No sell off yesterday but instead a non-stop squeeze. I don't think the low is in but at this point it's looking like they plan on hitting the FP on the SPY at 486.86 before the next pullback happens. I really thought that FP would be hit in early April but I guess I was wrong? We did hit the 200 day SMA yesterday, so on the short term we should see a pullback from it. While I'd love to see it turn into a big dump most likely it won't be, and instead will just be a typical 38.2% retrace from the entire move up from Fridays low. At this point the only thing that could bring this market down hard is some "event" to trigger a big flush.

Have a blessed day.

I'm still looking for a retest of the current low and a pierce through it by some amount to happen this week. The market loves to tease both sides and then do a fast 1-2 day move, and that's exactly what could happen this week as well. The flush to make a lower low could happen any day this week and be finished in a day and a half.

This morning we have an unexpected breakout.  I did not see this happening, but possibly they plan on going to the new FP on the SPY first?  I was looking for it to be hit in the first week of April, after we make a low.  Bears need to reverse this rally asap... like today.  They need to make the daily candle have a topping tail on it if they plan on making a new low this week.

Nothing more to add here as I need to see happen by the close to see if the plans have changed or not.  Do the topping tail and the bears are still good.  If not, the the 586.86 is likely the target.

Have a blessed day.

Choppy light volume day yesterday, and with this week being a Quad Witching OPEX today could be the same. Overall it looks like the market is just waiting for the next reason to make a big move. While that upside FP on the SPY could be hit it's not supported in the cycles, which are bearish into the end of this month, and while we might just make a "higher low", double bottom basically, I still think they will pierce through the current low so a "Head" can be made for a likely "Head and Shoulders" pattern, where the late April low is a higher one that makes the "Right Shoulder". I still think the new FP posted yesterday will be the early April high, which will probably be a wave 1 up of some degree. And that means the expected higher low into late April will be the wave 2 pullback. That will setup a big rally for a wave 3, 4 and 5 into an August "blow off" top. Maybe that's the one that hits another FP I have that would be 6500+ on the SPX. Short term it's looking like the market is setting up a series of wave 1's down and wave 2's up before a nasty wave 3 happens sometime next week inside the final wave 5 down.

Have a great weekend.

So far, so good. The rally yesterday appears to have put in the top for the bounce of wave 4, and we should be starting wave 5 down next. I'll keep this update short as I've already covered everything in this weeks' posts. I will add that there's a new FP on the SPY yesterday, which I posted it on X already. I think it's the high for the next bounce in early-mid April, and that we go down first as planned. Here's that fake print...

Have a blessed day.

Today is the big day, and yesterday did "mostly" what I expected. We did get the pullback, which does look like an ABC, and the C down had 5 waves inside it. But it went a little deeper then I would have like to see, and there was no move back up into the close, so I have to remain open for another possibility, which is that the wave 4 up bounce ended at the recent high and it will not unfold in an ABC up, where the C wave would make a high up around 5800 or so (5850 new ES contract).

Instead the the next move up will make a lower high and would be the wave 2 bounce inside the wave 5 down. The move down yesterday would be the wave 1 in the wave 5 down. Today might be very tricky, so what I'll be looking for is to see what happen prior to 2pm EST, as "if" we get a strong move up, and then a pullback, I'll be open again to the C wave up inside wave 4 as covered yesterday.  (Below is yesterdays more bullish wave count again)...

But if we kinda of chop around waiting on the Fed, I'll then look for the wave 4 as being finished yesterday and a lower high for a wave 2 up inside a 5 down as being the wave count. I'll then look for a short as the move down afterwards would be a nasty wave 3 inside a 5, and that will be a strong one. The "trick" for SkyNet will be to suck all the bulls into thinking it's a breakout, so the wave 2 up (if this is the correct wave count) might retrace all the way back to within a point or so of the Monday high, and it might go right into the close. It will be tricky, that's for sure. But if we don't see a clean breakout move I'm a bear again and will look to short the retrace lower high.

