Saturday, April 13, 2024

The Bulls Never Quit…

Raging-Brown-Charging-Bull-Running-With-Smoke-Coming-Out-Of-His-Nose

Looks like we got our back test... only a little higher then I expected.  Regardless, I don't see it going higher tomorrow, as there are too many earnings reports coming out that should force it down.  But, here's the problem... we are still inside this rising wedge, and coming very close to the end.

Part of my forecast over the weekend is based on a breakdown of the trend line to about 1115 SPX, and then a final push higher to 1160-1180 for the back test, which would reach the conclusion of an elliottwave pattern up.  Different chartists have different levels, but they all complete somewhere in that 1160-1180 range.  The Bulls want this area badly, and they might not drop out of this rising wedge until they get it?

If the market doesn't fall to 1115, over the next few days, then I'm going to have to move the time line up from February 9th-10th, to January 27th-29th.  It's all about reaching the finally top... wherever that is?  Could 1160 or 1180, or somewhere in between?  But, once it is reached, the sell off will start.

So, if we breakdown out of the wedge before reaching the 1160-1180 level, then I'd expect a back test to occur, which should push us into the February 9th-10th turn date.  If we stay in this wedge until we hit that target level, then I believe we'll turn down early.  We'll see...

Red

Red
Author: Red

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Crash Gordon
Crash Gordon
14 years ago

Thanks for this – Still aiming for a mini drop rest of this week Red?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Crash Gordon

Yes Crash… we need the mini drop outside the wedge before we can go any higher I believe. A drop down to 1115, then back up to back test the broken trend line.

That would put us up in the 1160-1180 range next week. That's the final target I believe. I thought that it would reach the final top around February 9th-10th, but they seem to want it earlier.

Too many things are now coming to a head around January 27th-29th, which is why I now believe that we could turn early on one of those dates. It's close… that's for sure!

Crash Gordon
Crash Gordon
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Rock on! the sooner the better from where I am standing – we need an end to this fluff and nonsense and then we can build off again from some proper foundations not hot air and government speculation.

cyst em
cyst em
14 years ago

excellent analysis

the lights go out on the market on Feb. 1

my most likely scenario is very similar to yours a drop to around 1110 by friday/monday morning then a blowoff move to close next week at it's high

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  cyst em

Yes cyst em… we are running out of time. My weekend update had us turning on Febraury 9th-10th, but since they didn't make a lower high yesterday around 1140, I think they are going to push up the time line.

If we would have rose to 1140 yesterday, and then dropped to 1115 by this Friday, then we could have made a slow move back up to 1160-1180 by February 9th-10th. Now think we will be there by January 27th-29th.

Once we reach the final target, the Bulls are done! Lots of news coming out on those 3 days that could cause the start of the sell off. What closely, as I should have a better idea next week as the date draws closer.

cyst em
cyst em
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

yesterday was 1-19 and backwards it reveals a ritual numb-er

yesterday's high was 1150.45 or 11- (5) – 9

co-relational high to date

sick group of crooks running the show

the financial cyst em (system) is in its terminal phase

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago

GS to report

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  bear/bull

Well you know they made a profit… how couldn't they? They had free money to play with!

bear/bull
bear/bull
14 years ago

GS to report

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Well you know they made a profit… how couldn't they? They had free money to play with!

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