The futures are up some this morning but not enough in my opinion to get a squeeze going on the bears. This move will likely be shorted into as now there's overhead resistance just above. If the bulls would have gaped over it then they would have had a nice chance at getting a powerful squeeze going. But this tiny rally just isn't cutting it for me. At this point I'm thinking we are going to chop around for several days here, into early next week, to wear out the bears shorting and lure in the bulls.

But overall upside seems limited to me during this period and so does the downside. It suggests that the first series of waves down are done and that we are going to do an "up series" of wave for 3-4 days... but this "up series" isn't likely to gain much ground. So instead of your typical 61.8% or 76.4% retracement rallies we might see 23.6% or 38.2% into early next week. It should make a bear flag on the daily chart if this pans out like I think it's going to.

Then later next week I think we are going to take another large leg down in the market. I was actually rooting for the bulls here but the bears have firm control right now and I don't see them letting go anytime soon. I'll end it here to keep it short, and I'm exiting my longs this morning at the open that I took yesterday at the close. Happy Thursday to you.

This morning the futures are lower and have taken out the May 13th low as well. At this point the wave count puts us in a C wave down from the high on May 17th of 2882, which is where the B up ended that started at the low on the 13th, where the A down ended. The A down was from 2961 to 2802, or 159 points. If we take 159 from 2882 you get 2723 for C to equal A in length. If C only does 61.8% of A then that's 98 points down, or a low of 2784... which happens to be around where the futures currently are at right now before the open.

You can do more calculations yourself by just multiplying 159 points times whatever ratio you wish, but I'm not expecting this C down to do a 1.618% move of the A wave as it's too early in move down right not for such a bearish move. I think that kind of move will be reserved for later in the year, and it will be a multi-layered C wave down. This one (again, just my opinion) should do no more then 100% of the A down, and could fall short with just the 61.8% that's it's currently at right now.

I do think we are getting close to a bottom now but it might not happen today... maybe tomorrow? But somewhere between a 100% of A and 61.8% of A is where I think this C wave down will end, and then strong rally up should start. Since the move down yesterday was so step, and that it continued into this morning, I have to think it was a wave 3 down inside this larger C wave.

So the first decent bounce back up from it should only be a wave 4, and the a wave 5 down should end it all. That's why I'm thinking it might take another day or two for this to bottom. Remember that trapped longs will sell on the first rally attempt back up... aka, the wave 4. At the same time shorts will pile on that missed the move... aka, the wave 5 down.

One of the things I've noticed a lot is wave 5's that truncate short (fail to take out the low of the wave 3), so it might also appear as a wave 1 up from the bottom and a wave 2 back down for a slightly higher low... and that's the spot I want to catch to get long at. Hopefully we get that setup cleanly without all the trickier we've seen on the way down. Good luck.

The market are mostly flat this morning after a 3 day holiday weekend. The futures are still in this falling channel and seem to have created a nice looking "M" pattern over the past several days. If it plays out a drop to the lower trendline pointing to around 2800 would be the downside target. It's a small pattern on this 60 minute chart so larger time frames should over rule it if they choose to do so.

On the upside there's a falling light green trendline of resistance too that has been keeping the market pinned for awhile. A rise up to that trendline today would kill the "M" pattern setup... but again, I don't put too much weigh into it on such a small scale. However, resistance is resistance... so it could still stall out there and rollover anyway.

And since that lower black trendline of the falling channel is pointing to around the double bottom area too I'd have to think that zone is a magnet right now. Maybe it doesn't hit it today but if it can't get through overhead resistance soon then I'd expect that lower area to be tested by tomorrow. I really don't have much opinion on which way it's going to go today. It's the day after a long weekend and volume is usually light... which supports the bulls most of the time.

So while I'm slightly leaning toward a move down it wasn't high enough odds last Friday for me to take a trade. Thinking ahead for this week though I am expecting a strong rally back up soon, like to the 2900-2920 zone to shake out the bears and lure in the bulls. When everyone see's it and starts talking about 3000+ again I'll know the move is about to end and another leg down start.

We probably will go to 3000+ before this year is over with, but my thinking is that the current drop we had from the May 1st high to the May 13th low is just a large A wave down of a larger wave 4 down. The larger wave 5 up might not happen until late June and into the July and August, which is where that 3000+ should show up at. In the meantime we aren't likely finished with the larger wave 4 down yet. Basically I think it will be an ABC down pattern and we are in the large B up from the May 13th low. It's subdividing into 3 medium waves, an the medium A up ended on the 17th and we are in the medium B down now.

