From Lindsey Williams To The Shemitah Many Signs Point To A Stock Market Crash In The Fall Of 2015

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July 29th, 2015 ... before the FOMC meeting Update

Possible New High Coming On The SPX

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrW3R1IC6kA)

I'm losing my bearishness right now as the weekly chart is getting into oversold area where "turns" usually occur. Bears beware, we could see a new high coming soon.

July 29th, 2015 ... after the FOMC meeting Update

Well, the Fed's said nothing about a rate hike at today's FOMC meeting.  So that rumor last week of a .35 rate increase in September was NOT confirmed yet.  I suspect the retail traders will view this as positive and buy the market now.  That tells me we will top out tomorrow or Friday instead.

I posted on the blog (in the comment section) the following after I did this newest video update...

"While I think we are "close" to having a breakout to a new high soon I just can't get excited about going long with the VIX so low and all those bulls still onboard from the 2040 SPX area over the last several months. If SkyNet would just flush them out with some drop to 2000-2020 I'd become a bull again.

They never filled the VIX gap at 16.60 and that leaves some hope that they might just be planing another drop to get the Weekly chart oversold and then allow for a bottom to form. All the bears would pile on below 2040 and once SkyNet gets the bus full it should be plenty of fuel to squeeze them up hard like the rip from the 1820 SPX low last year in October."

... and then this

"With the news from the FOMC today of them NOT announcing a scheduled rate hike in September as the rumor last week told us it would be .35% I have too think traders will get bullish now... and that should mean the opposite will happen and we'll drop again."

Finally I posted this...

"Do "NOTE" that even though the weekly chart is turning back up slightly this move up needs to happen fast... like before breaking that rising trendline on the weekly chart. If for some reason we break that support (that goes back to the 1074 SPX low in 2011) we could fall off a cliff and bury the MACD's, Histogram Bars, and Stochastic's on both the daily and weekly chart."

My thoughts are simple... we are at a critical conjunction where the weekly chart can take us up to new highs with 2200 area being a real target zone, OR we can break the rising trendline of support from the 1074 SPX low in 2011 and drop like a rock.  I just don't know which one yet?

However, with the VIX still very low and near the long time support zone of 12 or so I don't see the bulls having the strength to power on up through the current overhead resistance right now.  That leads me to believe we are still in this choppy zone until either the downside 2040 SPX support zone breaks (and breaks the weekly support trendline) or takes out the 2135 all time high.

With that support trendline rising in price level every week now (it looks to be around 2080 now) this "zone" we are in will likely break one direction or the other this week or next week.  If we close below that 2080 area this week then next week could be an "all down week" as mutual funds and hedge funds hit the "SELL" button due to the long time weekly support line breaking.  Remember, "computer trading" looks for certain levels to hold or break and once one occurs BIG moves in one direction or the other just happens automatically.  Humans aren't doing but about 30-40% of trading now as "algo's" make up 60-70% of all trading according to many estimates.

CHART:

http://screencast.com/t/irYp5kMK3QU

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... But Will It Be Accurate?

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RbAJz5nzLE)

As we all know the Elite that run the world 100% control the "Main Stream Media" (MSM) and constantly mislead the sheep that watch TV, read the newspaper or listen to the radio.  But what about the Internet?  Do they control it fully too?  NO is the answer as we sheep have the opportunity to publish our own thoughts on blogs like this or various social media outlets.  However don't just assume that "they" are still busy spreading their "dis-information" stories throughout the Internet to dis-credit true and factual information as I'm 100% positive they are do that every day.

Remember, their entire "motto" of life is to do everything in their power to steal from you, poison you, lie to you, use you, and kill you off when you are no longer a profitable debt slave.  So you should NEVER assume that even though they are bound to tell in advance of the things they plan to do to you that they will do it in a timely manner where you can profit from it... as the opposite is true.

While I think Lindsey Williams is probably a very good man and truly wants to help people I also think his elite source gives him information that is timed to benefit the elite by "suggesting" though his leaked messages that us sheep go long gold near the top, short the dollar near the bottom and of course miss the entire move down recently in oil.

Without a doubt if you traded from his information you would go broke!

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtN5QqH6LLM)

Of course he clearly doesn't tell you to trade from what he tells you but we all know that people will still listen to his stories and base their trading around the trend that they expect to happen from his information.  This would again result in losing you money as every thing he's told us over the last 5+ years hasn't been correct.  The dollar hasn't crashed, gold hasn't went up strongly and oil... well he claims his elite contacts never caused the sharp move down as that was apparently all done by Obama trying to push Russia president Putin.

Well, regardless of whether or not the elite crashed oil or Obama we sheep never seen it coming and didn't profit from it... so the facts are still the same, "You can't trade off Lindsey's information (unless you do the opposite?)", as it's clearly been wrong since I've started to follow him.  That's been 5-7 years now I guess.

Since I wasn't following him when he claims to have successfully told everyone in advance of the 2004-2008 big move up in oil and the fall back down hard into the 2009 low I can't know if that was timed out where the sheep could have profited from his information or not?  I only know that since I've known about him his information has been wrong.

So how do you use this information if it's timed to get the sheep into the stock market on the wrong side when the prediction is expected to happen?

Simple really... you assume we'll be bottoming when this September, 2015 Stock Market Crash is forecasted and looking for a shorting opportunity several months in advance of it.  When I look back at the 2011 mini-crash I notice that we had the most powerful crash wave (the wave 3 down) in August and then we had 1-2 months of a wild and crazy wave 4 up before the final wave 5 down to 1074 SPX early October low.

Clearly it was very tough to make any money on the wave 5 down as you would have be shaken out many times as the wave 4 up had so many ups and downs in it that most bears would have be puking their guts out from week to week waiting on that final leg down.  The big money (and safer wave to ride) was being short from late July, 2011 into the early August low for the wave 3 down.  This is the wave I personally want to catch (if possible?) and just pass on the expected wild ups and downs in September and October of 2015.

Past evidence on prior moves down is clearly shown in these charts of the DOW as explained in this video about "The Shemitah"...

I've looked a several other video's about The Shemitah and how it points to September 13th, 2015 as being the "Elul 29" and just like this one the best.  It's done by someone named James Trivette, a preacher I guess?  Anyway, I think it's well worth your time to watch.

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wu6QWOWat6Q)

"Sidenote: I looked up the solar eclipse years here... http://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/dates-of-next-lunar-and-solar-eclipses#2015"

Eclipses in 2015
March 20: Total solar eclipse
April 4: Total lunar eclipse
September 13: Partial solar eclipse
September 28: Total lunar eclipse

Eclipses in 2016
March 9: Total solar eclipse
March 23: Penumbral lunar eclipse
September 1: Annular solar eclipse
September 16: penumbral lunar eclipse

My thoughts on this forecast again of something bad happening (like a stock market crash) in or around September 13th, 2015 are that it will be a bottoming period, so we should be looking to get short much sooner.  When you ask?  We'll as most of you long time follows of this site know all about Legatus I'll point out that we have a meeting this coming June 15th-17th, 2015 and coincidentally an FOMC meeting June 16th-17th as well.

That meeting is the one that many people are expecting the Fed's to tell the market that they will be raising interest rates in September of this year.  While I don't know if they will state that news in that meeting I do believe that if they do say it we'll see a top in the market as traders will start bailing out long before the actual rate hike happens 3 months later.  So by the time September comes the bulk of the panic should be over with... which again leads me to believe it will be a bottoming period.

This also tells me that we should have another big "Wave 3" down (the crash wave) somewhere before that September 13th "Shemitah"date and/or September "Interest Rate Hike".  Past history tells us that August is a bad month for the market and if you look at 2011 you'll see that the biggest move down was indeed in August, not September.

Quite possibly we will top in mid-June and start the first waves 1 down and 2 up from there until late July where another big crash wave happens into August?  Of course it shouldn't follow the 2011 pattern exactly as that would be too easy for us sheep to figure out... and you know "they" won't make it easy for us to profit from.  If fact they will do everything in their power to make us lose all our money so they can take it from us as they profit wildly from the crash they created.

What about Legatus?

Upcoming-2015-Legatus-EventsIn that Legatus meeting I'm sure they will make the final decision on whether or not the "Stock Market Crash" is still on for 2015 or if they are going to push it out one more year into 2016.  I don't know the answer of course but I do believe without a doubt that it will happen before Obama leaves office as they want to blame this whole crash on him.  He will be the "scapegoat" for the coming collapse even though it was planned many decades ago.

These elite are just a bunch of crust old white vampires that will get a kick out of setting up the first black gay American president... which is why they put him in office in the first place I'm sure.  I kind of feel sorry for him in some ways as it's not his fault for what's coming.  But they seem to have NO Feeling at all of compassion for other humans and will do whatever it takes to fulfill their sick agenda.

I can't tell you the exact date of the top or the bottom (assuming the crash still happens) as I'm sure that any date I put out there will (could?) be off simply because I said it would happen.  I'm just saying that if too many people (sheep only, as the elite know the date) discover the exact day the market will top then they will be forced to change it.

I remember back in 2013 when I did several posts saying that we'd top on May 22nd, 2013 because it was right in the middle of a Legatus meeting and a ritual "33" day (http://reddragonleo.com/2013/05/06/we-are-just-weeks-away-from-the-start-of-a-200-or-more-point-drop-in-the-spx).  I told everyone about it for 2-3 months prior to it happening.  I thought it would be the top for the year, and we'd crash from there into a low later that year.  While it did top out and drop from 1687 SPX to 1560 by June 24th it wasn't the high of the year, nor was it a crash.

I don't know if they plans were changed or not (due to the fact that there could have been too many sheep aware of the date after I posted it?), but I've changed a lot since then in my charting analysis and simply post what I think is possible, but give NO promises of "it will be the top" or "we must crash"... as I now know how quickly "they" can change the plans to make us blog writers and stock market forecasters look like fools.

Therefore I'll just point out "possibilities" with some supporting evidence that whatever date or time frame I might a forecast for "could" be accurate.   My personal trading method today is "day trading", and I've do very well with this method over the last year or so... much more profitable then trying to forecast which direction the market will be going at a week or two from now.

This is one of the main reasons I don't post as much anymore.  The other reasons are that the better I get at day trading the less information I can find out there to post on that will be correct in the near future.  There just isn't enough "darkside information" available that is accurate.  Ritual numbers and ritual dates are too abundant to call everyone of them and expect a turn in the market.

So I just do my best to post comments on whatever the current blog post is, which are there to inform everyone of what I see short term for the market.  Then I re-post via my twitter account.  Sometimes (if I remember?) I post it on my facebook account too.

Why is Walmart closing stores around the county claims plumbing problems and then NOT filing for a plumbing permit?

There's a lot of posts around the internet talking about the mysterious closings of all these Walmart stores for some plumbing problems and then blacking out all their store windows and hiring police officers (not security guards as most stores would) to guard the place.  Then on top of that are all these military vehicles being spotted going to these stores.  Are they planning on marshall law in the near future to put the sheep in?  If so, what event would cause this?

Walmart Closing Five Stores For 'Plumbing Problems'

http://crooksandliars.com/2015/04/walmart-closing-five-stores-plumbing

Military vehicles are being shipped to a closed Texas Walmart ahead of Jade Helm? (Photos)

https://www.intellihub.com/confirmed-military-vehicles-are-being-shipped-to-a-closed-texas-walmart-ahead-of-jade-helm-photos/

I know we've seen of a lot this stuff before in the past and nothing ever became of it (at least in the "stock market crash" forecasting), but it's still worth knowing about as at some point in the future I'm sure they will do something bad to us sheep so they can put these Walmart stores to use locking up certain people that go crazy when the economy collapses and they have no job, no home, and no food to eat.

Whether all this happens in late 2015 or they push it out until 2016 is unknown, but I firmly believe it will start before Obama leaves office.  If the Fed's decide to announce the future interest rate hike in September, 2015 during this coming June 16th-17th FOMC meeting then we should all expect it to start this year.  If not, then possibly they decide to push it out one more year?