Have a blessed day.

Well, the ES is rolling now from the March contract to the June one, and on my charts it already happened yesterday, so there's a 50+ point spread between it and the SPX cash now. This makes it confusing sometimes as I chart the ES but trade the SPX. I'm still looking for a pullback today, but I don't think we will see very much. Probably 30-40 points, but certainly not a move back down to the FP on the SPY of 551.49 as discussed yesterday.

The market is of course waiting on the FOMC tomorrow, so a slight pullback today is normal. We could see some very tricky moves after the 2pm meeting tomorrow, where we might drop at first to shake out the longs and then squeeze back up afterwards to reach the 5800 zone (SPX), which will be 5850+ on the new ES contract.

I expect it to be tricky as after the rally ends, which could carry into Thursday (depends on how much of a squeeze we get) the next move down into next week should hit that FP on the SPY at minimum, if not take out the low. I'm just in a "wait and see" mode right now as I can't take any position at this current spot. I need it higher to short or lower to go long.

Have a blessed day.

This week the most important event is the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. There are different paths the market can take but with the new FP on the SPY of 551.49 last Friday we at least know the pullback low price. The big question though is "when"? I posted an additional chart on X Friday showing a possible Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern that might form. That chart is below...

I think that is still very possible and likely to play out. Resistance overhead for today is around 5700 on the ES, and "if" we hit it today I think we can pullback into Tuesday (or early Wednesday) to hit the downside FP on the SPY and make the Right Shoulder. That's roughly around 5550 on the ES, and would be the perfect spot to suck in the last bear before a strong rally up to around 5800, and that probably will be from something the Fed says at the FOMC meeting.

It's possible I guess that we hit the target prior to the meeting but I lean toward it happening after the meeting, which is 2pm EST as usual. A one day squeeze into the close to 5800 to shake out the bears and lure in the bulls thinking the downside is over would be the perfect trick on both bulls and bears.

Then Thursday we rollover again and start the move down into next Monday or Tuesday for the low, which at minimum should be a double bottom but most likely we we take out the current low by some decent amount to hit the stops on the bulls trapped long. Meaning 5400 or even 5300 is possible (5440 and 5325 are support zones).

This is what I see for this week. As always the market loves to trick you, so my goal will just be to look for a hit of the downside FP on the SPY and if it happens before the FOMC I know there's a strong rally after it. Now if we rally to 5800 first then the downside FP would be the target for the expected pullback into the 24th/25th, but I don't lean that way. I just have to be open to whatever the market throws at me.

Have a blessed day.

Nothing has changed since yesterdays post. I'm not expecting another big drop until after we get a one day wonder squeeze, and that should still happen next week sometime. Currently we are in a bottoming formation for the first leg down, which could be called the A wave. The move up next will be the B wave, and I'm sure it will subdivide into an ABC, which the A could have 5 waves, the B 3 waves, and the C 5 waves, or a 535 rally up for the B, which should top mid next week. Then we should get the C wave down to the 5300 or lower level to end this correction for now.

Have a great weekend.

The market held support yesterday, so we have likely put in a temporary bottom. I think we are entering a period that is similar to 7/25/2024 to 7/31/2025, where that first low is equal to our current low. Now while I think it's similar nothing repeats exactly. However, the important thing that should repeat is that next week we should see a squeeze day up like 7/31/2025 did.

That should happen between next Tuesday to next Thursday. One of those days I'm looking for a squeeze up, which could hit the 200 day SMA, and that's around 5772 currently on the ES. That's the likely zone I believe, but the main thing to focus on is "time" and "the squeeze", as the next high should be between the 17th-19th next week. And we should have a big up day happen to shake out the bears.

