Talk about a boring day! It seems that everyone took the day off. Once again, light volume and no economic news allowed the market to push higher. Today was the lightest trading day of the year for the SPY, with only 118 million shares traded. End of month window dressing for the money managers, and light volume spells up, up, and away!
Also, from a technical point of view, the market has major support at 1040, and held that support last Friday. The next resistance level up is 1053 and 1065. The market hit an intraday high of 1065 today, just as I thought might happen, as I posted on my weekend post.
We might go sideways to slightly up until the end of the month. If we continue up, that 1080 should hold the advance again. I'm really not expecting much the next couple of days. Flat to up would be my best guess. Once the month is closed out, then I expect a down move the first few days.
As long as that 1040 area holds, which I expect it too, then one more push up to try and capture that 1100-1108 gap fill area. It will probably be only an intraday peak, if it gets there? That should be around the turn date of October 5th-7th.
So, I'm that if the next couple of days chop around and stay at 1065, then we could drop to 1040 the following few days, and finally a big push up to one more high (It may only go to 1080 again for the final high, if this scenario plays out).
The second scenario is that we gain 6-9 point each day until Wednesday, which should be hit that 1080 area again (note: that's an intraday high, the closing price shouldn't be more then 107.65 on SPY). If this happens, then a fall the next few days to support at 1060-1065 area would be reasonable, then one last lunge up to close that gap at 1100-1108. (Again, that should be around that 5th-7th date).
I know everyone's waiting for the big down move, (I know I am), and they think that it's ready to roll over now... but they (aka Goldman Sucks, the PPT, whoever!) have all the money they need, and if they want to close that gap from last year in October, 2008... they WILL!
I'm trying to be patience as I've lost too much money in the last few months shorting this market on every high that those crack head bulls pushed it too. I shorted in May, June, July, August, but not anymore... until they snort that last line of cocaine up their nose!
Who's feeding them all that coke anyway? Is it Tony Montana over at Slope? Somebody pull out the machine guns and stop this insanity!
Red
(If Tony reads this... just kidding!)
Hi Red,
thanks for your reply
Regardless of the SPX level projected for Oct7th-
IT should show some obvious technical deficit at that time
1080 to 1108, sure why not, but the actual level matters not.
According to natural energy, OCT 12th and or part of 13 has some potential for another type of OVERTHROW such as Spt 23rd before the BIG declines begin.
in OCT 2007 it took 4 days at the 14k level to finally give way.
WE might get something similar next month also.
Yes , I think they are finally set to head to my projection of spx 1000 by Friday at 10am. Light volume yesterday was due to lack of participation from my bretheren who were celebrating Yom Kippur.
Jay
Hi Red,
thanks for your reply
Regardless of the SPX level projected for Oct7th-
IT should show some obvious technical deficit at that time
1080 to 1108, sure why not, but the actual level matters not.
According to natural energy, OCT 12th and or part of 13 has some potential for another type of OVERTHROW such as Spt 23rd before the BIG declines begin.
in OCT 2007 it took 4 days at the 14k level to finally give way.
WE might get something similar next month also.
Yes , I think they are finally set to head to my projection of spx 1000 by Friday at 10am. Light volume yesterday was due to lack of participation from my bretheren who were celebrating Yom Kippur.
Jay