MID-DAY MINUTE BY MIKE PAULENOFF: Here's Mike Paulinof today: see end
My educated guess for tomorrow is the following (Mostly about currencies)
Weaker than expected NFP (due to blizzards and forex TV yest said so) about -100K.
Typically the Euro bolts initially in a direction that is opposite to the trend that it establishes for the remainder of the day (Kathy Lien strategy). S&P drops heavily at some point perhaps due to weak employment, watch the Euro follow down.
This is hypothetical folks, but I thought I'd let you know how a really bad trader with no money operates. I'll let you know if I make a killing.
It is that time again — for the bottoming of the 20-25 day cycle in the S&P 500 (SPX). The problem is that since the Feb. 5th pivot low at 1044.50, the ENTIRE cycle has been on the upside — so far. Usually, when a cycle is so lopsided to the upside, the final 1-3 sessions ahead of an anticipated low ushers in some intense weakness. Today is the 18th session off of the 2/05 low. If the current cycle proves to be 21 days in duration, then next Monday we should expect a low. If this cycle is 25 days long (like the Jan-Feb cycle), then the low could be Friday 3/12. With this Friday's Employment Report certain to create intense market volatility, and because it coincides with the “window” for a forthcoming cycle low, Mr. Market could be setting up for a serious bout of weakness starting THIS Friday into early next week.
Alternatively, if the SPX moves straight up into and in reaction to Friday's report, the technical work is warning me to sell into the news ahead of the anticipated cycle low. With the SPX up 6% since the last Employment Report (Feb 5th), the potential for a nasty correction would appear to be gaining steam. Purely from a price perspective, a decline in the SPX that breaks 1115.70 will be my first strong signal that the “downside” of the near-term cycle is in progress.
TNA gapped up for the 4th day in a row. Unlike the prior three days, this time the gap was filled. The gap up was 0.5% and TNA closed up 1.1%. Lower High, Higher low.
We are in a Full Moon Trade, which favors TNA. After four days, this trade is up 10.7%.
Volume for TNA has been trending down for 4 days now.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed 2.9% lower with TNA up 1.1%.
TNA has been up 15 of the past 17 days.
The high for TNA today was 27 cents lower than yesterdays $48.98, which was the highest TNA since Oct 21st.
Ultimate Oscillator for TNA peaked at 78 eight trading days ago and has generally fallen since then but has remained above 50 and is currently 71. Indicating continued strength for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s candle closed closer to the lower band and the lower Bollinger band is **off the chart**. Hard to read, but looks like $RVX is falling again, good for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The candle for $RUT was beside the candle for yesterday, a sideways action after three rising candles. Pulled away from the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that $RUT might be pausing here. Indecisive.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s candle moved higher, in line with further upside for TNA.
Gapping zones to watch: SPY 112.72-112.85 113.15-113.22 above these 2 zones and it's likely to be a trend day 111.81 -111.90 below this zone and it's likely to be a trend day
It's just a statement of which way this market has been going. UP.
I remember 1 to 1. That was a while ago.
5 to 1 didn't last very long. 7 to 1 seems to be coming soon.
forgot to mention concerning my scenerio below. The Euro bolts up due to weak employment then tanks due to a weakening (?sharply weakening) s&p
MID-DAY MINUTE BY MIKE PAULENOFF:
Here's Mike Paulinof today: see end
My educated guess for tomorrow is the following (Mostly about currencies)
Weaker than expected NFP (due to blizzards and forex TV yest said so) about -100K.
Typically the Euro bolts initially in a direction that is opposite to the trend that it establishes for the remainder of the day (Kathy Lien strategy). S&P drops heavily at some point perhaps due to weak employment, watch the Euro follow down.
This is hypothetical folks, but I thought I'd let you know how a really bad trader with no money operates. I'll let you know if I make a killing.
By Mike Paulenoff, http://www.MPTrader.com
It is that time again — for the bottoming of the 20-25 day cycle in the S&P 500 (SPX). The problem is that since the Feb. 5th pivot low at 1044.50, the ENTIRE cycle has been on the upside — so far. Usually, when a cycle is so lopsided to the upside, the final 1-3 sessions ahead of an anticipated low ushers in some intense weakness. Today is the 18th session off of the 2/05 low. If the current cycle proves to be 21 days in duration, then next Monday we should expect a low. If this cycle is 25 days long (like the Jan-Feb cycle), then the low could be Friday 3/12. With this Friday's Employment Report certain to create intense market volatility, and because it coincides with the “window” for a forthcoming cycle low, Mr. Market could be setting up for a serious bout of weakness starting THIS Friday into early next week.
Alternatively, if the SPX moves straight up into and in reaction to Friday's report, the technical work is warning me to sell into the news ahead of the anticipated cycle low. With the SPX up 6% since the last Employment Report (Feb 5th), the potential for a nasty correction would appear to be gaining steam. Purely from a price perspective, a decline in the SPX that breaks 1115.70 will be my first strong signal that the “downside” of the near-term cycle is in progress.
What do you make of that Earl?
The ratio of TNA to TZA is now 6 to 1.
Unreal.
And the beat goes on!!!!!! Nice Post
TNA gapped up for the 4th day in a row. Unlike the prior three days, this time the gap was filled. The gap up was 0.5% and TNA closed up 1.1%. Lower High, Higher low.
We are in a Full Moon Trade, which favors TNA.
After four days, this trade is up 10.7%.
Volume for TNA has been trending down for 4 days now.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed 2.9% lower with TNA up 1.1%.
TNA has been up 15 of the past 17 days.
The high for TNA today was 27 cents lower than yesterdays $48.98, which was the highest TNA since Oct 21st.
Ultimate Oscillator for TNA peaked at 78 eight trading days ago and has generally fallen since then but has remained above 50 and is currently 71. Indicating continued strength for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s candle closed closer to the lower band and the lower Bollinger band is **off the chart**. Hard to read, but looks like $RVX is falling again, good for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The candle for $RUT was beside the candle for yesterday, a sideways action after three rising candles. Pulled away from the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that $RUT might be pausing here. Indecisive.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s candle moved higher, in line with further upside for TNA.
http://www.americanbulls.com had TNA as a BUY on Feb 9th, and hold since then. TNA remains a hold for tomorrow.
Overall, it looks like TNA continues to move above an area of congestion and might continue rising tomorrow.
Carl at days end:
1116-1130 estimate today for /ES
1115.50 – 1123.50 actual today
Trades: Bought 1 unit of /ES 1119.50 (up 2.75 right now)
Holding it over night.
Grade: Incomplete
setup for tomorrow:
Gapping zones to watch:
SPY 112.72-112.85
113.15-113.22
above these 2 zones and it's likely to be a trend day
111.81 -111.90
below this zone and it's likely to be a trend day
remember the $SPX 1127.38 gap hasn't been filled
Monica,
I feel pretty good about buying TZA if conditions are right for the buy signal.
Buying TNA here because the sell signal failed feels awkward and iffy and 32% too late. Might work.