Once it happens everyone should be calling for the low to be in and it's back to the bull market again. When this happens it's the last good short, which should feel like a crash as it's likely going to be a C wave, and similar to 7/31/2024 to 8/5/2024. As far as a target goes, I think we'll reach the 5300's, maybe pierce it? It should be finished by the end of next week or the Monday follow, so the 21st or 24th would be the target. Between now and then I'm personally just going to sit on my hands and wait for that one day squeeze, which again should be next week... and that's when I'll short the pig.

Have a blessed day.

We had a "pause day" yesterday as the market held the support line. We have the CPI today, so we could get a bounce if it's a good report. But I doubt if it lasts as there are a ton of trapped bulls in the market right now and the line in the sand for them is that support zone that we have stopped at yesterday.

If it breaks we could drop quite hard and fast several hundred points to one of the zones I talked about yesterday. Normally these levels hold and we bottom but the expected bottom isn't until the 14th, maybe the 17th. Then a bounce is expected before another drop into a low around the 25th, which could be a higher low or a lower low... I just don't know? If we take out the current support and drop hard into this Friday (or Monday) I'll have to think that the bounce and move down into the 25th will be a higher low. But it's too early to know that right now. Let's just see what happens after the CPI today, and more importantly, the close.

Have a blessed day.

I got yesterday completely wrong. I was looking for a bounce but it never came. We just continued to have steady selling all day long, and we still never had a capitulation move. This Friday (or Monday) is where the low is expected to be, but I have no idea what the price will be at? We are at support, but continue to go down steady, so for all I know we could crash into this Friday/

It's really unknown at this point. I had a FP on the SPY of 533.01 from last year, so maybe that's the target? And I had those crazy one's from the Yahoo site at the 483 zone. I mean, those are crazy levels to even think but until we get some type of massive drop to get the capitulation volume this market can continue to grind lower.

Have a blessed day.

Today is the day for the bulls to attempt to put in a bottom. They must take out the 3/4 and 3/5 prior highs, which is the 5880-5900 zone basically. I thought we might see that happen last week with a squeeze after the NFP Report but it didn't happen. Instead we dropped lower into a midday new low Friday before recovering some in a late day rally.

If that was an A wave then the sideways to slightly down pullback into the close would be the start of the B wave. Next we should see a C wave up, that that should be today, which is the bearish case and the entire ABC would be a wave 4 I believe, and that would leave a wave 5 down to the 5560-5580 zone still to come into the end of this week.

This is my lean as I just don't think the bulls can take out the overhead horizontal resistance today. If they can then we'd be starting a 5 wave rally up (larger wave 1), not an ABC corrective wave 4, but I don't think that's the case. My "best guess" is that we finish the ABC up for a wave 4 today, start wave 1 down of the final 5th wave into tomorrow.

Bounce back up some for the wave 2 by the close Tuesday, and then the CPI comes out Wednesday morning and we see the start of the wave 3 down inside wave 5, which should complete the wave 4 and 5 to end that larger wave 5 by this Friday. That entire 5 wave move down from the all time high will then complete a larger A wave.

Have a blessed day.

We sold off into the close yesterday as expected but I thought it would be just a wave 2 pullback, but instead we took out the low and made a new lower low. What's next? Here's what I posted in the free chatroom yesterday and I still think one or the other will happen.

"ONE is that we rip hard after the NFP Report at 8:30 am and open in the cash market with a big gap up. The top will be into Monday. Then we drop hard all week to bottom next Friday with 5500 possible. TWO is that we gap down hard (after the NFP Report) and hit the 5500's by midday or so tomorrow. Then we rip hard for many days afterwards (more then 2, but I don't know how long) with no bulls left and a ton of trapped bears. One of these paths is what I see."

I do not know which one will play out but if it's number ONE the rally will be short lived. Basically a squeeze into Monday and then we rollover again to hit the low-mid 5500's by the end of next week. Now if it's number TWO then I'd have to think the low is in for awhile, meaning any move back down next week should make a higher low.

