Weekend Update…

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greece-is-the-wild-card

This has been a really tough week for me, as the expected next leg down didn't happen.  I'm now underwater pretty bad in my put spread that I purchased back on Friday the 5th.  I completely forgot a post I did a month ago, showing a fake print of 1047 on the spx, or I would have known we weren't going any lower yet.  Isn't it's funny how we pierced that level (1044) a little, and immediately bounced back up.  If that doesn't show you that the market is controlled and manipulated... I don't know what will.

Sundancer also caught that fake print and seems to agree with me that this is clearly the way wall street informs their buddies as to where they plan on taking the market to.  By the way, thanks a lot for all the great comments you post Sundancer.  I'm sure everyone will agree that you are very knowledgeable about the market, and have helped myself and many others that read this blog.  So, keep up the good work...

As for next week... it could go either way?  I really just don't know at this point.  I do agree with Sundancer that a gap up Tuesday is very likely... but where we go after that will probably depend on if they can hold that gap or not.  How many shorts are left in the market to squeeze?  I don't know?  If there is enough of them left, then it's very possible that they run the market to 110.34 spy before selling off again.

The news on Tuesday about the Greece bailout problem could be the reason to push it up or sell it?  It's seems that there aren't any bears willing to go short right now, for fear of being squeezed, and there also isn't any bulls willing to go heavily long either.  In fact, I suspect that most bulls are waiting for 110.34 to sell their long positions.  We are truly stuck in this rising wedge or channel, and no one is taking on any large risk right now.

That's why everyone is day trading, which produced the wild intraday swings that we had last week.  Neither side knows which direction this tape is going to go in.  It's great for day traders, but murder for swing traders.  I'm not going to post any charts this time as not much as changed from Thursday post, so you can look at those for reference.  I will tell you that The Chart Pattern Trader has 2 video's up, and should be watched to understand where we are, and what could happen next week.

Cobra's Blog is also excellent, and has some interesting statistics on his weekend post.  I'm certainly not too proud or self centered to try and keep you here on my blog only, and not tell you about other great chartists and blog writers.  I want everyone to succeed, and if I can't provide you with that information, I'll do my best to guide you to sites that I think are important to read.  I didn't create this blog to get a huge following, or generate traffic.  I only put it up to help others and for me to keep a record of my success, and failures.

I would be doing everyone a disservice by not informing you of others that I respect, and I won't do that too you as I wouldn't want it done too me.  I was clearly wrong on my call last week for the sell off, as it didn't happen.  Will it happen this week, and make my calls just too early?  Possible?  I don't know?  I do know that the news coming out about Greece this Tuesday will make a big impact on whether we continue higher to 110.34, or sell off one more time before a nice relief rally occurs.

I will definitely be on the lookout for another fake print as to see where they want to take the market next.  (Sundancer, please keep your eye's glued to your monitor too... just in case I miss it).  I do see us going down more in March, as I believe we will go down to that 900 area.  But, that's too far out now to worry about, as there will be many bounces along the way.

So, for Tuesday I'm expecting a gap up.  After that, it's up to the Greece news to determine the next move.  If it's not what wall street wants to hear, we could see some big selling.  Remember, that would put us in a wave 3 of wave 3 down, and it could fall pretty fast.  This is assuming that the wave count I posted on Thursday is accurate.  If it's not, then any move down would just be a wave 2, with and expected wave 3 back up to occur.

By the way, the current pain on the SPY is at 108.00, but that doesn't mean that's where they will close the tape on Friday (OPX).  It's been wrong many times in the past, so I don't hold to much weight to it anymore.

Best of luck to all of us, and keep up the great comments gang...

Red

623 COMMENTS

    • Well mob,

      I try not to sugarcoat it, and just be straight up and honest about it. Right or wrong… I lay it out there.

      I think the key will be the open on Tuesday. If they gap over that resistance at 1080, to about 1092… then we're headed to 1102 or so very quickly. We'll see Tuesday I guess?

      • That's what I like, I mean no sugarcoating, no pretense….
        Believe at the moment, everything hinges on USD/Euro respectively Greece / Spain, whatever situation and markets can change within minutes – as we have seen last week…
        Anyway, Gong Xi Fa Cai – all the best in the Year of Golden Tiger…. And continue to share your views…

      • Hey there Red, hope you are hanging in there. We will know the truth soon. No matter how much analysis we do, we can't predict the future and probably to do so is gambling. I do think the market is not completely random and some people have connections to the inside. Who knows though. In the meanwhile, let's just hope for the best and learn our lesson for the next time.

        Thanks for your great posts. I always love reading them.

        • By the way Monica,

          Anna wanted me to put HOB back up, so I did. I had too email disqus about getting the comments back up and working. I re-activated them on HOB through wordpress, but they still don't work? So, I can only assume that they need to turn something back on from their end. Should be back up in a day or so.