When it ends that's when I think the medium C up of large B up will take us up to the 2900-2920 area. Once that finishes the large C down should take out the May 13th lows to complete the larger wave 4 down. Then we do the summertime rally up to 3000 and beyond. If all goes well that will be a blow off top and what comes afterward will be bear paradise. Have a great day.

Yesterdays drop caught me a little off guard as I wasn't expecting such a large down day. However, it's fits perfect with a C wave down to end an ABC pattern down the high last week. Now it's time to start another series of wave, only up this time. But here's the big question... will the next series be able to take out the high from May 17th or fail and make a lower high?

If that entire series of waves down to the low yesterday was a B wave and the May 13th rally up an A wave, then we should be starting a C wave now that should target 2900-2920, or even a double top. This assumes the May 1st move down to the May 13th low was an A as covered on yesterdays morning update. Today I don't expect much action at all. The volume will get ever lighter throughout the day as traders leave early for the 3 day holiday weekend.

Remember that Monday is Memorial Day and the markets will be closed. Therefore I don't expect much action today. We could open up and just trade sideways all day long, right into the close. I'd be really shocked if we took another large drop hear. It's just not the way the elite like to play their games. A slow grind higher or sideways is most likely in my humble opinion. I'll end it here and just wish you all a happy holiday weekend. May God Bless you.

Yesterday morning rally held all day and finally has rolled over this morning. It could drift down to that "possible" FP yesterday of 283.95 before bottoming and turning back up but I wouldn't try to trade it. It does look like a wave 2 down or B with yesterdays move up an A or wave 1. So at some point today I'd expect it to start turning back up for a C wave or wave 3. If it doesn't start today then it should do so tomorrow with a gap up. I have to think that the upper black trendline in the falling channel is going to be hit at some point soon. Today it's pointing to around 2880 or so, which is around the prior highs last Thursday and Friday. The bulls really need to start a big move up soon or else they will run out of time and the bears will take control again. I'll end here and keep this update short and sweet. Have a great day.

Afterhour yesterday we had an upside FP on the SPY, which has been hit now in the premarket session. There are also 2 "possible" downside FP's in that appeared shortly after the upside FP yesterday. There are 283.95 and hit at 5:45 pm and 6:03 pm. The upside one was for 285.97 at 4:27 pm. My guess is that we bottomed yesterday at the low, which completed an small 5th wave down of a C wave of an ABC from last weeks' high. I think the entire move is either some kind of B wave down with the A up being from the low on May 13th to the May 16th high (where the B down started), or it's a wave 1 up and wave 2 down. Either way the next move should be an nice on, and it should be up. You don't know until it's over with but riding a C wave up or a wave 3 up is still a great one in my opinion.

Both usually subdivide into 5 smaller waves. So my guess is that the wave 1 up of that C or 3 up started at the low yesterday and ends at the upside FP, which then suggests the wave 2 down (or B) will pullback today after the open to the "possible" downside FP. It the typical pattern repeats I'd have to think we'll see it hit by the normal 10:30-11:30 time period. Of course it could take all day and close at that zone... no way to know for sure?

But I get the feeling we'll see those two downside FP's hit today and that will end the wave 2 down (or B) and setup a strong move up there afterwards. If this happens I'll be looking to go long as it could run for several days. Remember it's a 5 wave pattern so a wave 4 and 5 should happen at well. That pattern then will end a larger C up or just a larger 3 up (which suggests a larger 4 and 5 would follow). Either way it's a good short term long to try and catch in my humble opinion. Anyway, that's what I'm looking for today. Good Luck.

The futures were up on Sunday night as they were trying to hold the rising channel in blue, but this morning they broke down as you can clearly see on the chart. I don't really have too much to go on in forecasting the rest of the day but it kind looks like a wave A down from the 2882 high on 5/16, then B up for a slightly higher high of 2887 on 5/17, and now we are in a C down. This C down had a wave 1 down on Friday, then 2 up Sunday night and this morning appears to be in a wave 3 down.

