Manipulation By The Government…

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The light volume continues to allow the market to float higher as NO Big Institutions are doing any large selling.  Why?  Simple... they all owe a favor to Uncle Sam.  Put simply, I believe that Obama, Bernanke, and Geithner are sending a message to the big boys... which is "Don't Sell" until I tell you too.

Remember, the government and Goldman Sachs have a revolving door now.  And since Goldman and all the other big banks and institutions stole the tax payers' money, and used it to buy up their own stock... instead of getting it back out to the economy in the form of loans, they now have too listen to what Obama and the gang wants.

What do they want?  Probably to pass that worthless piece of crap health care(less) bill (The actual bill).  I don't know for sure of course, but Obama has been pushing it down our throats for quite some time now.  It's his baby, and he's not stopping until he screws every middle classed American.

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I thought Bush was bad, but Obama is worst.  It's not just the health care bill, it's everything... from this manipulation of the stock market to the outright lies on economic reports, and of the Billion's of tax payer dollars that was given to the crooked banks.  Sheesh... Bushs' biggest lie was the ol' "They got Weapons of Mass Destruction" speak.  He was too dumb to speak about the economy.

health-care-bill-van-side-2

Obama is the slickest crook since Nixon (well, I guess he wasn't that slick after all).  Of course Obama is really just a front man for the real people that run the country, behind the scenes.  I think most all elections are already planned out who is going to win, and become the next president... just like the cities are already picked out for the future Olympic games.

Regardless of who is running the country, the manipulation in today's market is absurd.  So trying to forecast this market is just as absurd.  I'll repeat it again... just to hear myself say it!  "This market is EXTREMELY Overbought and should sell off some very soon (like last week)".  Will it?  Of course not.  However, it should (might... maybe... LOL)  sell off after option expiration is over this Friday.  But a BIG Sell Off might not happen?  We'll just have to wait and see...

Red

139 COMMENTS

  1. Tue 3/16. There was a significant surge in moneyflow across the board. It is possible for a sector to experience such surge in money flow while the rest of the market segments collapse around it, bringing it down, despite the surge in money flow. What is difference this time is, the surge is across the board. It would be an exceptional event, a true outlier, for the market to collapse. If anything, it actually lends weight to the possibility of a meltUP. A snapback collapse may follow that. Giiven the new high in the AD line, it virtually ensures that any down turn will not exceed 10%.

  2. Today 3.17.2010 is an important day as a number of sequences align.

    3.17.2010 is 888 days from the 10/11/2007 $SPX all time high
    111 = 1.30.2008 high
    222 = 5.19.2008 major high
    333 = 9.8.2008 major high
    444 = 12.29.2008 low
    555 = 4.17.2009 high
    666 = 8.7.2009 high
    777 = 11.26.2009 dubai ritual (ES dumped 40 handles overnight)

    another sequence aligns from the 3.6.2009 low
    3.17.2010 = 1 year 11 days

    important sequence from the 3.24.2000 $SPX high
    9 years 11 months 21 days

  3. My thoughts- all the technical conditions within the next two days should make the market ripe fro a major sell off (except for the dollar needs to rally but maybe a small sell off would actually spark that). The government says the healthcare plan resolution will be announced within 72 hours. I believe they will hold the market up until then and maybe for a day after (so it doesn't look like the market sold off because of a passed plan). Maybe the day after the plan passes (over the weekend), the government will stage a major catastrophe (perhaps in the middle east) so that a market sell off can then be attributed to something besides the health care plan. I know it sounds like a conspiracy theory, but I am beginning to believe in them 🙂

  4. Carl's morning call:

    June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1147 – 1161. The ES should reach the 1200 level by the end of May.

    1145.50-1155.75 range yesterday
    1159.50 high overnight
    1147-1161 range estimate today (June contract) 14 points
    1157.50 currently, so -10.50 to + 3.50 from here (Bearish)

    • Take a look at Serge's post today. Anna also seems to be expecting a drop. But Anna says she would cover all shorts. I don't know why though.

      • Looks like Serge was bearish for today.

        Anna was probably just reacting to feeling poorly and needing to be away from the market.

        I've been watching TZA today, and the weak bounce off the lows is not encouraging.

