I haven’t seen a lot of inside scoop on P Diddy. The coven is throwing him under the bus like they did to Harvey Weinstein when Hillary was running for prez in 2016. I guess they are trying to generate anger towards powerful male figures.(again)
I’m looking for a high on the full moon on the 17th or October 16th. October 16th would be 3 months (90degrees) from the July high. We’ll see how my exhaustion indicators will be in a few days. In wave 5s, they don’t work as well as waves don’t get extended. The Vix remains elevated which is a bearish tell. There were only 20%bears in the most recent AAII poll, probably one of the lowest readings of the year.
The 30 day average for the SP remains above a certain indicator which is not a bullish configuration. A mega rally is going to be needed for it to get above the 30 day. Another indicator has been trending down while the SP rallies which is another red flag.
Everything is stopping at the 20 day ema. I think we’re getting a big pop tomorrow and back to the highs. The Nasdaq is the big tell. It’s making a higher low and getting stopped by the 20day ema.
The high will have to be made closer to the full moon. This could be similar to the final dome move in August 1987. Also to the similar Nasdaq dome drop and pop move in March 2000. $namo got down to -30 in that move. $nymo should be around there today. Then it rallied only back to the O line. There could be some chop before it gets to the highs. A little 1-2 move that keeps $nymo negative.
Maybe similar to November 2021 in that regard but I haven’t checked out the analog there. (Market makes a final high while $nymo drops)
One sign that the SP 500 top is in from last week: The rally from the August low was a Fib 61.8 percent of the move in trading days to the rally from the April low into the July high. It was also tied into the high of July 27.2023 and the October 27, 2023 low although the SP made the high on the 26th last week. The Dow made the high on the 27th. Also, we saw a weekly topping bar for most indices.
We’re getting preliminary sell signals. Stuff that one sees before the start of a decline but doesn’t work in a raging bull market.
The 30 day simple moving average has remained above a certain indicator which is indicating market uncertainty. In a bull, the indicator would be above a trending rising 30 day average. This is the pattern seen at major tops like in 2021-2022.
The 13 day simple moving average has caught up to the market (which partly indicates exhaustion). The SP 500 dropped to it today but did not close below it.
So there is still a chance that the market might make one more final high (wave5?) like was seen when the SP bounced off the 13 day average in late August. A drop below the 13 day average would indicate the decline is on.
Tomorrow there is a solar eclipse so we could see either see a top or something nasty. It will have a near square with Mars and a few other minor planets are in the mix.
The 17 year cycle ties into 1973. I will elaborate on that later.
That was like the 1987 top with a little 1929 top thrown in on Thursday. Also similar to the late July 2007 high.
It is interesting that the 13 and 30 day simple moving averages have converged. The markets generally freefall when they converge. (usually following a bounceback rally to this convergence.) They were too far apart during the early September decline which had me sceptical about that decline along with the tightening Bollinger bands. (which was also occurring with the Vix. The Bollinger bands are in a much better setup now) My minor sells have erased but the technical setup of the market is very bearish. I expect a bigger decline on Monday.
We have to watch out because the stock market topped out on February 19th, also a Thursday, before plummeting into the Covid Crash of 2020. Some technical setups aren’t right for that but we have to watch out for 2+% declines for a warning. The Transports were down 3.5% yesterday.
Another day like today tomorrow and it will look like the 1929 top. The last few weeks pattern is similar to the 1987 August top (longer in duration) and the March 2000 top. Of course they changed things up to fool recognizing the pattern match and kept the market flat since July.
The 1929 top saw three days down followed by a final rally to a high finished off by two gravestone dojis. This last decline was basically 3 down days followed by a slower advance to new highs
I haven’t seen a lot of inside scoop on P Diddy. The coven is throwing him under the bus like they did to Harvey Weinstein when Hillary was running for prez in 2016. I guess they are trying to generate anger towards powerful male figures.(again)
I’m looking for a high on the full moon on the 17th or October 16th. October 16th would be 3 months (90degrees) from the July high. We’ll see how my exhaustion indicators will be in a few days. In wave 5s, they don’t work as well as waves don’t get extended. The Vix remains elevated which is a bearish tell. There were only 20%bears in the most recent AAII poll, probably one of the lowest readings of the year.
The 30 day average for the SP remains above a certain indicator which is not a bullish configuration. A mega rally is going to be needed for it to get above the 30 day. Another indicator has been trending down while the SP rallies which is another red flag.
Actually today would be the 2 move. It’s following the August 1987 form more closely.
Everything is stopping at the 20 day ema. I think we’re getting a big pop tomorrow and back to the highs. The Nasdaq is the big tell. It’s making a higher low and getting stopped by the 20day ema.
The high will have to be made closer to the full moon. This could be similar to the final dome move in August 1987. Also to the similar Nasdaq dome drop and pop move in March 2000. $namo got down to -30 in that move. $nymo should be around there today. Then it rallied only back to the O line. There could be some chop before it gets to the highs. A little 1-2 move that keeps $nymo negative.
Maybe similar to November 2021 in that regard but I haven’t checked out the analog there. (Market makes a final high while $nymo drops)
One sign that the SP 500 top is in from last week: The rally from the August low was a Fib 61.8 percent of the move in trading days to the rally from the April low into the July high. It was also tied into the high of July 27.2023 and the October 27, 2023 low although the SP made the high on the 26th last week. The Dow made the high on the 27th. Also, we saw a weekly topping bar for most indices.
We’re getting preliminary sell signals. Stuff that one sees before the start of a decline but doesn’t work in a raging bull market.
The 30 day simple moving average has remained above a certain indicator which is indicating market uncertainty. In a bull, the indicator would be above a trending rising 30 day average. This is the pattern seen at major tops like in 2021-2022.
The 13 day simple moving average has caught up to the market (which partly indicates exhaustion). The SP 500 dropped to it today but did not close below it.
So there is still a chance that the market might make one more final high (wave5?) like was seen when the SP bounced off the 13 day average in late August. A drop below the 13 day average would indicate the decline is on.
Tomorrow there is a solar eclipse so we could see either see a top or something nasty. It will have a near square with Mars and a few other minor planets are in the mix.
The 17 year cycle ties into 1973. I will elaborate on that later.
The 10 day average was below the 20 day average for the SP 500 which was seen when the Nasdaq made its final high in late March 2000.
That was like the 1987 top with a little 1929 top thrown in on Thursday. Also similar to the late July 2007 high.
It is interesting that the 13 and 30 day simple moving averages have converged. The markets generally freefall when they converge. (usually following a bounceback rally to this convergence.) They were too far apart during the early September decline which had me sceptical about that decline along with the tightening Bollinger bands. (which was also occurring with the Vix. The Bollinger bands are in a much better setup now) My minor sells have erased but the technical setup of the market is very bearish. I expect a bigger decline on Monday.
We have to watch out because the stock market topped out on February 19th, also a Thursday, before plummeting into the Covid Crash of 2020. Some technical setups aren’t right for that but we have to watch out for 2+% declines for a warning. The Transports were down 3.5% yesterday.
Another day like today tomorrow and it will look like the 1929 top. The last few weeks pattern is similar to the 1987 August top (longer in duration) and the March 2000 top. Of course they changed things up to fool recognizing the pattern match and kept the market flat since July.
The 1929 top saw three days down followed by a final rally to a high finished off by two gravestone dojis. This last decline was basically 3 down days followed by a slower advance to new highs
Wild swings like the summers of 2011, 2015 also. The multi month chop fest seems to be their preferred modus operandi for denouement.