Monday, June 30, 2025
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Is 2018 Setting Up A Stock Market Crash Or Inflationary Based Mega Rally?

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February 18th 2018

A Strange Pattern Is Developing and so far I don't see anyone talking about it...

It's been over a year, maybe several years, since I've done a weekend post and video but I feel compelled to share what I've discovered recently. It's something I hope doesn't play out but so far is tracking out day to day almost perfectly.

Of course there are just as many diehard bears out there that are still calling for a stock market crash today, tomorrow, or soon... just like they have been for many years now. And there's the mega-bulls that are looking for the DOW to hit 100,000 or some crazy number. Which one is right, or are they both right? So far the crash callers have been wrong time after time as the market just keeps on going up and up and up.

The market has changed a lot in the last 18 years I believe with computer algorithms making up 84% of the trading each day, and with the Fed's injecting trillions of dollars into the system with one Quantitative Easing program after another to keep the market going up. That's at least until recently as they are now slowly rising interest rates and attempting to reverse the money injection, which some say caused the recent 10.8% drop in late January into February.

Others say that it was caused because Jerome Powell replaced Janet Yellen as the new Federal Reserve Chairman and the deep state that runs the stock market didn't like it... therefore they decided to tank the market to punish Trump for his decision. Some say he isn't Jewish as well and that the deep state always put a Jew in office as they are "one of them" and can be controlled. I don't know what to believe about that issue but certainly the market was super overbought from a technical point of view and needed to pullback anyway. The timing of it was and still is suspicious.

Anyway, what I have to show you deals with "codes" and "numerology" that the deep state (the elite, illuminati, cabal, skull and bones society, free masons, or whatever name they hide under?), use to tell their buddies on the inside what's going to happen next in the market. Now a true member (which I'm NOT) could read these codes perfectly and know exactly what's coming next, when it's coming, and when it ends... but I have to just guess at it and use the knowledge I've discovered over the last 9 years while writing this blog.

So, with that preface I must add that there is a super computer "AI" (artificial intelligence... I call it "SkyNet" from the Terminator movie) that reads every post, page, blog, website, tweet, chat, etc... on the internet and if certain things are said that "they" (the elite) don't like then it tends to get no traffic or worst the site gets attacked by "bot's" to slow it down to a point that no one can get it to load where they can read. In fact, SkyNet even watches youtube video's and converts them from speech to text so it can decide again if it gets traffic exposure or not.

Therefore I have to be careful on exposing this information to SkyNet as I only want to help a few fellow traders by giving them what I've discovered so they can be on the look out for it and not get caught on the wrong side of the trade should this actually happen? In order to keep this information away from SkyNet reading it I've decided to password protect it and require a real person to login to my site to get access to the password so they can read it. I apologize to those of you who think is too much trouble but I really must keep this information only in the hands of real people and NOT spread over the internet where SkyNet can read it easily. So I ask you NOT to copy the text or the video and repost it on the internet. It's free to view for all, so that's not too much to ask of you I think. I'm also putting the video up on Wistia instead of Youtube so hopefully it goes unnoticed by SkyNet.

To read the rest of this post and view the video you must create a new account and login to get access to the passworded page... which is located here:

Is 2018 Setting Up A Stock Market Crash Or Inflationary Based Mega Rally-Part 2

http://reddragonleo.com/2018/02/19/is-2018-setting-up-a-stock-market-crash-or-inflationary-based-mega-rally-part-2/

The password is: 1987

 

ES Morning Update June 30th 2025

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So over the weekend I had some time to think about what would screw the most traders. A lot of other sites are looking for roughly the 5700 zone for the coming pullback, which most agree is a wave 4 of some degree. It's a logical pullback area as it's to the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement zone. But we have started the bullish period from both Seasonality and Cycles work... meaning I don't think we will get that deep.

The Medium Wave 2 pullback was about 50% of Medium Wave 1 up, but if the recent FP's are real "fake prints", and I think they are, we will only pullback to around the 23.6% zone. Ironically that's where the 588.79 FP on the SPY would be at, and if we do this into the 2nd week of July I think that's all the bears are going to see. After that I think we start a 5 wave advance for the final 5th wave up, and I still think it tops on September 18th, 2025 at 655.66 on the SPY. Below is a chart of it...

