Wednesday, April 17, 2024

Still In The Rising Wedge…

The-Chart-Pattern-Trader-spy-daily-01-20-2010

Unbelievable!  The PPT (Government) managed to rally the market back up to close just inside the rising wedge once again.  But, time is running out quickly and tomorrow should be the last day in the wedge.  I think that Goldman will release good earnings and that will keep the market from falling outside the wedge.  A flat to slightly up day is what I expect.

However, I expect selling on Friday and a possible drop to 1115 spx?  Now it's possible that tomorrow Goldman might not be able to hold the market inside the wedge all day, and we could sell off into the close?  Regardless... the market is going down!  It's taking a little more time to fall then I expected when I wrote my weekend post, but we are basically still on track.

My biggest concern now is that the time line for the final top (not for the year, as I expect a summer rally) may come early?  I had it projected out at February the 9th-10th, but because Obama is going to give the "State of the Union" address next Wednesday, on January 27th, I think we might not make it until February?

The loss of the Democratic seat in the senate to the Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts could throw a monkey wrench in Obama's Health Care Plan.  Plus, the Senate only has until January 31st (a Sunday, so really only the 29th) to decide if they are going to reappoint Ben Bernanke.  Make NO mistake about it... this market is controlled, and this news events are going to affect the market tremendously!

Since Obama originally stated that he would support another term for Bernanke, it's not going to look good if the Senate doesn't agree.  I believe the main reason the market is still afloat right now is because of Obama's Health Care Bill.  If he gets that passed then he'll let the market fall.  He's trying to fool the American public with this fake rally, so he can get what he wants.

But, I don't think the death of Senator Ted Kennedy was something they were prepared for... and then losing the empty seat to a Republican!  This changes the game plan for them seriously.  We'll just have too take it one day at a time for now, but keep in mind that the huge sell off I'm looking for... could start next week!  Sorry for the change of plans, but I wasn't sure how this election issue would affect the market... and I'm still not 100% sure?  Only that things could be speeding up...

One more thing... if we do fall to 1115 by Friday, don't short the market!  I'm certain that the PPT will be buying early Monday morning to prevent any serious support levels from being broken.  They are going to keep this market up until after Obama speaks (at least that long).

Red

Red
Author: Red

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Crash Gordon
Crash Gordon
14 years ago

Superb and well considered post again thanks Red.

Why cant these blimmin politicians just leave us alone!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Crash Gordon

A bounce from the 1115 spx level is likely. Remember, the state of the union address is next Wednesday. The PPT will come in over the weekend and prop up the market… but to where is the big question?

Scraoppy
Scraoppy
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red

Where do you see us bouncing to? your best est? new highs or just retrace? we got fomc, speech and gdp next wk – they could be setting us up for blow off top?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Scraoppy

I'm going to have too wait until after tomorrow to get a better estimate. So, I'll put up my forecast for next week on my “Weekend Post” (up by late Sunday night or earlier).

It's not looking good for the Bulls though… (And that's fine with me, as I'm rootin' for the Bears!)

bill
bill
14 years ago

What happened to your “friends” target date? I thought he was 9 for 9 in last 2 years calling tops and bottoms?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  bill

I'll go over that in the “Weekend Post”, but what I'm looking at is a Wave 3 down to start around that time period. It will be bloody… that's for sure!

bill
bill
14 years ago

What happened to your “friends” target date? I thought he was 9 for 9 in last 2 years calling tops and bottoms?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

I'll go over that in the “Weekend Post”, but what I'm looking at is a Wave 3 down to start around that time period. It will be bloody… that's for sure!

Scraoppy
Scraoppy
14 years ago

Red

Where do you see us bouncing to? your best est? new highs or just retrace? we got fomc, speech and gdp next wk – they could be setting us up for blow off top?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

I'm going to have too wait until after tomorrow to get a better estimate. So, I'll put up my forecast for next week on my “Weekend Post” (up by late Sunday night or earlier).

It's not looking good for the Bulls though… (And that's fine with me, as I'm rootin' for the Bears!)

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