Spot VIX down to 11.77 this a.m., that’s below both the May & June lows and the lowest reading since Dec 5th (11.53). The last 4 times the VIX ticked down to this mid-high 11’s level, it marked the low in the VIX to the very day:
09/19: 11.52
12/05: 11.53
05/22: 11.82
06/23: 11.93
Today: 11.77 so far
In each of these 4 instances, the VIX rallied sharply over the next 2-3 weeks, to: 31.06, 25.20, 15.74 & 20.05 respectively.
(Posted by another trader on another blog. Just thought it was worth reposting).
It might be a patriotic day tomorrow. Tomorrow is 17-7-6 in the non US dating format. Could be the reason the PATRIOTS have been winning all those Superbowls lately.
XXXXXXX–my original post didn’t make it through.
So far this week looks like the week of June 27th, 2011… and we seem to be tracking that time period fairly well on a week to week basis. The exact day to day movement isn’t exact of course but overall the pattern is similar.
So a lower high (like on July 7th, 2011) could happen again (like this Thursday of Friday) and then a drop next week, bounce back up some the last week of July and fall off a cliff starting the first week of August could be the plan?
That was what happened back in 2011 so I could see a similar pattern happen now in the coming weeks. Of course it might not be exact as it could just drop the next 2 weeks of July like suggested in this chart I got from someone I follow on Twitter.
If it follows that chart then it should bounce into the first 2 weeks of August and then rollover into a nasty crash wave down from there into early September. Of course we have the “possible false flag” day set in the 4th week of August which the gangsters could still make happen… and that should really make the market drop hard!
You all know their favorite saying… “Never let a good crisis go unused” (meaning the overbought market making a well needed correction). So doing a false flag in the middle of a correction is certainly taking advantage of a (technical crisis).
Very overbought now, but we bears know they can make the pig even fatter. Gaps are filled about everywhere now (except the new one’s created today on the upside of course). It’s obviously looking good for the bulls now. Still should pullback but from what level is the question?
If they gap up tomorrow I think it’s a small short for a pullback. If they open flat (or down) then we should rollover and pullback to that 2075-2085 area I think. But a strong gap up means a smaller pullback.
Google adds as much in one day as the market cap of 415 S&P 500 companies
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-17/does-chart-look-bullish-you
Spot VIX down to 11.77 this a.m., that’s below both the May & June lows and the lowest reading since Dec 5th (11.53). The last 4 times the VIX ticked down to this mid-high 11’s level, it marked the low in the VIX to the very day:
09/19: 11.52
12/05: 11.53
05/22: 11.82
06/23: 11.93
Today: 11.77 so far
In each of these 4 instances, the VIX rallied sharply over the next 2-3 weeks, to: 31.06, 25.20, 15.74 & 20.05 respectively.
(Posted by another trader on another blog. Just thought it was worth reposting).
NEIN!!! DAS IST MEIN LAND!!!! (not part of my original post)
Well, seasonality wise Friday, next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday are bearish. It’s certainly been one huge squeeze, that’s for sure.
Gaps up daily!
Fear decreasing BUT still in FEAR gauge side:
http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
Will have to say a little shocked with no more QE input!
REALLY looking forward to reading this weeks CFTC report!
It might be a patriotic day tomorrow. Tomorrow is 17-7-6 in the non US dating format. Could be the reason the PATRIOTS have been winning all those Superbowls lately.
XXXXXXX–my original post didn’t make it through.
So far this week looks like the week of June 27th, 2011… and we seem to be tracking that time period fairly well on a week to week basis. The exact day to day movement isn’t exact of course but overall the pattern is similar.
So a lower high (like on July 7th, 2011) could happen again (like this Thursday of Friday) and then a drop next week, bounce back up some the last week of July and fall off a cliff starting the first week of August could be the plan?
That was what happened back in 2011 so I could see a similar pattern happen now in the coming weeks. Of course it might not be exact as it could just drop the next 2 weeks of July like suggested in this chart I got from someone I follow on Twitter.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJ-FbzjUYAA_vB4.png:large
If it follows that chart then it should bounce into the first 2 weeks of August and then rollover into a nasty crash wave down from there into early September. Of course we have the “possible false flag” day set in the 4th week of August which the gangsters could still make happen… and that should really make the market drop hard!
You all know their favorite saying… “Never let a good crisis go unused” (meaning the overbought market making a well needed correction). So doing a false flag in the middle of a correction is certainly taking advantage of a (technical crisis).
Nothing to add here…. Extremely Overbought! Just waiting and watching for a top.
Moon soon to enter Cancer joining all of the heated activity in there.
SP rallies back to its 50 day average.
Very overbought now, but we bears know they can make the pig even fatter. Gaps are filled about everywhere now (except the new one’s created today on the upside of course). It’s obviously looking good for the bulls now. Still should pullback but from what level is the question?
If they gap up tomorrow I think it’s a small short for a pullback. If they open flat (or down) then we should rollover and pullback to that 2075-2085 area I think. But a strong gap up means a smaller pullback.