The FP on the SPY of 586.86 was successfully hit and pierced yesterday, so that should be it on the upside. But I don't think we are going to just fall off a cliff here as there's a lot of support below that will need to be hit, bounced from, hit again, bounce again, rinse and repeat. It means we could see the rest of May doing a lot of chop, and then in June we should start down steady to retest the lows.

Again, I don't know if we go through it hard, double bottom or just make a higher low? I just have to give it more time to let the first series of waves unfold and get a better feel for what could happen. Short term, we should pullback in the coming few days to retest the week long support in the 5650-5700 zone. This might drag into next week, and then we go back up again for a lower high the following week. I don't see any good setup for a short now as we need to allow the market to get the series of wave 1's down and 2's up until support get much weaker and we get a wave 3 of 3 setup form.

This could take a couple of weeks. Yesterday is kind of like the 3/25 high, that pulled back and went back up into the 4/2 lower high, which then setup the big drop that was a wave 3 of some degree. I think we are going to do something similar but it should take 2 weeks this time around, whereas back then it was only about 1 week. Basically, the last week of this month is where we should see that bounce high like the 4/2 high. Nothing more to add as we just have to be patient to allow the pattern to setup.

Have an blessed day.

The market just grinned sideways yesterday after a gap up at the open. It got really close to the FP of 586.86 through out the day but never hit it. After hours it got even closer. It's looking like it might hit it today, and with the CPI out before the open that would be an easy move up to hit from the current closing price from yesterday.

But, if for any strange reason, it does not hit it and it goes down instead, then it's the ol' FP trick again that it's done in the past many times. It will get close to a FP (up or down) on the first attempt and fall shy of hitting it. Then it will go the other direct for awhile (weeks, months?) and come back later to hit it. While I don't think it will do that this time around (because it's so close) I can't rule it out.

Many traders these days see these fake prints just like I do and they wait for them to be hit to take a position. So the market just might trick them and head south without hitting them. If this happens you can just sit back and wait for the end of this month for the FP to get hit on the expected move back up, which then will be followed by a large drop into mid-June, which should take out the current low but that's unknown of course.

The two FP's of 483.07 and 483.62 from last year were hit on that decline (and pierced) so those FP's are fulfilled, so there's no clues on the downside of where the market might go to? I don't know if it's going to be a higher low or lower low but the "time window" for it is mid-June. We'll have to just see where the market is at when we get there I guess. For now those my lean is that we hit (and pierce) the 586.86 FP (in regular hours) and then rollover for the A wave (or wave 1) of the next leg down. It should be over with by the end of this week and then we do the B wave up (or wave 2) into the end of May. I still think about a 50% retracement is possible but it's going to take some bad news to cause it at this point it seems.

Have an blessed day.

It went a little higher yesterday, which doesn't change anything. We should still go down next week as covered in yesterday post. This is just the typical bullish to flat bias that seems to follow every FOMC day, where the Thursday and Friday afterwards don't do much of anything, and typically hold the current price or float a little higher. It's always the following week where the real move happens, which could be up or down, but in our case it should be down as we rallied up into it. As for today, I don't have much opinion, but I don't see anything big on the upside. We should start down into next week, and at least fill that gap from 4/22.

Have a great weekend.

Lot's of moves up and down intraday yesterday to go nowhere. But I think we have topped now and we should start down into next week to start the wave 1 inside of the C wave, which means we topped this past Friday, May 2nd for the B wave rally from the 4/7 low (the bottom and end of the A wave). I've changed the wave count a little as I don't think we have bottomed yet and will make a lower low into mid-June, which should be the end of the C wave down.

It should unfold in 5 waves and the move down into mid-late next week should be the wave 1 inside the C. Then we go back up into late May for the wave 2, and finally we drop in the wave 3, 4, and 5 into mid-June where we should reach at least 4600 I think, maybe a little more? That entire move from the all time high will complete a larger ABC down, inside an even larger wave 4, which leaves a 5 wave rally up for the final wave 5 into August probably. That should be where we hit the big upside FP on the SPY of 655.66. I suspect that the 586.86 FP will be hit on the first move up from the June low. Just a guess there, so don't hold me to it.

Have an blessed day.

Today is the day. Big move coming after the FOMC today. I still think we go down and down hard... but I still think there's a good chance that we'll see a squeeze up first, which should hit the FP on the SPY of 586.86, and then we reverse. That seems crazy as it's quite a good move higher to reach that level, but we seen more then that on 4/9, which was almost 700 points!