However, I certainly get the feeling that it will start this year... bottom in Sept/Oct and rally up into 2016 before they pull the rug out completely and slaughter this fat pig of a market.  Let's face it... the monthly chart of the SPX looks eerily similar to the 2011 period before a nasty mini-crash happened.

What about any FP's? (fake prints)

I don't have any new ones (on the large scale) but I'm still thinking this old one from January 2014 "could" still be in play.  It's one showing the NYA at 11334.65 high.

nyse daily intra1 jan7

There's also the old TVIX FP showing 35.9599 from 11/14/2013...

TVIX FP

So not much to say on that subject.  Those prints could both be nothing as they are old and plans could have changed from then to now.  But I wanted to include them should the market put in a top in mid-June and start crashing into September as they could be targets?

I'm still not sure all the pieces are in place for the total collapse though as the ECB is still supporting their markets in Europe with their version of Quantitative Easing and isn't scheduled to end until September of 2016 (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2015/html/pr150122_1.en.html).  But, that doesn't mean we can't get started this year here in America and have the first larger "Wave 1" down, followed by a mufti-month "Wave 2" up into mid-2016.  Then the "Super Crash Wave 3" down into the end of 2016 and probably some of 2017 could happen.

S&P 500 Monthly 2015-06-02

In both the 2000 and 2007 tops and crashes that followed we had a month chart that produced a wave 1 down and wave 2 up before their wave 3 "crash wave" down happen... therefore we should expect something similar to happen this time around as well.  That gives us a strong possibility that it will indeed start in 2015 but get worse in 2016.  So let's keep our minds sharp and open to the fact that we do have some very good odds of a major turn down this year.

Final Clues: Has the elite already warned us of "The Crash Date"?

matrix-passportAs we go back to September of 2001 we remember the both the movie called "The Matrix", TV show called "The Lone Gunmen" and the famous episode of "The Simpsons" where we were told in advance of something BIG happening on 9/11.  In the matrix it was shown on Neo's expiration date that said 9/11/2001.  On the lone gunmen episode it was a hijacked plane that was on a collision course for the twin towers, and finally on the Simpsons it was the cover of a flyer that showed the twin towers in the background with a big $9 to the left of it for the cost of the pamphlet.

simpson-9-11-cover-episodeNo one but the insiders knew what that all meant as I seriously doubt it if there was one "red pill taker" sheep that seen all three (or just one or two) of those messages and figured out the meaning before it happened.  If so, he or she certainly didn't post it on the internet for all to see (not that many would have seen it anyway as youtube wasn't around back then).

So I'm not going to tell you what I've seen that points to another date of something really bad happening but instead tell you to think like the matrix and go watch a movie called "Lucy" with Scarlett Johansson and you'll see the date I think we're going to crash.  Enough said...

Red

P.S.  Interesting how VERY BEARISH the week after the June 15th-17th is, which is based on prior history.

June-Calendar-2015

Just more evidence of a very important week starting June 15th and ending on "Triple Witching" Friday the 19th...

 

579 COMMENTS

  1. If something doesn’t happen tomorrow or possibly Friday, then I don’t know when it will occur. 6-4 of course has the best hits. ie 10(5-5), 79,64+15 ie SP low of 666.79, 24 or 12-12 or 33 ie 212 or 23.

    Then there’s the Black Dahlia hit, 68 (14)years 140 days from the BD event or 68 (14) 4months 20 days later on 1-15-47 or 711 or 25-11…tomorrow is also 10-15 or 25. Also 1441 weeks 3 days from the lesser grand ritual.

    Yesterday was the 37th full moon since the grand reunion and it basically opposed Mercury and Mars. This evening it moved into Capricorn where it will join the loose grand cross. The Zodiac symbol of the BD Avenger appears to be a grand cross on the Zodiac. Of course, we have already passed the pure grand crosses but maybe the 37th moon has special Mayan meaning. I have read in the past that 37 is a special Mayan number.

    6 years 4 months 27(ie 117 or 14)days from the original Tebow 316 game and 3years 4-27 (779) from the 2012 version.

    Plenty more stuff as well but we’ll wait and see.

  2. It’s 24 Aug 2015 on Lucy’s passport expiration BTW. Just passsing down the knowwwllleedge.

    • Good to see some people doing their homework. Just don’t spread it around please as of right now there next to nothing on the internet or youtube about it.

      • I also found some article about Lucy where the guy thinks it’s about Lucifer. He points out how she cares less about individual humans the smarter she gets(shoots the one cab driver for hesitating etc) and portrays almost all the humans except the scientists as really stupid or outright evil etc. Apparently the Illuminati like to make crazy movies with odd symbology.(Shrug, more likely some weird rich guy paid for it for amusement / director just weird or wanted to stir stuff up) The director did say it was 10 years in the making… also it is a pretty weird coincidence both movies happened to have figures that turned from normal human into God(At least the first Matrix alone) via technology.

        • It certainly has a hidden mean in the movie for sure… what the message really is… I guess that’s anyone’s interpretation? But when you add new TV shows like the one coming out called “Humans” I do think the bulk of the message is that we (they) plan on making some major upgrades to our (their) bodies with technology.

          • Well it’s definitely the next stage of human evolution, using our minds to exponentially evolve faster than the usual natural selection. With gene manipulation, stem cell research, greater understanding of beneficial bacteria, nanotech, and the apparently exponential growth “Internet of Things” will lend to the development of pretty much anything, the future is going to get interesting both in what’s going to be made and how the world’s going to deal with humans living to like 200 or heck, immortality could be practically around the corner for the richest. Of course, the poorest will never get close to this treatment, and it very well may be performed in secret years before anyone knows… not as a conspiracy, if I was that rich and getting something like that done, I wouldn’t want anyone to know… jealousy, fear etc.

            Sadly, I can almost see why things would have to get a little more controlled with stronger tech, and there’s probably going to be some real social disruption brewing… lots of people are still violent beings and there’s too much money to be made off that. I just hope I can make enough money on the downturn before things really go bad and move to Singapore. 🙂

          • Yeah Bruce we normal humans (the poor one’s) won’t likely see (or have
            the availability to get access too…) any technology that will extend
            our lives to 200+ years. But it does talk about a 1,000 year millennium
            in the Bible, so possibly the generation after us will benefit from it?

            My thoughts are that we won’t make that higher high in June but will have
            one last “higher high” in July sometime. Someone posted this on Twitter and I have to agree that I think we’ll see the high for the year in July, not June.

            “SPX Since 1950 June has never been the high for the year and this year is typical behavior… Late June/July more likely for summer rally.”

  3. OK, rented and just watched movie…..Didn’t see hidden clues other then maybe near end when Morgan F. says Too much power could destroy civilization but we already know that. Will try again & pay less attention to movie and watch background things!

  4. Futures look like they have more room to go down today. So I don’t expect this to turn positive and rally. Some bounce… yes, but odds say we close down today. Then early next week back up again.

      • The capital of America is currently what?
        … Washington, D.C. right?
        The capital of America when George Washington was president was what?
        … New York City is the correct answer.

        Neo’s passport shows what city?
        9/11 happened in what cities?

        Lucy’s Passport shows what state?

  5. 16767 days tomorrow (6-16) from the moon landing.

    GO SLOW on Haight!!!!!! The Summer of LOVE is set to begin…..The Summer of ’42.

    BDA and his cult set up shop in Frisco in ’67 to warp the minds of the incoming and blossoming flower children.

  6. Let’s see if LeBron and his CAVS get eliminated tonight. Kevin LOVE, #42, once again injured and missing the CAVS playoff run. In his place, the Aussie has been receiving a lot of the spotlight, media attention. LOVE does have the Beach Boys connection…..GO SLOW on Sunset Blvd.!!!!! He looks like he could be part of the BDA cult.

    I did recently notice that SMOKY from the Big Lebowski wears a CAVS bowling shirt. SMOKY who has a problem going OVER THE LINE. “Smoky this isn’t NAM. There are rules here.”

    Anyway, tomorrow is 7-7 ie 711 but I am not too sure if anything will materialize. A component of a certain little indicator is just bouncing around in minor negative territory. Might have to wait another week. But if there is hard turn down tomorrow might have to look at the LeBron #s.

      • Oops Love is now #0 with CAVS. #2 was born in Australia interestingly enough and has almost the identical birthday to LOVE though 0 is a couple of years older.
        #2 is 1212 weeks 2 days old tomorrow.

  7. Someone I know gave me a statistic about Wednesday’s that he backtested to the 1980’s. The stat’s are that any Wednesday of any given week only put in the high or low for that week just 7% of the time. The other 93% of the time the high or low was put in on Monday/Tuesday or Thursday/Friday.

    His theory was that most of the time Wednesday’s are a “continuation” day. Meaning that whatever direction the market starts on Monday/Tuesday it goes through Wednesday and concludes on Thursday/Friday. Since we have put in a higher high today then Monday or Tuesday this suggests that Thursday (or Friday) should put in a higher high then today.

    While that higher high could be just a penny or 10 points higher this does make me a little hesitate to short today into the close. The Fed’s also don’t like to be the blame for everything they created and caused. They want to be the hero for all the bad things that happen to us sheep.

    Of course anyone with half a brain should figure it at that ALL wars are created for profit that allow the gangsters in the White House to act like Hero’s out to save us sheep from some big bad wolf in the middle east or wherever. The reality is that “they” are the big bad wolf and it’s all an illusion.

    So we should expect the Fed’s to ACT like they are interested in our best interest in determining on “when” to raise interest rates. Naturally they will say it’s not their fault and they had to do it to save us sheep. We know it’s done to save their bankster buddies. Anyway, point being is that I find the market usually turns 1-2 days after a Fed meeting and NOT the day of the meeting.

    • I see the slopping down trend line on the SPY @ 215 area!
      So I would guess they push it to that, then watch if we reverse or break above it

    • tell how more of a squeeze because flatlines @11am…then 12noon, game playing again to squeeze on low volume for the lunch hour…but no continue on last 30 minutes. Options x week is always games w/news tricks

      • Yeah, I really only expecting about 2110 SPX or so (+/- 2-3 points). This was a much bigger squeeze then many people expected I’m sure. Tomorrow is a tough call as it’s option expiration (triple or quad witching), and we all know how they love to manipulate it so they don’t have to pay out the put holders.

        My thoughts are that if we open flat to up we’ll chop around early in the day and into the last hour or so we’ll sell off. Or, if we gap down they will find an early morning low and bounce it back up into the close to retrace most of the move down.

        So on a move up I’ll look to short (again) into next week (actually I have some June 30th puts, so I’ll get more of those to bring down the cost). If we gap down I’ll look to bail out on my current puts and wait for a rally the rest of the day to decide on whether or not I’ll go short over the weekend.

        I’ll probably wait as even though next week is a very bearish week there’s always bounces to get short at. So getting in on a Friday and chancing a gap down on Monday really isn’t worth the time decay in my opinion.

        The short term charts going into the close today are very, very overbought. So if you are trapped short from today I think they’ll be a decent pullback tomorrow at some point to bail out at a smaller loss (depending on what you bought and when of course).

        • Short wise, didn’t short anything, did buy back VXX today.
          Will hold into next week, want to hold longer if possible or looks correct for longer hold!
          As more trouble happens in Europe tho, I see more of their money will keep moving over into our markets as their markets are on thin ice!

          One thing that makes me ???? a nice correction is that too many lately again calling for one! Telling me they WANT ONE because they know & can buy for a big leg up later to come!
          Short term False Crash is possible, but hard to nail just yet!

          • Yeah… I personally think that even if we drop to below that 2040 SPX zone to take out all the bulls’ sell stops that have been long from those multiple hits over the last several months they will stop and reverse back up into mid to late July to make a new all time high again.

