down (if it was accurate?) was way too quick to play. It looks like the gangsters just wanted to take out the “buy stops” to steal the bulls’ money, which means we could be going on up to the prior high of 1597 before dropping again.

    So my wave count could be off and this might be an A wave up from the 1536 low, which should end just shy of the 1597 high… followed by a B wave down to end just slightly above the 1536 low. Then a final C wave up to end in the 1630-1650 zone. This is a very tricky time period right now, which also tells me that the gangsters are pulling out all the stops to trick the public before they crash the market later next month.

  36. The market looks tired guys. I ‘m thinking that they will push it up one more time around the close today but that’s likely about all it will be… meaning a short into tomorrow seems like a good play to me. Possibly we’ll see 1583- 585 spx or so by the close, as that would make a good 5th wave up to complete the entire 5 wave pattern from the 1536 low.

    But I’m really not sure on how low they will go on the move down? I still don’t think they are going to the 1490-1500 zone like a lot of others do, as just above 1536 seems most likely. So while I’d like to see 1540-1550 get hit we might stop around 1563 where the gap fill is located at.

    Tough call here as to what the wave count is right now? Was the move down from 1597 to 1536 an A wave down, and now we are in a B wave up? That implies that the C wave down that could go to that 1490-1500 zone.

    Or was the move down from 1597 to 1536 just a simple 5 wave pattern and now we are starting a 5 wave pattern up that should complete May 22nd… which means this smaller 5 wave pattern move up that’s about to complete here by the end of the day is a wave 1 up. Then we have a wave 2 down to maybe 1540-1550, then a wave 3 up to 1597 area, back down 30-50 points for wave down and finally a wave 5 up to 1630-1650 by May 22nd.

  37. We hit the 1583 level that I was looking for gang, so I think a small short into Thursday and Friday is safe. But we might only go down to gap fill around 1563 spx before turning back up next Monday.

  38. Well gang, no hope for the bears. Just hang in there as shorting yesterday for only a 20 point down was too risky anyway. I did think they would drop back a little, and I was looking to get long for the final move up to the 1630-1650 spx zone, but it never happened. So I wait…

  39. Just from prior history a double top is something to be shorted. The question will be how far will they allow it to drop? One thing is certain though… we are going up too fast for this thing to stretch out until my May 22nd target date for the final high (in the 1630-1650 zone). This leads me to believe we are going to top in early May and drop down for the first wave 1 down and then back up for the wave 2 into either the preferred date of May 22nd or the alternate date of May 29th.

    Personally I won’t be shorting this double top as I just have a funny feeling that they won’t drop it more then 20 points or so… meaning it’s not worth my time to short it and take on that much risk. In fact, I think they will chop around in a zone just below the 1597 high for a week or two to frustrate both bulls and bears.

    Then when the time is right they will pierce through and hit the 1630 zone to squeeze out every last bear that will have been acquiring short position in the 2 weeks choppy zone… and to get every bull on board long. That’s what I’d do if I were a gangsters.

    Looking at dates I see the 11th as a “daily” ritual eleven but it seems too far out, so I’m not sure on that date? I’d be leaning more toward the week of May 6th to 10th, with the early part of that week being the most likely period. This is based on prior history of similar topping zones and how long they lasted.

    If so, then we could drop into my May 22nd date for a wave 1 down, with a wave 2 up possibly completing on the next ritual “eleven” day of May 29th. That’s 3 trading days after the Legatus meeting which is May 23rd-25th. If that is a top for this wave 2 up then wave 3 down will be the one that starts around the 29th… which was always my gut feeling anyway.

    I never thought we’d have a wave 1 down after Legatus but I couldn’t put the pieces together to get the wave counts right. Now I think a better picture is emerging… which has us topping early in May and then topping again right after Legatus. I’ll have to do a new post on this after I study more… maybe this weekend?