There are 2 levels below on the ES Futures that are "gap fills", and everyone see's them. Yes, it's rare to get them on the futures (common on the SPX cash), so they WILL be filled at some point... but when? I suspect they will not be filled until the big drop into October and for now we won't even get close to them. The nearest one is at 5715.25 from 5/9/25, and it's a little more then a 38.2% pullback (if we reach 6350 this week), but for all practical purposes we can just call it the 38.2% pullback zone.

It's a big magnet for the market, and again, EVERYONE see's it. So will it be that obvious that the market is just going to pullback to that perfect level to allow the bears a nice profitable correction, and the bulls a great entry long? I've never seen it that easy, and the FP's do NOT suggest that will happen.

The second, and lower "gap fill" is at 5339.25 from 4/22/25, and I don't think many traders are expecting it to be reached during the coming correction, so we can just throw that out the window in my opinion as the odds are super low that we'll see it reached this month or next. That will be filled during the September to October decline.

And I wouldn't be surprised if that's not the low for that correction. If we reach around 6600 into September 18th a drop to 5300 is quite a big drop, so there's no reason that it MUST take out the 4832 low. I'm not saying that it won't, as anything is possible. But if we are going to have another massive blow off rally into the first quarter of 2026 to 7000, 8000, who knows... we probably will just make a higher low then the April 7th, 2025 bottom. We'll re-evaluate once we get into October but right now I don't think it gets taken out.

For today, I'd like to see the FP on NVDA hit (160.22) which will be a great short for it (expected drop into 140-145 in a few days) and a likely top for the rest of the market too, like 618+ on the SPY and 6250+ on the ES. If we get it, we should see a fast drop to the 600.14 FP on the SPY into this Thursday for Small Wave A inside Medium Wave 4. Then bounce for Small Wave B into around the 8th of July, followed by one more drop to the 588.79 FP on the SPY for the Small Wave C... and I think that ends by the 11th. That should wake up the bears and put in the low for Medium Wave 4 down.

The Alternative...

Everything would be the same here in this alternative scenario as far as the turn periods goes.  We'd still pullback this week for an A wave, then do a quick bounce next Monday/Tuesday for a B wave.  The difference here in this case is that the C wave down (which should still end by the 11th) will be a much deeper one.  Basically one that feels like a mini flash crash or something.  It could drop to fill the first gap on the ES, or even to the second and much lower gap.

I don't think that's going to happen but we should just be open to something crazy to get maximum fear back in the market, which will be used as rocket fuel to get the market to rally up to the final high of 655.66 on the SPY into September 18th.  Maybe they just hit the first (higher gap fill) at 5715.25 pm the ES this time around and save the lower gap fill for the drop into October?  Again, I don't think this is going to happen but I'll just let the market guide me.

Lastly...

We need to pay close attention to the expected B wave up from this Thursdays low for the A wave.  If it rallies too high we could see the drop for the C down get pushed out in time for another week.  It won't be easy to figure out and it will be based on what (and where) the A wave down does and goes too.  I'm only looking for that 600.14 SPY level as that's a FP and will be support.

My worry is that the A down "might" wake up too many bears if it goes fast enough.  That would then drag out the B up in "time", so I'd prefer this coming A down to be a slow and steady one.  Then the B up I'd like to see a fast 1-2 day squeeze that almost makes a new high again.  If that happens it will shake out any of the bears that go short this week.

But if it doesn't move up fast enough, and lingers down around the low 6000's, then I think that will be a bear trap.  Meaning the market is just going to chop around for awhile to get more bears to load up looking for the C wave down.  If that happens it can drag out into OPEX in July and make another new higher high to shake out those bears.

Meaning that we might see 6260-6300 on the ES this week, down to 6000 into this Thursday, and then chop with an upward bias to 6300-6350 into OPEX.  Then we get that C wave down... which won't be a C wave if we make a higher high, but it will act as one and drop hard and fast to the 588.79 FP on the SPY the following 4-5 days.

Personally, I give it low odds that we'll see a long drawn out B wave up that could last into OPEX.  There is high odds that the B wave will be fast and end next Monday/Tuesday and we see the C wave down into the end of next week.

Either way though, the bottom line here is that the only move I'm interested in trading is shorting the A wave down, skipping the B wave up, and waiting patiently to see if I can figure out where and when the B wave tops so I can short the C wave.  Whether that is a short next Monday/Tuesday, or the week of OPEX is unknown right now... but again, odds favor next week.