          • $7.02 low is holding.

            I have S2 at $7.03. S2 or thereabouts is a reasonable place for a bottom.

            I'm still ok holding.

          • Full Text:

            During the past month the e-minis have rallied 80 points. Yet the market has been very quiet during this rally. Volume has been moderate and pit session volatility has been low.

            I find this remarkable market behavior. Today, for instance, the ES is trading at new bull market highs. Volume has been very moderate and the market has traded in a five point range over the past two and a half hours. One thing I have learned over the years is that short term tops of any importance generally occur when trading activity is relatively high and intraday volatility is relatively high. Advances generally end with a bang, not a whimper.

            So I have to conclude that the 20-30 point reaction I have been looking for is not here yet. Instead I think the ES will reach 1175 before any significant break of more than 10 points develops.

            I am revising today's range estimate to 1157-1170.

          • To me, Carl's reasoning for the day seems somewhat suspect because the volume hasn't really changed in the recent past. And where the heck is he getting his numbers from? Not to say he's not correct but his reasoning is definitely suspect.

          • For all I know, his reasoning might always be suspect. He doesn't usually explain his thoughts. Does pretty well though, and that's what counts for me.

          • I am far more concerned about it, but the $7.02 low is still holding.

            My worry/relax line is now $7.04 and TZA is at $7.05.

            So for these precious few seconds, and am relaxed 🙂

            A 10 cent drop in 3 seconds doesn't seem out of the question. It's a war of nerves.

      • the UUP setup is separate setup from the equity markets, if the uup gets above it's knot of containment points any upward movement in the equity markets would then be corrective

        the only other setup I have is the 16.26 de-leverage point on the $VIX

  5. Goodness – we need that healthcare plan passed during market hours today so that VIX can spike down just for a millisecond! I have a feeling there will be no such luck.

    • This is unbelievable. IYR has an RSI of >80. $RUT has an RSI of >77. $RUT:$RVX still not giving a BB sell signal. I'm just dying to short something.

        • Shorting a liquidity driven market = standing in front of a runaway freight train with a gold vault on it.

          Logic says good idea to intercept that train of gold. But you'll be dead.

          • While that statement is technically correct, the application of it is based on too many assumptions.

            I think people are over estimating the degree of control and intervention. I think crowd or mob psychology has a better explaination for market action. It is more likely that the effect of any intervention is a function of harnessing the mob psychology.

            WallStreet runs on one axiom : Let the devil get the hind most.

          • Not direct retails. Things have changed. Nowadays, retails are in the market involuntarily, via their retirement plans. So they are not in via their own brokerage accts. But they are all in via institutionally managed retirement plans. The American people are being screwed b/c most of them have no clue what is going on with their retirement plans. They know they have one, but no clue what is being done with their money in those.

          • That is very true but I don't think that many new people are pouring money into their 401K plans with the state of unemployment.

      • Dread, I'm just dying from shorting everything! Even if you guys decide not to go short, I would not go long, even if we run much higher. EVERYTHING is saying this market is overbought.

        • I still have about 33% of my 401k long, so I am benefiting from this insane ramp up. My trading account is all cash, except for a (worthless) $50 position in SRS calls.

          This market was overbought at 1150. Now it is really overbought.

          • Dread, DRV down 3.00 in last 10 days. What is the attraction to it. Would you do it via stock or options?

          • DRV is the 3x bear real estate. $DJUSRE is outside of the upper BB right now. It closed yesterday outside of the upper as well. Volume in DRV was highest ever, yesterday. Looks like it is putting in a doji today, which is not what I had hoped for. I'm not messing with options for the time being.

          • I might. It's hard to say. DRV was up about 3% since the earlier 52-week low. I think there will be at least one more chance to get in by the close today or maybe tomorrow am. Like with TZA, it tends to take a few sessions to top out. The only thing that has me worried is opex.

          • Why would they sell the market off before the healthcare plan is passed? I would think they would hold it up until the plan was passed, no?

          • Sell the news. I think they wait for it to pass. It could be weeks before they finally find a way to pass it.

            Or months. They don't seem to be able to pass it or quit trying.

          • Baloney. The decision is: try to pass it.

            72 hours or 72 days makes no difference.

            They are idiots.