So there's no reason to think we can't do 200-250 points today after the meeting. If you are a bear you want to see the squeeze so that current shorts are taken out, as that will open the door for a bigger drop with not many shorts left.

I'd prefer to see the move up "front run" the meeting so that it can disappoint and the market can then reverse hard right afterwards, but the more common pattern is to continue then choppy range into it, and then make a big move.

Now... there's also equal odds that they don't run up to the FP first and then drop.  I've been in this spot before where I was looking to short the hitting of an upside FP but it never came and I missed the move.  So I have to be aware that the high might already be in.  There's no way to know the "when" part for any FP hitting.  Only that they do hit at some point.  Ideally we hit it going into the meeting, but so far the market is still in the same chippy range here before the open as it waits on the meeting.

Nothing more to add here, so I'll keep it short and end it here.  Good luck to all the traders too.  I hope you all catch the big move coming.

Have an blessed day.

A whole lot of nothing yesterday as the market chops sideways waiting on the FOMC meeting tomorrow. I do not know if they rally into the meeting and collapse afterwards, or rally after the meeting to "hit the stops", and the collapse... but everything tells me we will hit the upside FP on the SPY of 586.86 (around 5900 ES) before we rollover.

It's coming, and it's a massive shorting opportunity in my humble opinion. I still think it will be a "fall off a cliff" type drop into the end of next week. But, I do think that after this flush happens we'll see a move up on Friday the 15th to put in some kind of bottoming tail candle on the weekly chart. All that is needed (in my opinion) is to take out the prior low to "hit the stops" on the bulls. Then we should explode higher in a massive rally into July, with the 4th being the possible date where we could see the 655.66 FP hit on the SPY.

I pray that the video I posted yesterday is wrong, as I don't want to see innocent people die, but we've had floods here in America recently that were really bad (The North Carolina one last year the the recent Kentucky one), and fires that are truly epic in California... plus Hurricanes in Florida last year as well. This doesn't account for the one's in other countries of course. I do believe we are experiencing "Earth Changes", but it's not from "Climate Change" that the deep state keeps pushing. It's Biblical in my opinion. This video below explains it...

Black Star Causing Change of Biblical Proportions – Weston Warren

There are many other signs that suggest we are in the end times, and Jesus in coming soon. There's never been a more important time then now to get saved and accept Jesus as your savior like I have. It's going to get really bad in the coming few years, and if the map is correct then I pray those living in the areas that might disappear are able to go to another state that's not affected before it happens. Moving is out of the question for most, but many have family and friends in other places, and should get prepared. The chart talked about in the video is below.

The World Future Map

Future Map Of North America

Have an blessed day.

Geccko... email me so I can setup an account for you.  I had to install a captcha to stop all the auto bots from spamming me with daily fake comment.  The system caught them so they never posted and stayed as "pending" but I'm tired of deleting them daily.  Just need for you to setup an account and you can post again.

As of the close Friday, the ES is around 200 points away from the FP on the SPY at 586.86, and with the FOMC coming up this Wednesday I have to think we will top right into the meeting and hit (and pierce) the FP at the same time.

Then we fall off a cliff hard and bottom into around the 15th of May where we retest the low (and pierce though by a hundred points most likely), which then should have everyone calling for the top to be in and that the market is in a recession. Bears will load up massively short and the market will squeeze all the way up to the 655.66 FP on the SPY into the 4th of July.

Sadly, there are forecasts/dreams/predictions out there that says Japan will get hit with a Tsunami on July 5th and that it will be 3 times bigger then the March 11th, 2011 one. It is expected to kill millions and 2 new land masses will rise up out the sea from the plates shifting under the ocean. Needless to say that "if" we hit the upside FP just beforehand that horrible event to Japan will cause a massive crash in the stock market in Japan (Nikki) and of course affect the rest of the world too.

I hate to be so "doom and gloom" but there are others out that that say this will happen. My focus will be on the 655.66 FP of course, and I pray that the good people in Japan do not get hit with this event. These world-wide disasters are a sign to me that we are in the end times. Some think Jesus will return around 2030-2031... no one knows the day or the hour of course but that period "might" be something Bible Scholars can estimate. I pray that all my readers say a pray for Japan as I really don't want anyone to die like that. I'm way off target here in this post but I just had to get it off my chest, so to speak.

