Look at the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts. ALL pointing down now! We have awoken the bear, and he is hungry. Don't get caught long in this market. It will fool you!
I don't know if this is P3 or not SC? We could rally to 1200-1300 in the summer months… I don't know? But, I do know that the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts are ALL rolling over and pointing down now.
This is not the time to be bullish… that time is over for now. We have about 2 months of the bear ahead of us now. Any longs are for short term bounces only. I wish you luck my friend, but I'm staying short.
It's still on for next week. I'm looking for 1020 area first as that area is where the 200dma is, and we should bounce for a day or two?
Then, I believe we will fall though it like a knife cutting hot butter. Don't be fooled by anything the media says. We are going down… to where, I don't know yet.
If you're not short already, you should have a chance to get short Monday morning. The highest I can see us reaching is the 1080 area. If we rise in the morning as I expect, then by 11am-noon EST, I believe we'll see the high. It might be pushed to Tuesday, but if you get the chance to get short anywhere between 1070-1080… you'd better take it.
I'm telling you… we're sinking! First stop… the 200dma around 1020, next stop… the Twilight Zone?
you mentioned about a week ago that you had heard from a reliable source that early next week was being targeted for a big selloff,, can you tease us with that again?
Market reverses when the selling is done. It seems that all the reluctant, gunshy, burned manytimes bears finally threw in the towel this Friday. The fear of missing the PeeThree became too unbearable, not to mention the dreaded Black Monday. It is very likely that 1040 is the short term bottom. Data indicates that Nasdaq and foreignstocks will lead a rally, first to 1100, then to 1150. Pee Three will have to wait till Summer. 🙂
One step at a time. If and when the rally materializes, any decent trendfollowing indicators will pick it up. It isn't that people fail to pick up and follow a trend. It is their bias that causes them to dismiss a new trend. 🙂 Dont get married to your Pee Three. lol
That's exactly what they want you to think… that the bull is back. Don't believe it! All indicators are pointing down. This is headed to the low 900's within the next couple of months.
Yes Michigan… I agree. EW is really hard to predict before the move happens, but easy after it already has. A person could look at this move, and think that the bottom is in, and it's back to rallying again.
I don't think so… everything is rolling over now. This is only the start of a larger move down. This move will fail and trap a lot of bulls long… thinking that Monday's are always bullish! What if we crash Monday afternoon? That would surprise a lot of bulls…
It seemed today was more then Short Cov – looked like buying came in pretty big. Could it set up a possible 50% or 62% retrace of entire move Spy 110-112?
Red, thanks for your insights (and terrific pictures!!!). I think today's sharp bounce was a trap for bulls. Some market observers felt that late day bounce was a short covering rally. I tend to think too many people following EW and moving markets up and down in anticipation of different waves.
Wendy,
Look at the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts. ALL pointing down now! We have awoken the bear, and he is hungry. Don't get caught long in this market. It will fool you!
I don't know if this is P3 or not SC? We could rally to 1200-1300 in the summer months… I don't know? But, I do know that the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts are ALL rolling over and pointing down now.
This is not the time to be bullish… that time is over for now. We have about 2 months of the bear ahead of us now. Any longs are for short term bounces only. I wish you luck my friend, but I'm staying short.
It's still on for next week. I'm looking for 1020 area first as that area is where the 200dma is, and we should bounce for a day or two?
Then, I believe we will fall though it like a knife cutting hot butter. Don't be fooled by anything the media says. We are going down… to where, I don't know yet.
If you're not short already, you should have a chance to get short Monday morning. The highest I can see us reaching is the 1080 area. If we rise in the morning as I expect, then by 11am-noon EST, I believe we'll see the high. It might be pushed to Tuesday, but if you get the chance to get short anywhere between 1070-1080… you'd better take it.
I'm telling you… we're sinking! First stop… the 200dma around 1020, next stop… the Twilight Zone?
you mentioned about a week ago that you had heard from a reliable source that early next week was being targeted for a big selloff,, can you tease us with that again?
Market reverses when the selling is done. It seems that all the reluctant, gunshy, burned manytimes bears finally threw in the towel this Friday. The fear of missing the PeeThree became too unbearable, not to mention the dreaded Black Monday. It is very likely that 1040 is the short term bottom. Data indicates that Nasdaq and foreignstocks will lead a rally, first to 1100, then to 1150. Pee Three will have to wait till Summer. 🙂
One step at a time. If and when the rally materializes, any decent trendfollowing indicators will pick it up. It isn't that people fail to pick up and follow a trend. It is their bias that causes them to dismiss a new trend. 🙂 Dont get married to your Pee Three. lol
Low 900s yes, but probably need to wait until summer. my oppinion.
That's exactly what they want you to think… that the bull is back. Don't believe it! All indicators are pointing down. This is headed to the low 900's within the next couple of months.
Yes Michigan… I agree. EW is really hard to predict before the move happens, but easy after it already has. A person could look at this move, and think that the bottom is in, and it's back to rallying again.
I don't think so… everything is rolling over now. This is only the start of a larger move down. This move will fail and trap a lot of bulls long… thinking that Monday's are always bullish! What if we crash Monday afternoon? That would surprise a lot of bulls…
Red
It seemed today was more then Short Cov – looked like buying came in pretty big. Could it set up a possible 50% or 62% retrace of entire move Spy 110-112?
Perhaps Monday tells the tale
thanks for your insight and blog
Red, thanks for your insights (and terrific pictures!!!).
I think today's sharp bounce was a trap for bulls. Some market observers felt that late day bounce was a short covering rally. I tend to think too many people following EW and moving markets up and down in anticipation of different waves.