Regarding Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT) in my above post:
In my head I still have a vivid image of that chart. Can't reproduce it, though, and now I wonder what chart I was looking at. Anyway, the chart I now see looks more like this:
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s red candle moved toward the bottom Bollinger band, which itself moved lower. Tomorrow could see an even lower $RVX, which would be good for TNA.
Re: TNA moving horizontally. That's what I predicted in my 2/23 TZA chart. TZA takes 5-8 days (recently) to bottom out. I think $RUT will make another thrust up, but it $RVX stochs cannot go much lower. One caveat: $RVX's bollinger band is *much lower* than it was earlier this week. You might have to endure some more pain in TZA.
On Feb. 19th (one week ago), I plotted a possible trendline for $RVX (the $VIX for Russell). The gist of things is that we would consolidate sideways for a while, despite all of the “P3 is here!” calls on various blogs.
Sounds like a top is almost in on the Russell, which means the rest of the market is soon to follow.
Thanks for the updates. Although I don't trade the Russell, I'm sure others that read your posts might… so keep up the good work, and have a great weekend.
Market close today starts the Full Moon Trade, which favors TNA. The full moon is this Sunday.
Volume today for TNA was roughly normal.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed 4.1% lower, favoring TNA.
TNA has been up 11 of the past 13 days.
Ultimate Oscillator for TNA peaked at 78 five trading days ago and has generally fallen since then but has remained above 50 and is currently 64. This indicates waning strength, favoring TNA for the time being. (Note: An Ultimate Oscillator reading of 80 is generally a top or a near top)
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s red candle touched the bottom Bollinger band and closed near it. Tomorrow could see a bounce off that band, or $RVX and the bottom band could both drop. No clear direction here.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: $RUT dropped to the Bollinger mid point line and bounced to midway to the upper Bollinger band. The bands are getting narrow. No clear direction here.
http://www.americanbulls.com had TNA as a BUY on Feb 9th, and a hold since then. After the close today, TNA was still a hold but also a possible SELL on Monday. TNA is available right now (after hours) for $43.81, so this trade will start with that price.
Overall, it looks like TNA is moving horizontally, neither up nor down.
Every indicator or trading tools has been “out of whack” ever since March 6th, 2009 when the money spigot was turned on full blast.
Since March, a fairly safe prediction is “market consolidates sideways or pushes higher” 🙂
Dreadwin,
You do a good job with those predictions 🙂
Regarding Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT) in my above post:
In my head I still have a vivid image of that chart. Can't reproduce it, though, and now I wonder what chart I was looking at. Anyway, the chart I now see looks more like this:
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s red candle moved toward the bottom Bollinger band, which itself moved lower. Tomorrow could see an even lower $RVX, which would be good for TNA.
I think that the new moon / full moon cycles have been completely out of whack since November.
Re: TNA moving horizontally. That's what I predicted in my 2/23 TZA chart. TZA takes 5-8 days (recently) to bottom out. I think $RUT will make another thrust up, but it $RVX stochs cannot go much lower. One caveat: $RVX's bollinger band is *much lower* than it was earlier this week. You might have to endure some more pain in TZA.
I've been taking a break from trading but I still do make some charts from time to time.
These are some charts I made earlier in the week, so you can check my accuracy:
This is a chart I made on the 23rd (Tuesday) because TZA is a fun bear ETF to play with:
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
The gist of my point was TZA never has a “V” shaped bottom, and that maybe eager bears should wait. It seems to take at least 5 days to bottom out.
I made this chart of $RUT the same day.
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
As you know, I like fractals. Based on the September fractal, I made a prediction. Which didn't play out.
Today's thoughts on $RUT:
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
On Feb. 19th (one week ago), I plotted a possible trendline for $RVX (the $VIX for Russell). The gist of things is that we would consolidate sideways for a while, despite all of the “P3 is here!” calls on various blogs.
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
Here's the update:
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
Sounds like a top is almost in on the Russell, which means the rest of the market is soon to follow.
Thanks for the updates. Although I don't trade the Russell, I'm sure others that read your posts might… so keep up the good work, and have a great weekend.
Market close today starts the Full Moon Trade, which favors TNA. The full moon is this Sunday.
Volume today for TNA was roughly normal.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed 4.1% lower, favoring TNA.
TNA has been up 11 of the past 13 days.
Ultimate Oscillator for TNA peaked at 78 five trading days ago and has generally fallen since then but has remained above 50 and is currently 64. This indicates waning strength, favoring TNA for the time being. (Note: An Ultimate Oscillator reading of 80 is generally a top or a near top)
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s red candle touched the bottom Bollinger band and closed near it. Tomorrow could see a bounce off that band, or $RVX and the bottom band could both drop. No clear direction here.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: $RUT dropped to the Bollinger mid point line and bounced to midway to the upper Bollinger band. The bands are getting narrow. No clear direction here.
http://www.americanbulls.com had TNA as a BUY on Feb 9th, and a hold since then. After the close today, TNA was still a hold but also a possible SELL on Monday. TNA is available right now (after hours) for $43.81, so this trade will start with that price.
Overall, it looks like TNA is moving horizontally, neither up nor down.
Not too much upside left… I think? March should bring some more volume into the market, of which… most of it will be selling!