Back to the market, this is probably the simplest forecast I've done in awhile. No fancy wave count, just a move up to the 586.86 FP into this Wednesday, a big drop intl the 15th, and then a massive rally into July 4th where the FP of 655.66 will be hit.

That FP came out on 12/16/2024 and you can see the obvious 666 code in it.  It's very likely to be the high before we crash into October probably... we'll see.

Have an "extra" blessed day.

I think we topped yesterday for the final 5th wave's to end large wave 1 up. I say that because the gap filled on the VIX from 4/2-4/3, so there's not much left on the upside that I can see. We hit the 61.8% retrace level too, so again, the market is running on fumes here. But, I don't think we start down hard today.

It's Friday so we'll probably hold up with light volume and not go down much, or up much. I still think that next week we get the wave A down and B up, leaving the wave C down into the following week to complete large wave 2 down. Most likely we bottom the week of OPEX, and I'd lean toward it bottoming mid-week so that it can reverse back up hard into the end of the week to make all the put holders expire worthless.

Plus, they will want a nice bottoming tail candle put in on that weekly chart to support the big squeeze afterwards. This suggests that the FOMC next Wednesday will disappoint and fail to give the market what it wants (a rate cut). That's just speculation on my part but if we get an A down and B up into that FOMC I have to think we'll take afterwards in the C wave. It will fool the most people I think as everyone seems to think the Fed will cut soon. Maybe they don't? I don't know what the reason will be but something will happen to cause the drop and we won't worry about the reason as that's not important.

Have a great weekend.

Well, the market is still grinding higher. It never an exact science on these turn windows. I still think we will revisit the low before we blast off to new high all time highs. But it's taking longer then I expected to give up and rollover it seems.

I will say that since the month of April has now closed out with a long bottoming tail candle odds are quite strong that the coming move down will not be a blow out deep new low. Odds are it will be a slightly higher low, or just a hair low... like a double bottom? It should be deep enough to scare all the bulls out and suck in the bears looking for a crash. But it won't be, and instead it will turn back up in a wave 3 most likely with the pullback being the large wave 2, and the current rally the large wave 1.

On the short term we are probably in a small degree wave 5, inside a medium degree wave 5, all inside a large degree wave 1 up. Once finished we should see an ABC down for the wave 2 and the A and B waves should start soon, with the C wave likely being next week from the looks of things. Here's a chart...

The moves have been very hard to figure out, but I think this is the most likely plan going forward the next week or so.

Have a blessed day.

(No post on Wednesday, April 30th 2025... nothing has changed).

Tic Toc, Tic Toc... the calm before the storm was yesterday. It was like going up a roller coaster slowly the last few weeks and we've finally reached the top. I don't see much more time left before we rollover to start the next leg down. Nothing has changed since last week. I'm still looking for a retest of the low in the coming days, or into next week.

I will add that I would prefer the market rolls over slowly at first so that the bears don't try to short it, nor the bulls want to exit but instead they buy as it's going down.  Alternatively we just get a big gap down and go where bulls are trapped long and bears are waiting on a bounce that never comes.

Have a blessed day.

This is the week that should be a "panic week", but what would cause it is not known. It doesn't have to be anything really as they will find something later to blame it on. And last week also played out like I expected with the market grinding higher on Friday to put the bears to sleep. I don't have anything more to add as I've covered it many times last week. Get ready for a nasty move down this week.

Have a blessed day.

Yesterday we rallied up nicely to bang on down of the 4/9 high, and finally pierced through it afterhours. Today should be a nothing day where we don't go too much further up or down. It should be a day that puts the bears to sleep and keeps the bulls in their longs over the weekend as they wait for the big breakout.

But I don't get the feeling that is coming. I'm thinking we are done on the upside and will rollover next week to start the next leg down to the double bottom and slightly lower low. I posted the following in the chatroom yesterday, and it's still my thoughts...

