I just watched myself Ben. I think his second possibility is the most likely path for next week. I think they will run up next week and close out February positive.
Also, if they take it down to 1080 or so by Friday, that would draw in a lot of bears thinking the move down to 1030 or so has started. Then rally back next week to squeeze them all out. That's just the way they do it.
That works well with a nice Elliottwave ABC move up too. Could be a 5 wave move too. There is a key turn date coming up in the first week of March. When I know it, I'll post it. But, I suspect it will occur when we tag that master resistance level between 112.00-112.50 spy.
I know sundancer was taking about a gap fill at 1127.38 too. Not sure what that is on the spy, but I'd say it's closer to 113.00. That could happen intraday, but I don't see any daily close on that level, as the 112.00-112.50 is the daily resistance.
Looks like March could be ugly. But, let's see what tomorrow brings first…
Very soon now, maybe even tomorrow, Carl is going to call for a “reaction move” i.e. we're near the top of one of his big boxes/channels and need to retrace a bit. These moves are as large as 20 points.
I don't see us starting our big wave 3 down yet Monica. We need one more week of a choppy market to put in a nice bear flag on the week. Plus the month ends next week, and I think the big move will happen in the first week of March.
I'd really like to see 112.00-112.50 spy next week. Just stay out of the market for now. Don't lose anymore money. I'm not going to make that mistake again. That one really hurt.
We need to work off the daily rising MACD, which should go up and start to roll back down next week. Hang tough… no more big mistakes.
As for tomorrow, and Friday… the current pain is 108, but 109 is almost at the same level. So, I'd say they split the difference and close about 108.50 Friday. That assumes that the current pain is accurate?
I know it only takes into account the last 3-4 weeks of options activite, whereas the option pain includes everything from the time the option month was created. That could be up to 2 1/2 years ago. That's why it's free, and the current pain isn't.
We'll see for tomorrow. I think sundancer said that apple looked bearish for tomorrow, and I guess you heard about gold dropping afterhours because some country (I think?) said they were going to sell ton's of it.
Daneric also has the dollar starting a possible wave 3 of wave 3 up, so all things are looking like a pullback tomorrow.
dreadwin,
I was trying to lift Monica's spirits 🙂
(I can't do anything for her portfolio)
Focus, focus, focus.
TZA is going up tomorrow.
TZA is going up tomorrow.
TZA is going up tomorrow.
I haven't tried chanting. It's worth a shot.
Here's one from last month:
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2010/01/update.html
I Like Carl's style, but haven't followed him long enough to have seen him call a “reaction move”. Look forward to it.
One of my regular practices is that I check out Kenny and Daneric's pages. If they both agree 100%, the market often does something else.
I just watched myself Ben. I think his second possibility is the most likely path for next week. I think they will run up next week and close out February positive.
Also, if they take it down to 1080 or so by Friday, that would draw in a lot of bears thinking the move down to 1030 or so has started. Then rally back next week to squeeze them all out. That's just the way they do it.
That works well with a nice Elliottwave ABC move up too. Could be a 5 wave move too. There is a key turn date coming up in the first week of March. When I know it, I'll post it. But, I suspect it will occur when we tag that master resistance level between 112.00-112.50 spy.
I know sundancer was taking about a gap fill at 1127.38 too. Not sure what that is on the spy, but I'd say it's closer to 113.00. That could happen intraday, but I don't see any daily close on that level, as the 112.00-112.50 is the daily resistance.
Looks like March could be ugly. But, let's see what tomorrow brings first…
Very soon now, maybe even tomorrow, Carl is going to call for a “reaction move” i.e. we're near the top of one of his big boxes/channels and need to retrace a bit. These moves are as large as 20 points.
It can go down 7 days in a row. While unlikely, $RUT could touch the upper bollinger band with a 2% move. It is possible, albeit unlikely.
In early September, $RUT had a 9/10 day up streak. The only down day was a doji, and that's because it crashed into the upper BB.
I'm hanging on to my small short position, with the expectation that the markets go down into op. ex.
I don't see us starting our big wave 3 down yet Monica. We need one more week of a choppy market to put in a nice bear flag on the week. Plus the month ends next week, and I think the big move will happen in the first week of March.
I'd really like to see 112.00-112.50 spy next week. Just stay out of the market for now. Don't lose anymore money. I'm not going to make that mistake again. That one really hurt.
We need to work off the daily rising MACD, which should go up and start to roll back down next week. Hang tough… no more big mistakes.
As for tomorrow, and Friday… the current pain is 108, but 109 is almost at the same level. So, I'd say they split the difference and close about 108.50 Friday. That assumes that the current pain is accurate?
I know it only takes into account the last 3-4 weeks of options activite, whereas the option pain includes everything from the time the option month was created. That could be up to 2 1/2 years ago. That's why it's free, and the current pain isn't.
We'll see for tomorrow. I think sundancer said that apple looked bearish for tomorrow, and I guess you heard about gold dropping afterhours because some country (I think?) said they were going to sell ton's of it.
Daneric also has the dollar starting a possible wave 3 of wave 3 up, so all things are looking like a pullback tomorrow.
If I were you I would listen to “chart pattern trader” that Red has on his blog list.
Now he's talkin “wave three”
“maybe a little more up” then down to 1030
http://www.thechartpatterntrader.com/index.php
Nothing makes sense! But those two usually go in opposite directions for whatever reason.