In this case we'd see the low-mid 5500's today and a huge intraday reversal back up to close green. If we see this happen everyone will be massively bearish and will short every move up. While there will still be more pullbacks they should not take out the low from a flush of that amount today. Which one will it be? We'll know after the 8:30 am Non-Farm Payroll Report as that's where the reaction will determine the direction.

Have a blessed day.

Down early in the day and rally into late in the day repeated again yesterday as the market carves our a short term bottom before another move down. There was another FP on the SPY of 575.07 around 1:26 pm EST yesterday, which leads me to think we are in for some wild swings in both directions before we drop hard again. As I posted yesterday about the various upside FP's on the SPY I think we will see them hit and the downside one too. I just don't know the order at which this happens?

My best guess is that we go up to the 587.96 or 589.07 FP first (like today maybe?) and then down to the new 575.07 FP (Friday after Non-Farm Payroll?), followed by one last rally up into Monday to hit the highest FP at 594.22 on the SPY. That's a bunch of wild swings but keep in mind that the market loves to trick and trap both sides before another large trend move, which should be down hard into the end of next week.

I'm not interested in going against the trend, which is down right now of course. I'm more interested in shorting the rips to the FP's as I think we will see the 5500-5600 level hit on the next big drop. So, if we rally up today to at least the 587.96 FP I think it's a short to the 575.07 new FP, and from there we could (should) see another move up (how high I don't know?) which might go up to one of the higher FP's into Monday?

Hard too know for sure on that one, but if that happens it's another chance to short in my humble opinion. It's not easy when the market is in one of these modes but the next drop, which should start next week, is going to wipe out a ton of bulls.

Have a blessed day.

Another big flush yesterday, which got really close to hitting the 200 day SMA, and we bounced hard until 3:30 pm EST before another dump, but it was for a higher low. Ironically there was a FP on the SPY put out right before 2pm that pointed to that pullback low. So the market is telling everyone where the targets are at, but not the timing. Here's a chart of the SPY with the fake prints on it...

You can see the many FP's on the prior day as well, which I think will be targets for the rally today and/or tomorrow. I think we will see 589.07 today, then pullback some and then go for the 594.22 FP after that, which will probably be on Thursday. That should do it for the rally and Friday we should start down again. Target would be a retest of the low from yesterday but I don't see it hitting as fast as that move did.

Most likely it will have some up's and down's in it and the likely bottom will be mid next week. We have the CPI on Wednesday, so that could be it, or the government shutdown date on Friday? One or the other should put in the low and from the looks of the daily chart I don't expect to see it go much lower, which is why I lean toward a double bottom. The RSI is getting down there where we should get a nice multi-day rally, instead of just 1-2 day squeezes. We'll cross that road when we get there but I don't see a crash.

Have a blessed day.

WOW! I wasn't expecting that drop yesterday as I thought we bottomed a day early on Friday and that this March 3rd expected low was hit early, but some how they flushed it hard yesterday and put in a new low. To me, this extends the rally until This Wednesday where we could make a lower high then yesterday or a higher high, like to my 6040-6060 zone on the ES.

I'm not sure what's going to happen here but the market nailed the lower low on March 3rd and should be in a rally mode for a couple of days before rolling over again. Since that lower low took out the bulls that were long from Fridays low there should only be bears left and they should take shorts on every move up today.

So, "if" we retrace most of the drop from yesterday, and fail to put in a higher high, I tend to think that Wednesday we'll see a move up above Mondays high to hit the stops on the bears this time. That would setup a nasty drop the rest of the week... if this happens? I'm really tore here as the market tricked me with that drop, but maybe it's my own fault as I said for a week or more that the expected low as on the turn date of March 3rd, so I have to assume that we will rally up to take out the stops on the bears before we drop again, and that means we should top on Wednesday.