This suggests a bounce around the open for the wave 4 up, then wave 5 down to a slightly lower low later on today. At that point I'd say the wave C down would be complete, and so would the entire ABC move down from the 5/17 high. Next would be another rally up that should again breakdown into at least 5 waves, and could subdivide into more waves. I'm not an Elliottwave wave expert so I'm just keeping it short term and simple to read. The bigger count to some is very bullish and others it's bearish.

The bearish folks will look at the May 1st top to the May 13th low as just a large A wave down and the move up into the 16th as a B wave... which would then suggest we are in a large C wave down that should take out the lows on the 13th. Bulls will say that the top on May 1st was a large wave 1 up and the move down into the 13th was a large 2 down, suggesting we are starting a large wave 3 up and it's subdividing of course into smaller waves... which we'd had a medium 1 up into the 15th, and are now in the medium 2 down, and it subdivided into a small ABC down with the C dividing into 5 waves too.

I have to just be open minded to both sides as I really don't know which is right? And I really don't care. I just look to try my best to catch a big move up or down, like a wave 3 or C of some degree. So I'll just watch today to see what unfolds. My best guess is again a wave 3 down here at the open, which is inside a C wave of an ABC down from the high on the 15th. After it bottoms (maybe the lower trendline of the falling channel in black?) I'd look to see if the bulls can turn it back up and start a new series of waves up.

The first one up and two down would be the test as I'd want to see that form to catch the wave 3 up of whatever degree. I don't see anything for today as far as good trade setups it looks like today will be used to complete a down move and possibly get the start of the next move up going. I'd again want to see that wave 1 up and 2 down form first so that I could catch the wave 3 up, which might not show up until tomorrow or even later this week?

The bottom line here is that I'm going to wait on the sidelines here as I'm not interesting in chasing a move down this morning after it's already mostly over with, or at least suggests it is via the wave count. There's nothing worst the going short on a wave 4 down of a C wave to watch the 5th wave truncate short and then squeeze the crap back out of you as the ABC down wave count ends and some new up wave count starts. Have a blessed Monday.

The market peaked out yesterday as I thought it might (finally got one right... LOL) and I'm happy to be short this morning. I'm not sure if we are going back up today after the open as that's certainly possibly with today being the monthly options expiration Friday... which means they will pin the SPY where the most puts and calls expire worthless. Just a quick look at the open interest suggests to me that the 284 and 285 area could be the targets. I don't see the market collapsing today though, mainly because it's (again) the monthly options expiration Friday.

So I'll look to exit my shorts and go back to cash until I see another opportunity next week. The upside still might not be finished yet... too early to know for sure. I've been here before where the first decent rally up from a low stalls around the half way mark and rolls over, but too many bears see it and short it, therefore it doesn't drop that much. Instead it just puts in a higher low and then makes another move back up afterwards to a hit the 3/4th mark or so... sometimes all the way up to 90% or more.

I could use the Fibonacci levels but the point isn't so much about a certain percentage but instead I'm trying to focus on getting the shorts to turn bullish on the next leg up. Where ever the market needs to go to reach that level is unknown but basically it happens after the first drop back down (from a half way rally up mark) fails to make a lower low... which I think will happen.

In fact (mainly because it's opex day) I think we won't even break the rising blue channel on this move down today. That's another reason to exits my shorts today. I get the feeling we will be going up early next week to a higher level to squeeze out the shorts. Only when they all become bulls will we see another more powerful drop happen I believe. Have a great weekend.

The market seems to be playing the teasing game getting close to the lower FP yesterday but not hitting it, and this morning getting close to the upper FP. Will it get hit today? Only time will tell. I do think though that if they grind higher today and hit that FP by the close then it's a short going into Friday. I don't know if it will be a big drop or just another one that stays in the wide range between this weeks low and high, but it should be worth playing regards. So today that's what I'll be looking for... a grind higher to the upper FP on the SPY and QQQ.

If hit I'll be looking to short it. If we don't rally up to hit it and instead go back down from here then I'll sit on my hands it's just a ping pong game from the high to low and low to high for the week... which is too hard to trade as far as I'm concerned. On a bigger picture I believe we are getting close to a strong rally happening but one more flush out to the downside seems likely first. If we can get that drop on Friday to final take out 2800 and tag the 200 DMA below, which is around 2776 on the SPX today, then I think we'll see a big move up early next week happen.

