Perfectly timed news, when all the bears are trapped short! I used too fall for this years ago but I smelled it today and didn’t take any position today. Like I previously said, when this rally ends I see a 3 week decline starting like the July 22nd to August 8th of 2011 period.
Ahh… the market is just like a TV show with typical “perfect timed” scary moments, walk in and catch someone cheating, ..and the winner is (commercial break), slap stick stupid jokes, and of course the brief nudity scenes. Who’s directing this show I wonder… Steven Spielberg, George Lucas, Stanley Kubrick, Robert Zemeckis, or James Cameron? Feels more like a Quentin Tarantino show with all the blood from the bulls recently and bears blood bath Friday.
The market is going up nicely afterhours now from some positive Greece news. This is the final squeeze up I think. If they don’t fill the gap around 2100 area and just run out of steam in the 2080-2090 SPX area then I think it’s a short over the weekend. That “could” be the plan? Something positive about Greece on Friday and then change it back to something negative on Sunday when the market is closed.
However, if the Sunday meeting is canceled and this Friday agreement is the last meeting needed then they will probably turn this rally into a multi-day event to close the 2100 gap and go up even higher into a Tuesday-Thursday top next week. Don’t know which yet? Just have to see what happens Friday first. But this is the bear squeeze I wanted to see happen first before any 3 week drop starts.
I think we will go down first to retest the 1820 SPX prior low and probably bounce there. Don’t know if that will be the end of the first wave or not but it could be… makes sense actually. If it hits by the end of July then we should bounce back up into the middle of August and then we should see the next big wave down into early September. That one should be in the 1700 area on the SPX.
Then we could have some wild up and down moves until the end of September for the wave 4 up and finally a flush down to retest the 2000 and 2007 highs around 1576 SPX area for the final wave 5 down. After that it’s up, up and away the rest of the year. That’s what makes the most sense from a technical point of view.
They need to close the SPX at or above 2060 this Friday to save the rising trendline from the 2011 low on the weekly chart. So I’m expecting some kind of ABC or 5 wave pattern today and tomorrow with the market saving that level by the close.
Therefore anything over that level up to 2085 area appears to be a good short. Of course if they some how close that gap down from 6/29 (around 2100 SPX) then they could turn the market back up. But odds are low that they will be able to succeed there with such huge downward pressure from the monthly and weekly charts.
Perfectly timed news, when all the bears are trapped short! I used too fall for this years ago but I smelled it today and didn’t take any position today. Like I previously said, when this rally ends I see a 3 week decline starting like the July 22nd to August 8th of 2011 period.
Ahh… the market is just like a TV show with typical “perfect timed” scary moments, walk in and catch someone cheating, ..and the winner is (commercial break), slap stick stupid jokes, and of course the brief nudity scenes. Who’s directing this show I wonder… Steven Spielberg, George Lucas, Stanley Kubrick, Robert Zemeckis, or James Cameron? Feels more like a Quentin Tarantino show with all the blood from the bulls recently and bears blood bath Friday.
The market is going up nicely afterhours now from some positive Greece news. This is the final squeeze up I think. If they don’t fill the gap around 2100 area and just run out of steam in the 2080-2090 SPX area then I think it’s a short over the weekend. That “could” be the plan? Something positive about Greece on Friday and then change it back to something negative on Sunday when the market is closed.
However, if the Sunday meeting is canceled and this Friday agreement is the last meeting needed then they will probably turn this rally into a multi-day event to close the 2100 gap and go up even higher into a Tuesday-Thursday top next week. Don’t know which yet? Just have to see what happens Friday first. But this is the bear squeeze I wanted to see happen first before any 3 week drop starts.
Thats quite a BIG drop.
Either way Monday could be very ugly.
LOL Or, they kick the can down the road again
Greece sets another deadline for this Sunday. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33437797
Bad results should start the big move down Monday.
I think we will go down first to retest the 1820 SPX prior low and probably bounce there. Don’t know if that will be the end of the first wave or not but it could be… makes sense actually. If it hits by the end of July then we should bounce back up into the middle of August and then we should see the next big wave down into early September. That one should be in the 1700 area on the SPX.
Then we could have some wild up and down moves until the end of September for the wave 4 up and finally a flush down to retest the 2000 and 2007 highs around 1576 SPX area for the final wave 5 down. After that it’s up, up and away the rest of the year. That’s what makes the most sense from a technical point of view.
How far of a drop are you talking about here?
They need to close the SPX at or above 2060 this Friday to save the rising trendline from the 2011 low on the weekly chart. So I’m expecting some kind of ABC or 5 wave pattern today and tomorrow with the market saving that level by the close.
Therefore anything over that level up to 2085 area appears to be a good short. Of course if they some how close that gap down from 6/29 (around 2100 SPX) then they could turn the market back up. But odds are low that they will be able to succeed there with such huge downward pressure from the monthly and weekly charts.
I think today/tomorrow is the last fakeout move up before a 3 week drop. Max I can see up is about 2080 ES Futures.