            I do think they will get up there near 2200 (+/-some) before a final top for this year is seen. Then down in August, and hopefully not the false flag event… but just a nice correction.

          • I know you follow charts,
            FYI, I’m changing to follow more World Wide happenings, games played and using trend lines w/support & resistance.
            Look at this chart and can see how they GAP over trendline Monday to shake Long options, then today GAP back over to shake Puts out.

    • SOOO many angles.
      Hard to figure how to trade off it. Been trying to set up for A CRASH which failed to happen so many times.
      FYI, had info this week on local stuff that got me scared…HATE hearing local stuff.

      • Yeah, it’s tough. I’ve been there too many times in the past where I traded off news and lost my butt. Now I just day trade and don’t worry so much about trying to catch “The Big Crash”. But I’m still very aware that one is coming.

        Whether it’s this Fall or not I don’t know? I’m not as confident on a crash this fall but next June to December of 2016 I’m very, very confident that we’ll start a big crash in that period.

  8. We are VERY, VERY overbought right and every time frame is rolling over. Only the extremely light volume seems to be holding it back from collapsing. We “should” tank Tuesday, but…

    They could get the futures oversold by tomorrow morning to keep the down move limited, as then the futures will try to push the market up while the SPX cash will try to go down. Meaning the actual price level won’t have the mojo to drop 20+ points like it really should and instead just fall 5-10 points… and probably chop most of the day while it trys to go back up.

    We all know too well how they manipulate the charts to prevent big drops. So while my analysis suggests we’ll drop 20+ points over the next day or I won’t rule out some trickery here until this Greece crap passes. Greece is the wildcard and it can be used to produce some fake out spike up, so I’m cautious here. It just “feels” like they aren’t going to let it drop much regardless of what the charts say.

    • once AGAIN…NO FEAR in the markets!
      $VIX, $VXV….So VXX has falling!
      What else can ya say 🙁

        • Ya, the one thing….SPY 2 days LOW volume and guessing squeezed a lot of the shorts out is that. As High volume would of shown new longs entering also!…Still no fear again tho!…..Do I believe?

          • Low volume is common for the summer time but also is a sign that there are very few “new longs” coming into the market at these levels. Of course there’s no fear until the market starts to sell off.

            But my reasons for thinking tomorrow will be down have nothing to do with those factors and instead are just based on seasonality of this week being bearish, SPY up at double top zone, and most importantly a VERY Overbought chart.

            The 60 minute, 2 hour, and 4 hour charts are overbought on both the futures and the cash for the S&P500 and the weakness today just smelled rotten for any breakout tomorrow. So a little bit of “gut feeling” in there but the charts really say “I’m overbought and ready to fall now”.

    • “…they are determined to make a new high on the SPX and DOW
      as the Nasdaq and Russell already have.”

      … their real concern should be the Transports!

  9. Downside could be limited today as the futures act like they want to turn back up on the 60 minute chart. The 2 hour could go either way and the 4 hour is still pointing down, which should keep some downward pressure on the 60 minute chart. The SPX cash is still overbought on it’s 60 minute chart and acts like it wants to turn back up too.

    But considering how high up the MACD’s are at on that chart I just don’t see a big rally from these levels. I can only think that today might not be that much of a down day. Thursday is yet to be known as we need to see how today closes first.

    • The longer the market chops around sideways today the less likely we’ll see the move up to that falling trendline around 2112 (and going lower) on the ES Futures. We could fail to hold support later today and drop into the close if the bulls don’t make a move soon. I’m personally on the sidelines today as I now see now clear direction.

  10. Today is 25000 days from the BD event.

    Check out the early evening skies as Quetzi approaches Jupiter for the inevitable union.

    • It looks like the point of no return for Greece. Their lifeline will be yanked referendum or no referendum.

      Monday is 6-29 or the 611 from the Simpson’s clock but I don’t believe that is when we’ll see denouement materialize. There is an even more clever disguised 6-11 coming up with all of the requisite astrology included.

      • Yes we needed Mars to enter Cancer before anything could materialize thus the markets were in limbo for a week and got the inevitable bounce based on a “positive turn in Euro-Greece negotiations” as the operators continued their game of whipsaw with the markets.

        Russell 2000 and IBB did pop above the upper BBs earlier in the week putting in a doji top above them on Tuesday which is a pretty reliable topping pattern.

  11. Greece – Banks and Stock Market closed on Monday. We will open -500 in the DOW and S&P will see 1875 this week.

  12. Red, Looks like your call of an early start to the correction( vs.the October time frame) is looking very accurate. How do you see this playing out?

    • Blew right through that premarket low… LOL. Not a good time to be a bull I think! I will NOT be going long into Thursday but will just wait it out until then before looking for a 3 week short.

      • Looking like the set up is short for 2 weeks then I believe FOMC bounce. Distribution has been ocurring all year, so who’s gonna buy at these levels? Although all are waiting (impatiently) for a bounce, we should be sitting out til massive selling occurs for better entry point and odds. GL

  13. I’m not expecting any obvious setup to show up today. After yesterday’s beautiful bear day we should have some kind of bounce, but it should be choppy. Early up moves will likely be met with some trapped bulls selling. So we could go back down some as easy as going up.

    Today is a day to just set on the sidelines and let the late to the party bears and trapped bulls fight it out. Once done though we should see a move up into Thursday. How high is unknown but if they get something positive out of Greece about a deal then I’d expect a powerful short squeeze.

    Personally I’d love to see them fake out the bulls and scream this pig up one more time to make a new high where they take out all the bears and get the bull bus fully loaded. Then drop the ball over the weekend again with the Greece deal and start the 3 week down move next Monday with all bulls trapped and no escape.

  14. I’m thinking that we could “possibly” have one more move down Wednesday and then up into Thursday to complete either then or Monday? If Monday i don’t think it will rally much higher then Thursday’s high. If we bottom today then I see Thursday as a more likely high day. Basically I think we are going up to 2 strong days and one pause day at the end of the rally.

  15. I’m not an EW person but today looks like an ABC wave 4 up, with yesterday being a large wave 3 down. This implies a 5th wave down should happen tomorrow. But again, I’m not a pro in EW counts.

    If this happens then expect the “unexpected miracle” (this happens a lot in WallStreet World) like some Greece deal to spark a big short squeeze. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t rally up to put in a new all time high of 10-15 points over 2134 SPX by Monday of next week.

    I’m NOT saying that’s going to happen but it won’t surprise me. If it happens I’ll be the only bear left around that will STILL be expecting a 3 week drop that will scare the horns off all the bulls and feed the bears for many months.

    • Got to LOL @ how things are planned… @5am this morning while I’m watching FBN, all of the sudden they come out & say: wait wait wait, an agreement letter From Greece accepting most of the bailout terms was just leaked.
      LOL, ya mistakenly LEAKED 😉

  16. Quetzi and Jupiter basically near conjunction right now while a near full moon is rising nearly opposite to them. (in a couple of days). Actually in a few hours the moon will be entering Cancer and then be joining in the Mars-sun-Rahu T square and then move on to the Pluto-Sirius opposition. All of this concurrent with a Greek default.

    Tomorrow, 7-1 will be a disguised 6-11 and a 77 as well.(7-16). GO SLOW on Cielo!!! (16763 days ago).

    Maybe, they can postpone things until the referendum over the weekend but I can’t see the Greeks voting to leave the euro. They still need to make it to the referendum while their financial lifeline has been yanked and with capital controls in place and banks closed, they have the apparatus in place for an “exit”.

    LeBron and LOVE opting out of their CAVS contracts basically 1818 days from the DECISION or 259+ weeks later. (from 7-9-10)(16-10)

    Germany eliminated from the Women’s World Cup by the US today, 52 weeks from the US’s elimination from the Men’s World Cup by the Belgians,( “IF It’s Tuesday, It Must be BELGIUM”).

  17. SPX when the low for the month occurs on the last day of the month, that low is breached in the following month 82.5% of the time… and that low is breached w/in the first 5 trading days of the new month 71.4% of the time. ($SPX results from 63 instances since 1962).

      • SPOT ON Leo
        I reloaded VXX this morning….close enough!
        They are like giving leaks like every 15 minutes now, I smell DESPERATION!

        • Odds still point to Thursday being another up day… even if it’s only a small up? Possibly they breakthrough that falling trendline I posted earlier and hit the next trendline above it around 2085 area, but I don’t see much past that.

          Considering that they will vote again this coming Sunday odds favor a bad outcome and therefore another down Monday to start the week off on the bear foot for once.

  18. Just had the full moon in the middle of the Sun-Mars-Rahu T square. Mars will be moving into a square with Rahu and the moon moves onto the opposition to Sirius and square to Uranus over the next day. Tomorrow is 260 weeks from the DECISION as LeBron struggles to reup with the CAVS. LOVE signs with the Cavs, a 5-11, 5years for 110 million.

    Tomorrow features the heavy hitting astro. Next week has the numerology. Might need to wait for the moon to enter Aries for a purer grand cross.

    • If you can’t see the chart because it’s too small you can hold down the control key (ctrl) and press the plus key (+) at the same time and it will increase the screen size. Just keep hitting “ctrl +” to increase larger until you can see it good.

      • NICE
        also shows how long this 2009 run has been extended to extreme!
        AND the final rise without pullback matches length from previous

  19. I can’t see the Greeks voting to turn their country into Venezuela especially since they are already experiencing a Venezuelan moment. The operators will probably supply some plot twist after the euphoric after-effects of a pro Euro vote has run its course although Monday is a potential GO Slow date and a Fahrenheit 415 one as well.

    • Greece will not pay. Germany and IMF took the risk to lend Greece when they joined the EU back in 2002. The IMF decided the risk is worth the lending at 5% since if Greece default then Germany will have to repay the debt. We are blaming the Greeks for their problems where in fact is the IMF and their corrupted banking system that caused this event. Also, if a bank fails then the people via taxation will have to pay the bill.

      • The story is always the same… the rich corrupt assholes at the top push risks to extremes to steal the last drop of profit from whatever scheme they created and then when the risks backfire and the scheme collapses they keep all the profit and pass the losses onto the public sheep.

    • From looking at the charts we could chop around with an upward bias toward 2100 SPX area for 2-3 days. The FOMC is this Wednesday which should give the market “wait and see” mode until it’s past. That means we should see our high on Thursday or Friday.

      I’m not comfortable going long here as it looks choppy and I don’t want to get scared out but there’s a falling trendline that should put us in the 2090-2100 area by the end of this week. There’s the 20EMA on the Daily SPX at 2092 and the 50EMA at 2096 to also add more resistance with the various trendlines and finally a gap fill from 6/26 at 2100.49… so I see plenty of reasons for the market to stall out in that zone later this week.

      Until then I see no safe short as we are too oversold on the short term charts now. The short was missed as it happened when the market was closed over the weekend with the Greece vote. This is common as we all know too well that they don’t want us sheep to be able to profit from any move down. So they make you gamble on taking a 3 day long weekend short not knowing what the vote outcome was going to be (of course they knew the outcome).

  20. Market looks weak this morning. They might have used up all their bull juice last night after hours? Still could go up but not a strong as I seen in the charts yesterday. Better to watch for now.

    • Amazing how bullish the ES Futures where yesterday and now they are all just as bearish. Only the SPX Cash is holding back a very large drop. It wants to go up from oversold conditions but the futures are really pushing down hard right now.

  21. Looks like the bullish setup I seen yesterday used up all it’s juice in the afterhours and premarket session and actually got overbought by the open… LOL! I’m so used to “them” screwing the bears by taking an overbought chart (on the futures) and getting it oversold the next morning to prevent a drop in the SPX Cash that it fooled me.

    Too many times in the past the SPX Cash would get very overbought and look like it was ready to drop hard the next day but “they” would used the ES Futures to prevent the drop. It was common policy to drive the overbought futures into oversold territory afterhours that by the open the next day it didn’t have anymore room down to go.