  40. I’m looking for a bottom today guys… and probably within the next couple of hours. While the short term charts are bearish and the market looks ready to rollover it just “feels” like they won’t let it. I think would could get a few more points lower (maybe to 1577 spx?) and that will probably be it for the day.

    Outlook for next week is “sunny and cloudy” weather with chop all week long likely. Next week I don’t expect any more moves lower then what we are seeing today. Crazy huh? But these gangsters are likely going to turn this pig back up as by early next week all the short term charts will reset back to bullish mode.

  41. Guys, I didn’t have time to do a new post… sorry about that. Nothing much has changed really, except for a few minor things.

    First, instead of a new high (with the 1630 zone being the target area) being put in on the preferred date May 22nd (or the alternate date May 29th) I think we are going to put in that high next week after choppy around all this week to get some bulls long and bears short with stops just above 1600 zone.

    Some how I’ve always thought that the sell off after Legatus would be a wave 3 down and now I see that as possible. Assuming we top early next week then we’ll have 2-3 weeks left to put in the wave 1 down and the choppy wave 2 up… which I say “choppy” as I don’t think it’s going to be a huge re-tracer wave like they have been in the past. This means it won’t need much time either… maybe a week?

    This first wave 1 down shouldn’t scare anyone as it is designed to keep the bears sleeping and the bulls thinking it’s just another pullback to get long on. From looking at the past sell offs they tend to move in 80-100 point ranges, so I’m expecting about the same on this first wave.

    Since I’m expecting a new high early next week that “high” will make the “head” in a “Head and Shoulders” pattern with the prior high of 1597 spx then being the “left shoulder”. That leaves the rally up for the wave 2 to make the top of the “right shoulder”. In this case I think it will end around Legatus but it won’t go up as much as people expect.

    The reasoning behind this is the fact that everyone will see the H&S pattern and will be expecting a high close to the 1597 left shoulder. The best way to trick the bulls that are long and the bears waiting around 1597 is to fail to even get close to that level again. The bears will be forced to chase it down as wave 3 starts and the bulls won’t believe their eyes when it starts down hard again.

    So if we assume that the bottom of the first wave is around the most recent low of 1536 then the bounce back up for wave 2 (and the right shoulder) should stop at a lower Fibonacci level like the 38.2% or the 50%, but not the typical past retracements that are almost 100%.

    In order for wave 3’s to start and have any real scare effect they are usually preceded by a weak wave 2 that lures in dip buying bulls and catches the bears asleep. This is why I’m not expecting too much on the wave 2 up. But for now lets focus on catching the top of this move so we can be short on the wave 1 down.

  42. Today is 110 trading days from the November 16 lows matching the final 110 day rally into March 27,2000 before the Nasdaq proceeded to meltdown. 12 tds from the nominal SP high on 4-11 similar to the 10 trading day double top in March 2000 which only saw the $ndx make a new high on March 27…..So far no real new high anywhere except possibly the $nyse. 1043 tds from the 3-6-9 low.

    • Heard Bradley’s ode to the ’29 ’92 ritual today around 4:05pm local time for the first time in quite awhile on the 21(777) year anniversary of the ’29’92 ritual although the Bradley date was last Friday. As we march into the High Season for the Mayan-inspired Season of Infamy. With the kickoff on 4-15 (Lincoln, 42)……After all the Mayan pyramids were 4 sided with 19 terraces on each side.

  43. Red, I write and anti-nuclear blog that has been syndicated by “Before Its News” and this guys reply is below. the nuke blog is here, re Fukushima, worth a read too.

    http://nukeprofessional.blogspot.com/2013/04/report-from-steadily-increasing.html

    Mr. Nuke Pro,

    Thank you for an accurate look at radiation background levels where you live in the u.s. of TERROR!

    Don’t you find it ‘odd’ that NONE OF THIS INFORMATION ON RADIATION IS
    BEING REPORTED BY THE FASCIST-OWNED u.s. of TERROR WAR-MONGERING
    ‘NETWORKS’?