The drop reminds me of the 5/20/2022 drop, which was followed by a rally that took out the prior highs of 5/17/2022 and then a nasty drop followed in the next two weeks. This would be the drop into OPEX and/or the FOMC meeting 3/19/25, and/or the CPI on March 12th, so that's the window I think for the low.

And that low should take out the 200 day SMA, but for this to play out I do think we need to make another higher high then the high yesterday so that those bears miss the drop. This means we need to squeeze hard today and tomorrow and if we run those stops on the bears the market will be free to start down again into the next two weeks.

Have a blessed day.

Very tricky day on Friday but we did put in a lower low into my expected zone and finally ripped to the upside in the last half hour of the day. I was beginning to think we wouldn't see it and that it would happen on Monday, but now that it's broken out I do think we have seen a temporary bottom and that we are headed up into Tuesday or Wednesday before we rollover again.

Short term I think we rally up to 6000-6020 before we top out on this first move up, which is likely an A wave of a larger B wave up. If it happens today then I'd look for a pullback of some degree later today or on Tuesday morning, and a final move into the close tomorrow or early Wednesday for the C wave to complete the larger B wave, which could reach 6090-6110 on the ES, but that's really stretching it.

It might not make it that high though as I think everyone will be looking for it and we all know that if everyone is thinking the same thing it's not going to happen. The 50% retrace level is at 6007.25 on the ES and 6044.83 is the 61.8% level.

This month of March is going to be a very bearish month and the weekly chart is pointing down hard, so I think the bulls aren't going to get the move they want so they can short from the perfect spot. Most likely this will be over with by Tuesday, and that's especially likely if we hit the 50% level today and pullback into the close by some amount, as it's sets up Tuesday for the move up to the 61.8% level where the bulls will be licking their chops looking for the falling white trendline around 6100 to exit and short it. Plus, the bears will want that level too, but it's just too obvious I think.

It worked all of last year and into early this year as the bulls had the support of the weekly chart pushing up, so short squeezes retraced 78.2% commonly, but we are in a bearish month now and the weekly chart is NOT supporting any strong rallies, as it's very bearish looking to me. By stopping the rally this Tuesday, at just above the 2/26 high (6023) and the 2/27 high (6011), those bear stops will be taken out, but the 2/24 high (6067) won't be, and that's high enough to keep the bulls long looking for higher prices and bears will be afraid to short it.

It's the perfect setup for a top before the next move down happens with very few bears short and lots of bulls long. That zone of 6040-6060 on the ES is where I think this rally stops. I don't think we see it all today but by the close on Tuesday I think this rally is over with. I would love to see it reach the falling white trendline around 6100 but I just don't think they will give traders that good of a spot to short.

Time is everything and "time" will run out by Wednesday at the latest this week. The next move down should last into late March and will likely reach (probably take it out) the 200 day SMA (5753) on this next drop.

Have a blessed day.

Ok, everything is looking good for a bottom this morning and then a powerful squeeze the rest of the day of 100-150 points. We are into the zone now but I think we could reach 5840-5850 on the ES, and that should be it. It's a rough zone and my plan will really be based on a gut feel, but pretty much shortly after the open we should see the bottom. Then we rally hard, which will likely top next Tuesday or Wednesday. How high will it go you ask? I think somewhere in the 6050-6080 zone is possible, but I'll really just be looking for exhaustion and "time" to play out.

Meaning Tuesday, maybe Wednesday should be all she wrote for the bulls and then we should rollover again for the next move down, and I think it will be the one that hits and pierces the 200 day SMA, but that's yet to be known at this point. Let's first see the bottom today play out and the squeeze into next week.

Have a great weekend.

I'm still looking for one more lower low that takes out the 5924 low (ES) on Tuesday. I don't see it getting all the way down to the 1/13 low of 5810 as that's too obvious. I think somewhere between 5850-5875 will be enough to take out any longs from this Tuesday and lure in some bears.

