the only weekly setup that is remotely intriguing is the $VIX weekly
The $VIX currently has 4 consecutive lower closes than opens on it's weekly and since the $VIX peaked during the 10/20/08 week the $VIX only has one sequence longer than 4 consecutive lower closes than opens. That sequence which ended @ 6 originated during the 11/24/2008 week and terminated during the 12/29/2008 week
Expanding our time parameters to the 8/13/2007 week as our starting point we see 2 more occurrences where there were 4 consecutive lower closes than opens and 1 occurrence where there was 6 consecutive lower closes than opens which terminated during the 8/18/08 week.
Unfortunately I don't think us bears will see the big crash until later this year. But, I'll take any sell off they give me at this point.
I posted that email exactly as it came too me, but it seems odd thinking that all the dip buyers will push the market back down? Did he make a mistake in his post? Shouldn't that say that the dip buyers will push the market back up? What am I missing here?
> Therefore on the next anticipated pullback or > dip all the traders that missed this move up, which was majority of the traders > will buy into this move, which should push it back down…
I got your reply email by the way… just let me know whenever.
On another note, here is some comments from Master che trader David Gott (whatever that means? But he's pretty good and many follow him)
Comments….
> 3/7/10 > > 4:11EST > > ESH10: > > The move up from 1114.00 to 1138.75 bothers me; > > We should have pulled back below 1114.00 before > the breakout; > > Which we didn’t instead we went parabolic. > > Generally when this happens we head back to the > region where the pullback should have occurred. > > This move up from 1084.50 was basically one > large trader > > Therefore on the next anticipated pullback or > dip all the traders that missed this move up, which was majority of the traders > will buy into this move, which should push it back down… > > In other words for the short term (1 to 3 days) > I’m expecting a pullback > > Reaching 1143.50 or not before this anticipated > pullback will determine the depth of the pullback and also when and where this > large trader takes profit, I wouldn’t be surprise to see him switch sides for a > sweet profitable swing trade.. > > Basically he’s the market. > > Another thing that bothers me, is this; the > move up from 1114.00 was to easy.. > > Don’t get me wrong; we will make new highs, > although I’m expecting a pullback beforehand. >
He sends this out through email, and I don't know where to sign up to get on his list? (Someone forwarded it too me). I don't even know if it's private information or not? I don't believe he's charging for it though?
But clearly, he has access to what is going on down on the trading floor. So, I thought I'd post it.
much can be learned by observing the behavior of markets around containment points, the $RUT has been the tell for the last month so we'll focus on it http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44162…
the last 5 days the $RUT has blown through 2 containment points in a uni-directional manner, if you study the above chart very closely you'll see how the $RUT reacts when blowing through consecutive containment points
Now what is interesting to note is the last two times this has happened it's marked an inflection point.
First time it happened was on 9/9/09 & 9/16/09 then the $RUT went on to dance sideways for 5 days which marked a top for 3 months.
Second time this happened was on 10/27/2009 & 10/30/2009, one trading day later on 11/2/2009 the $RUT put in a bottom that has held for 4 months and counting.
At any rate, this week has important implications for longer term setups.
After the pullback… to whatever level it stops at, new highs could happen? The trend is pointing up currently, and the pullback is not likely to change that.
But it could of course? It really depends on how far the pullback takes us? Will it be really shallow and only make it to 111.50, or a little deeper and go to 109.00? If it falls to 104.00 again, I believe the trend will turn down at that point.
I'd like to see that, but I don't know if it will go that far down? I see some type of pullback coming… how deep is another question?
A smaller pullback would keep the uptrend intact. If that happens, then we will most likely break the 1150 top this Spring and Summer.
Yes, a sad day for the bears. I think the bears should just take the next 6 months off, and wait for this fall. It should be exciting about then.
This is not something people want to hear, especially not those with a bearish bias. The truth is, the market is experiencing an extremely bullish momemtum acceleration. What this means is every pullback will be bought and a new high followed. Short term it is overbought and a sharp pullback is expected. But following the pullback will be a catapult to a new high.
We have a runaway train accelerating downhill. It will crash a lot of bears. If you are short and the goddess Fortuna smiles upon you, then count your blessing, don't fight the reversal that follows.