Will it take out the current all time highs and run for 3000+... don't know? Maybe, or maybe it's just a lower high with another even bigger drop yet to come shortly thereafter. This is what I'm hoping will play out but of course SkyNet might have other plans. It's been super tricky so far, and I don't expect that to change, but I'm hoping I can "tune in" to the manipulation moves for awhile and catch one of these big moves. That's it, have a great day.

Yesterday in the chatroom we talked about a possible FP being the upside target and I kinda thought the market might fool the bears with a gap up today but instead it gaped down again like it did from last Friday to Mondays action. But it doesn't look too severe this time around and it's appearing like it's going to back test a falling trendline and make a right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern.

I'm not a big believer just yet as it could just keep on heading south again but I'm leaning bullish here today and will look for the typical 1-2 hours into the morning session for a bottom. As you all know Europe closes at 11:30am EST and many times we see a top or bottom around that period as volume dries up. I don't think the downside is over with just yet but certainly a rally up for a few days is certainly overdue and should happen at some point. Anyway, I'll keep it short for now and end with that. Happy Hump Day.

Yesterdays selloff was a nasty one. Certainly acted like a wave 3 down of some degree. This morning we have the futures up some, which tells me the downside isn't finished yet as if they were going to start a powerful rally I'd think we'd have another gap down that get immediately reversed back up to trap shorts... kinda like December 26th, 2018 did. Now I'm not saying the rally up would be as strong but the normal pattern is an exhaustion gap down that turns back up and puts in a bottoming tail candle pattern for the day.

So I can only conclude that today is just a typical bounce day after a large drop day. How long will it last is anyone's question? Maybe a day, maybe two days, or maybe just the open this morning? That's not much help I know but right now I just don't have a feel for the market. I've missed these drops as I got thrown off by the first surprise big down day on May 6th, the day before the passport code. And if you really want to talk about the start of the move down you have to start the next day after the May 1st high, so SkyNet has done a great job of tricking me on this entire series of drops.

The only thing I have to go on now is to think that the 200 day moving average on the SPX will be the next big support area. It's around 2770-2780 on the SPX, but on the DOW we already hit it yesterday as it's at 25,346 as the close. So I have to think we are close to a bottom that should start a powerful rally back up, but whether it makes a new all time high or low high is still unknown. Basically I'm just waiting this out (as I missed the entire drop) for that 200 DMA to hit and turn where I'll start looking for a long. Shorting just hasn't been very good for me lately so I'll just focus on catching the train ride north. Good luck trading today.

The market certainly looks ugly this morning. First was the gap down Sunday night to the 2860 area, which was a nice backtest of the falling trendline that it pushed back up through on Fridays rally. This should have been the spot to hold and start another move back up from, but it gave way it seems and dropped hard again to a double bottom area now. I'm not sure what to think about this?

If you would have ask me last night I'd said the move up on Friday from the low looked like a nice clean A wave of some degree and the gap down Sunday night was the B wave, which would have lead me to believe we'd be going back up today for the C wave. But with this failure to hold and further drop that scenario is looking pretty weak right now. And if the bulls don't hold this double bottom area around 2825-2830 then look out below.

I'll keep this mornings update short as my ABC up to 2900-2920 seems to have failed (or is on life support) and the only thing left are crash calls and while I do think one is possible I wasn't expecting it for today. So best to just watch for now. Good luck.

It's funny how everything in life is the opposite of what makes sense. Like if you were to climb a snow covered mountain you would walk up it slowly, step by step, and then when you went down it you would go fast on a pair of ski's or inter-tube. In the stock market the opposite seems true as the market does a slow step by step move down and then rips straight back up out of nowhere when you least expect it. SkyNet throttles the moves down but moves up don't have a circuit breaker.

We are going to have another mega squeeze at some point but not today. I suspect we will open as usually (down) and the selling pressure will dry up by 11am to noon. Then we'll float back up some but most likely close red. Why? Because everyone is still worried about this China deal, which is what the fake news blame the sell off on in the first place. We all know though that the market was just way overbought and needed to pullback some. The news of this deal is supposed to be released after the market closes (of course) or this weekend. Regardless though of the outcome the market is now getting short term oversold.

