The market traded slightly higher and ended basically flat again today. Â The SPY had only 91 million shares traded today, which made it the lightest day of the year. Â I'm still expecting a small pullback to 1103-1105 spx area, before another move higher. Â With this light volume any down days shouldn't last more then one or two days at the most.
As I said previously, I'm expecting the 1126 SPX/113.00 SPY to be hit before the end of the year. Â Next year should bring some selling in the first few months. Â After that, it's still undetermined. Â We could simply rally back up and put in a lower high, and then fall hard over the next year or so... all the way down to 3,000-4,000 Dow. Â I am expecting that to be the final target... when is the main question?
The other scenario is that we only fall the usual 10% down in January and Feburary, and then rally up one more time to the 61.8% Fib level (taken from the 2007 high to the March 2009 low). Â Either scenario is possible. Â We are currently at the 50% level, and could simply roll over next year and continue down all year... or only dip down 10%, and then rally up during the summer.
That would delay the ultimate low of 3,000-4,000 Dow until 2013-2014, instead of 2010-2011. Â Either way, we are still in a Bear market... not a bull market. Â But, that doesn't mean that I won't go long from time to time. Â I'll take whatever the market gives me, and right now... that's about Nothing!
Red
