For all I know, his reasoning might always be suspect. He doesn't usually explain his thoughts. Does pretty well though, and that's what counts for me.
To me, Carl's reasoning for the day seems somewhat suspect because the volume hasn't really changed in the recent past. And where the heck is he getting his numbers from? Not to say he's not correct but his reasoning is definitely suspect.
During the past month the e-minis have rallied 80 points. Yet the market has been very quiet during this rally. Volume has been moderate and pit session volatility has been low.
I find this remarkable market behavior. Today, for instance, the ES is trading at new bull market highs. Volume has been very moderate and the market has traded in a five point range over the past two and a half hours. One thing I have learned over the years is that short term tops of any importance generally occur when trading activity is relatively high and intraday volatility is relatively high. Advances generally end with a bang, not a whimper.
So I have to conclude that the 20-30 point reaction I have been looking for is not here yet. Instead I think the ES will reach 1175 before any significant break of more than 10 points develops.
I am revising today's range estimate to 1157-1170.
For all I know, his reasoning might always be suspect. He doesn't usually explain his thoughts. Does pretty well though, and that's what counts for me.
I am far more concerned about it, but the $7.02 low is still holding.
My worry/relax line is now $7.04 and TZA is at $7.05.
So for these precious few seconds, and am relaxed 🙂
A 10 cent drop in 3 seconds doesn't seem out of the question. It's a war of nerves.
To me, Carl's reasoning for the day seems somewhat suspect because the volume hasn't really changed in the recent past. And where the heck is he getting his numbers from? Not to say he's not correct but his reasoning is definitely suspect.
Is this changing your outlook on TZA?
Thank you.
Full Text:
During the past month the e-minis have rallied 80 points. Yet the market has been very quiet during this rally. Volume has been moderate and pit session volatility has been low.
I find this remarkable market behavior. Today, for instance, the ES is trading at new bull market highs. Volume has been very moderate and the market has traded in a five point range over the past two and a half hours. One thing I have learned over the years is that short term tops of any importance generally occur when trading activity is relatively high and intraday volatility is relatively high. Advances generally end with a bang, not a whimper.
So I have to conclude that the 20-30 point reaction I have been looking for is not here yet. Instead I think the ES will reach 1175 before any significant break of more than 10 points develops.
I am revising today's range estimate to 1157-1170.
Don't doubt he is right. Let's see where the VIX is when we get to 1170.
Carl just revised today's range estimate to 1157-1170.
Did he say why since his projection was lower?
Carl just went long.