"The way the market is acting now I think tomorrow will be the top of this rally. Not too much further, but enough to keep the bulls long over the weekend thinking we are going to breakout next week. Maybe we see another 100 points, but not 200-400, which would enter my 5700-5900 zone. They will stop shy of it and keep everyone on the hook looking for that zone to short, but it won't reach it. 2:15 PM"

And... "Today (and the past several weeks) like the pattern going into 10/16/2022. The next day went a hair higher but didn't take out the 10/12/2022 high. The recent high on 4/9 was 5528, so we could repeat that 2022 pattern where we fall shy of taking that high out by a few points, or we do take it out by a few points, but nothing major. 2:21 PM"

Today is the "the day" in my humble opinion for the bulls to breakout nicely and get that squeeze up another 200-300 points. But I just don't think it's going to happen. The market is in a "hope mode" about Trump and the Tariff's but I don't think any deal is coming anytime soon. I think it will be in May, which will think spark the big rally, and the final low. Next week should be very bearish, and even if we get that squeeze it won't last. I'm officially a bear today.

Have a blessed day.

Getting really close now to a breakout squeeze. I don't know if it happen into this Friday or drags out into early next week but once it happens it should get every bear out of the market and all the bulls calling for the bottom to be in... but it's not. There's another move down coming in early May where the low should be tested and take out a little, and it might drag into mid-May, but really should be "mostly" over with by the second week most likely.

Like maybe we bottom on the 5th-7th, then do some quick up's and down's until the 13th possibly, and then we see the really rally start. For comparison of what I'm thinking is possible we can look at the 2/27/2008 date, which could be like the current high now. But I think we breakout and not just double top like back then did whereas that date was the same as 2/4/2008 basically.

I think we take out our current 4/9/2025 high and then we drop like back then from that 2/27/2008 high to the 3/11/2008 low. That might be like May 5th-7th next month? Back then that was a slightly lower low, which chopped at the bottom until 3/18/2008 before it broke out and rallied hard.

That could be like this coming May 13th or so? Now I don't expect our current market to follow what happened afterwards as I don't think the market tops until later this year. I fully expect to see a new high after the coming low, so I'm only pointing out that chop period as possible between the 5th of May up to maybe the 13th or so. Then we squeeze hard into July/August with 655.66 on the SPY as a likely target. For now though, we still have until next Monday or Tuesday, at the latest, for this breakout squeeze to happen I'd love to see it top tomorrow but we might need some kind of trigger (news event) to get it going, and predicting when that happens (or if it happens?) is impossible.

Have a blessed day.

We appear to be starting the final 5 wave move up for the C wave, which will end the larger B wave. Once done we'll start the larger C wave down, which again should be next week. Below is a chart of the SPX showing the wave count.

I still don't know how high we will go but 5700 to 5900 is very possible. It should be high enough to have everyone calling for the low to be in, but it's not. We have another plunge coming next week.

Have a blessed day.

Ok, the down move yesterday was what I was thinking would happen after the 22nd/23d high, but it started early. This means that turn date, which a top of some kind should have happened, has been skipped (or just came early). Next turn window where a top "should" appear is the 29th (give or take a day or so).

Since the last several turn dates have been "front run" by 1-2 days this coming one could also appear early. This opens the door for a high at the end of this week. I spoken about the 586.86 FP on the SPY (about 5900 ES/SPX) several times lately as a possible target high for the coming squeeze before the drop, but the next major resistance zone is around 5700 from a falling trendline, and I really don't think we'll get through it on the first attempt.

I think that zone will be the target high for rally, whenever it comes. It could drag into next week but if we see it this week, like into this Friday, it's a short in my opinion. Now, there's also the "wild card" chance that we could bottom into the end of this week, or into the 29th, like 4700 or so, and then the turn dates will have flipped and that will be a strong buy. I don't think that's going to happen but anything is possible. Currently I still think we have a strong rally coming first, with 5700 as my target, and then the drop.

Have a blessed day.

Time is running out for the bulls as the 22nd/23rd is the turn window where the top should happen. Then we should rollover again with next week being the most bearish. Again, I don't have a clue on how low we could go as while I'm only looking for a double bottom there are others (who are quite good) that are looking for a crash like move, which they have targets from 3000-4100, but anything that big would certainly look and feel like a crash. I'm just looking for 4700-4800, but I'm certainly open to something bigger, which I'm sure there will be some kind of "event" to blame it on. What that is... I don't know?

But... I think there's more upside coming first.  I still think we get some kind of squeeze first to take out the stops on the bears.  Anywhere from 4600-4800 would be the zone I would be looking for as that would get everyone bullish again.  Give me that rally and I'm a bear again.  And it should happen this week.  While the turn window is just that "a window", it's not an exact science, but it should be close.