    Then they would fight each other as the SPX wanted to drop while the Futures wanted to go up. In the end you’d have a choppy day that frustrated the bears because it wouldn’t tank big and got the bulls angry too as it wouldn’t go up huge either. But it looks like that old pattern is now reversing.

    Now I see choppy Wednesday and a flush out move on Thursday. Then chop on Friday to trick the bulls and the bears with “indecision”. Historically next week should be a bullish week since it’s option expiration week. However, if we close this week with a break of the rising trendline of support from 2011 I think we’ll drop hard next week and fool all the bulls.

    http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/312846787

    A closing break of that blue trendline should trigger hedge funds and mutual funds to hit the “sell” button in my opinion. So past “bullish option expiration” stat’s won’t likely hold up this go around. If they hold that line then “possibly” the low this week will end it? But the monthly chart suggests more downside is still coming and that weekly chart doesn’t look bottomed to me yet.

    • Famous Whipsaw Wednesday that happens during options X week is just like this day. They going to trick trick trick to suck as much possible $$$ out of traders as the Time Factor works to finally show direction!

      • Yes, very tricky right now. And how convenient is it that stockcharts was down yesterday for several hours and today some of Ameritrades charts aren’t working.

  22. Finally got the up I seen in the Futures yesterday. But it should looked ugly this morning. Now I guess we are going up toward that 2090-2100 SPX zone as I previously thought.

    Eurozone leaders are locked in an emergency summit tonight that will, most likely, determine Greece’s future in the eurozone… so you can blame this rally on that I guess? Funny how well timed all this news is… LOL.

    Of course if nothing good comes out of it then down we go again…

  23. I didn’t think they would gap the market down two weekends in a row. They filled the gap pretty quickly and by the close today the SP was at last Thursday’s levels. Meanwhile, a certain little indicator, the Nasdaq version, keeps on getting more negative even with today’s rally and decent action last Thursday, playing catchup to the NYSE version which coincidentally rallied up to near its 0 line today. I thought they would the hold the market up until the moon entered Aries which it has now done and coincidentally we are seeing meltdowns in the market(across all continents). The plot twist they used was to get the market with the news that the Greek Finance minister/ actor was resigning.

    • The Greeks voted for their own demise. I guess it’s easy technically to vote against austerity when you don’t look at the consequences and a huge percentage of the gullible youth were behind the NO vote.

      They are about to be paid in IOUS which will instantly be worth 50% less than their face value. Capital controls mean businesses can’t be extended any credit for purchasing supplies and foreign suppliers have cut off business with Greek entities. Their pensions that the Syriza party is so “adamantly” fighting for will be eviscerated in the swift devaluation.

      This looks like the blueprint straight out of 1917-1920 Russia but it’s hard to feel sorry for the Greeks after seeing them dancing on the streets after their momentous NO vote. This is all staged anyway.

  24. There’s a new TV series out called “Mr. Robot” on AMC network that looks too me like they are planting a seed in the sheep’s mind that a bunch of young rebel hackers have the power to bring down the financial system like in the 2008 crash… only worst.

    They already did 2 episodes and a new one airs this Wednesday. I’ll be watching closely to see if they put out any dates on billboards in the background, license plates, TV’s playing, or who knows… another passport?

    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4158110/

  25. I don’t get the feeling it’s going to breakdown for the “Big Move” this week but one should get short before this week ends and hold it short for about 3 weeks. I see a huge drop starting next week. It will make this weeks’ drop look like nothing.

    Hopefully we get a bounce after the FOMC meeting today at 2pm EST. We are now making an “Inverted Head and Shoulders” with today’s move down to make the right shoulder. While the charts are still very bearish I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t get one more fakeout move up after something positive from the Fed’s (like NO interest rate increase this September).

    It’s hard to read the charts right now as it’s clear that SkyNet is shaking both bulls and bears before the next big move down. They want bulls trapped and bears scared to short. So another move up should scared out the bears and get the bulls back on board the bus again.

    No guarantee of this move up of course but if I were SkyNet I’d do one more fakeout. Look at 10/03/2014 and 10/08/2014 to see how they had two big tricky rallies before the did the real drop that started the 5 days straight down from 1967 SPX to the 1820 low.

    • I use to CRACK up at that video..then they ereased it on You-tube…NICE find for a good LOL

  26. Legatus updates their website with a new look… http://legatus.org You really have to search around the new site to find the coming events, but the direct link is: http://legatus.org/event

    Notice the 2nd one down is set for this August 28th through September 4th, 2015? That’s just a few days after my “possible false flag” date that you’ll find in the Lucy movie. So is that meeting a bottoming zone? Makes sense too me to bottom right before the well known news concerning the fear for this September.

      • I think we will go down first to retest the 1820 SPX prior low and probably bounce there. Don’t know if that will be the end of the first wave or not but it could be… makes sense actually. If it hits by the end of July then we should bounce back up into the middle of August and then we should see the next big wave down into early September. That one should be in the 1700 area on the SPX.

        Then we could have some wild up and down moves until the end of September for the wave 4 up and finally a flush down to retest the 2000 and 2007 highs around 1576 SPX area for the final wave 5 down. After that it’s up, up and away the rest of the year. That’s what makes the most sense from a technical point of view.

  27. They need to close the SPX at or above 2060 this Friday to save the rising trendline from the 2011 low on the weekly chart. So I’m expecting some kind of ABC or 5 wave pattern today and tomorrow with the market saving that level by the close.

    Therefore anything over that level up to 2085 area appears to be a good short. Of course if they some how close that gap down from 6/29 (around 2100 SPX) then they could turn the market back up. But odds are low that they will be able to succeed there with such huge downward pressure from the monthly and weekly charts.

  28. The market is going up nicely afterhours now from some positive Greece news. This is the final squeeze up I think. If they don’t fill the gap around 2100 area and just run out of steam in the 2080-2090 SPX area then I think it’s a short over the weekend. That “could” be the plan? Something positive about Greece on Friday and then change it back to something negative on Sunday when the market is closed.

    However, if the Sunday meeting is canceled and this Friday agreement is the last meeting needed then they will probably turn this rally into a multi-day event to close the 2100 gap and go up even higher into a Tuesday-Thursday top next week. Don’t know which yet? Just have to see what happens Friday first. But this is the bear squeeze I wanted to see happen first before any 3 week drop starts.

    • Perfectly timed news, when all the bears are trapped short! I used too fall for this years ago but I smelled it today and didn’t take any position today. Like I previously said, when this rally ends I see a 3 week decline starting like the July 22nd to August 8th of 2011 period.

      Ahh… the market is just like a TV show with typical “perfect timed” scary moments, walk in and catch someone cheating, ..and the winner is (commercial break), slap stick stupid jokes, and of course the brief nudity scenes. Who’s directing this show I wonder… Steven Spielberg, George Lucas, Stanley Kubrick, Robert Zemeckis, or James Cameron? Feels more like a Quentin Tarantino show with all the blood from the bulls recently and bears blood bath Friday.

      • If it’s directed by Quentin Tarantino, then the role of the bears is played by Mickey Rourke who’s always getting the crap kicked out of him. The bull is played by Eva Green who gets pampered and taken care of by her rich husband… who of course hides his real name and is called “The Fed” like some cool mafia godfather.

  29. NOTE: IF THE 2100 GAP IS FILLED THEN THE “3 weeks down starting next week” Will Be DELAYED. I will then give that scenario 50/50 odds of starting next week at a “lower high” then the previous 2135 SPX high in May.

    If that high is taken out then we are likely going up to 2200 area before topping and rolling over. Everyone MUST BE super bullish for this huge drop to happen. If we get up to that area then I’ll probably then increase the odds to 80/20 for the drop to start. At that point it should be late July or early August.

    We all know what “could be” planed for late August. So again, “if” we have a new blow off top then August will be the BIG drop period. It’s all unconfirmed as of today but I want everyone be on the look out for what might happen. Remember, SkyNet is Artificial Intelligence and it knows there are too many bears out right now. It has to put them to sleep before the big drop.

  30. So far this rally hasn’t broken the bearish momentum as there’s still no gap fill and the Greece news is out now, so unless they can drum up some other big news event I just don’t see what’s going to push the market up much more?

    If this is all the bulls have then I don’t see any change in the forecast of a big move down coming starting next week. If some how they can rally up to close that gap around 2100 SPX then I’ll have to re-evaluate the forecast, but I just can’t see any more reasons to be long right now?

    Maybe the old “bullish option expiration” week stat’s can get the rally started but it will have to be just on a technical basis that the short term charts are oversold (which they are), but the daily, weekly and monthly show no signs of bottoming yet and turning back up.

    All in all it looks like SkyNet is doing what I expected it to do by closing above that 2060 SPX area to save the rising trendline of support on the weekly chart… which leaves everyone guessing again about what’s going to happen next week.

    • I am expecting 2075-80 close today. Next week we will see 2045 one more time. It may even go lower until 3rd week of July to test 2010 level.

      • They certainly need to make it look bullish and closing at 2075-2080 sure would do it. I think they still have some final (final until they create a new deadline) meeting this Sunday about Greece, so a negative outcome there would definitely make Monday an ugly day.

  31. I am finally out of my long positions.LOL Made enough for nice meal at my favorite restaurant. Going to start nibbling at some shorts here for the Aug Sept time frame. I really do not care if the markets go up a few percentage points.

  32. I’m trying something new! Been following CFTC report for a while, but now take it further.
    Logging the Commercials futures weekly change and match them to the markets change. This is forecasting tracking and if anyone wants me to post weekly, I will!
    Last week I Called for a flat week, which we had, Volatility was high!

    Here is the start of my tracking project:

    week ending 07/09/15….(this is the weekly change)
    $DJI-flat +30
    $SPX-flat 0
    QQQ-flat -.30

    futures 07/09/15 …….( this is the % greater on the Long or Short)
    DJI- 2% short
    S&P- 5% long
    NASDAQ- 19% short
    Russel- flat

    Silver- 18% short
    copper- 63% long
    Gold- 30% short
    us oil- 50% short
    Europe oil- 8% short

    Have a GREAT weekend all!
    $Doug OUT!

  33. No Greek agreement! Market in the toilet.
    If we were to lose 2040, we’ll probably see an elevator down move to the next stop at about 2009. Under that, and we’re in a serous correction.

    Later, Crawford

  34. with future options pointing, see this week as:

    DOW- flat …..important support DIA $176.27
    S&P-flat, slight up bias……..important support SPY $204.75
    NASDAQ-medium DOWN bias, QQQ to work eventually to $104.49 support
    RUSSEL-flat…..important support IWM $123.36
    OIL- high DOWN bias, USO eventually to test double bottom $15.61
    VIX-medium to medium/high volatility
    GOLD- down bias, but slight bottoming tail last week..important resistance GLD $114.03
    SILVER-down bias, Bottom Tail last week, LOOKS ready to work move up, watch SLV
    COPPER-High up bias, Bottom tail last week, watch JJC

    Have a good week
    $Doug OUT!

  35. Finally looks like they are going to fill the gap now. It wasn’t looking like it was going to get filled on Friday. Remember that if they fill the gap the odds will greatly change on the big sell off. That gap is around 2100 SPX and even with the futures up nicely right now before the open it’s still a good hike up there.

    Short term charts are pretty extended here on the upside so bulls need to get that gap fill fast before the charts rollover and force a pullback. It’s still hard too read at this point as we haven’t broken down clearly yet (below 2040) or broken out (above 2100), so we are still in a zone of “in-decision” it appears. I’m bearish until that gap is filled, and then I’ll be neutral.

    • Trying to pinPoint a channel a little tough, but this is close as I can see.
      Putting SPY to around 212.00 area for top area of down channel

      • Gaps filled on the SPY and QQQ, but not quite on the SPX and the TVIX. Once filled the odds of a big drop starting this week are 50/50 I think. In fact they will likely change the chart setup to bullish for several weeks if this happens.