  1. As Red has figured out and I'm sure many others here that the moves in the market are 100% manufactured.

    I posted this chart on Feb. 5, 2010 reminding people of the de-leverage tick on the SPY from Dec. 14, 2009
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43320
    then a few short hours later the SPX hit the 1047.28 area that Red and I noted on Jan. 11,2010.

    Co-relational to the market moves that are 100% manufactured, so is the NEWS that is fed to the zombies. Everybody seems focused on the Greece situation as if it's important, one question that should be asked is where was all this NEWS about Greece and other sovereign debt issues while the market was dancing up around 1150 for two weeks in January.

    The answer to that is, news is fed to the cattle (bulls) in order to direct them to the appropriate feeding trough (buy the tops/sell the bottoms).

    Most people have a short memory with the sovereign debt BS, remember the Dubai (Do buy) “scare” that was coincidentally released on Thanksgiving day while the market was closed, so the operators dump the futures 30 handles and scaring a whole bunch of people out of positions.

    We are bankrupt, they are bankrupt. Everything else is lies.

    Don't be numb to the divine ritual taking place in this thing called the Stock Market as in Live(stock) Market.

    Everyday the opening bell is rung as in Cow Bell and the day closes with the same ritual ringing the Cow Bell (closing bell).

    There is a very divine reason the Pits are in CHI-cago.

    What's in CHI-cago?
    Home of the:
    CHI-cago BULLS
    CHI-cago BEARS

    There's the fictional battle taking place between Bulls and Bears. When in actuality there is no battle taking place, but simple price engineering.

    This is a Numb-ers game co-relational to the Macro World which is based on Numb-ers and since most people are numb to numb-ers the illusionist always wins.

    People LIE, Numb-ers don't which is why its very easy to see the BULL (oops another reference to the sacred cow) they keep feeding us.

    Days like today are great for freeing your mind from the programming that's been done to it. The illusionist doesn't call it TV programming for kicks & giggles.

    I can't stress it enough that if you're involved in this numb-ers game, to isolate yourself from external programming (NEWS) until your mind is strong enough to deflect the programming.

    Once you get past the programming you'll be able to dance with the market in flawless rhythm. The market will lead the dance and you will follow.

    • Well,

      I may have figured out that the market and the news is controlled, but I still haven't figured out how to read it. But, if I was to think like they do, then I'd rally to 110.34 Tuesday, sell off to current pain at 108 Friday, and rally again the following week and put in new highs or a double top.

      Then when all the bulls are looking for the next leg up, and all the bears are broke, I'd tank it again. Screw the most amount of people, that's the most evil plan I can think of.

      That means they need to gap open to 1092 for the plan to work. A bear squeeze would then take it to 1100 or so pretty quickly. The move down to 1080 by opx would just be another way to draw in the bears. But 1080 would then be support, and the launching pad up for the next weeks move.

      Unfortunately for me, that would kill my options… which is exactly what they want too do.

    • Are you implying that Wolf and the Situation Room is somehow constructed to lead the view to a predetermined conclusion ?
      NO!

      • I knew there were a few people here that had both their eyes open…

        yes Wolf in the situation room is just one of many that plays an important role, he plays the role well with the full beard all silver in color

        SOLedad also plays an important role

        There's also this clown named SHEPARD on FOX news, yes a shepard leading the dumb sheep to the butcher house and a FOX telling the truth, lol

        • You're talk of fox and sheep lead me to believe that I've already missed the snowmageddon, and that the checks were cashed early this time. No more downside until another fake print leads the way.

          • it's all cleverly crafted

            Poor R and his LEG-atus theory, the cycle seems to be inverted, the May,Oct and now Feb. meeting all marked bottoms. I see R dropped his sub rate, his following must be hurting.

          • It's when the crooks (aka Wall Street) tell their buddies where they plan to take the market next. It could be in a month, or less… but once the selling begins, that's where it should end.

            Go look at my past post from a month ago about the 97 point mis-print (fake print). The market never went to 1047 that day. It only showed up for about 5 minutes on the money.cnn.com website, and then they corrected it to show the real close for the day.

            The link is in my post above. I forgot about it, or I would have bailed out on my short position when we tagged that level last week. (we actually pierced it and hit 1044 as the low, but that's close enough to where they said they were going to take it).

        • Don't even get me started on this shit. The whole entire system in this country is set up to keep the sheople confused and unable/unwilling to think for themselves.

  2. Sundancer390 I don't follow your vague references you say “follow the lexicon” what does that mean? How are we supposed to know?

    lex⋅i⋅con  /ˈlɛksɪˌkɒn, -kən/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [lek-si-kon, -kuhn] Show IPA
    –noun, plural lex⋅i⋅ca  /ˈlɛksɪkə/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [lek-si-kuh] Show IPA , lex⋅i⋅cons. 1. a wordbook or dictionary, esp. of Greek, Latin, or Hebrew.
    2. the vocabulary of a particular language, field, social class, person, etc.
    3. inventory or record: unparalleled in the lexicon of human relations.
    4. Linguistics. a. the total inventory of morphemes in a given language.
    b. the inventory of base morphemes plus their combinations with derivational morphemes.