Next week the 29th/30th are where a bounce can happen for another top of some kind.  I'm thinking we get the squeeze early this week to complete the B wave, then we drop some into this Friday for the wave 1 of the bigger C wave down (or 5th wave?).  Then next week, into the 30th (most likely, due to the importance of closing the month out with some kind of bottoming tail), we get the wave 2 bounce.  Then from the 1st of May, into as late as the 13th, we get the entire drop for the larger C wave (or 5th wave?).

My thoughts are that if we do NOT get the squeeze then we'll drop in a 5th wave, but if we get the rally to 5600-5800 then it's a larger B wave up, not wave 4... therefore the next big drop will be a C wave, not a wave 5.

Next week is going to be super crazy I think as if we get a top this week (the squeeze) then early next week we should see the wave 2 up bounce for the C down, and that rally could fool many into thinking all is good because it might retrace 80-90% of the drop for the wave 1?  If so, not many will see the wave 3 down late next week inside the C wave.  I lean toward the 30th closing out above the current low by some decent amount, like 5200+ roughly, but again... it could reach 5500, 5600 or more?  Then the wave 3 down starts on the 1st of May.

The bottom line here is that: 1: we need a squeeze to 5600-5800, 2: this week is when it should happen, but not a guarantee, 3: a wave 1 down inside a C wave should follow into the end of the week ("if" we get the squeeze?), 4: a bounce for a wave 2 should top into the 29th/30th (again... if we top this week), and 5: the biggest drop  should start around May 1st, which will be the larger C wave.

One wild card is that the two periods where a top could happen (22nd/23rd or 29th/30th) could flip... meaning we could see the high on the second date, not the first.  While I'm lending (actually, just wishing and hoping) to get the high this week, I could be totally off and we just chop this week and hit the upside target zone next week.  Patience is the key here as I'm just not ready to short until I see a final squeeze first to take out the bears.

Last, just something to note... there's an FOMC meeting on May 6th-7th, which could be a bottom?  And the Legatus Jubilee ends on May 2nd, so while this could chop around into as late as the 13th of May I think the lowest low could be between the 2nd to 7th, with just a retest of that low the following week.

Have a blessed day.

The small pullback yesterday was pretty much what I was thinking would happen as the short term charts were quite overbought.  I'm not looking for much today as we close out the week. Next week I'm still thinking we'll get some kind of move up out of this range. I don't know how high, as rallying to the FP on the SPY might be asking too much. We shall see.

If there's no positive news over the weekend (tariff deal?) then I have to think we will not breakout and make a big squeeze to the FP, which will actually be the trickiest move as many people are looking for some higher move up to short at.  Maybe we don't get it?  It's never easy to nail the high, or even the day where the high should happen on.

If today rallies back up to another lower high then the current high of this rally (5500 zone) that might be all we get?  It's really a tough call here as if I take a short today I'll be risking something positive to happen over the weekend to cause a gap up and squeeze.  If I don't take a short, and we get no positive news, then the odds for a move down Monday will be high.  Not sure how to trade it?

Nothing more to add. I'm just waiting patiently as the end of this rally should be either today, or as late as Monday or Tuesday.  I don't have a crystal ball, but if we get a retest of the recent 5500 high by the close today I'll be thinking hard on short it.

Have a very Happy Easter.

A whole lot of nothing yesterday and it's looking like today will be the same. It's not looking good for a breakout from this bull flag forming to happen by tomorrow, so I'm now thinking they will used the 3 day weekend to release some good news to cause a panic move up for a squeeze on Monday, instead of down. The really deep drop should still happen in the week of the 28th, so while I would love to see a final squeeze up tomorrow it's looking less likely. No squeeze = no short, for me at least.

There's the FP on the SPY at 586.86 from several weeks back, and while that seems like a crazy level to hit, it's very possible if some really good news comes out to cause it. Since the "putting on of tariff's" have been blamed for the big drop, any "tariff deal" should cause the opposite. Maybe Trump gets a deal with China over the weekend... who knows what it is? But we have an obvious "cup and handle" pattern that's forming now, so a breakout could easily take us up to the FP on the SPY, and that's roughly 5900 or so. We'll see.

Have a blessed day.

Chop yesterday as expected. I expect more of the same the rest of this week as again, it's a holiday week with light volume, so "if" all goes as planned we'll grind up into a Thursday high to make everyone feel like the bottom is in, but it's not. There's a revisit of the low coming and the week that it should be the worst is the week of the 28th, but it should start next week.

Have a blessed day.