I say ugly….Everyone expecting some assistance has been natural. A change is about to occur. Multiple Black Swans to spread their wings. Good luck with your choices.
Yep… now the real question is whether we are done on the downside today or is this just now going to start getting ugly? Charts say we are near a short term bottom but who knows?
3 days ago I stated “VIX and markets are up and one was very wrong”…… Looks like it was Mr. Market. (as if we didn’t know who the failing party would be)
Yeah…. I went long around 11:43 am (EST) and bailed at a breakeven on the large pullback into the close. Rarely do you get that big of a rally on a Fed Day where it doesn’t hold. I expected some pullback once it closed the gap but when it rolled back down it just kept falling.
The bulls need to save around 2083-2085 SPX area as that’s about where that rising trendline is coming in at on the weekly chart (from the 2011 low). If they can’t save it… then all hell should break loose next week as the big institutions hit the sell button.
Charts are oversold short term so possibly they save it and keep us in limbo by closing right on it so we don’t know what to do. There’s an “inverted head & shoulders” pattern on the 60 minute chart with the left shoulder on 8/7 and the head on 8/11… and of course today’s low put in the right shoulder.
If it plays out then we should see a move above the prior group of highs around the 2110 zone… maybe we hit 2120 after all? But I think the pattern failed in the last rally up in the 2011 correction. So we could fail on this one too I guess?
That would imply a move up to around 2100 or so before topping and dropping to start the big correction that we bears have been waiting so long for. It could come Thursday and then roll over Friday? That certainly would be a tricky move and fool some bears.
The market looks bearish, feels bearish, but charts still tell me we are going up… probably not huge today but tomorrow we “could” rally up hard. Sounds crazy I know.. but it’s what I see in the charts. Probably best to just not take any position and watch… at least that’s what I’m going to do.
This looks like some kind of wave 3 down at the open this morning to the FP level and then back up for the wave 4 and now down again for the wave 5. Wherever this bottoms at I suspect it will happen by the 2pm FOMC meeting. Again, it’s common to sell off in fear of what the Fed’s might say and then rally in relief that nothing major was said that was viewed at too bad for the market. However, charts are still bearish right now and do not support a long (other then just day trades).
ES Futures Update: http://screencast.com/t/FLRWAcYjC4B
I say ugly….Everyone expecting some assistance has been natural. A change is about to occur. Multiple Black Swans to spread their wings. Good luck with your choices.
Yep… now the real question is whether we are done on the downside today or is this just now going to start getting ugly? Charts say we are near a short term bottom but who knows?
3 days ago I stated “VIX and markets are up and one was very wrong”…… Looks like it was Mr. Market. (as if we didn’t know who the failing party would be)
Yeah…. I went long around 11:43 am (EST) and bailed at a breakeven on the large pullback into the close. Rarely do you get that big of a rally on a Fed Day where it doesn’t hold. I expected some pullback once it closed the gap but when it rolled back down it just kept falling.
The bulls need to save around 2083-2085 SPX area as that’s about where that rising trendline is coming in at on the weekly chart (from the 2011 low). If they can’t save it… then all hell should break loose next week as the big institutions hit the sell button.
Charts are oversold short term so possibly they save it and keep us in limbo by closing right on it so we don’t know what to do. There’s an “inverted head & shoulders” pattern on the 60 minute chart with the left shoulder on 8/7 and the head on 8/11… and of course today’s low put in the right shoulder.
If it plays out then we should see a move above the prior group of highs around the 2110 zone… maybe we hit 2120 after all? But I think the pattern failed in the last rally up in the 2011 correction. So we could fail on this one too I guess?
That would imply a move up to around 2100 or so before topping and dropping to start the big correction that we bears have been waiting so long for. It could come Thursday and then roll over Friday? That certainly would be a tricky move and fool some bears.
Yes looks and feels ugly. Futures are not looking good either. Hope there is a rip up tomorrow as I have calls expiring Friday.
The market looks bearish, feels bearish, but charts still tell me we are going up… probably not huge today but tomorrow we “could” rally up hard. Sounds crazy I know.. but it’s what I see in the charts. Probably best to just not take any position and watch… at least that’s what I’m going to do.
This looks like some kind of wave 3 down at the open this morning to the FP level and then back up for the wave 4 and now down again for the wave 5. Wherever this bottoms at I suspect it will happen by the 2pm FOMC meeting. Again, it’s common to sell off in fear of what the Fed’s might say and then rally in relief that nothing major was said that was viewed at too bad for the market. However, charts are still bearish right now and do not support a long (other then just day trades).
SPX Update: http://screencast.com/t/0hfOH7vO
Possible FP on the SPY: http://screencast.com/t/X1t9pH3a