Have an blessed day.

ES Morning Update June 27th 2025

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As get ready for a new month the market is likely to continue this grind higher into the holiday next week where it should put in a high on July 3rd I think. It will keep everyone long over the 4th of July weekend where the following week we should see the market rollover and start the much needed pullback. Not much to do until then I think. Maybe we will see NVDA hit its' FP of 160.22 at the same time?

I posted the below chart on X yesterday, so I'm adding it again here.  It's the big picture wave count.

Keep in mind though that the 6350 level is just a "best guess".  I could be wrong on it and we top this coming July 3rd for a lesser amount?  We are close it now, so that's not hard to do between now and next Wednesday.  I had thought it would be out into August to hit that level but we could see it next week.

On the SPX it would be around the 6200-6250 zone, and lets call it the 6300-6350 zone for the ES.  The SPY should be 618+ I'd think, and of course NVDA should hit its' FP of 160.22 for it to top.  It will be perfect timing if it all happens next week.

Have a great weekend.

ES Morning Update June 26th 2025

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I think at this point it's clear that the pullback into the 24th-26th area bottomed early with the low in the future Sunday night on 6/22. So there's nothing to do here as the bearish period has passed now. That doesn't mean we can't pullback 50-100 points here on the short term but we should not take out that low from this past Sunday.

From here until August we should go up, but it's most likely to be a grind-fest. The ol' summer doldrums basically, where we goes up 2-3 days, pulls back half for 1-2 days, and back up again. There's not likely going to be any good trades from here on out for the next several months.  Sure, there should be some short lived pullbacks but they will be hard to time and will just be a buying opportunity.

On a different note, I have a FP on NVDA from last year for 160.22, which if hit in the next day or so would be a decent short for a pullback of 5-10 points I'd think. Most all of the FP's when hit produce a turn for at least a day or two, so this one should be the same. Hitting the FP will run all the bear stops from the 1/6/25 prior high and the 11/21/24 high. Those were double tops at 152.89 and 153.13, so if we hit 160.22 I think all the bears will be taken out. It should then pullback to that support level at minimum I'd think. That's all I have for now.

Have an blessed day.

ES Morning Update June 25th 2025

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We grinded higher yesterday, which looked and felt like an exhaustion gap to hit all the bear stops.  We are now within a hair of hitting a new all time high too, but is it that easy? We have FP's showing up to the downside (a 600.14 SPY appeared after the close at 5:58pm yesterday), but nothing on the radar that could trigger a sharp pullback to hit them.

I don't know if they are going to bust through to make a new high first, and then pullback, or we see some surprise drop out of nowhere since the bears are now far and few between. Bears are really running out of time here as far as "cycles" go, and this week is pretty much all there is left on the bearish picture from prior cycles in the past.

Once we get into July it's pretty much bullish the entire month and into August. Sure, there could be some small pullbacks but nothing really big is expected. This market is really hard to figure out, that's for sure. You just can't predict what the next big surprise will be that causes a big move (up or down), but it's currently not going to pullback hard unless some news event triggers it. The next few days the bearish period will end, so if they want I guess they could chop it sideways? It just feels like yesterday was a big stop run on the shorts, and I don't think there's many left. So what's going to push the market up next is the big question?

Have an blessed day.

ES Morning Update June 24th 2025

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Looks like we have the breakout in play now and the market is gearing up to attempt to make a new all time high. I really don't think it's going to be as big of resistance as many may think because we are ending the bearish period and entering the bullish period now. Plus we've have several weeks of basing in a range from 5800-6000 or so, which means there should be plenty of energy for a strong move to gets through the high.

The 6250-6300 zone would be where the market could run out of steam as that's about a hundred points over the all time high and I'd say most of the shorts will be taken out by then, and they will flip to become bulls. We are not there yet of course, and we might grind sideways more after the current rally in play gets tired. But there's nothing bearish left now.

The weekly and daily charts have turned up from oversold on their MACD's and we are in a bullish period now, which can last into August. Sure, there should be a pullback at some point but we need to wait for the next "short term" bearish period to appear. For now though there's nothing to do on the bearish side. We are going up or sideways for awhile now.