I hope this helps to shed some light on what comes next. If this helps to spare some pain in the months ahead, be sure to donate to Anna's animal rescue fund (over at HOB).
the only weekly setup that is remotely intriguing is the $VIX weekly
The $VIX currently has 4 consecutive lower closes than opens on it's weekly and since the $VIX peaked during the 10/20/08 week the $VIX only has one sequence longer than 4 consecutive lower closes than opens. That sequence which ended @ 6 originated during the 11/24/2008 week and terminated during the 12/29/2008 week
Expanding our time parameters to the 8/13/2007 week as our starting point we see 2 more occurrences where there were 4 consecutive lower closes than opens and 1 occurrence where there was 6 consecutive lower closes than opens which terminated during the 8/18/08 week.
Thanks G…
Unfortunately I don't think us bears will see the big crash until later this year. But, I'll take any sell off they give me at this point.
I posted that email exactly as it came too me, but it seems odd thinking that all the dip buyers will push the market back down? Did he make a mistake in his post? Shouldn't that say that the dip buyers will push the market back up? What am I missing here?
> Therefore on the next anticipated pullback or
> dip all the traders that missed this move up, which was majority of the traders
> will buy into this move, which should push it back down…
HI Red, Nice Post.
I got your reply email by the way… just let me know whenever.
On another note, here is some comments from Master che trader David Gott (whatever that means? But he's pretty good and many follow him)
Comments….
> 3/7/10
>
> 4:11EST
>
> ESH10:
>
> The move up from 1114.00 to 1138.75 bothers me;
>
> We should have pulled back below 1114.00 before
> the breakout;
>
> Which we didn’t instead we went parabolic.
>
> Generally when this happens we head back to the
> region where the pullback should have occurred.
>
> This move up from 1084.50 was basically one
> large trader
>
> Therefore on the next anticipated pullback or
> dip all the traders that missed this move up, which was majority of the traders
> will buy into this move, which should push it back down…
>
> In other words for the short term (1 to 3 days)
> I’m expecting a pullback
>
> Reaching 1143.50 or not before this anticipated
> pullback will determine the depth of the pullback and also when and where this
> large trader takes profit, I wouldn’t be surprise to see him switch sides for a
> sweet profitable swing trade..
>
> Basically he’s the market.
>
> Another thing that bothers me, is this; the
> move up from 1114.00 was to easy..
>
> Don’t get me wrong; we will make new highs,
> although I’m expecting a pullback beforehand.
>
He sends this out through email, and I don't know where to sign up to get on his list? (Someone forwarded it too me). I don't even know if it's private information or not? I don't believe he's charging for it though?
But clearly, he has access to what is going on down on the trading floor. So, I thought I'd post it.
Gm, Sundancer, Thanks for the update. Up or sideways is my guess.
much can be learned by observing the behavior of markets around containment points, the $RUT has been the tell for the last month so we'll focus on it
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44162…
the last 5 days the $RUT has blown through 2 containment points in a uni-directional manner, if you study the above chart very closely you'll see how the $RUT reacts when blowing through consecutive containment points
Now what is interesting to note is the last two times this has happened it's marked an inflection point.
First time it happened was on 9/9/09 & 9/16/09 then the $RUT went on to dance sideways for 5 days which marked a top for 3 months.
Second time this happened was on 10/27/2009 & 10/30/2009, one trading day later on 11/2/2009 the $RUT put in a bottom that has held for 4 months and counting.
At any rate, this week has important implications for longer term setups.
After the pullback… to whatever level it stops at, new highs could happen? The trend is pointing up currently, and the pullback is not likely to change that.
But it could of course? It really depends on how far the pullback takes us? Will it be really shallow and only make it to 111.50, or a little deeper and go to 109.00? If it falls to 104.00 again, I believe the trend will turn down at that point.
I'd like to see that, but I don't know if it will go that far down? I see some type of pullback coming… how deep is another question?
A smaller pullback would keep the uptrend intact. If that happens, then we will most likely break the 1150 top this Spring and Summer.
Yes, a sad day for the bears. I think the bears should just take the next 6 months off, and wait for this fall. It should be exciting about then.
This is not something people want to hear, especially not those with a bearish bias. The truth is, the market is experiencing an extremely bullish momemtum acceleration. What this means is every pullback will be bought and a new high followed. Short term it is overbought and a sharp pullback is expected. But following the pullback will be a catapult to a new high.
We have a runaway train accelerating downhill. It will crash a lot of bears. If you are short and the goddess Fortuna smiles upon you, then count your blessing, don't fight the reversal that follows.
I hope this helps to shed some light on what comes next. If this helps to spare some pain in the months ahead, be sure to donate to Anna's animal rescue fund (over at HOB).
Thanks gc
Thanks Earl