So I have to take the opposite side and think we'll see a strong rally up on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday to end this current pullback. It could start right off on Monday if the news is viewed positively, or Monday could be that last exhaust move down from negative news... then the rip begins Tuesday. I wish I knew what was going to happen days before it did but I don't have a crystal ball or know a fortune teller that's real. So I have to just try and think like SkyNet and I think there's getting too many bears on board right now expecting a crash next week.

Therefore I think the opposite will happen as in order for the market to steal the sheep's money it has to trick them and put them on the wrong side of the trade all the time. Being short this weekend going into Monday I think is super risky. Yes, possibly the news of the outcome of the deal will be viewed super negative and Monday will gap down and go, but I give that low odds.

They tricked me this past Monday by putting out this China news over the prior weekend and then gaped it down Monday morning without me being short. They are very good at tricking the sheep, and I got tricked. Now I see everyone expecting the worst with this deal I have to think the surprise will be something positive out of it to cause a strong rally up next Monday. For this thinking to work I think we need to close red today, which it's certainly starting off that way, and then the bears should be fully loaded for a surprise squeeze on Monday.

If for some strange reason Trump does some tweet during market hours today, that is positive, and we get a mega squeeze going into the close today then I'd take the opposite side and think Monday will be a huge down day. Why? Because the positive news released to cause the squeeze will have been perfectly timed to get the bears out and the bulls loaded up long so SkyNet can pull the trap door on Monday with the bad news with no bears short. That's my two cents for today. Have a great weekend.

Yesterday we got our choppy day with close around flat. This morning we see the futures went down more afterhours but have bounced back up some too. They are following the falling trendline and attempting to breakout but have failed and rolled over to fall even lower. With everyone waiting on the China news this Friday I doubt if we'll see much upside until it's over with. If a deal is reached then the market could rally hard, but if not the should drop even harder. So how will SkyNet trick everyone before the news actually does come out I wonder?

Since these gangsters are masters of fake news I'd leak out an early report today that was positive to squeeze out the shorts if I knew the meeting wasn't going to get any results. Or I'd leak out something negative to flush out the longs with another hard "capitulation" drop today if I knew the deal was done and would have a positive outcome. Then a strong rally could start afterwards. Personally I think the market is rip for a large drop, even bigger then what we already have seen. So I'm looking for that "positive' news leak today to cause the short squeeze, then no deal on Friday and the market starts the drop. If we get a decent or really nice rally up today I'll be interested in shorting it going into Friday.

I'll wait this out all day today to see what the close brings us. I want it to rally hard but I probably won't get it as SkyNet might want everyone puzzled so another flat close would keep them that way. Some will be short and some will be long but neither side will really know the outcome of the deal and the direction of the market there afterwards. If you are a bull you'll want a flush out move down today and if you are a bear you'll want some rally up (both from fake leaked news of course). That's really all I see for now as we wait on the China tariffs meeting news tomorrow. I'm more bearish then bullish for sure as I just don't see any deal happening. Good luck.

Well, another Mini Flash Crash yesterday I guess as the ES Futures dropped from the Monday close of 2938 to 2862, which is 76 points in total. Today we see the futures down a little from the close but still above the 2862 low. I doubt if we see much more downside today as positive divergence has formed now so a small move up or seems more likely. I doubt if we are done on the downside but today appears like it's going to be a pause day or up day.

I was hoping the bulls would gap it up and do a strong rally to squeeze out the shorts so it could then rollover really hard tomorrow or Friday as the move up would be a B wave of some large degree with the entire move down being an A wave, which would leave a C wave down next. But if the bulls just chop around today and don't do too much on the upside or downside I'd have to rethink that ABC pattern and lean more toward the entire drop being a wave 4, which is either completed or will be today, possibly tomorrow.

Basically the bulls would be luring in more bears down here by chopping around today at the lows, and maybe tomorrow too? Then once they have enough bears short they start the squeeze back up but this time it's not going to stop at a lower high then last week to make a B wave but instead will keep going north in a wave 5 to make higher highs. For the bears to succeed and get another C wave down I think they need to see that strong B wave up to shake out some shorts first, and it needs to do so the day after a large drop.... which was yesterday.

The bears don't want the bulls to rest by chopping around for a day or two at the lows as that will result in too many new bears getting short, and that's just the fuel the bulls will need to produce a large wave 5 up that last many days or weeks, versus just a "one day wonder" squeeze to make a B wave up. The bulls usually out smart the bears here as the bulls have the Fed's protecting them.