          • Yes, perhaps. But why would they come out and say a decision would be made if they couldn't be sure it would? That would just make them look bad?

          • Obama wanted it all finished before the August recess. There have been lots of deadlines. Just creates a sense of urgency. After the deadline passes, there will be a new deadline.

          • I think you'll get another shot tomorrow. The MACD on $RUT is closer to “closing the loop” than $DJUSRE is. But there is still room for an insane price surge. Look for a long tailed doji tomorrow. If we don't get that, then I have no idea what is going on 🙂

  6. Happy days for the bears are coming. We have several indicators lining up for a short but sharp correction.

    Not giving the bears false hope here. The AD line basically immunizes against any thing major. 112011-1130 most likely. 1100 at best.

    To the perma bears here, it is my sincere hope that you take the opportunity to make a full regroup and reassess your overall strategy. If you haven't read Van Tharp's books, please do so. There are certain trading principles that you cannot hope to suceed if you violate those. There is no glory, honor or profit in being stubborn and blowing up an account. You are not blazing new trail there neither. Being there done that. I am not being holier than thou here. I feel like an old man watching a bunch of kids joyriding, drinking and running red lights.

    “Cut that shit out, kids!”
    ” SHUT THE F UP, GRANDPA! Go suck a tea bag!”

      • Yes, sundancer, but I am assuming that doesn't have any long term implications since it didn't hit it's containment level. I guess we have a pullback now to 1120 or so and then new highs. Oh joy.

        • i wouldn't worry too much about .26, the sequence setup I posted this morning is much more important

          • Yes, but are you suggesting the sequence setup could indicate a long term top or do you think it is just an interim top? I need to decide now whether I cover on a decent pullback or stick with my original conviction that we are at a long term top. Regardless of how you answer though, I will not pin my final decision on you.

  7. Carl at day’s end:

    1147-1161 1st estimate today for /ES (14 points, June contract)
    1157-1170 2nd estimate today (13 points)
    1157.50 -1165.50 actual today (8 points)
    Missed it so bad he revised it.

    Trades:
    In /ES at 1161.50, out at 1161.50 for breakeven

    Grade C (didn’t lose any money)

  8. TZA opened down 0.8%. Gap today was not filled. TZA was down 0.8% at it’s high (the open). TZA closed down 2.0%.

    We are in a New Moon Trade, which favors TZA, starting at the close today.
    After two days, this trade is down 4.3%. AmericanBulls will surely issue a sell signal in 90 minutes, so I am selling now. TZA can be sold now in the after hours session at $7.06, so that is the selling price. This trade will buy TZA again once AmericanBulls issues a BUY signal.

    Volume for TZA was the highest of the last 25 days.

    $RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 1.0% with TZA down 2.3%. No divergence.

    TZA has now been down 9 of the last 11 days.

    The low for TZA today was $6.93. This is the lowest TZA price ever.

    Ultimate Oscillator for TZA bottomed at 20 eighteen trading days ago and has generally risen since then but has remained below 50 and is currently 32. Indicating continued weakness for TZA. Today’s value was lower than yesterday which was the highest of it’s previous 4 days, so the mild Ultimate Oscillator up trend ended today. Not good for TZA.

    Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s candle finally fell below the congestion area toward the bottom Bollinger Band. Lowest close of the last 7 days. The lower Bollinger band quit rising. MACD has crossed from below. Looks like $RVX is dropping. Bad for TZA.

    Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The white candle for $RUT moved up today, along with the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that $RUT might rise tomorrow. $RUT hit a new high today. Bad for TZA. (everything same as yesterday)

    Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s candle rose above the
    congestion area. The upper Bollinger band rose after being flat for days. Perhaps indicating that TZA will fall.

    TZA had a lower high, lower low and lower close (2nd day in a row) – all bad for TZA.

    I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.

    Overall, it looks like TZA might fall tomorrow.

  9. The view from Americanbulls

    TNA is a confirmed BUY today. TNA is available now for $55.93 in the after hours session. AmericanBulls recorded their buy at $55.36 (opening price). The candlestick of today was a White Candlestick (normal buying pressure).

    TNA was up 3.6% since the sell signal two days ago, using AmericanBulls price points.