        However, there’s still likely to be a pullback this week to fill this gap up. Possibly even tomorrow? It’s “Turnaround Tuesday” so it would be a good day to pullback. Plus the charts are very overbought on the short term right now and point to a pullback tomorrow as being the most likely period.

        I think one should exit shorts on this pullback (assuming it happens) and re-evaluate. I could see 2075-2085 SPX for this pullback. I’ll check the charts again then to see if the bear case is still intact, but I get the feeling after this pullback they will have aligned the charts bullish.

        If these charts turn bullish then we are likely off to new highs in the coming weeks. I’d guess we are going toward 2200 area (+/- 25 points).

  36. Very overbought now, but we bears know they can make the pig even fatter. Gaps are filled about everywhere now (except the new one’s created today on the upside of course). It’s obviously looking good for the bulls now. Still should pullback but from what level is the question?

    If they gap up tomorrow I think it’s a small short for a pullback. If they open flat (or down) then we should rollover and pullback to that 2075-2085 area I think. But a strong gap up means a smaller pullback.

  37. Moon soon to enter Cancer joining all of the heated activity in there.

    SP rallies back to its 50 day average.

  38. So far this week looks like the week of June 27th, 2011… and we seem to be tracking that time period fairly well on a week to week basis. The exact day to day movement isn’t exact of course but overall the pattern is similar.

    So a lower high (like on July 7th, 2011) could happen again (like this Thursday of Friday) and then a drop next week, bounce back up some the last week of July and fall off a cliff starting the first week of August could be the plan?

    That was what happened back in 2011 so I could see a similar pattern happen now in the coming weeks. Of course it might not be exact as it could just drop the next 2 weeks of July like suggested in this chart I got from someone I follow on Twitter.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJ-FbzjUYAA_vB4.png:large

    If it follows that chart then it should bounce into the first 2 weeks of August and then rollover into a nasty crash wave down from there into early September. Of course we have the “possible false flag” day set in the 4th week of August which the gangsters could still make happen… and that should really make the market drop hard!

    You all know their favorite saying… “Never let a good crisis go unused” (meaning the overbought market making a well needed correction). So doing a false flag in the middle of a correction is certainly taking advantage of a (technical crisis).

  39. It might be a patriotic day tomorrow. Tomorrow is 17-7-6 in the non US dating format. Could be the reason the PATRIOTS have been winning all those Superbowls lately.
    XXXXXXX–my original post didn’t make it through.

  40. Spot VIX down to 11.77 this a.m., that’s below both the May & June lows and the lowest reading since Dec 5th (11.53). The last 4 times the VIX ticked down to this mid-high 11’s level, it marked the low in the VIX to the very day:

    09/19: 11.52
    12/05: 11.53
    05/22: 11.82
    06/23: 11.93
    Today: 11.77 so far

    In each of these 4 instances, the VIX rallied sharply over the next 2-3 weeks, to: 31.06, 25.20, 15.74 & 20.05 respectively.

    (Posted by another trader on another blog. Just thought it was worth reposting).

  41. I guess it was GOOG and nothing else today. The operators pulled a good one launching a stock with that market cap 15% in a day.
    <<>>>
    218 new lows on the NYSE today. HOs going off like crazy the last couple of days.
    <<<>>>>
    Today is the last 12 I see for awhile but plenty of still promising numerology to come plus we have some nice pattern matching fractals to historical market epochs.
    <>>>
    The ether didn’t like my BD countdowns or astro updates yesterday, I guess.

  42. week ending 07/17/15….(this is the weekly change)
    $DJI….+326, Up 1.8%
    $SPX….+50, Up 2.4%
    QQQ…. +212, Up 4.2%

    futures 07/017/15 …….( % greater on Long or Short from COMMERCIALS traders)
    DJI- 12% short….10% increase to SHORT side
    S&P- 3% long….2% decrease to LONG side
    NASDAQ- 32% short….13% increase to SHORT side * *(see note below)
    Russel- FLAT

    Silver- 20% short….2% increase to SHORT side
    copper- 52% long….11% decrease to LONG side
    Gold- 26% short….4% decrease to SHORT side
    us oil- 41% short….9% decrease to SHORT side
    VIX- 42% long….12% increase to LONG side

    ** Futures options are from The COMMERCIAL guys (they KNOW much more) there is also reports on all NON-COMMERCIAL options which are really (The Retail Investors)..
    So on the NASDAQ, I noticed N-C went from 81% LONG last week to a WHOPPING 300% LONG this week, while Commercial increased 13% more SHORT, making 32% SHORT side.
    NASDAQ was up 4.2% this week!
    …………….We all should know what this means for the NASDAQ!……………….
    Lets see how this plays out in the next few weeks to month!

    Have a GREAT weekend all!
    $Doug OUT!

      • RDL
        This is still a start to this project.
        Hoping to figure out a time pattern on these weekly number to better set up Swing trades and figuring movement in sectors.

        One sector watching & studying is Copper for LONG long term safety trading. Putting on watch to trade LONG on upward swings is BRSS, COPX, CU…they have higher BETA which I like for Swing trading.

        To extend on about above Futures study, I’m seeing/looking at NASDAQ & stocks within that sector as the best for SHORTING at this time.

        ANY thoughts from anyone on this would be greatly appreciated!!!!

        HAPPY TRADING
        $Doug Out!

  43. While there is an obvious bear flag on the SPY now with such extremely low volume I’m not sure if it will play out or not? It’s resting on a trendline of support (and gap window), so while I’d love to see a gap fill I’m certainly not counting on it.

    This actually looks like a small wave 4 down with Monday ending the wave 3 up. This leaves another wave up (wave 5) to make a higher high (then Monday) to end this 5 wave advance from the 2050 zone starting point.

    I suspect we’ll make a new higher high (maybe 2140 SPX?) but not positive on that. Lots of times they trick the bulls by getting really close and then stopping. If so then we’d complete a 5 wave series up and allow for a ABC (larger wave 2 down) pullback to happen.

    Then we’ll see if this bulls’ really got legs or not, as the next wave up would be a larger wave 3 (that would have 5 smaller waves inside it) that could take us to around 2200 SPX. I don’t think the bear case is dead but instead it just “appears” the bulls want to go a little higher before they quit and allow for a nice drop sometime in August to late September.

    • Based on today being Wednesday, which has odds of only 7% being the high or low for any given week, I have to speculate that we’ll drop one more time (Thursday morning I’d guess) before we rally back up. Lot’s of support in the 2098-2108 SPX zone from various daily moving averages. So if we drop tomorrow morning I’d be a bull.

    • Since we are now unlikely to rally up to 2100 by the close today I’m no longer bearish on Monday. It looks more like the move down I was expecting for that day is happening today. I’m neutral to bullish for Monday now as we’ve had 5 down days in a row and the odds of another one Monday seem low too me.

  44. Leaked Federal Reserve Staff Projections Show Expected Federal Funds Rate Of 0.35% By End Of 2015 – UNCONFIRMED

    http://www.benzinga.com/news/15/07/5702260/leaked-federal-reserve-staff-projections-show-expected-federal-funds-rate-of-0-35

    How nice of them to “leak” this after the market has pulled back 50 SPX points or so. This “now” tells me we are near a low and they want to get bears on board short so they can squeeze them up to new highs.

    We all know how they conveniently leak information at just the right time to trick bears into to shorting near a bottom (or bulls into going long near a top).

  45. week ending 07/24/15….(this is the weekly change)
    $DJI….-518, down 2.9%
    $SPX….-47, down 2.2%
    NASDAQ…. -121, down 2.3%

    futures 07/24/15 …….( % greater on Long or Short from COMMERCIALS traders)
    DJI- 6% short….6% decrease to SHORT side
    S&P- 1% long….2% decrease to LONG side
    NASDAQ- 48% short….16% increase to SHORT side * *(see note below)
    Russel- 1% short, 1% increase to SHORT side

    Silver- 14% short….6% decrease to SHORT side
    copper- 53% long….1% increase to LONG side
    Gold- 11% short….15% decrease to SHORT side **(see note below)
    us oil- 44% short….3% increase to SHORT side
    VIX- 55% long….13% increase to LONG side

    ** amazing BIGGER build up from Commercials to 48% to the SHORT side on NASDAQ @ same time retail investors are building up now at 365% to the LONG side.
    GOLD had a big decrease to the SHORT side….watching for bounce

    Interesting week coming, Good Luck to all!
    $DOUG out!

  46. With the FOMC 2 day meeting tomorrow and Wednesday I think we can expect a low going into it as they already leaked the .035 interest rate hike last week. So all this selling today is the old “sell the rumor, buy the news” trading that seems to always trick the retail trader.

    By the time the meeting ends and the minutes are released this Wednesday at 2pm EST the charts are going to be very oversold. In fact I think we’ll bottom before that and chop around Wednesday until the meeting is over with.

    Speculation here but my guess is that we’ll bottom Tuesday then rally some for a wave 1 up into early Wednesday and down for a wave 2 into the 2pm meeting. Then the typical “squeeze the bears” move after the meeting and into the close.

    Pure guessing there but we’ve all seen this rodeo many times now. Everyone gets all bearish going into a meeting thinking the Fed’s are going to say something bad and they forget they the news was leaked ahead of time on purpose to create the fear and selling into the event. Then we see the typical “shake out up and down” within minutes of the announcement and finally the move back up into the close later.

    Since the gap down this Monday morning was blamed on the China drop it’s done a great job of luring in late bears. But I don’t see this lasting past the FOMC meeting. I’m watching the VIX now for clues and when it fills the gap at 16.60 I’ll be looking for a bottom in the SPX. It should be close after that’s filled I think.

      • He’s a mega bull by the way…. but he also follows his system religiously. I’d say he’s 80% right when the market is trending or developing a new trend. But his system will flip flop a lot when trendless and in choppy waters. I don’t watch him too often but every now and then I like to see what he see’s for the “big picture”.

        • Thanks, I’ll remember that, is USEFUL having that upfront knowledge!

          I learned to not follow just one person, but use others opinions/charts & info as a crutch on what I’m studying at the time. Find many times to delete some sites I check, then add them back later down the road again!

          • Well funny part was I seen he saying to Short Gold on a trade as of yesterday??????, but I already went Long Swing yesterday on the Metal miners. I say next week is when to look to short after a bounce. Will see how this unfolds!

  47. Since we’ve made a higher high today odds are slim that today (Wednesday) will be the high for the week. Since the 1980’s any given Wednesday only puts in the high or low for that week 7% of the time… therefore there’s a 93% chance of a higher high on Thursday or Friday.

    • Planning on transferring into some Bear/Vix Funds this afternoon.
      Even though I believe like you we will have an attempt to run up higher Thursday.

  48. I see a wedge forming & a squeeze to SPY 212.5 area
    Leo, also see below my comment on Metal Miners

    • You point on the $VIX is interesting because leading into 2007 and starting 2007, Vix was under $10, even under $9 at a point!

    • Do “NOTE” that even though the weekly chart is turning back up slightly this move up needs to happen fast… like before breaking that rising trendline on the weekly chart. If for some reason we break that support (that goes back to the 1074 SPX low in 2011) we could fall off a cliff and bury the MACD’s, Histogram Bars, and Stochastic’s on both the daily and weekly chart.

  49. While I think we are “close” to having a breakout to a new high soon I just can’t get excited about going long with the VIX so low and all those bulls still onboard from the 2040 SPX area over the last several months. If SkyNet would just flush them out with some drop to 2000-2020 I’d become a bull again.

    They never filled the VIX gap at 16.60 and that leaves some hope that they might just be planing another drop to get the Weekly chart oversold and then allow for a bottom to form. All the bears would pile on below 2040 and once SkyNet gets the bus full it should be plenty of fuel to squeeze them up hard like the rip from the 1820 SPX low last year in October.