So today will be interesting for sure. I'm rooting for a large "one day" squeeze as I'd like to catch the C wave down, but I rarely get want I want. More then likely we'll chop around down here near the bottom to lure in more shorts. There's also a gap on the ES Futures at 2840.75 from 3/31-4/1, so if the bulls plan on doing a wave 5 up next they will likely close that gap first and then turn up. Whether that's today or tomorrow is unknown. I'll just have to wait to see. Have great day.

Yesterdays drop screwed up the big drop expected for today as now too many others are super bearish I believe. It's like Trump knew the market was ready to collapse so he tweeted over the weekend the China news so the market would gap down Monday instead of crash on Tuesday... which I think could have happen if Monday would have opened up flat and went sideways all day to close slightly green.

Instead they reset the charts so they can make another push higher. All that is needed for another strong rally up I believe is to close red again today and tomorrow to lure in enough bears so that can squeeze the crap out of them Thursday and Friday and into next week. It's totally crooked, I know, but remember that the market is 100% rigged... and they want it to go up all the time. However, they must reset charts from time to time to get more fuel to climb higher.

Of course that fuel is bear meat. So they plan these one day events where the market falls off a cliff when no one see's it coming. They force the sheep to chase it and of course the sheep get sheered when they do. Shorting the open yesterday would have got you creamed as it rose back up all day long from that gap down low. While that wasn't a 100 point drop open on the SPX it certainly was a deep one. Maybe we call those kind of drops "Mini Flash Crashes" whereas a regular "Flash Crash" is limit down (which is a 100 points, and/or 1,000 on the DOW).

Regardless of their name there's been a lot of them over the past 5 years or so, and all so perfectly timed out. They do the Flash Crash and rip it back up at the open so no one can benefit from shorting it, nor can anyone short in advance as they make sure no one see's it coming. It's very frustrating for sure as just when you think you have a shot at a big move the game plan changes. They do whatever it takes, pay off the referee or umpire, injure one of your players... or even injure one of their own players to get a "time out" to buy them more time to stop the momentum that the sheep (finally) have going for them.

Anyway, that's just me frustrated and bitching because I didn't see that gap down coming and never made a dime from it. Today you can look at the charts to see where the resistance is at. There's a falling trendline now that should stop the bulls but it doesn't by any means suggest that there will be another powerful drop like yesterday. It just suggests that the up move should stop around there and rollover or go slightly down to sideways. Could we still fall off a cliff today via the passport code? Sure, but I'm not betting the farm on it.

Odds now favor the bulls. They just need to keep it weak for today and tomorrow to lure in more bears, which shouldn't be hard too do with all that overhead resistance above. My guess is that they drift down today small to close it red, then do it again tomorrow as well. But I don't see them breaking the low from yesterday... at least not today. I'd love to see it rally up out of this zone and close green today and tomorrow to do the reverse by squeezing all the current bears from yesterday and luring in the bulls.

Then it would setup a really nice short. But I don't see it happening as I know how rigged the market is for the bulls so luring in more bears to produce a stronger, longer lasting rally is more likely then just squeezing yesterdays trapped bears, as that might only produce a 2-3 day move up at best... and setup another big short. For today, if you are a bear, I'd go back to sleep. The bulls surprised you yesterday and got you all fired up, but today they will likely just tease you. Good Luck.

Sunday evening the futures gap down and this morning we see them barely up off of that low. Looks like clear signs of a top forming before a big correction starts. Will this drop get bought up and full reversed today like so many pullbacks in the past several months? Only time will tell. I've spoken many times about a series of drops and rips back up to happen before the next big plunge, and last weeks drop and rally as well as this mornings drop clearly qualifies.

I joked in the free chatroom on Friday that the only way I could see the market collapsing on Tuesday (picked because of the passport code) was for Monday to have a large "W" pattern happen to complete all the waves when referencing Tony Calaro's Elliott Wave charts, and here with this gap down it's actually possible. Still not likely but possible.

