His archives are all there, if you want to look. My opinion on Carl is that if the underlying trend is bullish, he's really good. He did see things start to fall apart, and was within 10 SPX points of the nailing the February bottom, and nailed the trend change day correctly. My recollection is that he got clobbered by the relentless parade of bad news in fall 2008. He does occasionally short the market, too.
For this recent rally over the last few weeks, IWM has set higher prices, but today we saw an interesting divergence. The Slow STO did not set a new high, but price did. I'm no EW guy, but I think that means “wave 5” (i.e. last of the upthrust) is upon us. Anyway, I'm not hung up on that.
The November fractal makes a possible reappearance. If so, we saw the high of the week today. New highs over the next few days takes it off the table. One thing is different: In Nov. the bollinger bands were headed “down”, while today they are headed “up”. I think this was due to the notion that a weaker dollar is better for DOW, and a stronger dollar is better for $RUT.
Why did I choose IWM instead of $RUT? (go on, ask me). Okay, here's why: Intra-day price squiggles seem keyed off of IWM instead of $RUT. For example, the closing price on Thursday was right on IWM's 50 day MA (where as on $RUT it was well above). This was a bear trap — people who analyzed $RUT based on just IWM might think “it barely closed above 50 day support that's so bearish!” whereas $RUT was clearly above the 50. Always good to check both to look for fake moves.
What if…?
What if $RUT is going to set a new 52 week high? We are less than 2% away, maybe 1% and some change. What will that do to bearish sentiment? Bears will (reasonably) wonder if maybe they jumped the gun on shorting. Quants and HFTs will try to pump the other indexes to new highs. What if $RUT makes a new high but others do not confirm? I don't know what that means but that's why I've stayed on the sidelines. Take a few minutes and adjust your trading plan accordingly.
TNA: possible sell from last Friday is not confirmed. TNA is a hold for tomorrow. (I figured this much)
TZA: todays candlestick is a (wait for it, wait for it) Black Opening Marubozu !
Frankly, I think they made this one up. None the less, they claim the possible buy from last Friday is not a dead issue.
They claim tomorrow could see either a continuation (more down side for TZA) or a reversal (up side for TZA). A white candle for TZA tomorrow would be a buy signal.
His archives are all there, if you want to look. My opinion on Carl is that if the underlying trend is bullish, he's really good. He did see things start to fall apart, and was within 10 SPX points of the nailing the February bottom, and nailed the trend change day correctly. My recollection is that he got clobbered by the relentless parade of bad news in fall 2008. He does occasionally short the market, too.
Thanks Sundancer, it is certainly looking bullish.
This tip off will be filtered out and ignored by the bears.
Nice chart, Dreadwin
Gotta love those Japanese candlestick names. Or not.
Chart of IWM:
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
For this recent rally over the last few weeks, IWM has set higher prices, but today we saw an interesting divergence. The Slow STO did not set a new high, but price did. I'm no EW guy, but I think that means “wave 5” (i.e. last of the upthrust) is upon us. Anyway, I'm not hung up on that.
The November fractal makes a possible reappearance. If so, we saw the high of the week today. New highs over the next few days takes it off the table. One thing is different: In Nov. the bollinger bands were headed “down”, while today they are headed “up”. I think this was due to the notion that a weaker dollar is better for DOW, and a stronger dollar is better for $RUT.
Why did I choose IWM instead of $RUT? (go on, ask me). Okay, here's why: Intra-day price squiggles seem keyed off of IWM instead of $RUT. For example, the closing price on Thursday was right on IWM's 50 day MA (where as on $RUT it was well above). This was a bear trap — people who analyzed $RUT based on just IWM might think “it barely closed above 50 day support that's so bearish!” whereas $RUT was clearly above the 50. Always good to check both to look for fake moves.
What if…?
What if $RUT is going to set a new 52 week high? We are less than 2% away, maybe 1% and some change. What will that do to bearish sentiment? Bears will (reasonably) wonder if maybe they jumped the gun on shorting. Quants and HFTs will try to pump the other indexes to new highs. What if $RUT makes a new high but others do not confirm? I don't know what that means but that's why I've stayed on the sidelines. Take a few minutes and adjust your trading plan accordingly.
http://www.americanbulls.com reports for today:
TNA: possible sell from last Friday is not confirmed. TNA is a hold for tomorrow. (I figured this much)
TZA: todays candlestick is a (wait for it, wait for it) Black Opening Marubozu !
Frankly, I think they made this one up. None the less, they claim the possible buy from last Friday is not a dead issue.
They claim tomorrow could see either a continuation (more down side for TZA) or a reversal (up side for TZA). A white candle for TZA tomorrow would be a buy signal.
Yes. We just need to see it hit the bollinger bands.
The tradeable move you are referring to would be in TZA?
Nice Post Earl.