    AND…… on friday you stated (see below)

    what are the 3 inputs? What do you mean by outputs?

    How are we to know what the heck your talking about?
    numbers are derived from data mining

    last night i was looking for a 6-9 pt gap based on 3 inputs and we got a 11 pt gap

    the same 3 inputs gives me a 13-17 pt gap potential given the closing setup, the way to read this output is the closing conditions of the market are fertile for above average volatility of the following open

    • bensjoyce that was in response to the divine ritual of the stock market co-relational to the macro

      you won't see me divulge how i come up with a specific numb-er as it comes out of data mining and i'm not going to write out a manual calculation

      if you don't like my charts and numb-ers, please ignore me

      • i suppose I like your charts and numb'ers but

        what is data mining?

        in other words you are not goin to tell us your “secret”?

        you could be a “false positive” front of the masonic lodge who is to spread confusion?

        • all i do is simple mathematics, throw a whole bunch of numbers together to give me a hard number (probability)

          there is no secret, just mathematics

          • Thanks for your work here. I think people are always looking for the silver bullet. It's not that easy, If it was then it would not be worth anything.

  3. Wonder is GS is going to start behaving themselves,It could be the new wipping boy for the EU.

    The new saying could be GOLDMAN MADE ME DO IT

  4. Hey Red I hope you can make sense of this and tell us what is going on.

    apparently the bottom is in?

    see evil speculator with $cpce

  5. Question for Sundancer390

    The line containing to the upside for the $spx is the 160 month mov. av. is this about correct? you figured it out for the spy. this is the “containment” to the upside.

    The containment to the downside is a line which you do not identify but it seems to be the 80 week mov. av.

    on the daily it seems you are using the 50 day mov av on the spy. As you say this has be backtested on the daily. So why do we have to go back up there?

    • 2 intra-day gaps on the SPX
      1085.89
      1127.38

      These gaps serve the same function as the rogue ticks on the SPY as an indication to all the regulators in the various issues where the de-leverage areas are at.

      We are going to fill the 1085.89 gap this morning.

      1127.38 is left.

  6. For you bears out there, here's an interesting video about the dollar, and what's next in Elliottwave terms. Remember, EW can be interpreted many different ways, and it's all subject to change.

    I don't know how go this woman is in her EW market calling, but if the dollar moves up as see forecasts it will, then the market will move down. Good for bears, and bad for bulls. It's an interesting video to pass the time away…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpmnXY0eKVo

    Read the comments too, and remember about how powerful wave 3's are. Maybe us bears won't get eaten alive this week… just maybe?

  7. Past six months Elliott Wavers became great contrarians, just bet against them make tons of money. At present, there is no C wave or third wave, IMHO, these are all money losing mechanisms. If you are losing money, it is time to stop counting waves and minimize losses. Recent market action is against established EW theory. IMO, shorts are in serious trouble on Tuesday.

  8. Just now from Carl Futia

    March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1074-1094. I think the ES is in the process of breaking out above its recent 1058-1080 trading range. I think the market will reach 1200 over the next three months.

    Note: with /ES at 1084 now, Carl's range for today is +10 to -10 from here.

      • when there is a gap on the SPX daily, meaning the operators actually gap the index on the open, there is a low probability it will fill the same day

        the reaction off spy 110.34 might back test the max. contain pt. on the 60 if it converges in the 109.03 area

  9. Carl Futia has declared the correction to be over, and has gone long half a position is /ES.

    He has been in cash the last 10 days.

  10. I've been informed that a bomb went off in JPM headquarters in Greece. I don't have any link for the story as it's too new. Please post one if any of you have any information about it.

  11. TZA closed down 5.1% today.

    Volume today for TNA was the lowest of the last 21 days.

    Today was the first day of the New Moon Trade.
    [ After one day, this trade is DOWN 5.1% ]

    RVX (VIX for RUT) moved generally down all day after the first 30 minutes or so, closing 2.1% lower.

    TZA has now been down five days in a row.

    Overall, it looks like TZA might fall again on Tuesday.

  12. eARL, this Carl Futia guy says we're headed to 1200 but
    oil is going to 50
    gold 875
    silver 10.00

    1200 would be mathematically impossible

    • If he is predicting the impossible, I can only surmise that he doesn't mean for them to all happen at the same time.

        • dreadwin,

          I focus on TNA & TZA, and whatever is also out there is maybe important or significant but I just don't have the bandwidth to keep up with it and make sense of it.

          I'll believe anyone who takes either position on whether Carl might possibly be right on all the issues he follows 🙂

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