Then I expect to see a face ripper rally of 100-150 points, which will likely be "about" a 38.2% retrace from the top down to the bottom that is made. The high yesterday was 6020, and that would be a magnet target for the rally into early next week. This assumes we get the low by this Friday, which I think is possible.

The expected low was for Monday, March 3rd, but if we reach it today or tomorrow I'll call that a successful hit as turn dates are always "windows" where it might happen a days or two early (or late). If we see the low hit today and the rally into tomorrow, where we reach that 6020 high by the close, I have to think we'll still get another pullback on Monday, but I don't think it will be any lower low but a higher low.

Basically, the move up to the 6020 zone would be an A wave and Monday would be a B wave, which might be half the move up? Hard to say for certain. But from there we could (should.. "if" this plays out?) see a C wave up into Tuesday or Wednesday for another hit of that 6020 zone, which I'd think will be taken out during that rally, but probably not by a lot. If we reach the 6060 zone it would be a wonderful short for another drop the rest of next week and into the following week. Now if we do not drop first (today or tomorrow) and rally up instead, then I'd expect to see the lower low move happen next Monday, which is the expected date anyway.

Have a blessed day.

The market fell hard on Friday after topping on Wednesday with a tiny new high. I wanted a blow off but there must have been too many bulls long to make it happen? Nevertheless the turn date worked as the market topped and tanked. Support is a little lower around the 5970-5980 area on the ES, which might get hit today or tomorrow.

This Wednesday is another spot where we should see a high. I wouldn't really call it a turn date, but a bounce date would be more accurate I guess? The bottom dates are March 3rd, which should be the main "lowest low", but with another one on Friday March 7th or Monday March 10th it's possible that the later date makes a lower low.

Basically, the low on March 3rd should be followed by a 1=2 day bounce (maybe 100-200 points?) and then back down into the 7th/10th for either a higher low (a wave 2 pullback?) or a lower low (a wave 5 bottom?). From that low we should start a complex rally, but I don't expect to see some straight up, non-stop squeeze like in the past. Even if it turns out to be a wave 3 it will subdivide into 5 smaller waves and those waves will likely subdivide too. It should be a choppy mess for the next few months before we see all the various degrees of wave 1's up and wave 2's down finish, and setup a powerful, long lasting, multilayered wave 3 up. The big cycles say this will happen from a low in May and last into August where we finally see a huge blow off top. I posted on X the following..

https://x.com/reddragonleo/status/1892204496500965533

https://x.com/reddragonleo/status/1892558260890120377

It turned out that it went lower then I expected and dropped faster. The bounce into the 26th is still likely but I don't know how much? If everyone is still bullish and buying the drop the bounce might be weak, and that will keep the bulls trapped with no way to get out.

Plus it will keep bears from getting a good spot to go short at, and by the time we finally bottom next week they will have missed it all. While the fact remains that we saw a slightly higher high last Wednesday it was still likely a B wave with the A down happening from December to January. That means this current move down we are in is likely a C wave, and they don't usually bounce that much... which is why I lean toward a weak bounce into this Wednesday. Either way though more downside is likely.

I still think we will see the prior low take out, which could easily get flushed by a 100+ points, and that means we "might" even reach the 5600's? I wouldn't count on it, but the 5700's seems very likely at this point. The "when" part is either on March 3rd or the 7th/10th. For example, if we double bottom on March 3rd at the 5800 zone then I'll look for the March 7th/10th low to be a lower low that take out that double bottom and probably pierces the 200 day SMA, and of course that would be a final wave 5 down.

Or, if we take out the 5800's cleanly and drop deep into the 5700's on March 3rd I'd then think that the 1-2 day bounce will be a wave 1 of some degree and a wave 2 down for a higher low into the 7th/10th will follow.

One way or the other we should see the double bottom taken out to hit all the stops on the bulls and to reach and pierce the 200 day simple moving average. After that the bottom should be in and we will see higher highs and higher lows going forward the rest of the month.

Have a blessed day.