Basically this drop down would be his "Minute Wave 4" down, and a rally up from the open today to close the gap or get really close would be the "Minute Wave 5" up. After that another drop to retest the low, and/or pierce it would be his "Minor Wave 4" down, which would then need to be followed again by yet another rip back up into the close for the "Minor Wave 5" up to complete. Once that is done the entire rally up from the December 2018 low would have completed a large "Intermediate Wave 1" and a drop of 61.8% or 76.4% (or some other ratio to make a "higher low") would be next.

This would make "Intermediate Wave 2" down according to Tony's EW count before he passed away. Now Intermediate 1 up took over 4 months to happen from that December low so expecting Intermediate 2 down to play out in just one day is really insane. But the name of the movie is called "Non-Stop" and might just be referencing a crash move? We've seen "Flash Crashes" before where the DOW drops "limit down", or a 1,000 points in one day, but all of those moves stopped there and reversed back up afterwards.

What if this one doesn't stop after the first 1,000 points down? It's certainly a "wildcard" prediction so I'm not tell you or anyone to take a trade based solely on a passport code. I'll be watching closely today to see if Tony's EW count plays out with a "W" pattern today as I just described or if it takes days to weeks for that final Minor Wave 5 up to end... which is more normal of course.

All I can say is that I'm dreaming of such a move to play out and for the market to close green today so both bears and bulls are totally shaken out and/or fully confused. We need traders on the wrong side for a crash wave to happen, so bears must be out of the market and bulls must be fully long... which could happen if we rally up at the open and retest the lows for a double bottom as bulls should buy the crap out it. Then the rally up the rest of the day squeezes the bears and completes all the waves up from the December low. From there the market is ready and ripe to collapse on Tuesday. Dreaming again, but it's my story and I'm sticking to it. Good luck.

P.S. Strange coincidence I'm sure but we had a "Flash Crash" back on May 6th 2010... LOL

The last two days produced a decent little pullback in the market and it looks like a clean ABC wave 4 down to me. It held the rising trendlines of support and is bouncing back up nicely this morning. This 5th wave up is inside a larger wave 3 up and another larger wave 3 up (according to others that do EW better then me). This implies we'll need another wave 4 down, then 5 up... and then yet another wave 4 down and 5 up before all these wave 3's end.

This could easily push out into late May or longer... just depends on if these wave 5's up are the short kind or long ones. The bottom line here is that odds a flash crash next Tuesday are extremely low. It's just a dream as I said yesterday. These passport codes need to line up with other stuff to work I guess. Many wave counts need completed, technical analysis agrees with a large pullback, etc... and I know you might think that technical analysis right now suggests a big drop but when I look at the daily and weekly chart I don't see it that way.

Yes, they are overbought, but there's still room for them to go up higher. We're just not there yet. I want to catch a big move as bad as you guys do but it's just not showing up for me at the present. Day trading though as been fun for some I'm sure these past couple of days. Anyway, have a great weekend and lets see what Monday gives us. Maybe I can catch the next wave 4 down, who knows?

Looks like the market didn't like what the Fed had to say at yesterdays FOMC meeting as it sold off going into the close. This morning we see the futures slightly up, but basically about flat. I'm not sure what to think here so I'll just look for some technical setups to occur. If the bears can keep the market going sideways for several days, without letting the bulls get back up to yesterdays highs, then we'd have a bear flag formed and another drop should follow. How long does it need to form is the question?

Certainly today and tomorrow, probably Monday too, and maybe even Tuesday as well? Usually about 3-4 days of sideways movement with an upward bias is about all that is needed. That suggests Monday or Tuesday, and since Tuesday is the passport code it certainly would be nice if the bears could keep form this bear flag into the close on Monday and then drop it off a cliff on Tuesday. Odds don't really favor this as being the "big drop" down to that 245.29 FP on the SPY, but it's my dream scenario so just root for it please.

Reality suggests this move down is just some kind of wave 4 pullback and a wave 5 up is yet to come. This wave 4 down could have ended with just that one wave down into the close yesterday, or it could do an ABC move down whereas that bear flag I'd like to see happen would be the B up and the drop after that on Tues/Weds would be the C down (the A down would of course been yesterdays drop).

I think most are looking for the ABC move down to make the wave 4 and then back up after that for the 5th wave. No doubt this is the most logical pattern so me dreaming of catching another flash crash is just that... dreaming. Anyway, not much more to add then that. I do expect some kind of move up today, and hope it's a small one to start forming that bear flag. If large then the bears need to go back into hibernation again. Good Luck.