    • With the news from the FOMC today of them NOT announcing a scheduled rate hike in September as the rumor last week told us it would be .35% I have too think traders will get bullish now… and that should mean the opposite will happen and we’ll drop again.

    • The power of Ms J ImYelling to rally markets is fizzling. I look across my large watch/trade list and see tanks everywhere for a while now!
      I have found that when this happens, then the general markets finally fall last.

      I agree with you Leo what you said a little ways back that it is only favorable to just make traded in a very short period.
      My swing trades that work are for 1 to 3 days, not the usual 1 to 3 weeks!

      • Yeah… until there’s a clear break of 2135 or 2040 we are still trendless and therefore you must trade short term. The market has given us tons of 2-5 days moves in the same direction, but catching a 3 week move is tough.

        Maybe we start one soon as it’s sure looking like a big move up or down is coming. In that latest video I did yesterday I point out the reasons to be bullish.

        But if that 2040 breaks then we are in for a huge drop like 2011. Crashes happen from oversold charts and the weekly chart is now in that oversold range where it should turn back up or dump hard and tank the market big.

  50. Still No conformation yet for a big move down. Last Friday we were looking for the SPX to close below the 2080 area to break the rising trendline of support on the weekly chart sine the 2011 low. But they closed it at 2103, well above that trendline.

    So while Monday we should see the market rollover and drop from some overbought charts on the short term, we really can’t get too bearish until the 2040 level breaks and we get a break of the weekly rising trendline of support that should rise up a few points more by this Friday

    At this point we seem to be back to playing this market day by until this zone is either broken below the 2040 support or 2135 resistance. It’s really 50/50 still, but leans bullish as each new week passes. The is because the weekly chart is in that area where turns back up commonly happened in the past (as I explained in the new video I did a few days ago).

    Failure to turn back up should lead to a massive “fall off a cliff” move down like it did in the August 2011 correction. The chart back then and today look similar but it means nothing until a break of 2040 occurs. More range bound trading is likely still in play this week with an overbought short term market that suggests we’ll sell off early this week.

    We could still see a slight move up Monday as suggested in the quick 5 minute video update I did on Friday. This because the ES Futures never hit the falling trendline of resistance around 2110 area. If hit I would look for a pullback the rest of the day and Tuesday too.

    On the SPX it’s around 2113 or so. First support area going down is from a rising trendline around 2075 area. Break that and we should go to 2065 for the double bottom test from 7/27, and finally we have the 2040 support below that.

    Personally I’ll look to just play the resistance levels for short entries with exit plans at each support level. Longs only to be taken when the current 4h, 2h, and 60min charts get oversold and look to turn back up. This could happen at any support level as that’s just not know until we get there.

    • Like the levels you put in Leo, marking and will watch!

      No weekly updated CFTC % Changes from me the next few weeks as my time being tied up on other things.

      Happy Trading All!
      $Doug OUT!

  51. @ the games ago of Trick, Flip Flop, Confuse people!

    Yesterday a Fed Official came out & says September is correct to start interest rate increase!
    Then today another comes out saying, maybe not…need more data to consider when to!

  52. Today being Wednesday means that the odds of the high for the week happening today are only 7%, so that tells us that there’s a 93% chance of a higher high Thursday or Friday. If you are a bear you need to know that today isn’t likely the best day to short… besides daytraders of course.

    • Looks like we are well past the last turn date… but we’ve not done much but chop since then I guess. All I can say is the the upside has too be limited with the VIX soooooo low!

  53. If job data good tomorrow then market will fear the rate increase from the Fed’s… so they sell the SPX again. If job data bad then market thinks the Fed will put off rate hike until next year… and so they buy the SPX. A rally into the close today should mean we had good data tomorrow and therefore drop in the SPX.

  54. Some serious turmoil occurring beneath the surface while they hold up the pillars of the market, AMZN, GOOG, NFLX to give the appearance of calm. It’s no longer the four horsemen on the NDX since Apple has now succumbed and dropped below its 200 day average. Media stocks were whacked this week including former stalwart DIS as the “bull market” model of constantly rasising prices on consumers to pad earnings is coming apart at the seams as consumers are abandoning cable tv.

    IBB had a 4% hit on Thursday, new lows are creeping up again to 52 week high levels, a certain little component Nasdaq version is dropping to new lows while the NYSE version is waiting to break through its low from a few weeks ago.

    We had the Bozocare bubble top a few weeks ago as mega insurance companies combined so that they can jack up premiums even higher now that they have their law firmly entrenched and have a new captive audience/ market at their mercy. Just tells me how badly things will be falling apart in the future in maybe a South Sea Bubble style denouement as consumers finally revolt against the mandates imposed by the corporate oligopoly.

    • We are in some serious South Sea Bubble cycle territory now. 295 years from the SS Bubble top. I don’t have the exact dates but the high occurred in August 1720, with denouement occurring in September. There was a great conjuction of planets on September 9,10. That could have launched the waterfall portion of denouement. Only the operators/ gnomes of Zurich have the exact dates.

      We are also on the 25 year cycle to 1990 which saw a high in late July with a low in September. They might have delayed the 25 year cycle by three years to better align it with the 1990 pattern although it will probably take on a fiercer form. A lot of parallels to 1990 right now, a real estate bubble high/bursting….Japanese buying up US real estate/ trophy properties in New York…..Now a real estate bubble with the Chinese buying up US real estate/ trophy properties in New York…..real estate developers building luxury apartment buildings everywhere now and commanding “luxury level rents” even though many of the properties remain minimally occupied.

      Transports peaked out the previous fall in 1989 while the market made an overall peak in July 1990. Transports/ utilities peaking in early 2015.

      • It looks like the celebrated Leo,Tebow, will be making the Eagles. All of this after spending a year out of football, helping launch the SEC network last year on his birthday.

    • SBUX finally got whacked along with NKE, the two retail stocks that were probably holding up RTH while XRT diverged badly. Hotel stocks have been getting whacked as well…..HOT,WYN, MAR, HLT etc.

  55. SPX Forecast for August: http://screencast.com/t/W0Iw6aEv

    THIS IS ALL SEEN ON A DAILY CHART
    ———————————
    May 21st, 2015 high of 2134.28 to July 8th low of 2044.66 is LARGE Wave A down, which was 89.62 points in total.

    It had 3 MEDIUM Waves inside it with it’s A down ending at 2072.14 on 6/9, then MEDIUM B up to 2129.87 on 6/22, and MEDIUM C down to end LARGE A down on 7/8 at 2044.66

    Then we had LARGE Wave B up from 7/8 low to a 7/20 high of 2132.82, which was a 95.8% retracement back up or 88.16 points.

    From the 7/20 high we started the LARGE Wave C down, and so far it’s breaking down into many smaller waves. We are currently still in the first MEDIUM Wave A down inside LARGE Wave C down.

    Inside MEDIUM Wave A down we appear to have completed SMALL Wave A down from 2132.82 to the 2063.52 low on 7/27, then SMALL Wave B up from there into the 7/31 high of 2114.24, and now we are in SMALL Wave C down currently (from 7/31).

    This SMALL Wave C appears to have broken down into 5 smaller waves. Wave 1 down went from 2114.24 on 7/31 to 2067.91 on 8/7. It had an ABC wave patten inside it as follows: Tiny A from 2114.24 to 2088.60, Tiny B back up to 2112.66, and then Tiny C down to 2067.91… ending Wave 1 down inside SMALL Wave C down.

    Next we have the move up on Monday the 10th to make the Wave 2 up inside SMALL Wave C down, which was from 2067.91 to 2105.35, and thus putting us currently in Wave 3 down inside SMALL Wave C down today.

    Since most all C waves and 3 waves are long and powerful they tend to divide into 5 wave patterns. That suggests yesterday’s high of 2105.35 to the suggested low this coming Thursday or Friday should have 5 wave inside it. I think we have done 1 down, 2 up (at the open today) and currently are in 3 down now.

    If correct this leaves 4 up Wednesday and 5 down Thursday yet to come. The length of this wave down should be a ratio of it’s A wave down. Since SMALL Wave A down for this wave was from the 7/20 high of 2132.82 to the 2063.52 low that’s a total of 69.3 points.

    Therefore, if SMALL Wave C down equals SMALL Wave A down in length then from the 2114.24 start of SMALL Wave C down we can subtract 69.3 points to come up with a downside target of 2044.94 as the coming low.

    If SMALL Wave C equals 1.618% of SMALL Wave A down then we have 112.13 points down from 2114.24, or 2002.11 for the coming low this Thursday or Friday.

    After this low is in we’ll complete SMALL Wave C down, as well as MEDIUM Wave A down, inside LARGE Wave C down. This means next week (the week of option expiration from 8/17-8/21 we should see MEDIUM Wave B up happen.

    If MEDIUM Wave A down completes this week at the 2044.94 low then we have 89.34 points for it in total. Since MEDIUM Wave B up should be some Fibonacci percentage of the A wave we have the following possibilities…

    MEDIUM Wave B up if 2044.94 low…
    If 38.2% of MEDIUM Wave A down, then we should see 34.13 points up from the low of 2044.94, or 2079.07

    If 50% of MEDIUM Wave A down, then we should see 44.67 points up to 2089.61

    If 61.8% of MEDIUM Wave A down, then we should see 55.21 points up to 2100.15

    MEDIUM Wave B up if 2002.11 low…
    If 38.2% of MEDIUM Wave A down, then we should see 42.83 points up from the low of 2002.11, or 2044.94

    If 50% of MEDIUM Wave A down, then we should see 56.06 points up to 2058.17

    If 61.8% of MEDIUM Wave A down, then we should see 69.29 points up to 2071.40

    FINALLY…

    If all this happens then what should start the week of August 24th is MEDIUM Wave C down inside LARGE Wave C down, and that’s a whole new story my friends! Needless to say when you get many C waves stacked on top of each other you get a “FLASH CRASH”… caused by what you ask? Watch the movie Lucy, and look closely around 55 minutes into it. The rewatch The Matrix with the interview Neo had with an agent. False Flags are told to the insiders in advance.

  56. A couple theories from Richard Russell…….
    I have only two theories; first, the market will decline in a jagged
    see-saw pattern, a pattern that creates no fear. The market drops ten
    percent and analysts declare that this is the long awaited and long
    expected ten percent correction.

    But the general market continues to
    decline, and investors remain in the market waiting for the inevitable
    rally that will conclude the correction. No rally comes, and stocks
    continue to decline, suddenly there is a realization that this is no
    correction but a bear market, and down goes the bear, taking billion of
    shares with him.

    The other scenario that I envision is
    one day, with no previous warning, the market drops and a huge gap, over
    a thousand points in the Dow opens. The authorities close the exchange
    for three days and when the market opens, it gaps down again. When the
    market finally opens again, thousands of stocks open well below their
    previous closes and a bear market is on.

        • I’d say… “YEAH”! If we have some false flag event again and this time it’s a powerful bomb, then you know that’s where we’ll spike the VXX and QID up hard. Of course it might not hit those levels until a week or so later. And they could close down the market for a week like they did with 911.

          • Forced liquidations are going to wreck havoc in the markets like we have never seen before. Be prepared and do not play bounces.

          • Now if the new Ben Fulford comments are true….We have a very big problem just beginning…..
            JP Morgan and other Western mega-banks have already begun stealing
            depositors’ money, according to sources at the Asian Development Bank
            and an American millionaire who reported his own funds were stolen. The
            development bank source said a man who had $4 million on deposit with JP
            Morgan contacted him to say the bank had refused to allow him to
            withdraw his money. Instead the man was offered a “365 day bank
            guarantee.” In other words, the bank would not give him his money but
            offered to tell other banks that he had money. Many of the largest
            Western banks are now keeping themselves from going bankrupt by offering
            “guarantees” to each other, the source said. The American millionaire,
            based in Washington State, said more than $100 million of his money had
            also been stolen outright. A Japanese financier also told this writer
            that Citibank had stolen more than $10 million of his money he deposited
            at their branch in Tokyo. A Japanese female acquaintance said she had
            too had $50,000 stolen from her account at the branch of an American
            owned bank in Tokyo. The banks were not available for comment at the
            time of this writing but it is clear from this anecdotal and also from
            public evidence (like derivatives holdings and market manipulation) that
            most Western mega-banks are no longer functioning properly.