Short term, we've probably run out of steam on this breakout and will top today and pullback small to base more into next week and beyond.  There's a downside FP one the SPY this morning at 588.79 from 4:00 am, so we could see that hit in the next day or so.  It would be a backtest of the Sunday futures low, but it would be a higher one then it was as 588.79 on the SPY should be around 6000-6020 (roughly) on the ES.  The Sunday low was 5959, so the FP on the SPY will clearly put the ES well above it.

Have an blessed day.

ES Morning Update June 23rd 2025

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On Saturday the US attacked Iran, which logically is going to cause some volatility in the market. Oddly, I don't think it's going to cause another big drop like the drop into April. Of course we had a nice drop Sunday night in the futures when they opened from the Iran strike news, but it hit support around the 5950 zone and bounced from it.

Clearly this market is not ready to go down yet. As crazy as it sounds we are likely going to make new all time highs before this market has a good pullback. Too me, it's looking like it's going to rally into the 4th of the July, but I don't know the target. Nothing has changed from last week, even with the panic of the air strike.

Today, tomorrow or Wednesday all the bearishness should disappear. We might have already bottomed in the Sunday futures? Hard to say for sure as these "turn windows" are not exact but a general date range when the market bottomed at many times in the past. Meaning prior cycles overlaying the current mark line up and point to this Tuesday or Wednesday where a low of some kind should appear, and then after that the market goes up strongly.

That "low" might already be "in" and we will only have a higher low?  When I look at the futures this morning they have completely shrugged off the bombing of Iran as not important.  I can see a wave 1 up recovery from that gap down low and a wave 2 pullback in play this morning.  I think we will go up today in a squeeze, which will be a wave 3 of some degree.

Have an blessed day.

ES Morning Update June 20th 2025

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Yesterday we got a pullback in the ES Futures while the SPX Cash was closed, and that pullback got pretty much fully reversed back up. Any move down today probably will be the last chance for bears to exit as it's looking more and more like they want to make one more higher high before we get the big correction everyone is looking for. There's just not enough time to produce it now I think as the 25th/26th is where the next turn date is at and I just can't see it dropped hard in 3-4 days. Unless there's some kind of "event" to trigger a surprise mini-crash "time" is simply just running out for the bears. Plus, the wave count looks like we still need one more move up. Below is a chart of it...

As you can see we could still get another move up into next week or even the week after. If you remember I did a post about a prophecy that said Japan was going to get hit with a Tsunami on July 5th (http://reddragonleo.com/2025/05/05/es-morning-update-may-5th-2025/), so while I pray that is wrong and doesn't happen, what if the market rallies into July 3rd to make a slightly higher high, then is closed for the 4th of July, and this event really happens? What do you think will happen to the market on 7th after it opens that day? On top of that we have Trump giving Iran 2 weeks to come to some kind of agreement. That's right into the 4th of July too, and even if the Tsunami doesn't hit what if Trump attacks Iran? What if there's a false flag on the 4th of July? I don't have anyone mentioning that but anything is possible.

If this plays out it will surprise everyone I think, but I don't want to see a Tsunami hit Japan, so I hope I'm wrong. But currently this market is not wanting to breakdown. Every attempt gets saved, so while we can still see weakness into next week to fulfill the cycle patterns of a low into the 25th/26th that low is not looking very like to be very much. It's not even looking like we'll hit 5800 at this point. I think at this point it's going to take some event to trigger a big drop, and until that comes over the weekend I'm going to be looking for only a small pullback into mid next week and another rally high into the July 3rd. Get your popcorn, hot dogs, hamburgers, fireworks and American Flags ready as it's looking like there will be a new all time high into the 4th of July.

Have a great weekend.

ES Morning Update June 18th 2025

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While we are pulling back some it's too small I think for the market to be topped.  This looks and feels like we won't pullback much more then 5700-5800 into the 26th and then we go back up into July/August for a new all time high.

Short term, today is the FOMC and it's normally bullish.  So I have to think that if we go down after 2pm from the first reaction, but it could turn back up into the close.  I still think we are in an ABC pullback but the C wave down is looking more likely to play out into late next week.

So today, from yesterdays low, could be the B wave up?  Hard to say right now for sure?  But we should still have some kind of pullback into next week.  If the Fed doesn't say anything positive that "B wave" could already be done?  If so, then we should start the 5 wave decline for the C after the meeting.  If the B wave is not done the we'll go up after the meeting for another lower high, and then the C down starts later this week.

