Thanks, Red. As you guessed my position is stock, so i'm not hit with the option decay. I can sit tight as long as there is no conviction to the upside action.
As I said in the post MS, I think we are going to about 1080 by Tuesday (or Wednesday at the latest). But, I think a morning dip on Monday is in order, so you might want to look for an exit point then?
You could re-enter a couple days later at a better price. Of course if it's stock etf of the under lying qqqq, then time isn't your enemy.
But, if it's an option, then you will get hurt on the reduced price because of lower volatility and time decay. Hopefully… for your sake, that's not a factor.
Interesting story to say the least… but, I don't think that the lack of bulls is going to cause this market to rally up another 100-200 points (SPX).
This is probably because of massive un-employment. People just don't have money to put in the market. I'd say that the number will remain low for quite some time.
When the market tanks over the next few weeks to months the percentage of bulls will still be low. Remember, sentiment is judged on peoples' feeling about the economy, which then relates to the stock market.
People still are broke from the first market downturn early this year. Their 401k plans are now 201k plans. On top of that, if they still have a job, their hours are reduced, and overtime pay is a thing of the past.
If you can't work enough to save any extra money, then you don't have any money to put in the stock market. Combine that with the fact that your neighbor just lost his job, and banks are handing out record bonuses from the taxpayers money… you have a lot of negative people out there.
Trust is GONE! Obama lies every time he speaks, so does Timmy boy, and Bennie… When will confidence return to the market? When all the lie's and politicians are replaced with honest people I'd guess?
Great analysis and posts, Red. I went short Wed (QQQQ at 38% retracement). As of Friday's close, it crawled past 50% and onto 62%. If it decisively closes above 62%, I will close. Otherwise, I'm sitting tight.
I follow government work. It is a big thing they write into their RFPs and the required RFP responses….how many jobs will be created by “Your Proposal Response”, and they write in laborious reporting requirements that you have to do throughout the project, draining precious management time, in order to help the Gov prove how their stimulus benefited the economy. it is like a whole new layer of bureaucracy just to prove “that it's working” and to being back confidence.
I guess in a proposal response, one should just lie about how many jobs will be created, seriously, that probably gets you more points in proposal evaluation even if it is 100% BS.
I'm glad you like the pic's of Obama… I mean a monkey. Monday's post picture should have Obama in it instead of the little boy. LOL!
Red
Love that pic you have up there. LOL It would be truly funny if it isn't so tragic.
Love Mr Topstep 🙂
Thanks, Red. As you guessed my position is stock, so i'm not hit with the option decay. I can sit tight as long as there is no conviction to the upside action.
As I said in the post MS, I think we are going to about 1080 by Tuesday (or Wednesday at the latest). But, I think a morning dip on Monday is in order, so you might want to look for an exit point then?
You could re-enter a couple days later at a better price. Of course if it's stock etf of the under lying qqqq, then time isn't your enemy.
But, if it's an option, then you will get hurt on the reduced price because of lower volatility and time decay. Hopefully… for your sake, that's not a factor.
Good Luck,
Red
Interesting story to say the least… but, I don't think that the lack of bulls is going to cause this market to rally up another 100-200 points (SPX).
This is probably because of massive un-employment. People just don't have money to put in the market. I'd say that the number will remain low for quite some time.
When the market tanks over the next few weeks to months the percentage of bulls will still be low. Remember, sentiment is judged on peoples' feeling about the economy, which then relates to the stock market.
People still are broke from the first market downturn early this year. Their 401k plans are now 201k plans. On top of that, if they still have a job, their hours are reduced, and overtime pay is a thing of the past.
If you can't work enough to save any extra money, then you don't have any money to put in the stock market. Combine that with the fact that your neighbor just lost his job, and banks are handing out record bonuses from the taxpayers money… you have a lot of negative people out there.
Trust is GONE! Obama lies every time he speaks, so does Timmy boy, and Bennie… When will confidence return to the market? When all the lie's and politicians are replaced with honest people I'd guess?
Red
Great analysis and posts, Red. I went short Wed (QQQQ at 38% retracement). As of Friday's close, it crawled past 50% and onto 62%. If it decisively closes above 62%, I will close. Otherwise, I'm sitting tight.
Leo, sentiment is a problem. What are your thoughts on this.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/contrarian-ana…
The unemployment/employment disconnect. Finally some one gets it! Nice post.
I follow government work. It is a big thing they write into their RFPs and the required RFP responses….how many jobs will be created by “Your Proposal Response”, and they write in laborious reporting requirements that you have to do throughout the project, draining precious management time, in order to help the Gov prove how their stimulus benefited the economy. it is like a whole new layer of bureaucracy just to prove “that it's working” and to being back confidence.
I guess in a proposal response, one should just lie about how many jobs will be created, seriously, that probably gets you more points in proposal evaluation even if it is 100% BS.