          • He’s rarely ever been right… in fact I can’t recall anything he was right about? Lindsey isn’t much better, but at least we get the “plans” of the elite from him, just not the correct time frame. Fulford doesn’t really seem to have any source that accurate… even if the time frame isn’t right. But he’s still interesting to read from time to time. I just don’t trade off him or make forecasts based on his stuff… nor Lindseys’ stuff.

          • These “Reversal bars” are NOT working on SPY….looking like opportunities to sell at end of day. Change of character for sure.

  57. Looks like a small A up and B down happening so far. This leaves a small C up into the close to possibly hit 207 SPY area. I’m guessing this is a wave 4 up of some kind, which leaves the final 5th wave down tomorrow to complete this sell off since the Monday high.

    • Nice squeeze. If it continues we could see 210 SPY from a falling trendline tomorrow. Not sure of course, but if it happens that’s where I’d short into a low by Friday. But it needs to hold this current rally into the close I think. If it rolls back down later today then we’ll likely put in the high for this wave up today and we’ll be heading lower tomorrow… not up to 210 area.

  58. Latest Lindsey Williams update: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=am5CcO0ITPE (Remember that “they” use him to mislead the sheep about the “timing” of any event to profit them and get you trapped on the wrong side of any trade. So anything said about a crash in a certain month you can rest assured that it will be a bottom instead. Meaning “if” we do crash it will likely happen beforehand. Again, all this focus on September and the Shemitah tells me the panic in the market will happen well before then)

  59. Time for some Tebowmania!!!!!! Happy 28th birthday Tebow tomorrow (Friday). It looks like he’ll be making the SILVER LINING PLAYBOOK EAGLES.

    New moon basically conjunct the Venus Sun conjunction in Leo tomorrow as well. It’s a 91 as well. The usual 136, 46, 24, 1212 ie 33. 85 of course.

    • They’ve been whacking all of the China play stocks the last few days sans today with the yuan devaluation. All of the luxury retailers, YUM, Mercedes Benz. I wonder if SBUX is even considered a China play. Macy’s, a Chinese tourist retail destination play????

  60. I don’t think they are going to let this market go down much today because of the weekly rising trendline of support from the 2011 low is still VERY important for them to keep. It broke last Friday and if they let it break again today I think mutual funds and hedge fund companies will hit the sell button hard if they see it close below it 2 weeks in a row. It’s around 2083 SPX from what I can see.

  61. Got another FP this morning the VXX: http://screencast.com/t/VC6S4Pb5 It’s showing a high of 68.33 and “33” is a ritual number for the assholes that run this world. That’s the 2nd FP (fake print) on VXX (https://a.disquscdn.com/uploads/mediaembed/images/2344/3029/original.jpg)… which has a high of 108.56, and that “could” be a coded message where the 108 part equals 9 and the .56 part equals 11… or 9/11?

    We also have one on QID (http://screencast.com/t/HAikAV1U9k3) showing a high of 50.06, which when added all up together equals 11, and again… all “elevens” and multiples of them (22, 33, 44, 55, 666, etc…) are ritual numbers for the elite that control the market and create false flags.

    • Markets are looking like things are about to get ugly. These signals are a hint of things to come. Protecting capital is key. With VIX and Markets up, one of them is very wrong.

      • In order for the sheep to be fooled before the crash we should rally up to 2120-2130 SPX area by next Friday. So while Monday I expect to see some selling I don’t see 2040 area being broken yet. In fact, I think we won’t see that level hit and broken until the 4th week of August and I don’t think it will stop there but continue much lower.

  62. Monday Morning ES Futures Update:http://reddragonleo.com/media/ES-Futures-Update-8-17-2015.png Jing seems to be down so I could get the chart out before the open… sorry guys. But it looks like the market just dropped without the backtest I thought might happen as shown in the chart.

    So now we just wait until the 10:30-11:30 am time period to see what they decide to do. If they reverse this nicely then we could still get our short opportunity into Tuesday. If they continue down then we could have missed it… which implies they will bottom Tuesday morning and then reverse back up. At that point we’ll have missed the short and will be looking for a “possible” long. Just depends on what the charts say at that point. Right now it’s clear that down is the direction. I just personally don’t like to chase it.

    • Or we could be involved in Theory #1 ….We shall see in this weeks action.

      A couple theories from Richard Russell…….
      I have only two theories; first, the market will decline in a jagged
      see-saw pattern, a pattern that creates no fear. The market drops ten
      percent and analysts declare that this is the long awaited and long
      expected ten percent correction.

      But the general market continues to
      decline, and investors remain in the market waiting for the inevitable
      rally that will conclude the correction. No rally comes, and stocks
      continue to decline, suddenly there is a realization that this is no
      correction but a bear market, and down goes the bear, taking billion of
      shares with him.

      The other scenario that I envision is
      one day, with no previous warning, the market drops and a huge gap, over
      a thousand points in the Dow opens. The authorities close the exchange
      for three days and when the market opens, it gaps down again. When the
      market finally opens again, thousands of stocks open well below their
      previous closes and a bear market is on.

    • This week is normally bullish, so we could be done on the downside? Not sure yet of course but I’m looking for the VIX to fill the gap down at 12.40 from last week (from today of course too). That’s the BIG setup short I’m looking for to happen. Today there wasn’t a good short setup as they gaped it down and didn’t let us bears in until it bottomed. Typical manipulation. If there would have been a backtest as I suggested in the chart I would have shorted for a day trade, but my big setup isn’t until after that VIX gap fills.

      • I use to pay for their service till they moved it from$49.95 to $99.95 per month….But they are good for Swing trading!

        • Yeah… back in 2009 or 2010 I also paid the $50 per month for their nightly 30-45 minute video updates. I learned a lot about trendlines and things from them. But they really didn’t do options back then, so I quit after several months. But I like them overall, seem too be pretty good guys and accurate enough to make more then your money back from their fee.

          • Don’t know if you know, but they now do an Options Alert Service for $99.99/mo….I never used it tho
            I don’t do options as already tough enough tracking charts and signals for regular purchases,
            BUT ya, pretty good info comes out from those guys & keeps you sharp on things to watch!

            Thanks Leo, Power is Better in Numbers from us traders!!!!!!
            Lets MAKE $, not lose, in this Market!
            $Doug Out!

          • Yes, it was posted yesterday in their video and it is still there on their main page. DDD is like $13 and they are saying it will breakout of it’s bullflag this week to $17. Helluva trade for option players if materializes.

          • Good luck playing it if you are going to? I will say that on the daily chart it did breakout of a falling trendline of resistance back on 8/6 with it’s earnings pop and has basically backtested it now.

            On the weekly chart it has good horizontal support in the 10-13 dollar range, and pierced into the middle of the range on the 8/5 low of 11.69, so it could rally higher over the coming days and weeks I guess?

            But if the overall market drops hard starting next week I don’t see this stock rallying against the trend. It would have been a better call if they would have went long from the 11.69 low prior to earnings… which could have been based on the support zone of 10-13 dollars being hit from the weekly chart.

    • I’m on vacation…fly home Saturday!
      Monday been on my mind & hoping that find ends up just being a fluke!

        • as I have said before…my large stock watch list has soooo many stocks that have crashed price wise, it’s hard to see how the regular markets have held up this long & this high!

  63. Lucy followed me into a 711 store 711 (variant of the number) days ago tomorrow. And she was in the Black Dahlia!!!

    BD event was 25053 days ago tomorrow as well.

    Haven’t seen that flick but the date in it was some variant of 86 as I recall.

    • This looks like some kind of wave 3 down at the open this morning to the FP level and then back up for the wave 4 and now down again for the wave 5. Wherever this bottoms at I suspect it will happen by the 2pm FOMC meeting. Again, it’s common to sell off in fear of what the Fed’s might say and then rally in relief that nothing major was said that was viewed at too bad for the market. However, charts are still bearish right now and do not support a long (other then just day trades).

  64. The market looks bearish, feels bearish, but charts still tell me we are going up… probably not huge today but tomorrow we “could” rally up hard. Sounds crazy I know.. but it’s what I see in the charts. Probably best to just not take any position and watch… at least that’s what I’m going to do.

    • Yes looks and feels ugly. Futures are not looking good either. Hope there is a rip up tomorrow as I have calls expiring Friday.

      • Yeah…. I went long around 11:43 am (EST) and bailed at a breakeven on the large pullback into the close. Rarely do you get that big of a rally on a Fed Day where it doesn’t hold. I expected some pullback once it closed the gap but when it rolled back down it just kept falling.

        The bulls need to save around 2083-2085 SPX area as that’s about where that rising trendline is coming in at on the weekly chart (from the 2011 low). If they can’t save it… then all hell should break loose next week as the big institutions hit the sell button.

        Charts are oversold short term so possibly they save it and keep us in limbo by closing right on it so we don’t know what to do. There’s an “inverted head & shoulders” pattern on the 60 minute chart with the left shoulder on 8/7 and the head on 8/11… and of course today’s low put in the right shoulder.

        If it plays out then we should see a move above the prior group of highs around the 2110 zone… maybe we hit 2120 after all? But I think the pattern failed in the last rally up in the 2011 correction. So we could fail on this one too I guess?

        That would imply a move up to around 2100 or so before topping and dropping to start the big correction that we bears have been waiting so long for. It could come Thursday and then roll over Friday? That certainly would be a tricky move and fool some bears.

  65. 3 days ago I stated “VIX and markets are up and one was very wrong”…… Looks like it was Mr. Market. (as if we didn’t know who the failing party would be)

    • Yep… now the real question is whether we are done on the downside today or is this just now going to start getting ugly? Charts say we are near a short term bottom but who knows?

      • I say ugly….Everyone expecting some assistance has been natural. A change is about to occur. Multiple Black Swans to spread their wings. Good luck with your choices.

  66. They need 2085 SPX area (give or take a few points) by the close on Friday to save the weekly trendline of support since the 2011 low. If you do that by the close tomorrow then you leave the bears thinking the low is in and we are off to the races again for the bulls. Then next Monday you stage another False Flag event like 9/11 was and blame the crash on it. No bears will be in the market and bulls will be fully loaded on the train to hell.

    • From high to low today on the SPXS for 8/19/2015) you have a .67 cent range (18.31-17.64), and on the SPX that day you went from 2096.17 to 2070.53 (doesn’t include the gap down points), which is a 25.64 point range on it.

      Dividing 25.64 by .67 cents and you get a rough multiplier of 38.2685

      The range on the FP shows a low of 18.39 to a high of 20.83, or 2.44 points. If you multiple that times 38.2685 you get a 93.37 point move on the SPX.

  67. From the 2103 high to the 2070 low yesterday you have 33 points for what looks like an A wave down. Then the B wave up around the FOMC time period. Now if we are in C down then 1.618 of 33 points equals 53 points. So the B wave high of 2096 minus 53 points puts the C wave low at 2043 SPX

    • That would be freaky for sure! Possibly we drop to 2043 SPX Friday morning and hit 6.66 on the TVIX at the same time? Or maybe it closes at that today as you suggested?