It's a tough call and I don't know the answer, but we do have a C wave down coming for the pullback, and around the 26th is where the low should happen.  How low I don't know?  But it's not looking likely to go down into the 5500's now.  I think it will be much higher then that (5800's maybe?) as time is running out for such a deep decline.  That move is likely going to happen later, like after the rally up into July/August.

Have an blessed day.

ES Morning Update June 17th 2025

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The SPX Cash failed to make a higher high then last Wednesday, so the rally up yesterday might have been a wave C inside a wave 2, which could be finished now? Hard to say for sure but the roll yesterday from the June ES Futures contract to the September one created about a 60 point difference between it and the SPX Cash.

So, we now have a divergence between the 2 of them with the cash making a lower high and the futures making a higher high. I've see "the roll" be used many times in the past to do a stop run on the bulls or bears before a nice turn in the market and I think that's what we had yesterday.

It's frustrating to see for sure but that's how they take out the bears right before a big move down. This market is now going to go into the FOMC with a high it seems, and if that high was yesterday we could see some smaller degree wave 1's down and 2's up setup in front of the meeting. And that means we might see a nasty wave 3 of 3 of 3 (or something) happen afterwards. This week is still suppose too be the week where we start a nice pullback for a larger degree wave 2 down, and the target is still the 5500-5600 range.

The next turn area is around the 26th, so it's looking likely that we will extend into next week since this topping process has extended longer in time. Needless to say trying to catch the top of this move is not easy. I thought we would have already topped by now and would be going into the FOMC for a low, but now it's looking like a high is more likely.

Even if it's already topped and we pullback small into the meeting that's still considered going into it at a high as you have to look at the entire rally up from the April low. I've layered into 2 short positions over the last 2 weeks, and I still think they will pay off nicely as when the drops starts I don't think we'll get much bouncing until the bottom. I thought it would be a nice ABC down but with time running out for the drop it will likely be faster and not give the bears any chance to short a B wave bounce, nor any chance for the bulls to exit. It's more likely to be a one wave decline now, which again, should end next week sometime.

Have an blessed day.

ES Morning Update June 16th 2025

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We finally got a nice volume day on Friday as the market woke up from being asleep for weeks as news of Israel striking Iran caused a gap down that morning. While it rallied back up during the day it couldn't hold and rolled over into the close. It's looking very likely now that the top is in for the bigger wave 1 up from the April low. We should be starting the pullback now for the wave 2, and it's not likely going to end tomorrow or Wednesday. It should drag out into the next turn window around the 26th or so.

On another note, last Friday I posted on X a list of all the recent intraday FP's that have appeared on the SPY over the past 2 months. Those fake prints could be the spots where bounces come in at if we start declining more this week. That chart is below...

Assuming we don't take out the recent top of 6074 from last week we could see the 578.43 FP hit on the SPY in the coming days. That's roughly 5800 on the ES, and is support from the 5/23 low (5756.50) and the 200 day SMA of 58.35.70, which should logically produce a bounce from. Maybe it's this Wednesday, which is another FOMC day. I don't have a clue what Powell is going to say but if the market is short term oversold enough into the meeting it won't matter if it's positive or negative as the market will just rally from the technicals.

If we see this happen the rally should suck in all the bulls into thinking the low is in and that we are going up to new highs. I can't blame them really as that move up will look super bullish on the chart, but the cycles don't suggest that is going to happen. There should be chop or downward pressure into the 26th of this month, so while that doesn't mean we have to take out the 5800 likely low it does mean we should retest it. I think it will break and we'll get a flush out drop the the 554.13 FP or the 556.50 FP before the low is really in. That would be a nice ABC pullback for wave 2 and setup wave 3 to rally all the month of July into August for a new all time high.

And a move that low will make a beautiful right shoulder for an inverted head and shoulder pattern with the 3/1 low being the left shoulder and the 4/7 low as the head. It should get a ton of bears short too while taking out the bulls at the same time. Those bears will be fuel for the big wave 3 up into July/August.

Have an blessed day.

