the TA enthusiasts will see a inverse H&S, those patterns are of no value to me, everybody has heard me explaining the 1127.38 gap so once that gap is filled my inventory will be unloaded for this setup.
It is important to note if we get a higher close than open on the $SPX today it'll be 5 consecutive in this sequence. An important clue on the daily especially if we close the 1127.38 gap today.
For this recent rally over the last few weeks, IWM has set higher prices, but today we saw an interesting divergence. The Slow STO did not set a new high, but price did. I'm no EW guy, but I think that means “wave 5” (i.e. last of the upthrust) is upon us. Anyway, I'm not hung up on that.
The November fractal makes a possible reappearance. If so, we saw the high of the week today. New highs over the next few days takes it off the table. One thing is different: In Nov. the bollinger bands were headed “down”, while today they are headed “up”. I think this was due to the notion that a weaker dollar is better for DOW, and a stronger dollar is better for $RUT.
Why did I choose IWM instead of $RUT? (go on, ask me). Okay, here's why: Intra-day price squiggles seem keyed off of IWM instead of $RUT. For example, the closing price on Thursday was right on IWM's 50 day MA (where as on $RUT it was well above). This was a bear trap — people who analyzed $RUT based on just IWM might think “it barely closed above 50 day support that's so bearish!” whereas $RUT was clearly above the 50. Always good to check both to look for fake moves.
What if…?
What if $RUT is going to set a new 52 week high? We are less than 2% away, maybe 1% and some change. What will that do to bearish sentiment? Bears will (reasonably) wonder if maybe they jumped the gun on shorting. Quants and HFTs will try to pump the other indexes to new highs. What if $RUT makes a new high but others do not confirm? I don't know what that means but that's why I've stayed on the sidelines. Take a few minutes and adjust your trading plan accordingly.
TNA: possible sell from last Friday is not confirmed. TNA is a hold for tomorrow. (I figured this much)
TZA: todays candlestick is a (wait for it, wait for it) Black Opening Marubozu !
Frankly, I think they made this one up. None the less, they claim the possible buy from last Friday is not a dead issue.
They claim tomorrow could see either a continuation (more down side for TZA) or a reversal (up side for TZA). A white candle for TZA tomorrow would be a buy signal.
Sundancer, thanks.. Spx 115 and S&P 1127.38 are important.
Earl, what are you up to today?
snapshot of controlling trendlines on SPY daily
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44007…
SPX 60 min chart
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44006…
the TA enthusiasts will see a inverse H&S, those patterns are of no value to me, everybody has heard me explaining the 1127.38 gap so once that gap is filled my inventory will be unloaded for this setup.
It is important to note if we get a higher close than open on the $SPX today it'll be 5 consecutive in this sequence. An important clue on the daily especially if we close the 1127.38 gap today.
Carl just now:
March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1113-1128. I expect the market to reach 1200 over the next three months.
1113-1128 Todays estimate range for /ES
1103-1116 Yesterdays estimate range for /ES
Carl owns one unit of /ES at 1098.50 since last Friday
It's up 23 at the moment.
Nice chart, Dreadwin
Gotta love those Japanese candlestick names. Or not.
Chart of IWM:
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
For this recent rally over the last few weeks, IWM has set higher prices, but today we saw an interesting divergence. The Slow STO did not set a new high, but price did. I'm no EW guy, but I think that means “wave 5” (i.e. last of the upthrust) is upon us. Anyway, I'm not hung up on that.
The November fractal makes a possible reappearance. If so, we saw the high of the week today. New highs over the next few days takes it off the table. One thing is different: In Nov. the bollinger bands were headed “down”, while today they are headed “up”. I think this was due to the notion that a weaker dollar is better for DOW, and a stronger dollar is better for $RUT.
Why did I choose IWM instead of $RUT? (go on, ask me). Okay, here's why: Intra-day price squiggles seem keyed off of IWM instead of $RUT. For example, the closing price on Thursday was right on IWM's 50 day MA (where as on $RUT it was well above). This was a bear trap — people who analyzed $RUT based on just IWM might think “it barely closed above 50 day support that's so bearish!” whereas $RUT was clearly above the 50. Always good to check both to look for fake moves.
What if…?
What if $RUT is going to set a new 52 week high? We are less than 2% away, maybe 1% and some change. What will that do to bearish sentiment? Bears will (reasonably) wonder if maybe they jumped the gun on shorting. Quants and HFTs will try to pump the other indexes to new highs. What if $RUT makes a new high but others do not confirm? I don't know what that means but that's why I've stayed on the sidelines. Take a few minutes and adjust your trading plan accordingly.
http://www.americanbulls.com reports for today:
TNA: possible sell from last Friday is not confirmed. TNA is a hold for tomorrow. (I figured this much)
TZA: todays candlestick is a (wait for it, wait for it) Black Opening Marubozu !
Frankly, I think they made this one up. None the less, they claim the possible buy from last Friday is not a dead issue.
They claim tomorrow could see either a continuation (more down side for TZA) or a reversal (up side for TZA). A white candle for TZA tomorrow would be a buy signal.
Yes. We just need to see it hit the bollinger bands.