  68. Remember gang that the insiders tell their buddies on the street where the market is going to prior to it happening so they can take a position beforehand. Such was the case of the 2010 Flash Crash. Insiders were told the low at 15 minutes to midnight the day before it happened. They used ritual numbers too… like 66.6667 for the StochasticFull reading as well as another “Eleven” code in the 1056 low (5+6 = 11, and with the other 1 you have 111). https://www.flickr.com/photos/reddragonleo/5382190713/in/datetaken/

  69. Actually my Lucy 711 date was today (111weeks6days…multiply those numbers).

    I am either looking for a 5% down day tomorrow to follow one model, …..or

    possibly a gap down and then rally the rest of the day back into the positive to follow another model…

    I actually favor the latter scenario since most technical indicators aren’t that oversold right now and a certain little indicator needs to head furthur south and break its low from a month ago. Most indices other than the Nasdaq and the already progressing Transports finished well below their lower BBs.

  70. Those fake prints on VXX really don’t look out of reach considering the conditions at hand. Bidless markets, non existence of a true correction for years, indices needing to play catch up with stocks not to mention the China syndrome. This looks to me as a shorting opportunity that happens about once in a decade. The VXX and it’s ETN’s could be VERY EXPLOSIVE seeing the complacency in markets for so long…an adjustment looks due. Enjoy this ride….True Opportunity to go long coming.

      • Only time is going to tell….my thoughts are sounding even crazy to me but considering the amount of shorts in VIX products….I’ll take the 110. All smart money is out and they are not buying until there is true value again. With the economy worldwide in the crapper, what number would make sense?

        • One thing for sure… August 24th is just a few days away and “if” there’s going to be a move up to 110 on the VXX it would be caused by a false flag on that day. I only pray I’m wrong on that prediction.

    • You don’t think there is a possibility we will top there and then go back down? I’ve seen several predictions on this alternate scenario.

      • I see us retesting the 1820 SPX low from last October, and I think that will happen before the end of September. Next week…tough call. But I suspect it will be very choppy (assuming Lucy doesn’t happen?) all week as the market tries to rally but gets sold off each time.

        So by the end of the week I think we’ll see this oversold (very oversold) condition be worked off so we can have another big drop in early September. Big drops like this have to pause at some point and trick the bulls back in the market and the bears out of the market.

    • We rebound next week with the DOW going to 18000 and S&P to 2080. Then Friday 8/28 into Tuesday 9/1 down again to 2040. The big boys will be coming from their Labor day holiday and there will be no Shemitah or anything of a catastrophic. We rocket higher into year end to see the S&P at 2300 and DOW at 19000 level. Democrats wants an UP market into 2016 so that their stooges can be elected. Who knows we may get a FED head on Monday stating QE4 and the market blasts off!!!

      • Around the first week of October I see a big rally up starting into 2016. Until then I see it going lower into the end of September. We might see another huge multiday drop like test week, as it could be just wild swings from now until the bottom?

        They usually don’t give the bears more then once chance to get a multiday sell off, which is why I could see up 2 days, down 2 days, etc… with an overall downward market until late September.

  71. My timing was out a little. Price was correct 1995 SPX. I unfortunately lost some money on some options that expired, but made up with my other puts and 3x etfs. A great week for us bears. Watch out for some wild swings coming our way. Looking for some kind of lower high into the end of the first week of Sept. That will shake loose a lot of bears. Down we go into the middle of Oct time frame. LOL Great time to be a BEAR !!

  72. Morning,
    Didn’t get to do a full analyzes on the weekly CFTC report BUT notice:
    Commericials now….. LONG on the S&P and DOW
    …. still SHORT on NASDAQ

  73. Well last week I advised to buy VXX and its family(TVIX/UVXY) stating they would be “VERY EXPLOSIVE”. I would call that the correct definition.

    • Right shoulder formed now on the ES Futures, so we should go back up tomorrow. But I’m a little concerned about the DOW closing at 15,666.44… of course that could mean a short term low is in just as easily as it meaning a crash is coming tomorrow.

  74. Market should chop around today up in this area holding on to gains with only small pullbacks (if any). It should try to grind higher but doesn’t have much left on the upside before it rolls over and pulls back again. It will probably happen Friday though from the looks of the charts. I’d guess they will do one of 2 scenario’s… Plan A is to gap up over the current falling trendline of resistance and sell off most of Friday to backtest that trendline at a lower level. Plan B is to rollover afterhours and be down at the open Friday but oversold and ready to push back up. At that point they can push through the falling trendline instead of gapping over it. http://screencast.com/t/OvTgG5rvO

  75. Hard too tell what they have planned for Monday, which isn’t unusual I guess, as that’s always the idea of them to leave us sheep guessing. Monday is the last day of August and I do think they want it to close up in this area with a nice bottoming tail on it’s monthly candle stick.

    So I’m leaning toward Monday gaping up and then falling to this area again, or gaping dawn and retracing back up to this area by the close. However, if down first then a nice short into Tuesday from the rally back later in the day. If up first then a short at the open.

    On this monthly chart I just get the feeling they want to close out August at or above the 20MA which is at 1992 SPX.

    http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/202363337;

    If this was the 3rd week of August and we were going into the 4th week I’d been more interesting in shorting, but Monday is the last day of the month and my gut says they want this up more to close out this month will a long bottoming tail.

  76. Futures are down over 1%. This week or next we can test 1850. Time to hunt for shorts and sell the rallies.
    The DOG or DXD could be very profitable.

  77. finally got tho look at CFTC…funny S&P futures and S&P e-mini BIG difference. Regular is to the long BUT E-mini VERY large to the down side!

      • to sum up on Consolidated report:
        S&P……………………………….. is FLAT
        DOW ……………..is Medium tilted to the LONG
        NAS ….is Slightly tilted to the SHORT

        Sometime I plan on going thur months of Data and see how forward planning these numbers are!

  78. ES Futures Midday Update: http://screencast.com/t/lIQvvaRm

    Market pulling back after hitting that falling trendline of resistance on the ES Futures per the update chart just posted. But I’m not looking for a lot on the downside. I don’t know if it will drop to the rising trendline or not? That might be too far down as most charts still want to go up.

  79. If we go down to hit the rising trendline tomorrow then it’s most likely a buy. If we gap up to hit the falling trendline then it’s most likely a sell. The old rule of thumb is to do the opposite of the open on job data day… and they release it at 8:30 am before the open. But even if it gaps up and falls back down tomorrow the medium trend is still up. So early next week I do see a rally.

  80. Did we get a Deflategate top on Thursday morning? A little coded message to the insiders? Even I am not uberbearish at the moment but I have to be wary still since a certain little indicator is still deep into negative territory and the downtrending 13 day ema hasn’t been penetrated yet and we still have a similar astro situation to double ninen coming up.
    <>>
    Looking at the Nikkei in early 1990 might provide a good barometer. A similar pattern occurred in the Feb March timeframe as to the current indices and the 13 day ema was never penetrated. I have been waiting for a strong wave 2 bounce but we might not get it (or it was last week).
    <>>>
    Looks like Tebow will land a spot on the Silver Linings Playbook Eagles as they traded their 3rd string QB Barkley to the Cardinals. Tebow now #11. Previously #15 for his big 316 game as a Bronco (#6 with Patriots and UF???)

  81. Everyone should watch the last episode of the TV series called “Mr. Robot” as think there is a lot of hints of what the powers that be plan on doing in the near future when the BIG Stock Market Crash happens.

    In it you’ll see that the company called E Corp has a logo that looks like Enron did. In the show they blame a hacker for the crash, who destroys banking records so all the sheep are free from debt as there’s no more proof of any debt.

    Then at the end of it the main guy at E Corp goes to a party where he talks to an Asian man and states that he knows who did the hack and will take care of it, just like they always do. That is clearly a reference to the fact that ALL Crashes are created.

    And they always know the reason behind them because they plan/allow/orchestrate/execute both the cause (false flag) and the event to profit from them.

  82. The operators pulled a headfake and ended up cutting Tebow on Saturday. When I think of the Eagles’ coach, I think of his S19 playcalling card.

    Most averages other than the Nasdaq ones held their downtrending 13 emas although the futures are up at the moment. Nasdaq still below its 20 day average. Also markets need to hold the opening month highs which the #ndx is right at it with today’s close.

    I still like that Nikkei fractal because I already see a smaller version in the SP previously. Baby fractal.

    • Hmmm… rally looks tired. We may have already ended here now? Wave count wise we could have started some 1 down, 2 up (ending now?) inside a C down? But this “feels” like it’s going to drop now, and drop hard. Possibly we creep up to that falling trendline of resistance on the SPY chart they had better make a move quickly.

  83. Equity markets were deeply oversold, near the lower (-2sigma) Bollinger Band.
    Yesterday, we got a bullish (contrary) signal from the options markets.
    And this morning we got the follow-through, at least in terms of price.

    The internals still do not look so solid.
    New lows outnumber new highs almost 3 to 1.
    Only 25% of stocks are above their 50dMA.
    Only 27% of stocks are above their 200dMA.
    http://finviz.com/

    https://twitter.com/tradethecycles/status/643540337445613568

  84. Who’ really knows which way they will take this thing from manipulation short term. We all know it is going down due to loss of control with economies deteriorating throughout the world on a daily basis. The time has come to pay the piper. As stated here a couple weeks ago the miners (NUGT,GDX) are the safe haven and are on target for your next explosive move. Still like oil and fear index too.

  85. Well, looks like tomorrow is the big day. There should be some wild moves after the 2pm minutes… especially if they don’t raise rates. Whatever happens I’ll be looking to short it into next week.

  86. I’m a little conflicted. I don’t know if I should be uber bearish or short term semi-bullish. We have Greek elections coming up that nobody is talking about which should scare anyone but then we have crash calls and calls for a market turn yesterday by notorious misdirecting trolls. The momentum was so strong on yesterday’s high on the short term charts that I think they need to be retested.
    <<>>>>
    The pope is also visiting LES Manhattan Isle next week and will be addressing the UN (possibly proclaiming the dawn of the Age of Aquarius to the UN???) so that should make anyone worried. Winston Churchill was in NYC in double ninen to watch denouement take place that year.
    <<>>>>>
    And we have the Silver Lining Playbook EAGLES squaring off against Dallas on Sunday facing a potential bloodbath loss as the Curse of Tebow continues to take force. The pundits continue to proclaim that the EAGLES will mop up the #88 less Cowboys which on paper does seem like an apparent mismatch but the operators are setting up an epic headfake and continue to fool the masses into thinking the EAGLES can be SB contenders while being led by the woeful 1987 born QB #7 (formerly #8) (who lost to Tebow in his original 316 game back in 2009). In fact, all of the hype should be faded as long as #7 continues to start unless he’s facing cupcakes….but he did face one last week and still lost.

  87. In the past 25 years the VIX has risen from a level below 20 to a level above 45, within a matter of a couple of months or less, 6 times. This happened in 1998, 2002, 2008, 2010, 2011, and now recently, when the VIX went over 50 in August. The previous 5 times this occurred, here is what happened to the VIX in the months that followed:

    1998: In August, the VIX hits 45.02. September VIX high: 48.06, October VIX high: 49.53.
    2002: In July, the VIX hits 48.46. August high: 45.21, September high: 41.86, October high: 43.44.
    2008: In September, the VIX hits 48.40. For the next 7 months it rises above 45 every month, going above 50 in 6 of those 7 months, and peaks above 80 in October and November.
    2010: In May, the VIX hits 48.20. June high: 37.38, July high: 37.58.
    2011: In August, the VIX hits 48.00. September high: 43.87, October high: 46.88.

    And now 2015: In August, the VIX hits 53.29 after being as low as 10.88 just earlier in the month.

    The previous 5 times this occurred (VIX going from 45 in 2 months or less), the VIX rose to a level above 37 in each of the 2 months that followed 100% of the time. And the previous 4 times when the initial VIX reading above 45 occurred in the second half of the year, as it has this year, the VIX rose to above 40 in each of the following 2 months (or more) 100% of the time.

    • Just reiterating…. OIL…GOLD….FEAR!! Look at these last 2 candlesticks on the SPY. That’s NOT BULLISH by any means.

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