ES Morning Update June 13th 2025

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Yesterday I posted a FP on X that was from Wednesday after the close for 602.98 on the SPY and it went right up to it and went sideways most of the day. I'm still not sure if the high is in or not but there's not much left (if any?) in my opinion. Next week we'll see what happens I guess but for me nothing has changed. It's dragging out longer then I thought of course but the downside target is still the same and it should still be just a wave 2 that goes into the 5500-5600 zone. I don't know what will trigger it but I do think it will happen. I have nothing more to add so I'll keep this post short.

Have a great weekend.

ES Morning Update June 12th 2025

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Tough call here on whether or not we have topped. We might have but there's still a chance of one more move up as when I look at the possible wave counts I could say that this pullback from yesterdays high is just a tiny wave 4 inside a small wave 5 up. Meaning we could get one last rally up today/tomorrow that reaches one more higher high then the 6074.75 high yesterday.

I don't think we make a new all time high but anything is possible I guess? The market will be past the turn window of the 6th-11th (if that happens?), but "turn windows" are always just "best guesses" based on the past. If we get that last move up I'll likely add another short, but for now I'm just holding short from last week as downside target hasn't changed and still should happen in the next week or so.

The preferred low is around the turn window of the 16th-17th, which is right before the FOMC, but "time" is running out on that kind of move completing. The next turn window is close to the end of the month with the 26th being the ideal date. I don't think it drags out that long but it might if we make one more move up today.

Have an blessed day.

ES Morning Update June 11th 2025

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Today and tomorrow we should see the move down start. Either the CPI or the Job Numbers should cause the break out of this area. Keep in mind that many prior CPI numbers in the past have had a "fake out" move in one direction, and then fully reverses briefly afterwards. The low on 10/13/2022 was a CPI day, and so was 12/13/2022, so we "could" see a move similar? Hard to say for sure as most CPI's don't have a move like that. Most of them have a smaller move up or down before the real direction, which I still think we go down into next week. Nothing has changed for me. Yes, it's grinded a little higher then I would have liked to see, but no one nails the exact date and high but insiders, and I'm not one (unfortunately). Let's see what happens.

Have an blessed day.

ES Morning Update June 10th 2025

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A whole lot of nothing yesterday as the market grinded up a little but closed about flat for the day. The market is setting up for a big move and even though the MACD's on the daily chart are turning back up now the "cycles" suggest we pullback. We have the CPI tomorrow and the Jobs Number on Thursday... one of them is going to trigger that big move (up or down). I still think it's down but until it happens either direction could happen. Nothing more to add so I'll keep this update short and finish here.

Have an blessed day.

ES Morning Update June 9th 2025

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The market went a little higher on Friday, so my thoughts that we had a ritual number high on Thursday wasn't accurate. I guess it has to be a more obvious 666 or 999? Either way, nothing has changed. This week is still "the week" where we should a drop, which again should be a larger wave 2 down.

Target is hard to say for sure but 5500-5600 is my best guess, which is based on the FP on NVDA and where the ES/SPX should be at when that FP is hit. This should be over with by early next week. Once the FP on NVDA is hit the bottom will be in for the market and we should start a very powerful rally up into July/August.

It should be fast too, and I suspect we'll be a new highs into July and then it will grind slower into August. The most important date though will be September 18th-22nd, which could be "the high" or a "lower high"? Either way the market should crash after that... if we are at the 655.66 FP on the SPY, and/or already hit that high and have done a pullback from it (the A wave down) and are putting in a B wave rally up into the 18th-22nd. That's the medium term picture. As for the short term, I don't have anything to add. Again, we should rollover this week and start the pullback.

Have an blessed day.

ES Morning Update June 6th 2025

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We finally got the higher high yesterday as the ES Futures and the SPX both went up enough to complete a 5th wave. No, it didn't reach the 6050-6100 on the ES, nor make a new all time high, but that was always the "unknown" part. I said in a previous post that the market will likely fool everyone that is looking for a move to 6050-6100 where they could short it.

My thoughts were that it would either squeeze hard for a new all time high, or fall short of the double top to where no one will catch see it's already topped and they will miss the best entry to short it. And that fast spike high in the futures before the open did just that as it was too quick to catch and short for most traders. But it very likely marked the high for the entire rally up from the low.

