I have sell signals galore now. The strongest one (and confirming) occurred on Friday with a certain indicator breaking to new lows. The question now is, will the 100 day average stop the decline or the 200 day average?
I got a preliminary sell signal today with the market being up. Another will trigger tomorrow unless the market is up big. They were on the brink of triggering a couple of weeks ago but the market did a fakeout and went higher. I don’t think it will be following that outcome again. They last triggered in early January.
The market could still go higher but it means that the trend should soon be down. But the individual indicator will still be in decline. There will be stronger sell signals with a continued decline.
The market finally made a closing high on a final day of the week and the window is closing for the same cycle last seen during the Covid crash of 2020. I was looking for something similar to what the Nikkei experienced a couple of weeks ago if we didn’t make a new high. We still might get it. The market topped on December 28th, 3 months ago.
We gapped up big on the first of the month last month. Is that going to happen again to start April? 1929 saw the market make a high on the 1st day of the month (September) but it shouldn’t do that for some flower moon denouement. Still we’re a few days away from generating strong sell signals. And the market tends to hold up until the sell signals get generated.
We also have an easy monthly reversal set up.
The Dax has an extreme RSI so it should get a Nikkei like move from a few weeks ago. The SP 500 weekly RSI is at levels seen by the Nasdaq on March 13, 2000. TheNasdaq is lagging the SP. It didn’t make a new high with the SP yesterday.
The decline into late October hit the low on the Friday before the lunar eclipse. The Fed meeting decision occurred on November 1, three trading days after the eclipse so it could set up a high here or on Friday. All the recent turns have occurred on a Thursday or a Friday.
The lunar eclipse is Mondayish so it could hold up until then or Tuesday so we might have a flower moon denouement. .618 extension of the decline into October both in calendar and trading days targets Monday.
I looked at S&P PUT/CALL contracts. For the Dec 13 expire date no serious barriers exist until 3135. We’ll be there by the end of this week/beginning next week. Real deal starts on Dec 20th expire date between 3200-3250 strikes. Huge PUT contracts are sitting there. That’s a real BEAR sleeping there. If you touch him – you better to run away fast. So, 2 scenarios possible. 1) We make a double top near recent all time highs. 2) We make a FAKE breakout at 3200+ and then plummeting below 3000 fast.
I have sell signals galore now. The strongest one (and confirming) occurred on Friday with a certain indicator breaking to new lows. The question now is, will the 100 day average stop the decline or the 200 day average?
Thank-you Red for the time that you spend trying to get a fix on things; difficult market for sure!
Is that West Virginia?
I got a preliminary sell signal today with the market being up. Another will trigger tomorrow unless the market is up big. They were on the brink of triggering a couple of weeks ago but the market did a fakeout and went higher. I don’t think it will be following that outcome again. They last triggered in early January.
The market could still go higher but it means that the trend should soon be down. But the individual indicator will still be in decline. There will be stronger sell signals with a continued decline.
The market finally made a closing high on a final day of the week and the window is closing for the same cycle last seen during the Covid crash of 2020. I was looking for something similar to what the Nikkei experienced a couple of weeks ago if we didn’t make a new high. We still might get it. The market topped on December 28th, 3 months ago.
We gapped up big on the first of the month last month. Is that going to happen again to start April? 1929 saw the market make a high on the 1st day of the month (September) but it shouldn’t do that for some flower moon denouement. Still we’re a few days away from generating strong sell signals. And the market tends to hold up until the sell signals get generated.
We also have an easy monthly reversal set up.
The Dax has an extreme RSI so it should get a Nikkei like move from a few weeks ago. The SP 500 weekly RSI is at levels seen by the Nasdaq on March 13, 2000. TheNasdaq is lagging the SP. It didn’t make a new high with the SP yesterday.
Tomorrow is 5055 days from my special reveal date years ago. I’ve been looking at it as a special day for awhile. I hope I don’t jinx it.
The decline into late October hit the low on the Friday before the lunar eclipse. The Fed meeting decision occurred on November 1, three trading days after the eclipse so it could set up a high here or on Friday. All the recent turns have occurred on a Thursday or a Friday.
The lunar eclipse is Mondayish so it could hold up until then or Tuesday so we might have a flower moon denouement. .618 extension of the decline into October both in calendar and trading days targets Monday.
I appreciate the reference to God. My first comment here. I also appreciate your commentaries.
I looked at S&P PUT/CALL contracts. For the Dec 13 expire date no serious barriers exist until 3135. We’ll be there by the end of this week/beginning next week. Real deal starts on Dec 20th expire date between 3200-3250 strikes. Huge PUT contracts are sitting there. That’s a real BEAR sleeping there. If you touch him – you better to run away fast. So, 2 scenarios possible. 1) We make a double top near recent all time highs. 2) We make a FAKE breakout at 3200+ and then plummeting below 3000 fast.