    Anyway, your reporting is important, especially here on BIN, where
    ‘facts can be fleeting’ in just about every bit of so-called
    ‘journalism’ that is posted.

    You will find my post amusing, maybe thought provoking, cause when GMO
    Foods + chem.- trails + armed-militarized police-state + poison
    contamination from all western food packaging (PETE, PS, – contain
    phthalate & BPA) + pharmaceutical prescription usage-dosage abuse
    with approved by Dr.’s + preservatives, sodium additives,
    pharmacy-vaccine in-meat reside, GMO contaminated animal feed (soy,
    corn), IN ALL MEATS offered for sale PLUS BACKGROUND RADIATION LEVELS
    RISING (THAT QUICKLY, WOW), ARE ALL ADDED UP TOGETHER, I mean, my
    ‘explanation scenario’ actually seems plausible. Please excuse me if I
    approach the average BIN reader a little roughly (name-calling and
    stuff). They seem to focus a little better on what they are reading when
    that ‘kind of attention-getting stuff’ is inserted in the ‘factual’
    sentence.

    Please keep on posting updates, Mr. Nuke Pro!

    Massive, Uncontained Leak At Fukushima is pouring over 710 billion
    Becquerel’s of radioactive materials into atmosphere (removed quickly
    off of BIN).

    Your “planet” is being ‘Terra-formed’ for another species that
    desires MUCH HIGHER BACK- GROUND RADIATION. ‘It’ also is adjusting the
    composition of the atmosphere as well as the overall planet temperature.

    You “maggots” are a nuisance, and after enough of your ‘now human’
    DNA has been ‘cataloged’ for the creation of a new hybrid species, you
    ‘bacteria’ on the surface of the planet will be ‘culled’, considerably
    in numbers.

    What’s this crap about all humans-gone in 350 years. Correction:
    Radiation CAUSES GENETIC MUTATION IN ALL LIVING THINGS, INCLUDING
    BACTERIA AND VIRUSES! You morons, your ‘decedents’ will not look like,
    nor act like humans at all! ‘Natural Selection’ will accelerate, and the
    genetic ‘freak’ that can survive and reproduce in the ‘new environment’
    will dominate in numbers!

    I mean, good old jesus is NOT EVEN GOING TO RECOGNIZE YOUR MUTATED,
    FREAK ‘DECEDENTS’ AS BEING HUMAN, if ‘it’ returns to this hell-hole of a
    planet, in 350 years hence!

    Now, one last thing about ‘radiation’.

    YOU MORONS KNOW NOTHING ABOUT IT!

    IT IS ‘NOT OF THIS WORLD’!

    FOR SURE! And how am I sure?

    THE GRAVITY WELL OF A BLACK HOLE CAPTURES ALL MATTER, NOTHING CAN ESCAPE
    ITS ‘GRASP’………………………………………EXCEPT RADIATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Read it and weep, pathetic humans.

    Your time is up.

    You are being ‘exterminated’, right in front of your very eyes.

    And, it is BEING DONE ON PURPOSE!

    AND, YOUR OWN human KIND IS CO-OPERATING WITH THESE ‘THINGS’ THAT ARE
    EXTERMINATING YOUR KIND RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE OF THIS PLANET.

  44. A new high was put in briefly this morning of 1597.55 spx, whereas the prior high was 1597.09 spx. To all outside appearances this looks like the final top and many bears are going short right now. I on the other hand think they are just teasing the bears right now and that this selling will end soon and will be reversed into early next week.

    I’m still looking for that final high in the 1630 spx zone, and I’m looking for it to happen between next Monday the 6th and Wednesday the 8th. Today looks like some kind of ABC move down that once it ends will allow for a final wave up to happen. Maybe this ABC is a wave 4 down with a 5th wave up to go? Don’t know for sure but I’m not risking shorting this market yet.

