That is true, but the market has been so heavily manipulated that a person can get killed on the whipsaw action, if their not quick to get out. I'm looking to play individual stocks only for now.
Once the February high is in, I'll go back into the SPY. I'm looking at IBM for a short canidate now. I'd like to see it get up to 133.50 on Tuesday, and then I'm thinking about short it with a 130/135 call credit spread.
Since the earnings are coming out after the bell, the calls are inflated in value now, and will go back down after the earnings are released. So, even if the stock goes up a little, the calls will be worth less.
I think IBM will sell off after earnings, as it is at a multi-year high right now. It's above the 1999 high and right at the 2000 high… which is the highest it's been this decade.
There was an intra-month high around 139, but I don't see it reaching there. The 133.50 is the 2000 high, and that should stop any further advance.
Amazon is another one I'm looking at, but I'd like to see it go back up some first.
A low risk play would be to buy Feb 114 puts at 1142 with a stop at 1144. With Feb options, the risk to reward is good if we drop to 1115. If we go above 1142 and the stop loss is hit, we may lose 3% on the puts. On the other hand, if we indeed drop to 1115, the return on Feb 114 puts will be 40-50%. In summary, the risk is 3% and the reward is 40-50%.
I think we go down to 1115 level and back up to 1160-1180 by February. So, yeah… we're on the same page. That February date is important… trust me on that one. Regardless of how high we make it too on that date, it's a big turn date.
I am! very perceptive of you
Heres to 450 S&P then we can fix this train crash and move on
Nice post !!!
http://eclipptv.com/viewVideo.php?video_id=9493
Intersting…….
JIM Rogers on Boom in Commodities…
http://eclipptv.com/viewVideo.php?video_id=9491
Thanks
Joe
I'm pretty confident that 1130 will break. Lot's of charts rolling over now… 1115 is our target.
I have AMZN on my watch list as well. I forgot to mention that 1130 is also a key level that must be broken to reach 1115.
Thanks Crash… it's coming soon, by the way! With a name like that, I can tell you're a Bear…
That is true, but the market has been so heavily manipulated that a person can get killed on the whipsaw action, if their not quick to get out. I'm looking to play individual stocks only for now.
Once the February high is in, I'll go back into the SPY. I'm looking at IBM for a short canidate now. I'd like to see it get up to 133.50 on Tuesday, and then I'm thinking about short it with a 130/135 call credit spread.
Since the earnings are coming out after the bell, the calls are inflated in value now, and will go back down after the earnings are released. So, even if the stock goes up a little, the calls will be worth less.
I think IBM will sell off after earnings, as it is at a multi-year high right now. It's above the 1999 high and right at the 2000 high… which is the highest it's been this decade.
There was an intra-month high around 139, but I don't see it reaching there. The 133.50 is the 2000 high, and that should stop any further advance.
Amazon is another one I'm looking at, but I'd like to see it go back up some first.
thanks for that your blog is becoming a wee bit addictive !
A low risk play would be to buy Feb 114 puts at 1142 with a stop at 1144. With Feb options, the risk to reward is good if we drop to 1115. If we go above 1142 and the stop loss is hit, we may lose 3% on the puts. On the other hand, if we indeed drop to 1115, the return on Feb 114 puts will be 40-50%. In summary, the risk is 3% and the reward is 40-50%.
Yep, I have 1115 as a key level too. I have two turn dates, one on Jan 29th and the second one around Feb 12th.
Thank you.
I think we go down to 1115 level and back up to 1160-1180 by February. So, yeah… we're on the same page. That February date is important… trust me on that one. Regardless of how high we make it too on that date, it's a big turn date.