    TZA is a confirmed SELL today. TZA can be sold for $7.05 now in the after hours session. AmericanBulls recorded their sale at $7.14 (opening price). The candlestick of today was Black Spinning Top (complete indecision between the Bulls & Bears).

    TZA was down 4.3% since the buy signal. The buy was at $7.37, and the sell at $7.05 using after hours prices available when the signals were confirmed.
    AmericanBulls has this at down 3.9%, using their buy and sell points.

    In this particular situation, the difference between the buy and sell points as calculated by AmericanBulls and those price points available after hours once the buy and sell signals were confirmed was: 10.3%. Sounds like a really big number, but it’s only one trade, and really need quite a few trades to see how this looks longer term.

    Summary: Sell TZA, Buy TNA.

  10. important sequence from the 3.24.2000 $SPX high
    9 years 11 months 21 days

    thank you operators for the $SPX closing number
    1166.21 = 11 – 9 (9) – 21

  11. Carl at day’s end:

    1147-1161 1st estimate today for /ES (14 points, June contract)
    1157-1170 2nd estimate today (13 points)
    1157.50 -1165.50 actual today (8 points)
    Missed it so bad he revised it.

    Trades:
    In /ES at 1161.50, out at 1161.50 for breakeven

    Grade C (didn’t lose any money)

  12. TZA opened down 0.8%. Gap today was not filled. TZA was down 0.8% at it’s high (the open). TZA closed down 2.0%.

    We are in a New Moon Trade, which favors TZA, starting at the close today.
    After two days, this trade is down 4.3%. AmericanBulls will surely issue a sell signal in 90 minutes, so I am selling now. TZA can be sold now in the after hours session at $7.06, so that is the selling price. This trade will buy TZA again once AmericanBulls issues a BUY signal.

    Volume for TZA was the highest of the last 25 days.

    $RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 1.0% with TZA down 2.3%. No divergence.

    TZA has now been down 9 of the last 11 days.

    The low for TZA today was $6.93. This is the lowest TZA price ever.

    Ultimate Oscillator for TZA bottomed at 20 eighteen trading days ago and has generally risen since then but has remained below 50 and is currently 32. Indicating continued weakness for TZA. Today’s value was lower than yesterday which was the highest of it’s previous 4 days, so the mild Ultimate Oscillator up trend ended today. Not good for TZA.

    Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s candle finally fell below the congestion area toward the bottom Bollinger Band. Lowest close of the last 7 days. The lower Bollinger band quit rising. MACD has crossed from below. Looks like $RVX is dropping. Bad for TZA.

    Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The white candle for $RUT moved up today, along with the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that $RUT might rise tomorrow. $RUT hit a new high today. Bad for TZA. (everything same as yesterday)

    Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s candle rose above the
    congestion area. The upper Bollinger band rose after being flat for days. Perhaps indicating that TZA will fall.

    TZA had a lower high, lower low and lower close (2nd day in a row) – all bad for TZA.

    I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.

    Overall, it looks like TZA might fall tomorrow.

  13. The view from Americanbulls

    TNA is a confirmed BUY today. TNA is available now for $55.93 in the after hours session. AmericanBulls recorded their buy at $55.36 (opening price). The candlestick of today was a White Candlestick (normal buying pressure).

    TNA was up 3.6% since the sell signal two days ago, using AmericanBulls price points.

    TZA is a confirmed SELL today. TZA can be sold for $7.05 now in the after hours session. AmericanBulls recorded their sale at $7.14 (opening price). The candlestick of today was Black Spinning Top (complete indecision between the Bulls & Bears).

    TZA was down 4.3% since the buy signal. The buy was at $7.37, and the sell at $7.05 using after hours prices available when the signals were confirmed.
    AmericanBulls has this at down 3.9%, using their buy and sell points.

    In this particular situation, the difference between the buy and sell points as calculated by AmericanBulls and those price points available after hours once the buy and sell signals were confirmed was: 10.3%. Sounds like a really big number, but it’s only one trade, and really need quite a few trades to see how this looks longer term.

    Summary: Sell TZA, Buy TNA.

  14. TZA looks awful.

    TNA must therefore look wonderful. But a gap and go at this point in the rally has me thinking exhaustion gap.

    Or just a powerful unending rally.

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