I’m trying something new! Been following CFTC report for a while, but now take it further.
Logging the Commercials futures weekly change and match them to the markets change. This is forecasting tracking and if anyone wants me to post weekly, I will!
Last week I Called for a flat week, which we had, Volatility was high!
Here is the start of my tracking project:
week ending 07/09/15….(this is the weekly change)
$DJI-flat +30
$SPX-flat 0
QQQ-flat -.30
futures 07/09/15 …….( this is the % greater on the Long or Short)
DJI- 2% short
S&P- 5% long
NASDAQ- 19% short
Russel- flat
Silver- 18% short
copper- 63% long
Gold- 30% short
us oil- 50% short
Europe oil- 8% short
I agree… it’s time to start layering in some shorts. The Greece news gave us this nice rally but I see nothing else to spark a higher move. Unless there’s a real fix over the weekend I just don’t see a big rally to new highs yet. http://rt.com/business/272926-greece-banks-leaks-collapse/
I am finally out of my long positions.LOL Made enough for nice meal at my favorite restaurant. Going to start nibbling at some shorts here for the Aug Sept time frame. I really do not care if the markets go up a few percentage points.
They certainly need to make it look bullish and closing at 2075-2080 sure would do it. I think they still have some final (final until they create a new deadline) meeting this Sunday about Greece, so a negative outcome there would definitely make Monday an ugly day.
So far this rally hasn’t broken the bearish momentum as there’s still no gap fill and the Greece news is out now, so unless they can drum up some other big news event I just don’t see what’s going to push the market up much more?
If this is all the bulls have then I don’t see any change in the forecast of a big move down coming starting next week. If some how they can rally up to close that gap around 2100 SPX then I’ll have to re-evaluate the forecast, but I just can’t see any more reasons to be long right now?
Maybe the old “bullish option expiration” week stat’s can get the rally started but it will have to be just on a technical basis that the short term charts are oversold (which they are), but the daily, weekly and monthly show no signs of bottoming yet and turning back up.
All in all it looks like SkyNet is doing what I expected it to do by closing above that 2060 SPX area to save the rising trendline of support on the weekly chart… which leaves everyone guessing again about what’s going to happen next week.
Externalization of the hierarchy https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/619806610182041600
Sure Doug… post away. What is your interpretation of what it says for this coming week?
I’m trying something new! Been following CFTC report for a while, but now take it further.
Logging the Commercials futures weekly change and match them to the markets change. This is forecasting tracking and if anyone wants me to post weekly, I will!
Last week I Called for a flat week, which we had, Volatility was high!
Here is the start of my tracking project:
week ending 07/09/15….(this is the weekly change)
$DJI-flat +30
$SPX-flat 0
QQQ-flat -.30
futures 07/09/15 …….( this is the % greater on the Long or Short)
DJI- 2% short
S&P- 5% long
NASDAQ- 19% short
Russel- flat
Silver- 18% short
copper- 63% long
Gold- 30% short
us oil- 50% short
Europe oil- 8% short
Have a GREAT weekend all!
$Doug OUT!
I agree… it’s time to start layering in some shorts. The Greece news gave us this nice rally but I see nothing else to spark a higher move. Unless there’s a real fix over the weekend I just don’t see a big rally to new highs yet. http://rt.com/business/272926-greece-banks-leaks-collapse/
I am finally out of my long positions.LOL Made enough for nice meal at my favorite restaurant. Going to start nibbling at some shorts here for the Aug Sept time frame. I really do not care if the markets go up a few percentage points.
July Stat’s https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CIWpZJJUAAEwHlO.jpg:large
Still looks similar to 10/03/2014 and 10/08/2014 too me. Until that gap is closed there’s no reason to get bullish.
They certainly need to make it look bullish and closing at 2075-2080 sure would do it. I think they still have some final (final until they create a new deadline) meeting this Sunday about Greece, so a negative outcome there would definitely make Monday an ugly day.
I am expecting 2075-80 close today. Next week we will see 2045 one more time. It may even go lower until 3rd week of July to test 2010 level.
So far this rally hasn’t broken the bearish momentum as there’s still no gap fill and the Greece news is out now, so unless they can drum up some other big news event I just don’t see what’s going to push the market up much more?
If this is all the bulls have then I don’t see any change in the forecast of a big move down coming starting next week. If some how they can rally up to close that gap around 2100 SPX then I’ll have to re-evaluate the forecast, but I just can’t see any more reasons to be long right now?
Maybe the old “bullish option expiration” week stat’s can get the rally started but it will have to be just on a technical basis that the short term charts are oversold (which they are), but the daily, weekly and monthly show no signs of bottoming yet and turning back up.
All in all it looks like SkyNet is doing what I expected it to do by closing above that 2060 SPX area to save the rising trendline of support on the weekly chart… which leaves everyone guessing again about what’s going to happen next week.