  45. Today is the 237 year anniversary of the founding of the enlightened ones. This is definitely a number they will ritualize and “commemorate”………REDRUM!!!!!!!!

    Definitely the high season for the SEASON OF INFAMY……………..

    • Next Monday or Tuesday is the likely high Geccko in my opinion. Tomorrow and Friday I suspect we will retrace today’s down move and erase it. They want 1600 spx or more and they won’t give up until they get it.

  46. The 30min, 60min, 2hr, and 4hr charts are all looking bullish right now. They are all curling up on their MACD’s and are also rising up from oversold on their Histogram bars. Assuming that they allow the charts to work (and they usually do work for the bulls, just not the bears) then I’m expecting a rally later today and into tomorrow.

    • Looks like it’s been in a steady down move. If it resets the prior lows at .25 cents it could be something worth getting a few shares in with the idea that someone will eventually do another promotion on it.

      I haven’t went out on LWSP yet but it looks similar to your ASCC. I think it could go lower still but will eventually be promoted again. It’s on my watch list for now.

  47. If today’s rally is some kind of wave 3 up (and I believe it is) then it looks like we are currently in a sideways/down wave 4 right now. This leave Monday to complete the final wave 5 up, and complete this rally for the year and put in the high for this year as well.

    Then I’m expecting a 2-3 week drop of about 80-100 points (based on prior sell offs) that should retest the 1536 spx low. This should be the first wave 1 down from the high. Then I expect a rally back up to maybe 1600 area for the wave 3 up. That should happen and complete on a ritual “eleven” date like May 22nd or the 29th.

    The Legatus meeting is from May 23rd to the 25th so everything is lining up for a nasty wave 3 down to start somewhere around that time period. Of course past history only shows about 30-40% of the important tops occur on eleven days so it’s not a sure thing for the 22nd or the 29th.

    But knowing a zone period should allow everyone to get into a nice short position even if I’m off on one of those dates and it happens on the 27th or some other day in between that zone. As for the wave 3 down I’m expecting about double the wave 1 down in points… or about 160 points roughly.

    Have a good weekend everyone and get ready to short on Monday. Also, I will be doing a new post this weekend and an update for the newsletter (good things to report there too).

    • Thanks Mr. Red……have a great weekend one and all! Finally some nice weather here!
      Very interesting day!

      • You are welcome Seawind… and do have a nice weekend. It’s currently rainy here in Jacksonville but at least it’s not cold on top of that. Get ready for next week as there is money to be made.

  48. Happy Double 5 Day!!!!

    Friday was 115 trading days from the 11-16 low. The 115 number has been recurring during the past year. Off the 4-12 high last year, there was a 43 td decline followed by a 72 td rally…..43+72===115…..The rally into the 9-14 high was followed by another 43 td decline so off the 4-2 high, there was 115 td high-high and off the 6-04 low there was a 115 td low to low.

    72 is also a fib .62 of 115….. So a lot of evidence that Friday could be the high…..It was also 33 weeks from the 9-14 high and rallies during this bull phase have occurred in 33 and 11 weekly increments.

    This two day pop is similar to the final two day pop into 9-14 with that day seeing an exhaustive gap up with 700+new highs. Friday saw a large gap up with 800+ new highs. And then a slide during the rest of the session. On the 5 minute chart that slide exceeded anything seen during this last 5 wave up off the low on 5-1 so I am no so sure we will be seeing a final mini 5th wave type doji bar.

    More divergences seen on $bpnya and %off stocks above the $nya’s 50 day average. (Lower highs to new $nya highs).

    Industrial commodities were making new multi-month lows during the week indication global recession although they bounced 5% on Friday. Meanwhile, industrial commodity exporter Australia was seeing new highs in its stock indices even with its manufacturing PMI back down at deep recession levels (May 2009 levels). All showing a market totally out of whack.

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