Meaning the smaller wave 5 just ended, and that completed the larger wave 1 up as well. Why do I feel so confident about this you ask? I posted the following the chatroom yesterday:

"Back on 2/19 when we topped they put in a very obvious ritual 666 with the ES peaking at 6166.50, which stands out to me like a sore thumb as a 666. Today, we had a "not too obvious" 666 code. You have to take the 1 and the 5 in the 6016.50 and add them together. Then you are left with 666, so I think we have topped. 1:56 PM"

. I'll further add to that comment that the SPX Cash hit a ritual 666 number too. It hit a high of 5999.70, whereas the 999 part is an upside down 666 code. That double conformation to me that the high is in now, just like the current all time high of 6166.50 has an obvious 666 code in it, and it marked the high.

Beside the codes there are many technical reasons, cycles, and wave counts that say we've topped. From here going forward we should decline over the next 2 weeks to hit the FP on NVDA, which is roughly 5500 on the ES. When it hits I think the low will be in for the larger wave 2 pullback that everyone has been looking for, and wave 3 up will take us to new all time highs into August/September. As for this coming pullback, the next FOMC meeting is on June 18th, which is likely where we'll bottom.

Have a great weekend.

ES Morning Update June 5th 2025

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There were 4 intraday attempts yesterday to get through the 6000 level, which all of them failed, so I took a short. BUT... I don't think that the top is in for sure. If we can't get through support (around 5950 ES) today then I'll exit and wait as there's still likely going to be another attempt to get through that resistance. If it does, we'll see a strong squeeze higher. The turn window is still the 6th-11th, so the bulls are still in control right now. I'm just gambling a little by shorting early yesterday. Odds are I'll have to exit and try again in a few more days. Bulls don't give up easily, so at some point they will likely push through resistance. This assume support below holds and I think it will Let's see what today brings.

Have an blessed day.

ES Morning Update June 4th 2025

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Still waiting for a breakout as market continues to churn inside a tight range. While it could fail and just start the pullback without the last move up, odds favor the 5th wave being successful, and the time window is still the 6th to 11th. The target is a double top, which could be a slightly higher high or lower high. There's nothing to do but wait for this last move before getting bearish. Next Wednesday we have the CPI number out, so if we rally up into it that could be our turn date? I'll keep this update short and end it here.

Have an blessed day.

ES Morning Update June 3rd 2025

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Isn't it amazing how there's always some kind of event that happens right around an important turn in the market? This Wednesday, which is before the turn window, other countries will be submitting their best offers to President Trump concerning the tariff's. It's perfect timing for the final wave 5 up to start... if that's the event the market is waiting on? The tariff's have been "front and center" the last couple of months concerning the sell off to the April low and the rally back up from it.

So other events, like the CPI, Jobs Numbers, Unemployment numbers, and even FOMC meetings have been meet with a yawn. The event really isn't important as when the time is up, (for bulls or bears) it's up. A top is near but the window for the turn is really between the 6th and 11th, so if we get a strong breakout of this zone this Wednesday the rally is likely to last into the 6th to 11th before it finishes and rolls over, which if it's later (like the 11th) we should bottom in late June, not mid-June.

The price level is very likely going to be around the 5500 zone as that's roughly equal to the FP on NVDA, but the timing of it is still a best guess. Since it's likely that this Wednesday we'll breakout to the upside that rally could last into early next week and we might even see a double top? I don't have any FP's on the upside, but there are several price levels that will be targets. One is 6032, then 6058, and 6077... and above that is a new high of 6213.

Those are just estimates of course, but if there's something rally positive that comes out about the tariff's I think we can see a new high. If this happens we should finally see the "Fear and Greed" get maxed out, which it's not right now. I think we need to see it reach extreme levels before we can get the pullback that everyone is looking for. I had thought that we'd just make a slightly higher high and then rollover, but with this tariff event coming tomorrow I think it's the planned "event" to get the market to new highs.

Have an blessed day.

ES Morning Update June 2nd 2025

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This week should be the week where we see some kind of high in the ES that can be shorted for a good 1-2 week pullback. I don't think it's going to break the low, as my lean is still that we will make a higher low. My target is around where the market was at on April 30th, which is the low-mid 5500 zone. After that it's up, up and away in a wave 3 most likely. This coming pullback still has good odds of being a wave 2 on a bigger degree with the entire rally up from the lows just being a 5 wave move to make a bigger wave 1. I have a FP on NVDA for 108.65, which is equal to the May 30th level roughly (the 5500's), and that's another reason for me to think that's where we are headed.

Have an blessed day.

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